SU-57: On hold for a decade

madrat · by **madrat** » 14 Aug 2018, 23:06

Gripen C is probably more than an adequate option if they care to risk F404 technology.

Corsair1963 · by **Corsair1963** » 15 Aug 2018, 00:19

madrat wrote:Gripen C is probably more than an adequate option if they care to risk F404 technology.

I was thinking the same thing and the US likely would allow it....Hell, the Gripen NG (JAS-39E) may even be an option???

popcorn · by **popcorn** » 15 Aug 2018, 01:53

lrrpf52 wrote:
popcorn wrote:Has any country ever achieved military greatness without first undergoing a major trial by fire against a superior combat-proven adversary and emerge victorious at the first attempt?

Continental Army under Washington comes to mind.

By all metrics, they should have been easily defeated.

Yeah, eventually they triumphed after a bloody learning curve. I was thinking in the context of modern Hi-Tech warfare where wars will likely be shorter and extremely brutal on men and equipment. May not have the luxury of time to learn from experience because you're dead.

mixelflick · by **mixelflick** » 15 Aug 2018, 13:52

popcorn wrote:
lrrpf52 wrote:
popcorn wrote:Has any country ever achieved military greatness without first undergoing a major trial by fire against a superior combat-proven adversary and emerge victorious at the first attempt?

Continental Army under Washington comes to mind.

By all metrics, they should have been easily defeated.

Yeah, eventually they triumphed after a bloody learning curve. I was thinking in the context of modern Hi-Tech warfare where wars will likely be shorter and extremely brutal on men and equipment. May not have the luxury of time to learn from experience because you're dead.

And this is the big wildcard with Russia and China - they're not combat proven forces. The whole world watched as the US and her allies dismantled Iraq in record time during DS. The US military put on an amazing display of high tech, precision guided munitions and stealth technology. Then came 17 years of low intensity conflicts across the globe and even more combat tested platforms and people.

China and Russia cannot say this. Russia in Syria comes close, but what have their weapons systems really accomplished there? No SU-35 (or other platform) has shot in anger air to air. True, some dumb bombs and smart cruise missiles have been used, but it's not like it's been on any large scale. China last fought a major war, when? Sure they're modernizing, but I see no scenario where any of its equipment has been combat tested.

Anyway, the SU-57 (which I will henceforth refer to as the PAK FA) is going nowhere fast. They attempted to field a stealth bird and thus far, have little to show for it. 12 aircraft isn't a squadron, it's an experiment. They will likely persist though, the same way they did with the T-10 airframe. But the PAK FA isn't a T-10, and it's going to be a bear to mass produce if it ever gets to that stage. By the time it is ready, it will likely be obsolete and foreign operators will find it quite inferior to the F-35's tech (if any foreign country bites). Do or die time for Russian aerospace...

element1loop · by **element1loop** » 15 Aug 2018, 16:31

I remember saying to a forum in about 2007 that Russia would probably end up just remanufacturing moderised Fulcrums and Flankers. Most thought not and some quite scathingly. But mosty that's all they've done.

And for most of the past ten years I've thought Russia must be foxing with the T50 design. This can't be it, this is what they want to field? Shirley not!? So I thought they must have another prototype design, one that we haven't seen yet. But it's become clear there isn't.

The relative stability (or not) of economics decided their airforce, and its obsolescence level, and that's a critical point to remember, imo.

SpudmanWP · by **SpudmanWP** » 15 Aug 2018, 21:35

Don't forget the newer AdvEOTS, OLED HMDS, new main display, etc

mixelflick · by **mixelflick** » 16 Aug 2018, 14:27

lrrpf52 wrote:It makes sense for them to slow-roll it right now while doing everything in their power to get more data from JSF program, especially how we cracked the code on systems integration with common software interface architecture, and connectivity with other nodes in the net.

They will also do everything they can to G2 our RAM and structures even more, as well as how we pulled off the IR and MWIR spectrum signature reduction, and slowly try to incorporate these features into the Su-57.

By the time they have a semi-mature model nailed down, we'll be well into Block 4 and PCA prototypes flying.

There will be 800+ F-35As and Bs by that point, and 300 F-35Cs with squadrons that already have a decade of deployment and training experiences. There will be the F135-PW-XXX Enhanced Performance Engine, with GaN TRM-equipped APG-81(V)X AESAs being introduced after the ODT&E program, and the newer EODAS.

We'll be looking at a more diverse assortment of 5th Gen weapons as well, while the Russians are running around wondering how to re-tool the Sukhoi production line set-up and subcontractor sourcing schedule nightmare.

A good lesson in how playing catch up is the more expensive option. Literally and figuratively..

tphuang · by **tphuang** » 19 Aug 2018, 21:45

talkitron wrote:The Vietnam People's Air Force has 47 Flankers: 11 Su-27 and 36 Su-30MK2V according to Wikipedia. This force is not going to defeat a major Chinese attack but might generate some deterrence.

Despite China being the main high end antagonist of Vietnam, the Su-30MK2V is based on the Su-30MK2 version exported to China for the maritime strike role. This is fairly up to date as Flanker variants go. These variants are from the KnAAPO plant in far eastern Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-30MKK

No, they won't. Here is the thing. Training and practices do matter. China has its own version of red flag vs blue flag exercises every year. Everything in PLAAF by this point would have trained to death against other types of aircraft. They would have a pretty good idea of the tactics to employ and how to use the AWACS and other surveillance aircraft and radar to track something like Su-30 or anything in flanker series. In a few years, pilots flying J-20 or even J-10s in PLAAF would have full knowledge of the best practices in countering Su-30/35s and they would be no such knowledge on the Vietnam side. I would be surprised if Vietnam air force shoots down more than a couple of Chinese fighter jets in any large scale combat.

This is why I'm continuously baffled IAF thinks their best answer against J-20 is those Su-30MKIs. Any air force planning against Chinese force should get F-35s as fast as they can. If they can't get F-35s, get eurocanards or F-18s.

element1loop · by **element1loop** » 20 Aug 2018, 03:24

tphuang wrote:This is why I'm continuously baffled IAF thinks their best answer against J-20 is those Su-30MKIs. Any air force planning against Chinese force should get F-35s as fast as they can. If they can't get F-35s, get eurocanards or F-18s.

and/or/else ...

Begin to align and interoperate more closely with those who do, to build trust, capability, and build further towards better access.

Although there's belated improvements in that area of late, it's a minimum level a few countries could be rolling on more already. They've got to get the whole topic out of the back-rooms and rolling.