Russia-Ukraine War 2022

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weasel1962

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Unread post24 Feb 2022, 08:07

Putin has started attack of Ukraine. Reports coming in are that the Ukraine navy has been completely eliminated within 2 hours. All air bases have been bombed. A number like Ivano/Frankivs'k has suffered significant damage (far west). The Russians claim the Ukrainian air force, air defenses and navy have been completely neutralized within 4 hours. Ukraine claims 5 aircraft + 1 helo shot down. Images of ammo dumps blown up at Sumy, Kalinovka.

Artillery strikes is now occurring in the east. Reports of troop incursions/landings happening north, east and south (Odessa). Russian tanks are reported on outskirts of Kharkov, no meaningful resistance noted yet. This will ultimately be a ground campaign.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post24 Feb 2022, 09:29

I think Putin has he's bitten off more than he can chew. Regardless, of the outcome of the War Ukraine. As the majority of world powers aren't going to let this stand.

While preparing for nothing short of "massive sanctions" that will isolate and cut off Russia. That will have nothing short of severe consequences for the Russia People.


If, I was Putin I would be watching my back! :doh:
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mmm

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Unread post24 Feb 2022, 09:34

Surprised there's not any earlier thread on this, thought it was some sort forum moderation policy or what not.

Not intimately familiar with Russian doctrine or capabilities, but they're not waiting on air campaign for weeks for maximum degradation. The land army appears to be rolling in from the get go. I expect the early reports to be murky, conflicting and inaccurate, and the shot down claim for example to be gross exaggeration.

Also is there any reports on Russian forces deployed in Belarus? Did any incursion launch from that axis which by extension make Belarus a party of the invasion?

Edit: Given the confusion I'd wager it's probably US has the best situation picture right now with RQ-4 running sorties in Ukraine, the GMTI should give good picture on the movement on the ground. Which also run the risk of getting caught in "incidents" should they continue to fly missions now it's gone hot.

And if they're willing to share more transparently like they did in the last few weeks on what's now an open conflict I'd give official US account most credibility.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post24 Feb 2022, 09:45

mmm wrote:Surprised there's not any earlier thread on this, thought it was some sort forum moderation policy or what not.

Not intimately familiar with Russian doctrine or capabilities, but they're not waiting on air campaign for weeks for maximum degradation. The land army appears to be rolling in from the get go. I expect the early reports to be murky, conflicting and inaccurate, and the shot down claim for example to be gross exaggeration.

Also is there any reports on Russian forces deployed in Belarus? Did any incursion launch from that axis which by extension make Belarus a party of the invasion?



I did post a story when it first broke but nothing???

Nonetheless, it's going to be very chaotic over the next few days. So, I would take much of what we hear with a grain of salt. At least in the next 24-48 hours.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post24 Feb 2022, 10:00

BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union is planning the “strongest, the harshest package” of sanctions it has ever considered at an emergency summit Thursday as the Russian military attacked Ukraine and world leaders reacted with outrage at Moscow's actions.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/eu ... ocid=ientp
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mmm

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Unread post24 Feb 2022, 10:15

Maybe I didn't look hard enough, I'd expect it to be a hot topic given the current situation.

Putin probably achieved a bit of tactical surprise(on me at least) despite the publicity, by dangling to "diplomacy" possibility for so long. And IMO how absurdly bad the benefit to risk is of a full invasion, that some(that's part of naive me too...) expected it to be a bluff to the last second, maybe he's just moving in to reinforce the status quo in the occupied region, claim victory and back down you know? He's can't be really doing it.

To be fair he had track record of achieving strategical objective with use of military, all the way back to pacifying Chechens, bloody nose Georgia, then more recently in Syria and 2014 in Ukraine. For the hand he's dealt that's kinda impressive, might have given him the confidence to go all in on this one.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post24 Feb 2022, 10:39

mmm wrote:Maybe I didn't look hard enough, I'd expect it to be a hot topic given the current situation.

Putin probably achieved a bit of tactical surprise(on me at least) despite the publicity, by dangling to "diplomacy" possibility for so long. And IMO how absurdly bad the benefit to risk is of a full invasion, that some(that's part of naive me too...) expected it to be a bluff to the last second, maybe he's just moving in to reinforce the status quo in the occupied region, claim victory and back down you know? He's can't be really doing it.

To be fair he had track record of achieving strategical objective with use of military, all the way back to pacifying Chechens, bloody nose Georgia, then more recently in Syria and 2014 in Ukraine. For the hand he's dealt that's kinda impressive, might have given him the confidence to go all in on this one.



Few members are on the forum at the moment. So, likely why you haven't seen much of a response.........


Nonetheless, I think this time it will be very different from Putin's past "ADVENTURISM". This time I believe he has went a "bridge too far". I think much of the Free World will unite and punish him severely! Maybe even to a point that he suffers internal strife! As the average Russian will be the one ultimately feeling the pain from his power grab!
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ricnunes

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Unread post24 Feb 2022, 16:10

mmm wrote:Also is there any reports on Russian forces deployed in Belarus? Did any incursion launch from that axis which by extension make Belarus a party of the invasion?


It seems that Russian troops crossed the Belarus-Ukraine border. Here:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60503037
Russia's military breached the border in a number of places, in the north, south and east, including from Belarus, a long-time Russian ally. There are reports of fighting in some parts of eastern Ukraine.


There are some reports media reports that the Russian troops are at the "doorsteps" of Ukraine's capital, Kiev.

In my personal opinion, sanctions won't do "squat" against Russia! Russia is a huge country with enough resources to keep going, independently of sanctions. Russia can (and IMO, will) continue to sell/trade goods with China and the Russian elites are and continue to be rich enough to carry on their luxurious lives (except maybe for watching soccer games in England and/or spending vacations in Southern France).
Negotiations won't work as well. Heck, as we can see they didn't work, period!

If the West/NATO doesn't do anything about Ukraine then I'm afraid that Putin will continue his expansionist plans and a major conflict will inevitably occur in the future, like it happened with Hitler and all the events that led to WWII!
IMO, what NATO should do would be to help the Ukrainians with Air Support to guarantee Air Superiority above Ukraine in order to give the Ukrainians a fighting chance against the Russians but not send troops to Ukraine.
Of course this would still be a direct NATO confrontation with Russia but IMO if this won't happen now, it will inevitably happen in the near future.
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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zero-one

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Unread post24 Feb 2022, 16:54

This is allegedly a Flanker in a phonebooth with a fulcrum down low.

InShot_20220224_235152744.mp4 [ 8.33 MiB | Viewed 17564 times ]


I'm wondering how IFF is conducted with both sides using the same hardware. Do they just keep the IFF transponders on all the time or is VID required
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mixelflick

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Unread post24 Feb 2022, 17:05

weasel1962 wrote:Putin has started attack of Ukraine. Reports coming in are that the Ukraine navy has been completely eliminated within 2 hours. All air bases have been bombed. A number like Ivano/Frankivs'k has suffered significant damage (far west). The Russians claim the Ukrainian air force, air defenses and navy have been completely neutralized within 4 hours. Ukraine claims 5 aircraft + 1 helo shot down. Images of ammo dumps blown up at Sumy, Kalinovka.

Artillery strikes is now occurring in the east. Reports of troop incursions/landings happening north, east and south (Odessa). Russian tanks are reported on outskirts of Kharkov, no meaningful resistance noted yet. This will ultimately be a ground campaign.


"The first casualty of war, is usually the truth..".

An entire nation's air force, air defeneses and navy... completely neutralized inside of 4 hours? They obviously watched Desert Storm and other US conflicts PR closely. Ukraine is the size of Texas and while they're vastly outnumbered on most fronts... many of these misions are going to take 3-4 hours. So the air crews do their thing, conduct BDA and secondary strikes as needed. The debrief alone is going to take days, especially if you want even reasonably accurate intelligence.

How about those Ukranian stingers? Are we to really believe they're all accounted for? Did not a single Ukranian Flanker or Mig-29 or SU-24 or SU-25 make it into the air? Eventually, they all be neutralized but please don't fall for the propaganda. I suppose its useful in making Russian equipment look good and trying to beat the enemy before a single shot is fired... but it's not reality.

When the post mortem is written on this campaign, I'm betting the truth is going to differ considerably from what's already been reported...
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ricnunes

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Unread post24 Feb 2022, 17:09

zero-one wrote:I'm wondering how IFF is conducted with both sides using the same hardware. Do they just keep the IFF transponders on all the time or is VID required


I would say that they could simply change their respective IFF codes and each side would use their own set of preset codes.
Dependently on how Russian/Ukrainian IFF codes work, it could be that the probability of both sides ending up using the same IFF codes by chance is very low.
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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ricnunes

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Unread post24 Feb 2022, 17:16

mixelflick wrote:How about those Ukranian stingers? Are we to really believe they're all accounted for? Did not a single Ukranian Flanker or Mig-29 or SU-24 or SU-25 make it into the air? Eventually, they all be neutralized but please don't fall for the propaganda. I suppose its useful in making Russian equipment look good and trying to beat the enemy before a single shot is fired... but it's not reality.


I've seen reports that at least 5 Russian aircraft and 1 Russian helicopter was shot down by the Ukrainians.
There are other reports that the Ukrainians seem to have halted a Russian assault somewhere in the Eastern part of the country, reportedly killing 50 Russian soldiers and destroyed Russians tanks.
There's also the confirmation of 2 Russian soldiers captured by the Ukrainians.
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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ricnunes

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Unread post24 Feb 2022, 17:41

mixelflick wrote:How about those Ukranian stingers?


Russian helicopters coming under attack from what sounds like MANPADS:
https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/14 ... 00-dolares
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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milosh

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Unread post24 Feb 2022, 18:00

mixelflick wrote:An entire nation's air force, air defeneses and navy... completely neutralized inside of 4 hours? They obviously watched Desert Storm and other US conflicts PR closely. Ukraine is the size of Texas and while they're vastly outnumbered on most fronts... many of these misions are going to take 3-4 hours. So the air crews do their thing, conduct BDA and secondary strikes as needed. The debrief alone is going to take days, especially if you want even reasonably accurate intelligence.


Well their air force and navy isn't numerical so not unrealistic they were wipe out if couple of hours.

At least one Ukrainian Su-27 escaped to Romania.

Also Russia didn't use air power at least in opening but fire lot of cruise missiles and long range MLRS (because they surrounded Ukraine those MLRS could hit lot of targets) probable even ballistic missiles.

Btw Smerch MLRS fires small uav:
https://www.reddit.com/r/MilitaryPorn/c ... s_750x500/

This is what Taiwan need to study something similar is probable expected in China attack them, Chinese heavy MLRS covers whole island, and Taiwan air force isn't numerical either.
Last edited by milosh on 24 Feb 2022, 20:12, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread post24 Feb 2022, 18:23

Three USAF tankers from Mildenhall running racetracks close to Ukrain.

racetrack.png
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