Kablammo! and recent events...

[marsavian]

IRGC Aerospace Commander: Wednesday Missile Strikes Mark Start of Major Operations Across Region

https://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13981019000659

... more bluster and threats ....

The missile strikes on one of the United States' most important bases within the framework of martyr Soleimani operation was the start of big operations which will continue in the entire region," General Hajizadeh told reporters in Tehran on Thursday.

"We were not after killing anyone although tens of US troops have likely been killed and wounded and were transfered to Israel and Jordan on 9 sorties of C-130 flights," he added, noting that had Iran intended to kill the American forces, it could have planned high casualty operations to kill 500 US military men in the first step and 4,000 to 5,000 others in the second and third phases within 48 hours.

General Hajizadeh said that 13 missiles were fired at the US bases on Tuesday, adding that Iran was ready to fire hundreds of missiles in the first hours and had prepared thousands of missiles for possible 3-day to week-long clashes between the two sides.

[mmm]

Shedding debris like that while having a major fire, it doesn't happen with modern turbofan even after eating a bird. IR early warning satellite could also have detected SAM launch.

[marsavian]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ls-believe

The Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, speaking at a hastily-convened press conference, said his government “will not rest” until it got justice. Of the 176 people onboard, 79 were Iranian, 63 were Canadian and 11 were Ukrainian (including nine crew members), along with 10 Swedes, seven Afghans, three Britons and three German nationals.

“We have intelligence, including from our allies and own intelligence that the plane was shot down by Iranian surface-to-air missiles,” Trudeau said. “Canadians want answers. That means transparency, accountability and justice.”

US media outlets quoted officials saying their satellites had identified the signature of an Iranian anti-aircraft battery being activated shortly before the aircraft went down a few minutes after taking off at 6:13am on Wednesday morning. The US officials said they had identified infrared signals from two suspected missiles, followed shortly afterwards by an infrared blip from the burning aircraft.

Trump told reporters on Thursday he had “suspicions” the plane might have been mistakenly shot down. “Someone could have made a mistake on the other side,” he said. “Some people say it was mechanical, I personally don’t think that’s even a question. I have a feeling that … something very terrible happened.”

Public suspicions that the Boeing 737-8000 may have accidentally been shot down had grown throughout Thursday based on images circulating on social media showing what appeared to be missile debris that was purportedly photographed near the crash site.

The London-based firm IHS Markit cited the images in a memo arguing the aircraft was “likely to have been shot down mistakenly by an IRGC-operated SA-15 missile”. It said the debris appeared to be that of a Russian-made Tor-M1 missile known to be possessed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. It could not confirm the authenticity of the images but said it assessed them to be credible.

[afjag]

Purported video showing Ukrainian Airline being hit.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/vide ... ssile.html

[marsavian]

Pretty conclusive video ! How dumb are these Iranians, do they seriously think the US is going to send something with an airliner RCS e.g. B-52 into the middle of Iran ?!! No they would be the ones standing back with long range standoff weapons, duh ! Only B-2, F-22, F-35 would be roaming over Iran.

[zhangmdev]

What baffles me is why Iran didn't ground all civilian aviation after it fired those missiles, at least wait for the response? If the US decided to retaliate, who knows how many jets, missiles and bombs would be all over its air space. Is it a good idea to let those airliners fly as usual?

[lbk000]

Pretty conclusive video ! How dumb are these Iranians, do they seriously think the US is going to send something with an airliner RCS e.g. B-52 into the middle of Iran ?!! No they would be the ones standing back with long range standoff weapons, duh ! Only B-2, F-22, F-35 would be roaming over Iran.

I think it's easy to forget how quickly one stops thinking consciously under pressure. Imagine you're stuck inside a dark closet that you know is near the top of the list of things marked for death by an American counterattack that you fully expect. You may even know that there is a good chance you might never get to see what kills you, nevermind get your chance to shoot back at it, but nobody likes going down without a fight so you're probably gonna be highly primed to shoot the first thing you even suspect to be looking in your direction.

[mmm]

Pretty conclusive video ! How dumb are these Iranians, do they seriously think the US is going to send something with an airliner RCS e.g. B-52 into the middle of Iran ?!! No they would be the ones standing back with long range standoff weapons, duh ! Only B-2, F-22, F-35 would be roaming over Iran.

I doubt they assumed they'd see any manned platform. Most likely they took it for cruise missile, the flight profile was the best match(well as best as it could), also the weapon they purportedly used in the engagement. Low visibility, poorly networked low tier point defense operating semi independently, relaxed ROE and the psychological pressure. Also given the situation they were probably a little cautious about their RF emission. If they were to get hit it would have been the major C2 nodes and emmiter, might have further reduced their ability to PID.

Though I wouldn't be too surprised if there were a few penetrating ISR platforms roaming over Iranian air space, just to better ascertain their intention and scope of action.

[weasel1962]

lol, so now that it is established that the Iranians did it, like how the Russians did it, one day after stating that it is premature, I can presume that it is now no longer premature to conclude what the cause was...

[citanon]

So we killed their number two and they responded by stampeding more than 50 people to death and shooting down an air liner full of people flying from their own capital airport....

I don't think this episode leaves them looking stronger....

[Dragon029]

And now finally, Iran admits that they did unintentionally shoot down PS752:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51073621

[botsing]

And now finally, Iran admits that they did unintentionally shoot down PS752:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51073621

Good that they admitted it, that will greatly help with de-escalating the current tension.

[zhangmdev]

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politi ... reloaded=1

Some how they still managed to blame the pilot:

the Ukrainian airlines departs from Imam Khomeini Airport and, while in rotation, is completely approaching a sensitive military center of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps and at altitude and in form of a hostile flight. In these circumstances, the plane was ...

Edit to add IRGC's explanation:
https://ifpnews.com/irgc-releases-detai ... nian-plane

The planed was identified as a cruise missile at a distance of 19 km. "The guy" could not contact "his commanders" to get approval, and he had 10 seconds to decide to fire or not. So he decided to engage.

IRGC asked to close air space for civilian aviation, but was refused.

IRGC knew what happened almost immediately. The Aviation Organization rejected the possibility of a shotdown because they didn't know.

[marsavian]

Reads like a fairy tale, all of it ... once upon a time in Tehran ...

1. Following the threats of President (Donald J. Trump) and the criminal America’s military commanders targeting a large number of targets in the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in the event of a counter-operation and in view of the unprecedented increase in air traffic in the region, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s armed forces were prepared to respond to possible threats at the highest level.

2. In the hours after the missile strikes, US terrorist forces’ warplanes around the country increased, and some reports of airstrikes targeting strategic centers in the country were reported to numerous defense units and targets on some radar plates. Caused greater sensitivity in air defense complexes.

3. In such critical and critical conditions, Flight PS752 of the Ukrainian airlines departs from Imam Khomeini Airport and, while in rotation, is completely approaching a sensitive military center of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps and at altitude and in form of a hostile flight. In these circumstances, the plane was accidentally hit by human error and, unfortunately, which unfortunately results in the martyrdom of dear compatriots and the death of a number of foreign nationals.

[marsavian]

The immediate aftermath of Qasem Soleimani's death is over now and things have settled down to an uneasy truce so what has been achieved :-

1) The price of Iran's aggressive foreign policy especially towards the US has been made higher, the puppet masters in Iran will be targets in future.

2) Iran flexed its missile might and although it didn't frighten the US certainly frightened its neighbors so they may see that as a win in terms of a regional show of power.

3) Iraq on the face of it wants the US to leave now so again could be a win for Iran if it eventually comes true.

4) Sanctions just got tougher on Iran increasing the economic pressure on that theocratic regime.

5) Iran will go back to warfare by proxy and wait for a more appeasing President so that JPCOA/Sanctions relief can be revived. Their long term plan is to develop an ICBM and then they will develop nuclear warheads for it. Their ultimate aim is to mimic North Korea but via the missile first. It will take a President even tougher than Trump to stop them getting there.

Militarily not much happened as neither Iran or the US wanted an all out war. Once Iran expends the majority of its ballistic and cruise missiles it will be toothless but no one in the region feels inclined to take that initial pain to face them down so this pointless centuries old Shia/Sunni bloody struggle for Islamic supremacy will continue with nearby Westerners as collateral damage.