Russian A2/AD Bubble not as inpenetrable as thought

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citanon

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Unread post08 Mar 2019, 20:48

By now Russia must realize that the SAM aspect of their AA/AD strategy is not effective against 5th gen NATO air power.


Furthermore, with planes like the F-35 operating overhead use of their EW assets are going to be very hazardous as well. At this point their best strategy would seem to be focusing on long range strike missiles and long range SAMs to up the ante on the AD piece by burning support infrastructure and holding tankers and AWACS at bay. The last ditch fall back is their nuclear arsenal, which they are trying go gain an edge on NATO via deception and delay.

I think that last aspect is the most worrying aspect. Otherwise a country with the GDP of Italy can hardly threaten the alliance.
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weasel1962

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Unread post09 Mar 2019, 03:04

Its 4-1 advantage to NATO in terms of airpower. Again once basing is taken into account, the advantage is eroded. Airbase suppression is key for russki strategy. However if UK maintains its f-35b strategy, that complicates russian planning.
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weasel1962

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Unread post10 Mar 2019, 04:32

The thing about reports is how fast it can get outdated due to events.'

New S400 regiment to deploy at Kaliningrad with 40N6 missile
http://tass.com/defense/1047327

40N6 accepted into service in Oct 2018.
http://tass.com/defense/1026630
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fidgetspinner

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Unread post10 Mar 2019, 07:28

citanon wrote:By now Russia must realize that the SAM aspect of their AA/AD strategy is not effective against 5th gen NATO air power.



Still did not stop them from deploying S-300s to Damascus, and on top of that training Syrians to use them making it seem like they have confidence to put their reputation on the line. Think about it no Russians will be using those s-300s but soon Syrians and there have been many Israeli air strikes around Damascus. Russians like to seek profit for their SAMs I do not see the purpose why they would want to tarnish their sales to make this system look bad if they were not that confident to deploy the systems there in the 1st place. They still get customers (rich enough) to be interested in the S-400(Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, China and India) and it makes me wonder what would happen if Russia was a part of NATO(heard they have tried 4 or 5 times in the past) and there were no counter sanctions would their sales increase?

Long range air defenses have missiles for shooting down aircrafts but they are usually integrated with short and medium range air defenses while providing cover for those systems and those systems provide cover for long range air defenses all providing cover for ground assets, among radars, passive sensors, and EW systems you can even fly below the radar horizon and still launch missiles at a safe distance without getting hit without the need for 5th gen aircrafts while attacking non-stop. Air defenses are just built for defense. Wiki says they have like 2000 s-300 launchers, 300+ S-400 launchers, now if anyone has sources as to how many short and medium range air defenses they have or plan to have we should add this as well. Include all the 4th and 5th gen aircrafts(deciding to have stealth profile with internal weapons or not using external weapons) decide on the missiles and the plan of action. NATO can launch as much sorties as they want. But the next issue that the US and I believe western allies are being anal about all over the news is the Russians violating the INF Treaty by making stand off missiles passed a 500km range. I guess without nukes involved you can use GPS to achieve SAR resolution(they have plans launching new military sats) and OTH radars(you can space these out or include more radars to cover the blind spot of the other radar) using doppler shifting for possible 80m resolution(no sources on the Container radar). Than use these as sources to lob missiles. Lots of talks about producing more iskander, zircon, kinzhal missiles which can be used to attack air defenses and even air bases. So if anyone has the time and energy as to what happens if their was a full aerial assault can a countries air defense fend off an aerial attack just once and after 4th, 5th or refuel aircrafts land to refuel that's when they are vulnerable to being attacked by missiles. So how many of these hypersonic missiles are being produced and what number would be sufficient to destroy airbases and air defenses in Europe?

The questions I have here are the ones you should seek yourself to get more into depth on this kind of stuff.
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mixelflick

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Unread post10 Mar 2019, 16:08

I bet Turkey's experience with the S-400 will burst its bubble as to invincibility.

Even if it works as advertised, it's not going to work optimally (no integration into existing AD network). There will be gaps, and likely big ones at that. The real question is, what does their PM/gov't do when they realize they've bought a lemon?

There will be no going back (unless they buy the S-500, lol). Once they realize they've ostracized themselves from NATO, it'll be too late. At that point, the odds they get the F-35 are about as good as seeing Louie Simmons at Planet Fitness = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D95GhF5iMk8
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weasel1962

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Unread post11 Mar 2019, 01:37

Having served in an actual SAM battalion, I can safely say that integration is not as big a challenge as one thinks and a bridge can easily be built.

The real fear is that Turkey, who intends to co-produce the S400, will enhance it to target the F-35, which will effectively render an entire generation of US jets (with 25 years of production to go) less effective.

Its easy to say isolate Turkey from NATO. However Turkey already got delivery, operates and produces parts for the F-35 with access to software and has pilots undergoing training. They have an insiders idea of how the F-35 already works. If Turkey is barred from the F-35 program, one can be sure the tech will find its way out to the highest bidders. That's almost 2 decades worth of confidential partner info. Gungho folks will brush it off but it is now more a case of damage limitation.

Congress tend to use blunt instruments. The DoD thankfully is more subtle. As Steve Jobs used to say, if you're going to hire smart people, especially those smarter than you, don't instruct them what to do.
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Unread post11 Mar 2019, 01:44

The title says its all...

New defense budget request: $9 billion in emergency funds, cuts for Europe
https://www.defensenews.com/smr/federal ... or-europe/
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Corsair1963

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Unread post11 Mar 2019, 01:45

Honestly, I still think this is just theater and that Turkey will eventually get the F-35.... :wink:


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citanon

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Unread post11 Mar 2019, 02:10

mixelflick wrote:I bet Turkey's experience with the S-400 will burst its bubble as to invincibility.

Even if it works as advertised, it's not going to work optimally (no integration into existing AD network). There will be gaps, and likely big ones at that. The real question is, what does their PM/gov't do when they realize they've bought a lemon?

There will be no going back (unless they buy the S-500, lol). Once they realize they've ostracized themselves from NATO, it'll be too late. At that point, the odds they get the F-35 are about as good as seeing Louie Simmons at Planet Fitness = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D95GhF5iMk8


Effectiveness is irrelevant to the Turkish purchase. I'd wager it's purely political. Erdogan is afraid that the next time his generals think about putting him into retirement the US may not have his back. He wants a second teat to suck on.
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hornetfinn

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Unread post11 Mar 2019, 13:27

weasel1962 wrote:Having served in an actual SAM battalion, I can safely say that integration is not as big a challenge as one thinks and a bridge can easily be built.


I agree. Integration of such systems is very possible and has been done in Finland for example. We had 9K37M1 Buk-M1 (SA-11) and F/A-18 Hornets used at the same time (about 2 decades) and integrating the two was not much of a problem. It's just a matter of making some suitable hardware and software. I'm sure Western systems would be much easier to integrate as they have been designed for integration with Western systems. But integrating is still not that difficult, although it's also not a small task either especially with such powerful systems.

IFF will also need to be worked out as I'm sure that S-400 IFF system will not directly work well with Western systems. I think I read somewhere that Turkey intends to develop and install their own IFF system on S-400.

weasel1962 wrote:The real fear is that Turkey, who intends to co-produce the S400, will enhance it to target the F-35, which will effectively render an entire generation of US jets (with 25 years of production to go) less effective.

Its easy to say isolate Turkey from NATO. However Turkey already got delivery, operates and produces parts for the F-35 with access to software and has pilots undergoing training. They have an insiders idea of how the F-35 already works. If Turkey is barred from the F-35 program, one can be sure the tech will find its way out to the highest bidders. That's almost 2 decades worth of confidential partner info. Gungho folks will brush it off but it is now more a case of damage limitation.

Congress tend to use blunt instruments. The DoD thankfully is more subtle. As Steve Jobs used to say, if you're going to hire smart people, especially those smarter than you, don't instruct them what to do.


I think it can be that or Turkish S-400 expertise can be used to make F-35 and other Western systems better dealing with AD systems. Of course that would need Turkish cooperation with other NATO countries and USA especially. That might be somewhat questionable at the moment. I think all parties want to be in good relations in the long run though. I'm sure Turkey/Erdogan wants to show strength and independence, but not get too strained relations. For USA and Europe Turkey is too valuable in many ways and there will be need to keep relations in good terms.
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Unread post11 Mar 2019, 16:09

fidgetspinner wrote:Lots of talks about producing more iskander, zircon, kinzhal missiles which can be used to attack air defenses and even air bases.


Iskander is just a theatre ballistic missile.
Kinzhal is just an Iskander with more range.

Both still have to re-enter the thicker parts of the atmosphere where they will ALWAYS slow down to <Mach 2.0 as they approach a ground target. Those can be shot down with existing SAMs right now, so that's no real solution. Hence 'new-baloney' about the super-duper 'Zircon', that's TASS/RT/Sputnik vaporware. Brace to be ZirCON spammed for the next 12 months or so.
Accel + Alt + VLO + DAS + MDF + Radial Distance = LIFE . . . Always choose Stealth
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Unread post11 Mar 2019, 16:12

mixelflick wrote:The real question is, what does their PM/gov't do when they realize they've bought a lemon?


"if you want to live don't tell Erdogan."
Accel + Alt + VLO + DAS + MDF + Radial Distance = LIFE . . . Always choose Stealth
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sferrin

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Unread post11 Mar 2019, 17:20

element1loop wrote:
fidgetspinner wrote:Lots of talks about producing more iskander, zircon, kinzhal missiles which can be used to attack air defenses and even air bases.


Iskander is just a theatre ballistic missile.
Kinzhal is just an Iskander with more range.


PAC-3 can already deal with both of these.
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weasel1962

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Unread post12 Mar 2019, 00:34

which is exactly why poland got 4 Patriot FUs.
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gc

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Unread post12 Mar 2019, 07:45

element1loop wrote:
fidgetspinner wrote:Lots of talks about producing more iskander, zircon, kinzhal missiles which can be used to attack air defenses and even air bases.


Iskander is just a theatre ballistic missile.
Kinzhal is just an Iskander with more range.

Both still have to re-enter the thicker parts of the atmosphere where they will ALWAYS slow down to <Mach 2.0 as they approach a ground target. Those can be shot down with existing SAMs right now, so that's no real solution. Hence 'new-baloney' about the super-duper 'Zircon', that's TASS/RT/Sputnik vaporware. Brace to be ZirCON spammed for the next 12 months or so.


Just in, US has started working on ground launched cruise missile systems. Doesn't take much i suppose. Both the TLAM and JASSM has demonstrate surface canister launch capability. The JASSM-ER is more survivable, has a warhead that can defeat hardened targets, has a decent range and therefore will be a better option than the TLAM. Just stick them on army Palletised Load Systems (PLS) and they are good to go. Eventually, the JASSM-XR will enter service and provide further improved range.


https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4335 ... eaty-trump
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