Russia-Ukraine War 2022

Close-up videos of that destroyed T-90M from all possible angles:





Looks to me that it got clearly hit with a HEAT warhead to the rear and the shaped charge jet went through the engine and right to the carousel autoloader with predictable results. It was almost perfect shot to kill a T-90M. Rear hull armour is very thin and the engine won't offer much additional protection at all. Carl Gustaf with HEAT round could easily do that kind of damage as would almost any decent anti-tank weapon.

Given that the driver hatch was still closed, I bet it was Ukranian action that killed it. If it was Russians destroying their own T-90M, then the driver hatch would've likely been open as the driver would most likely get out from there given the orientation of the turret and I doubt they would've bothered to close it again.

It was an ill-fated attempt to out maneuver the other side. The Ukrainian forces don't have to do that. If they can absorb the attack, and make the Russians suffer, eventually the Z-force will have enough, pack up and go home, repeating the result of the Kyiv operation.

Reportedly the Ukrainians are pushing out from Kharkiv to the border. The city was not shelled for the first time since the beginning of the invasion. One of the supply lines of the Z-force was threatened.

Another crazy video about Russian T-72B (supposedly) getting rid of turret in front of Chinese TV (at about 2:25 into the video):



No information what did the damage but that's just insane...

https://twitter.com/George97300331/status/1524388302538825728?s=20&t=nmhvqpOjnGNDJfzDpbd5FQ

Yeah that Phoenix TV "Journalist" footage is geolocated to somewhere 70km behind frontline in what's separatist controlled territory before the invasion. Guess the pink on the map showing Russian "control" don't really tell all that much about actual actions, as there's no explanation other than some guys with their Javelin doing their thing. He said himself the route is a known kill zone of Ukrainian ambushes to be passed as quickly as possible, so it's far from a one off.

Though I doubt the account it's some scattered remnants of original Mariupol defender he's implying. It's likely the work of some special reconnaissance guys somehow infiltrating 70kms from outside, maybe with help of local irregular. I don't know if it's something you could generalize as their overall rear area security situation, if so it's not looking good for the Russians, the high tech insurgency is probably real.

Yes, I agree with that. Here is the map where it happened:

I think things have just gotten very, very bad for the Russians. There seems to be more and more of this kind of events and the river crossing disaster was just incredible. I think the Russian forces will just collapse at some point just like they did in Kyiv.

The very place was talked about by CNN on May 10. Only one of the bridges was visible then.

Edit: The context of this river crossing.

bridge

map

One shot hit the ammo box, then went after those guys in the house.

ammo hit

Russian Su-35 allegedly flying over Kharkiv Oblast in Ukraine:

Seems to be carrying 4xR-77, RxR-73 and one Kh-31. Maybe fired one Kh-31 already?

Btw, these pics were posted on Telegram May 8 at 17:42. It definitely seems like Russians are concerned with Ukranian SAM systems and fighters to carry all that.

So they're still flying SEAD mission with the SU-35..

Interesting. After the shootdown last month, I would have thought they would have switched or at least tried another SEAD platform - as in, unmanned. But perhaps they just don't have it, or have deemed it not as effective. The heavy air to air loadout surpised me, as its no small "self defense" type of warload. Ukranian SU-27's and Mig-29's must be putting up a formidable defense...

Vladimir: how about we attack and finish off Finland before it joins NATO?
Dmitry : here we go again.

Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev pictured together in Moscow in January 2020

Did Russia’s General Staff Miss Warnings of a Hard Campaign in Ukraine?
Roger N McDermott
10 May 2022

This is predicated upon the assertion that in the pre-war operational planning by Russia’s General Staff, an assumption was made or forced upon them that the war would result in rapid victory: Russian soldiers would be welcomed with flowers, bread and salt. In short, the war would be easy and relatively brief. While this has gained traction and credibility in many quarters, it is a bold assertion to say that Russia’s General Staff was unaware or simply missed the possibility that the campaign in Ukraine might prove to be long and hard. Did the General Staff ignore or miss pre-war warnings that the conflict would be far from easy? Does any evidence exist to the contrary?
-------------

These comments reflected Ivashov’s open letter addressed to Putin on 28 January, published on the organisation’s website on 31 January. In this letter, Ivashov predicted that ‘there will be thousands (tens of thousands) of dead young, healthy guys on one side and on the other, which will certainly affect the future demographic situation in our dying countries’. Warning against the war, he appealed to the leadership to reverse such intentions: ‘The president, the government and the ministry of defence cannot fail to understand such consequences’, he observed. Ivashov called on Russia’s political leadership to abandon plans to attack Ukraine, arguing that such a conflict could imperil the Russian state and possibly risk war with NATO.


Yet, this failure to understand such foreseeable consequences lies in Putin’s miscalculation of the risks involved and the parameters required for adequate operational design. Putin’s flawed decision-making likely resulted not only from badly crafted intelligence – especially from the FSB – but also from his largely successful previous experience of using military force. This predisposed him to underestimate the military of a country lacking – in his view – legitimate statehood or nationhood, and was further compounded by his failure to recognise that the war in Ukraine would be fought on a scale way beyond his experience

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-resear ... gn-ukraine

Mikhail Khodarenok’s article about the course of a possible Russian war on Ukraine appeared in NVO last week. He’s a knowledgeable and realistic analyst.

And he’s a Russian patriot given his military career and service in the General Staff. But he’s one who says what the Kremlin doesn’t want to hear, but needs to.

Khodarenok points to the danger of Russia’s overconfidence about military action even with its significantly revamped and upgraded forces. His piece resembles what many Western observers write when the U.S. contemplates war. But, in Russia, Khodarenok is a lonely voice.

War on Ukraine, he argues, won’t be easy like Moscow’s hubris would indicate.

We can hope Putin won’t opt for war. But, if he does, it will change everything, including for Putin himself. He probably can’t even imagine how right now.

In either event, here’s a translation of Khodarenok’s timely article:

https://russiandefpolicy.com/2022/02/07 ... n-ukraine/

Edit:

Found three better images of the river crossing. I counted about 36 units in these images, excluding the bridges.

river crossing

So they're still flying SEAD mission with the SU-35..

Interesting. After the shootdown last month, I would have thought they would have switched or at least tried another SEAD platform - as in, unmanned. But perhaps they just don't have it, or have deemed it not as effective. The heavy air to air loadout surpised me, as its no small "self defense" type of warload. Ukranian SU-27's and Mig-29's must be putting up a formidable defense...

They do not have unmanned SEAD platform. It's also strange that with all the money they invested in Su-34, it's not capable of attacking and neutralizing Ukrainian air defense.

First appearance of improvised Brimstone launcher.

Brimstone

Another crazy video about Russian T-72B (supposedly) getting rid of turret in front of Chinese TV (at about 2:25 into the video):



No information what did the damage but that's just insane...

New world record for Russian tank turret popping. We turn to the judges score cards now...
10...
10...
9...
And another 10.

TWZ tries to count this.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/d ... ss-a-river

Edit1: Latest satellite image of Snake Island

Edit2: Foreign reporters reached the T-90M wreck. It seems that the Kharkiv operation is done. The Russians have withdrawn.

Debacle On The Donets

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... v-12611429

Edit3: Two smoke plumes visible near the Snake Island. Better view of the Russian crane barge and landing craft. More heavy fighting reported around the bridging area.

Snake Island

First appearance of improvised Brimstone launcher.

Very interesting. There have been surface launch tests with Brimstone, but those launchers have possibly been just for development and testing and are likely unsuitable for actual combat use. I think they should also put the system on those Unmanned Coastal Defence boats that Ukraine has received. That should be relatively easy task and would improve Ukrainian coastal defences quite a bit.