Indian Mirage 2000 hits targets in Pakistan

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mair

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Unread post09 Mar 2019, 02:47

Well so far we have pictures and videos of :
-the newly crashed mig 21 in Rajasthan
-the shot down mig 21 wreckage in J and K
-the crashed mi 17 chopper
-an AMRAM 120- C missile

Is it safe to say that since no such evidence of alleged downed viper has emerged that the claim is bogus? Also this article is pretty interesting, since many IAF officers seem to agree with the premise offered by the Pakistani air commodore :
https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/03/artic ... stan-f-16/

Note how it’s stated that an AMRAM Air to air missile that fails to hit a target in about 20 seconds stops burning fuel and falls down intact. Can any f-16 fans here confirm that? Also, is there any ballistic expert who can verify if that was the case because judging from its condition it looks like the missile the Indians showed did indeed strike a target. It was almost immediately found because it supposedly hit a village, well Is there any photographic or video evidence of alleged village? Any crater at the impact site? Wouldn’t the speed and trajectory of a ‘dodged’ missile carry it pretty far away from the active battlefield ?
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pagan

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Unread post09 Mar 2019, 04:50

mixelflick wrote:
tphuang wrote:This is pretty amazing. Let's see what happened here even by IAF sources.

They had a mig-21 shot down.

They only got one shot off on R-73. The downed pilots claimed this manage to bring down F-16. Funny, since there is no wreckage. And I'm personally quite dubious of Mig-21's situation awareness when it's going down in flames.

Their amazing Su-30 apparently never locked onto any PAF aircraft to even launch weapons.

They got locked on multiple times by PAF F-16s. Long enough to be fired at.

They managed to evade some AMRAAMs fired at the edge of their range (rather than like within 20 miles which would have much better chance of success)

What's there to be proud of from IAF or Su-30 point of view? The flankers couldn't lock onto any F-16s. They defeated AMRAAMs at a range that they should be able to get away with. Those shots were more like hail marys than anything else.


Quite true (about the SU-30). It was in the mix, by India's own account. It was locked onto by PAK F-16's multiple times (not vice versa), and according to them, evaded all ARMAAM's.

So even without losing an SU-30, it wasn't a good showing for India's crown jewel of fighters. Now sure, nobody yet knows the circumstances surrounding such. But if they got locked onto by F-16's, the SU-30's BARS radar should have been able to respond in kind, but didn't. Was it effectively jammed by PAK fighters? Did the SU-30's radar perhaps have a malfunction? Nobody knows.

But I think its fair to say the SU-30 didn't have a good showing, and quite possibly a really bad one. How this is going to go over with Russia/other countries that operate/are interested in the Flanker is anyone's guess. It's likely India is going to be reverse engineering what went wrong (in the air to air arena) for a long time. And if it's true the Mirage 2000's/Spice PGM's missed, they'll be looking hard at that too..



The PAF strike package outnumbered the IAF planes 3x.

The first job of the defending planes was to defend the airspace and the ground resources. They did that very well with most of the package unable to get near their targets, and a lot of the smart weapons like H2,H4 bombs being dumped in a hasty retreat.

The top-cover F-16s were near Mangla Dam a good 20-30 Km inside Pakistani territory. They were not what the IAF was trying to get to move away. And they were not the top priority. Those F-16s were probably waiting for the IAF the chase the strike package into Pak territory to be ambushed by the top-cover.

We do not know when the AAMRAMs were launched. They could very well be launched after WingCo Abhi got the R73 on target. They were clearly hopeful shots, at the very end of the engagement range and in an AWACs environment to warn of the launch and a kinematically strong adversary, were low probability shots

And BTW IAF never said that they did not light up the PAF planes. Their RoE did not allow them to strike across the border or cross it (WingCo Abhi was warned twice but he had the F-16 in his sights).
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pagan

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Unread post09 Mar 2019, 04:57

mair wrote:Well so far we have pictures and videos of :
-the newly crashed mig 21 in Rajasthan
-the shot down mig 21 wreckage in J and K
-the crashed mi 17 chopper
-an AMRAM 120- C missile

Is it safe to say that since no such evidence of alleged downed viper has emerged that the claim is bogus? Also this article is pretty interesting, since many IAF officers seem to agree with the premise offered by the Pakistani air commodore :
https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/03/artic ... stan-f-16/

Note how it’s stated that an AMRAM Air to air missile that fails to hit a target in about 20 seconds stops burning fuel and falls down intact. Can any f-16 fans here confirm that? Also, is there any ballistic expert who can verify if that was the case because judging from its condition it looks like the missile the Indians showed did indeed strike a target. It was almost immediately found because it supposedly hit a village, well Is there any photographic or video evidence of alleged village? Any crater at the impact site? Wouldn’t the speed and trajectory of a ‘dodged’ missile carry it pretty far away from the active battlefield ?


AMRAAM.png


Red shows F-16 holding area; Green shows where one of the missile was found.

Blue are the civilian airports which were active at the time since Indian Airspace was open.

There were clearly two aircraft which went down; there is tons of video evidence.

Why the Pakistani side does not want to talk about the 2nd aircraft or the other pilots they claimed came down answers the question. WingCo Abhi was clearly in Pakistani territory; he did not go there without a reason.
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Unread post09 Mar 2019, 07:54

pagan wrote:hey did that very well with most of the package unable to get near their targets, and a lot of the smart weapons like H2,H4 bombs being dumped in a hasty retreat

....

And BTW IAF never said that they did not light up the PAF planes. Their RoE did not allow them to strike across the border or cross it (WingCo Abhi was warned twice but he had the F-16 in his sights).


So you really believe whatever your media throws around? How about some independent analysis/thinking too?

PAF intentionally dropped the bombs on empty areas, near some military installations. Why on earth would they drop them directly over the army bases? Lead to a war?

Second, it's a nice fairy tale that downed Mig21 pilot was engaging an F-16. He had to tackle JF-17s/Mirages of the strike package first, which he failed to do and was shot down.
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pagan

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Unread post09 Mar 2019, 08:29

viper21 wrote:
pagan wrote:hey did that very well with most of the package unable to get near their targets, and a lot of the smart weapons like H2,H4 bombs being dumped in a hasty retreat

....

And BTW IAF never said that they did not light up the PAF planes. Their RoE did not allow them to strike across the border or cross it (WingCo Abhi was warned twice but he had the F-16 in his sights).


So you really believe whatever your media throws around? How about some independent analysis/thinking too?

PAF intentionally dropped the bombs on empty areas, near some military installations. Why on earth would they drop them directly over the army bases? Lead to a war?

Second, it's a nice fairy tale that downed Mig21 pilot was engaging an F-16. He had to tackle JF-17s/Mirages of the strike package first, which he failed to do and was shot down.


Let me get this straight:

    PAF outs up a 24 plane swarm
    goes over the LOC
    drops bombs but not on target but inside the compound
    then planes jettison a lot of ordinance.

The question is WHY? What was the PAF trying to prove? That the PAF has planes which can fly??

It was funny for ISPR to spin the jettisoned weapon loads as bombs dropped without the fuse enabled :D

There are tons of picture of H-2 H-4 (on their launchers) on the interweb taken by locals.

There is ample video evidence to prove that two aircraft went down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAOdrIT ... tu.be&t=25 shows the first set of white puffs.

https://twitter.com/LastPagans/status/1 ... 3431959552 is the second plane going down (you can even see the contrails of the weapon which was used) AND the remnants of the first explosion (the white puffs).

And after announcing to the world that 2 planes and three pilots, supported by ample video evidence, eye-witness claims and what not, they suddenly says one plane one pilot. :bang: :bang: :bang:

The IAF is a disciplined air force. During the famous talk by the USAF Col after Red Flag, he mentioned that they never even once had a range rule violation. If the WingCo ignored two warnings of crossing the LoC he had something too special to let-go.

And regarding the original strikes. See the picture of the damage caused by anti-personal explosives from the Mid-East. Note that the walls are still intact.
https://twitter.com/Chopsyturvey/status ... 0183996416

And as they say the fact that the journalists were taken to the ridge but not the main building which was stuck, and the buildings have been off limits till its own story; just like the missing plane and two pilots which suddenly disappeared from the ISPR conversation in spire of the video evidence and the eye-witnesses.
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Unread post09 Mar 2019, 09:37

@pagan,

Too many fairy tales and fake news in your post to even reply. I give up.
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Unread post09 Mar 2019, 09:59

The joke in some quarters is that the Bikaner crash on Friday was an f-16 because it looked exactly like the one that crashed in Pakistan...
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Unread post09 Mar 2019, 10:52

It's quite amusing to read this thread - and especially all the discussion about the media, and its reliability.

The mass-media this, the mass-media that... as if it would make sense to discuss it. Also funny is widespread thinking in style of 'they fly F-16s so they are our friends', indeed, 'the only ones speaking truth'.

Permit me first to remind everybody that one has to see things within their own context. Pakistan might be widely considered an 'ally' of the USA, and yes, it's air force is flying F-16s. But, this neither means it's an ally, nor is Pakistan always speaking truth. Quite on the contrary.

Essence in this story on hand is the never-ending commitment of the Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan to supporting world-wide jihadism. Should this not ring any bells, try to find out who trained Ramzi Yousef - the originator of the idea of hijacking airliners and then flying them into skyscrapers and similar places, so 'skillfully' realized by AQ/OBL on 9/11. The ISI remains committed to support of such gangs until this very day, as you can read in studies like this one.

Pakistan is currently going through deep economic problems, too, as obvious from reports like this one, and this one, which in turn means its government is keen to distract public attention.

It's on hand that ordering the ISI to launch one of its gangs into another terror attack on India is one of simplest solutions in such cases. This is obvious from the lengthy list of Pakistan-supported terrorist attacks on India.

When it's in its interest, official Pakistan is ready to deny even the involvement of entire regiments of its regular military in attacks on India. Good example for this was the involvement of the 1st Northern Light Infantry Regiment in the Kargil War of 1999: this suffered 450+ KIA in that war. It took official Pakistan 11 years to admit this in the public.

...all of which means: the Pakistani government can't be sincere, otherwise it would have to admit it's supporting jihadists/terrorists. Just for the start.

***

Re. IAF air strike of 26 February: there are big discrepancies between what the media is reporting, and what the official representatives are reporting.

- Yup, seems it was the Mirage 2000Hs of the IAF that flew that air strike. That's kind of 'generally accpeted', but right now I do not recall any official statement in regards of exactly how many were involved or what ammo did they use. There are just 'assessments' by the Indian media in this regards.

- Target of that attack was a Madrassa (or religious/Qoran-school) run by Masood Azhar, the founder of the Jaysh e Mujahidden. Pakistan denied the existence of that Madrassa, but was caught lying by researchers checking property records. BTW, mind that Azhar was jailed in India until exchanged for more than 150 hostages during the hijacking of an Indian airliner in 1999. If Pakistan is as sincere, it could explain how comes it tolerates such characters providing religious teachings to anybody.

...or explain how comes Azhar remains under US sanctions because of his links to the Taliban?

- Results of that air strike remain disputed: sure, not only Pakistan but the Qatari and Western media too have declared it for a failure. It's not making things any better that New Delhi provided no clear evidence of success so far - apparently because of the failure on its recce satellite that was to take post-strike photos. Pakistan supports its statements with such explanations like 'there's no damage', 'nobody got killed', 'IAF scared away by the PAF'.

But, I do wonder how comes not one of all the possible journos supposedly 'free' to roam the area as they like, have found even one of 600 'students' from that Madrassa to interview?

...or how comes the photos supposedly providing the proof of a failure show the main building having four big holes in its roof? Perhaps every house in Pakistan has big holes in its roof...?

...and I wonder how comes one can find the 'official' statement by Maulana Ammar, Masood Azhar's younger brother, complaining that Indians destroyed their Madrassa, complaining about the Pakistani media and Pakistan Army's 'lies'...?

...why did the Pakistan subsequently arrest 44 members of the JEM...?

...or how comes the the locals are complaining about a 'media blackout' (in Pakistan)...?

***

Re. air combat from the morning of 27 February: there is an endless mass of claims.

All that can be considered as 'confirmed' is:

- 1 MiG-21 crashed inside the Pakistan-controlled Kashmir
- 1 AIM-120 (i.e. its wreckage) was found inside India-controlled Kashmir
- Pakistan stated (officially) 'no F-16s were used', which is an obvious lie, because no other PAF aircraft but F-16s can deploy AIM-120s.
- PAF has officially credited two of its pilots with aerial victories (their names are mentioned in this report, too). It's unclear what did they fly on that morning.
- New Delhi officially credited its MiG-21-pilot with an F-16-kill.

That said, several videos taken by Pakistani nationals cite two or even three 'parachutists', i.e. pilots that ejected. Indeed, even this man who was involved in the arrest of the Indian MiG-21-pilot says there were 'two parachutes'.

...how comes if the IAF lost no other jets, and the PAF lost no jets at all - as New Delhi and Islamabad insist, respectively?

IMHO, discussing anything beyond these points makes actually no sense. But, should there be questions... well, let me know.
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Shimud

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Unread post09 Mar 2019, 11:55

tomcooper wrote:It's quite amusing to read this thread ... well, let me know.


Pertinent to mention that the disputed territory of Kashmir is the crux of problem.
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Unread post09 Mar 2019, 12:25

Far from that. What Pakistan is doing is since longer not related to Kashmir any more.
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mair

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Unread post09 Mar 2019, 13:53

Tom cooper I like how most of what you have linked and referenced is from twitter, Facebook and YouTube. Where you can also find similar information claiming that the Earth is flat.

It’s a very long and complicated debate about Pakistan and the existence of militant groups over there and in Afghanistan, and we can get into that, but it’s not really the topic of this thread now is it?
But I will say this much: Pakistan’s prime minister Imran khan asked the Indians to share any information that they had about any alleged terrorists operating in Pakistani soil BEFORE the 26th which India refused to do. But after the 27th Pakistan was handed over a dossier by India containing said info . So it’s natural that they would act against those 44 individuals now.
Also officially Pakistan has banned the JeM since 2002, there may well have been rogue members of the ISI supporting them but it wasn’t even known to most Pakistani army officials, let alone government or civilians.

Now getting back to the topic.
Can you provide proof of any journalists being denied access to alleged Balakot camp area? Because I have not heard any independent news media like the BBC, Al Jazeera, the guardian etc making such a claim. Please don’t link some random persons social media account as ‘proof’.

Are 4 ‘big holes’ evidence of a successful hit? It was a 1000kg bomb, those buildings shouldn’t have been left standing unless of course they were made of some as yet undiscovered ballistic resistant materials.

Won’t respond to the rest of your post, they are just biased opinions and links to twitter and Facebook as ‘evidence’.(or Indian media reports, that have every reason to be biased).
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Unread post09 Mar 2019, 14:18

We have no evidence an AIM-120 or R-73 hit anything. The smoke trails actually look like they came from the ground and not aircraft.
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Unread post09 Mar 2019, 15:05

To me, the parachute evidence is the best indicator that multiple jets were shot down, not just an IAF Mig-21.

Whose jet(s) those were, will probably be debated for a long time. I stand by my assertion though it was a sub-par showing for the SU-30. Getting locked up by F-16's and having to dodge AMRAAM's (both per the IAF) with no offense of their own has to be concerning.

They're thought to be the dominant fighter in the region, and they were anything but dominant that day..
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Unread post09 Mar 2019, 15:40

mixelflick wrote:To me, the parachute evidence is the best indicator that multiple jets were shot down, not just an IAF Mig-21.

Whose jet(s) those were, will probably be debated for a long time. I stand by my assertion though it was a sub-par showing for the SU-30. Getting locked up by F-16's and having to dodge AMRAAM's (both per the IAF) with no offense of their own has to be concerning.

They're thought to be the dominant fighter in the region, and they were anything but dominant that day..


Ok but what does that say about the F-16 that was locked up by the MiG-21? The F-16 apparently had to dodge an R-73.
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Unread post09 Mar 2019, 16:19

Says the pilot could have done a better job. In all candor, with HOBS missiles today ANY aircraft (even an F-22) that gets info a furball risks getting locked up, shot down and the pilot lucky if he's in his chute.

I guess the most telling thing in this whole saga was the Indian PM's recent comments..

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday accused the Opposition of playing politics over the Rafale deal, saying the entire country was now feeling the need of these fighter planes.

“The country has felt the shortage of Rafale jets. Today, India is asking in one voice what could have happened if we had Rafale. First selfish policies and then politics over the Rafale deal have harmed the nation,” Modi said at the India Today Conclave in the national capital."

When your PM is using words like this to describe the air skirmishes you just fought, it doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Frankly, he sounds like he's had some sobering de-briefs...
Last edited by mixelflick on 09 Mar 2019, 16:21, edited 1 time in total.
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