Kablammo! and recent events...

marsavian · by **marsavian** » 04 Jan 2020, 21:29

In the long run Israel will not let Iran develop nuclear weapons so I don't know if their nuclear facilities have any long term future anyway. I could see though once Iran's military has been defanged by the US military that all these facilities could be targeted anyway by Trump as a tidying up exercise. Trump may only have a year left in office so things could move pretty fast this year with zero tolerance to any proxy (nevermind direct) terrorism now being his policy.

spazsinbad · by **spazsinbad** » 04 Jan 2020, 21:31

Some in the west don't quite understand why IRAN does what it does. Religion / Politics / Criminal Gangs - you name it.

steve2267 · by **steve2267** » 04 Jan 2020, 21:33

spazsinbad wrote:Most in the west don't quite understand why IRAN does what it does. Religion / Politics / Criminal Gangs - you name it.

FIFY

marsavian · by **marsavian** » 04 Jan 2020, 21:44

If you spend any time on the Ayatollah's Twitter (yes he's a big fan like Trump and he may have egged Trump on recently by taunting him on Twitter by saying you can't do anything) you get an inkling. He seems to think he's a modern day descendant of Muhammad and Jesus and coupled with very strident nationalism leads to a very dangerous mix of religious reactionary fervour in his followers. It's up to the secular Iranians to ultimately depose this whole religious government as I suspect they will continue to cause misguided regional mischief until then.

steve2267 · by **steve2267** » 04 Jan 2020, 21:46

I don't want to see a promising thread be summarily locked... so... back to the F-35...

I noted with interest a day or so ago that the 34th TFS, Rude Rams, had deployed to the Persian Gulf for six months. I noted from Google Earth imagery that Strike Eagles, at least one squadron's worth, had been to the same air base outside Abu Dhabi in 2018 and/or 2019. (No Month/Day/Year date on the GE images. For shame.)

Another article I just found whilst searching on all things MOP related, A hundred super ground penetrator bombs might be needed to reach deep bunkers using superconcrete, stated that University of Tehran students had created "SuperConcrete" that had surpassed 60,000psi compressive strength. So Iran has clearly been at the forefront of superconcrete research. This same article stated that a GBU-57/B MOP drops from 60m penetration in 5,000psi concrete to just 8m penetration in 10,000psi concrete. I suppose it is possible that even the GBU-28 might not be able to penetrate Fordow / Natanz structures. MOPs probably can. Those details are classified I'm sure.

If GBU-28's are judge capable, then it would seem F-35's doing their Lightning EW-wormhole thingy, would be the ideal escort for Strike Eagles. If GBU-28's can create holes, are F-35s accurate enough to put GBU-109s or "regular" Mk84s through the holes? Or does that technique (trailing bomb through first bomb hole) need to be executed by the same aircraft? (I know from surveying, that if I observe locations with the same GPS equipment within the same period of time, observations can be pretty "tight." But use different equipment or come back at a different time (satellite constellation different), my accuracy can degrade by 50-100%.

I dunno what is going to happen. IMO, Pres Trump's targeting Soleimani was a "measured" response. Hopefully cooler Mullah heads will prevail.

steve2267 · by **steve2267** » 04 Jan 2020, 21:48

marsavian wrote:If you spend any time on the Ayotallah's Twitter (yes he's a big fan like Trump and he may have egged Trump on recently by taunting him on Twitter by saying you can't do anything) you get an inkling. He seems to think he's a modern day descendant of Muhammad and Jesus and coupled with very strident nationalism leads to a very dangerous mix of religious reactionary fervour in his followers. It's up to the secular Iranians to ultimately depose this whole religious government as I suspect they will continue to cause misguided regional mischief until then.

That's just bad all around. If he is that demented, the F-35's may very well be getting a true baptism by fire in the very near future.

sferrin · by **sferrin** » 04 Jan 2020, 22:13

tailgate wrote:First targets are always Command and Control.....always

Soli WAS C and C of the guard.....

We may take out targets as mentioned, but C and C is always top billing.......Take away the eyes and legs and the force degrades drastically.......jmho

In a war, sure. We're not at war with Iran and almost certainly won't be any time in the near future. This will be a tit-for-tat. Iran has to decide if they want to stop here or not, because the next step is they lose their refineries and maybe their navy too.

steve2267 · by **steve2267** » 04 Jan 2020, 22:23

sferrin wrote:
In a war, sure. We're not at war with Iran and almost certainly won't be any time in the near future. This will be a tit-for-tat. Iran has to decide if they want to stop here or not, because the next step is they lose their refineries and maybe their navy too.

Michael Yon, a former Green Beret cum writer whom I respect greatly, stated do not go for the refineries -- the Iranian people will need the refineries to rebuild their country. Going for the refineries could be seen as going after the Iranian people. I think Tailgate made a similar point above regarding the electrical grid.

With C&C in mind, I do keep coming back to decapitate Iran's nuclear program. A stated aim of preventing Iran from developing an atomic weapon would (most probably) be achieved, relieving, in the near - mid term anyway, a lot of pressure on Israel. It would also be a "political feather in his cap" that Trump could point to come re-election time: I promised I would not permitt Iran to develop nuclear weapons, and I kept that promise. Possibily accomplished with F-35's escorting Strike Eagles. If SE not in theater, then B-2s dropping GBU-28 / GBU-57/B MOPs with F-35's rolling back IADS, conducting ISR, and generally raising havoc. F-22's rolling up the Iranian Air Force. (Sorry Tomcat lovers.)

To me the big unknown, other than cyber, is if Iran would decide to use all her "vaunted rockets." Israel might find its hands full with proxy forces in Lebanon and Gaza. Am guessing it would put the Adirs to good use targeting launch points in real time.

steve2267 · by **steve2267** » 04 Jan 2020, 23:00

Evidently someone didn't get the memo from the Head Mullah, OR the Iranians want to dance.

BREAKING: Missiles Hit Base Where U.S. Troops Stationed In Iraq And Near U.S. Embassy, Reports Say
by Ryan Saavedra, January 4th, 2020, DailyWire.com

Multiple rockets hit a military base in Iraq on Saturday where U.S. troops are stationed while mortars were fired at a high-security facility that houses the U.S. Embassy, according to multiple reports.

Reuters reported, “Several rockets fell on Saturday inside Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone, its Jadriya neighborhood, and the Balad air base housing U.S. troops.”

...
https://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking-missiles-hit-base-where-u-s-troops-stationed-in-iraq-and-near-u-s-embassy-reports-say

Would a pair of F-35's opposite each other in a racetrack do a better job at immediately detecting rocket launches & pinpointing the location than, say, drones? Am thinking DAS + APG-81 + EOTS, fused, would result in better intel than a ground based radar or any drone. Reapers have ElectroOptical, and probably Thermal, but don't think they have any sensors for automatically detecting, classifying, and building tracks on incoming. I could be wrong. That would be a handy thing to have in some sort of a tactical drone. Do any unamnned systems come close to fusing the sensors the F-35 has built-in?

If you put a fourship over Baghdad, or in the neighborhood... two in a racetrack, and two roving about, all with SDB's on board... the racetrack guys could detect & fix the launch points, which are then immediately addressed by the rovers. After 3 or so hours, rovers get gas from an aerial filling station, then take the place of the racetrack guys. Racetrack guys get gas, then become the rovers. Replace the fourship every six hours. That's a lot of JP, though just flying a rocket CAP. A lot of wear and tear on the machines just boring holes in the sky.

marsavian · by **marsavian** » 05 Jan 2020, 00:08

The serious (Iranian) retaliation won't take place until after Iran has milked the state funeral next week. What they will do is unknown but the US response will be worse. I can't see this ending up in any other way than a full conventional state to state conflict as Iran and the US have mutually conflicting foreign policy goals in the same neighborhood and it has been brewing for decades. Iran has an exaggerated sense of their military power as Iraq once did and this will unfortunately have to be demonstrated to them forcibly as that is where their international politics has unerringly taken them.

magitsu · by **magitsu** » 05 Jan 2020, 01:58

This latest lunacy of 52 targets, including cultural sites, is baiting Iran to call it.
They might not need a real event to bring the Iranian people together (even those that oppose the current regime), but allowing it to happen could do bigger international/historical damage to the US image than Iran itself could affect. If that were to happen, it could be seen as a nasty follow up from ISIS in Palmyra only just a moment ago.

Iran can't do meaningful conventional damage (and doing so would give way too clean casus belli to drop self-placed restraints), but it can become a semi-plausible martyr for the cause like Soleimani. It would be incredible if after all the bad things they've done if it would be allowed to happen.

Similarly Iran can't do tactically anything against the F-35, but it can possibly shape conditions for them to be used in a strategically wrong way.

marsavian · by **marsavian** » 05 Jan 2020, 02:56

It's only fair that Iran is warned as they still seem to be under the misapprehension that it's still business as usual where they commision or perpetrate acts of violence and no real repercussions occur. This President is not playing that game anymore.

magitsu · by **magitsu** » 05 Jan 2020, 03:02

marsavian wrote:It's only fair that Iran is warned as they still seem to be under the misapprehension that it's still business as usual where they commision or perpetrate acts of violence and no real repercussions occur. This President is not playing that game anymore.

Goes a maybe bit too far to suggest willingness to engage in war crimes. Cultural sites can't be targeted.

marsavian · by **marsavian** » 05 Jan 2020, 03:24

Cultural sites can't be targeted.

But innocent people can ? Iran has perpetrated terrorist acts for decades and now it's got its claws into Iraq, Syria, Lebanon with its malicious eyes on Israel and Saudi Arabia. This is Saddam Hussein type behavior and will ultimately receive the same response. It's hard to understand how Iran's behavior is accepted and now considered normal foreign policy amongst some people.

magitsu · by **magitsu** » 05 Jan 2020, 04:03

marsavian wrote:
Cultural sites can't be targeted.

But innocent people can ? Iran has perpetrated terrorist acts for decades and now it's got its claws into Iraq, Syria, Lebanon with its malicious eyes on Israel and Saudi Arabia. This is Saddam Hussein type behavior and will ultimately receive the same response. It's hard to understand how Iran's behavior is accepted and now considered normal foreign policy amongst some people.

We are trying to be the good guys.