The way to stop China

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milosh

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Unread post27 Jun 2022, 17:32

loke wrote:I am glad to hear that China will try to resolve this without launching a war.


Probably counting on Taiwan to change opinion after US collapse. US look more and more as good old USSR when it's decline begin. Rulled by old folks, with very divided society in case of USSR it was nations in case of US it is conservatives and liberals. And don't forget economic problems with competition which is stronger by each day.

loke wrote:Any thoughts on why China recently declared Taiwan strait being not international waters? I mean, are there any particular reasons why this was done now?


Maybe as answer to AUKUS.
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tphuang

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Unread post27 Jun 2022, 19:08

loke wrote:
tphuang wrote:But above all, China will try to resolve this issue without ever firing a shot. China does not want to lose its economic relationship with the West. Unless Taiwan declares independence, I don't think you will see China invade Taiwan until the military gap is so wide that Taiwanese military admits it can't defend itself. At which point, China will try to negotiate some kind of settlement with a pro-mainland government in Taiwan.

I am glad to hear that China will try to resolve this without launching a war. At the same time, I wonder how easy it will be to negotiate Taiwan's surrender (which it would be) after China broke their promise to HK about "one country, two systems". That was kind of the whole basis for many Taiwanese being positive to considering an agreement with China. With that out the window, I suspect it will be very hard to find a "compromise" that Taiwan actually could trust.

Any thoughts on why China recently declared Taiwan strait being not international waters? I mean, are there any particular reasons why this was done now?


Hi there, I would recommend listening to this lecture by John Mearsheimer. I pretty much have to agree with everything he says there about what China/America are trying to do. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFKH4Frn_QI

China wants to be the hegemon of its surrounding area and America wants to make sure that China does not.

If left unchecked, I would say that China can probably achieve all its goals in East/Southeast Asia without ever firing a gun. At certain point, if it has 10 super carriers all parked around SCS and westpac and is supplying weapons and advanced technology to everyone around it, there is really not a lot of room left for America.

So, I wouldn't be too concerned about China declaring "Taiwan strait not being international waters". Nothing has changed policy wise. The bigger issue is the so called "China containment strategy". Whether or not it's tolerable for American policy makers that China achieves hegemony in that area through peaceful means. If you are China, these are really dangerous years, because you are strong enough to really scare American security establishment, but not strong enough that you would want a war with America. So, all this talk about China fight America in the 2025 to 2030 timeframe doesn't make sense to me. If USN decides to permanently station 4 CSGs between Japan/Guam/Pearl that can be surged/fully activated in 2 months, that would be something American can probably sustain at very high cost. That would be something China doesn't want to encounter in the next 5 year.

so if the following is how American security establishment look at the China/Asia situation. And I guarantee you that Chinese intelligence are looking at these things carefully. They'd be very concerned that America might try to attack China before the odds are too much in China's favor. So, this is a scary 10 years ahead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCRMwwT_2VY
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disconnectedradical

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Unread post27 Jun 2022, 19:21

tphuang wrote:Hi there, I would recommend listening to this lecture by John Mearsheimer. I pretty much have to agree with everything he says there about what China/America are trying to do. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFKH4Frn_QI

China wants to be the hegemon of its surrounding area and America wants to make sure that China does not.

If left unchecked, I would say that China can probably achieve all its goals in East/Southeast Asia without ever firing a gun. At certain point, if it has 10 super carriers all parked around SCS and westpac and is supplying weapons and advanced technology to everyone around it, there is really not a lot of room left for America.

So, I wouldn't be too concerned about China declaring "Taiwan strait not being international waters". Nothing has changed policy wise. The bigger issue is the so called "China containment strategy". Whether or not it's tolerable for American policy makers that China achieves hegemony in that area through peaceful means. If you are China, these are really dangerous years, because you are strong enough to really scare American security establishment, but not strong enough that you would want a war with America. So, all this talk about China fight America in the 2025 to 2030 timeframe doesn't make sense to me. If USN decides to permanently station 4 CSGs between Japan/Guam/Pearl that can be surged/fully activated in 2 months, that would be something American can probably sustain at very high cost. That would be something China doesn't want to encounter in the next 5 year.

so if the following is how American security establishment look at the China/Asia situation. And I guarantee you that Chinese intelligence are looking at these things carefully. They'd be very concerned that America might try to attack China before the odds are too much in China's favor. So, this is a scary 10 years ahead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCRMwwT_2VY


I frankly find Mearsheimer to be thoroughly reprehensible in his adherence to his "realist" ideology that gives smaller countries no agency in their sovereignty. This is the guy who is blaming the US and NATO for Russia invading Ukraine.

This isn't the 19th century anymore, and China has no more right to try to muscle itself and subjugate its neighbors as Russia does to Ukraine. And in any case, the US strategy has never been to attack China proper, but to deter aggression against its neighbors. There is no planning in the DOD where the US is launching an invasion of China proper.
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disconnectedradical

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Unread post27 Jun 2022, 19:24

xt0xickillax wrote:All this talk of new aircraft carriers and J-15 and J-31 and all the other stuff China is busy copying has me thinking. Chinese stuff is obviously not up to snuff but they can just throw numbers at us until they win. They are building airplanes and ships at such a fast pace that frankly something needs to be done now before the upcoming conflict in the next few years. But what about hitting infrastructure?

As Russia's special operation in Ukraine has shown, hitting key infrastructure can have big effects on a war. So this has me thinking. Why don't we strike China's 3 Gorges Dam and flood the entire Yangtze? Doing so will take a big dent on their numbers advantage and put many cities out of action. In fact, if we truly have the courage, we shouldn't wait and should strike it now before it can be more heavily defended.

A flight of a few B-2s with some bunker busters, maybe some B61-12, can probably make this happen and will set China back years, which I think is worth the risk.


Let me get this right, you're advocating for a deliberate strike on a critical infrastructure knowing that it will cause immense damage and casualties to civilians? This is a severe level of escalation even in the event of a shooting war.

And no, performing a deep strike into China isn't nearly as trivial as what you're suggesting here. :roll:

There are ways to deter China without resorting to outright war crimes, which is frankly what you're suggesting here. The fact that you're so nonchalant about it is disturbing.
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weasel1962

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Unread post28 Jun 2022, 02:27

Way behind the curve here. Deep strikes have been a capability since day 1. When did the USN start basing Ohio subs at Guam? The kill list however doesn't start by murdering millions of civilians. SOP is to get the support of the "international community" first before executing the rest.
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tphuang

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Unread post28 Jun 2022, 19:14

disconnectedradical wrote:I frankly find Mearsheimer to be thoroughly reprehensible in his adherence to his "realist" ideology that gives smaller countries no agency in their sovereignty. This is the guy who is blaming the US and NATO for Russia invading Ukraine.

This isn't the 19th century anymore, and China has no more right to try to muscle itself and subjugate its neighbors as Russia does to Ukraine. And in any case, the US strategy has never been to attack China proper, but to deter aggression against its neighbors. There is no planning in the DOD where the US is launching an invasion of China proper.


Keep in mind that US intelligence picked up so much nervousness from China about an impending US invasion back in 2020 that General Milley had to call his counterpart in PLA and assure him that America will not invade China secretively. His counterpart was not assured.

There are 2 ways for American to start a war with China:
1) outright declaration (completely reprehensible and not going to be supported by American public)
2) Promise in public that America will come to Taiwan's defense in a Chinese invasion + actively encourage and push Taiwan to independence

The second one is actually been pushed by certain members of the foreign policy establishment. That's why there are such public declaration from PLA that China will invade China in the event of a Taiwanese Declaration of Independence. It wants to make sure Taiwan understand in no uncertain terms that "do not declare independence and keep status quo".

Going back to the original point. I was told recently by someone that does Taiwan war games that America's best shot to win any Taiwan Straits war is a pre-emptive surprise attack. Where USN does a surge of 3 carrier groups around westpac under the pretense of a regular exercise and then launch initial round of missiles while Chinese air defense is not on war time alert. There are also articles of wargames that have announced pretty much the same thing. You should expect that people within PLA are reading all of this and preparing for the 1% chance it might happen.
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disconnectedradical

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Unread post28 Jun 2022, 19:27

tphuang wrote:Keep in mind that US intelligence picked up so much nervousness from China about an impending US invasion back in 2020 that General Milley had to call his counterpart in PLA and assure him that America will not invade China secretively. His counterpart was not assured.

There are 2 ways for American to start a war with China:
1) outright declaration (completely reprehensible and not going to be supported by American public)
2) Promise in public that America will come to Taiwan's defense in a Chinese invasion + actively encourage and push Taiwan to independence

The second one is actually been pushed by certain members of the foreign policy establishment. That's why there are such public declaration from PLA that China will invade China in the event of a Taiwanese Declaration of Independence. It wants to make sure Taiwan understand in no uncertain terms that "do not declare independence and keep status quo".

Going back to the original point. I was told recently by someone that does Taiwan war games that America's best shot to win any Taiwan Straits war is a pre-emptive surprise attack. Where USN does a surge of 3 carrier groups around westpac under the pretense of a regular exercise and then launch initial round of missiles while Chinese air defense is not on war time alert. There are also articles of wargames that have announced pretty much the same thing. You should expect that people within PLA are reading all of this and preparing for the 1% chance it might happen.


Under the status quo, Taiwan is a de facto independent country, given that the CCP has little actual jurisdiction of the territory. A Declaration of Independence would just be mainly a formality, although the juice may not be worth the squeeze in terms of unnecessary escalation for little actual change.

Mobilizations are difficult to hide these days (see how obvious Russia's buildup prior to the Ukraine invasion was), and no one in the DOD will be launching something preemptively into Chinese territory.
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charlielima223

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Unread post30 Jun 2022, 01:31

milosh wrote:
Probably counting on Taiwan to change opinion after US collapse. US look more and more as good old USSR when it's decline begin. Rulled by old folks, with very divided society in case of USSR it was nations in case of US it is conservatives and liberals. And don't forget economic problems with competition which is stronger by each day.



Only in your wildest dreams supported by Russian and Chinese propaganda outlets.
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