Russia-Ukraine War 2022

Discuss air warfare, doctrine, air forces, historic campaigns, etc.
  • Author
  • Message
Online

sprstdlyscottsmn

Elite 5K

Elite 5K

  • Posts: 5472
  • Joined: 10 Mar 2006, 01:24
  • Location: Nashua NH USA

Unread post29 Sep 2022, 14:55

ricnunes wrote: So their real real of fire is much lower than the "theoretical" rate of fire per minute compared again to other more modern AA or machine guns.

Fair
"Spurts"

-Pilot
-Aerospace Engineer
-Army Medic
-FMS Systems Engineer
-PFD Systems Engineer
-PATRIOT Systems Engineer
Offline

mixelflick

Elite 4K

Elite 4K

  • Posts: 4975
  • Joined: 20 Mar 2010, 10:26
  • Location: Parts Unknown

Unread post29 Sep 2022, 15:28

hornetfinn wrote:
charlielima223 wrote:
icemaverick wrote:Russia is hoping Ukraine will run out of bullets before they run out of warm bodies.


That seems to be one of the main strategies for Russian military (as well as China) for a while. I point out again that winter is coming soon and no doubt Ukraine is using this time of year to take advantage of where they can. I would think the winter time would allow both powers to regroupt, rearm, and refit for the next year. Traditionally winter was what has been able to save the Russian military from defeat... I wonder how IF that will be the case this time around.


I think there is very good chance that the winter will be really bad for Russian military in Ukraine. They seem to have serious lack of good clothing for their soldiers and pressing even more of those soldier to the fight will mean not many of those will have good winter gear. They probably bring their own clothes and boots which will help keep them warm but most civilian clothes are not very good for combat. I think Ukraine will become stronger during the winter and Russia will gradually become weaker and weaker.


Precisely what happened to the Germans as the bleak Russian winter set in, during WWII. History is repeating itself... Except this time instead of the Russians having a worthy cause, Ukraine has it - defending the motherland. And it is every bit the driving force that is was in WWII for Russia. The Ukrainians believe in their cause, the Russians do not - that is the single biggest factor in Ukraine winning the war. Bigger than Javelin. Bigger than HARMs on Mig's and Sukhoi's. Bigger than HIMARS.

These newly minted Russian "soldiers" aren't going to hold up well with little winter clothing, food or most importantly survival training. Videos I've seen show many have been living in the woods under a sheet of plastic. Literally, an "A frame" built using a sheet of plastic. I'd be surprised if these guys know what hypothermia is, nevermind how to avoid it. And with the Russian Army now in tatters and on the run, they won't be able to steal as much from the civilian population as they once did.

So we have drunk, middle aged men running around Ukraine playing army. The Russians/Wagner aren't sugar-coating it anymore, either - Ukraine is a meat grinder, and you're the meat. I forsee mass surrender, desertion and death for those Russians that stay to fight. It's not going to be pretty, and the steady flow of body bags going home to Russian mothers will only accelerate.

War really is a sad waste of human life. Tens, perhaps hundreds of thousands dying for a man who can't come to terms with the fact Russia is no longer a super-power. Ironically, his attempt at re-capturing its past glory has only hastened its demise. The coming collapse of Russia will make 1991 look tame by comparison...
Offline

zhangmdev

Elite 1K

Elite 1K

  • Posts: 1129
  • Joined: 01 May 2017, 09:07

Unread post29 Sep 2022, 15:42

Starshe Eddy just returned from Lyman: "On the way, I barely escaped the mortars twice. It saved me that I constantly braked and accelerated the car. 120mm was exploding in 20 meters away. Copters fly everywhere. "

Sound familiar?
Offline

milosh

Elite 1K

Elite 1K

  • Posts: 1935
  • Joined: 27 Feb 2008, 23:40
  • Location: Serbia, Belgrade

Unread post29 Sep 2022, 16:26

mixelflick wrote:Precisely what happened to the Germans as the bleak Russian winter set in, during WWII. History is repeating itself... Except this time instead of the Russians having a worthy cause, Ukraine has it - defending the motherland. And it is every bit the driving force that is was in WWII for Russia. The Ukrainians believe in their cause, the Russians do not - that is the single biggest factor in Ukraine winning the war. Bigger than Javelin. Bigger than HARMs on Mig's and Sukhoi's. Bigger than HIMARS.


Ah again that German myth about general winter ;)

German high command wanted cold time so they can contiue push torward Moscow, mud season created big problems for them so cold was solution they can finally move.

Problem wasn't winter as it is presented by them (cloaths did lack but it wasn't main factor) problem was logistics. I think Von Paulus during war games before USSR invasion was acting as USSR and he beat Germany couple of times, he point out logistics as huge problem, and just as some other generals but Hilter like to listen what he wanted so when Halder and other hawks convice him logistics wouldn't be such problem they have lot of captured west europian trucks, and then mud come :D

Btw Halder was very important for US army and NATO after war, he wrote studies about Soviets and east front of course hiding lot of German frak ups :D

Winter was problem for Grande Armée, which probable gave German generals nice excise why they frak up.

In case of this war, it all depend what is Vlad's head, if he again go crazy and think o I will have million fresh troops lets try massive invasion again it would be VERY bloody for Russians and another big debacle this time much bigger then what hapen in spring 2022.

But he is okey I want to fortified what I took and maybe took something else (one big city for example Odesa) then it could be big problem for Ukraine.
Offline

zhangmdev

Elite 1K

Elite 1K

  • Posts: 1129
  • Joined: 01 May 2017, 09:07

Unread post29 Sep 2022, 16:35

First evidence of UKR use of Starlink.

+

milosh wrote:...
But he is okey I want to fortified what I took and maybe took something else (one big city for example Odesa) then it could be big problem for Ukraine.


To take Odesa? With what? VDV riding on Iranian drone? Black Sea marines driving Moskva?

+

BTR-3?

+

Kraken SOF in Kharkiv operation. Full length video. Warning: a very little bit of graphic.

https://www.mojevideo.sk/video/38a58/uk ... kleja.html

+

This is a large European war, something we thought we would not see, ... It’s trench warfare, like World War One. And it’s for the existence of Ukraine as a state. The implications are enormous. This will shape the rest of the twenty-first century. If Russia loses, or it doesn’t get what it wants, it will be a different Russia afterward. If Russia wins, it will be a different Europe afterward. The scope and complications of the war foreclose a quick resolution. This is what made World War One so big, this is what made World War Two so big, ... It’s not just ‘I want a piece of territory because my ethnic brethren are there.’


https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annal ... -might-end

Rest of the article is not as remarkable.

+

Reportedly, Wagner commander Alexei Nagin, call sign “Terek”, was killed near Bakhmut on September 20. A close associate of Yevgeny Prigozhin, he had fought in Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine, Syria & Libya.

No conformation from RUS source yet.

+

One mother hitchhiked to Zaporizhzhia, got permission from Ukrainian authorities to cross into Russian-controlled territories, made her way to Crimea and across to Russia, all the way to Gelendzhik, the seaside resort town where many of the children remain to this day.

There she found her daughter, but camp authorities refused to give her permission to take her daughter away. They told her: "We will not allow you to take your child to Ukraine."

She signed a document promising to stay in Russia, picked up the girl, and managed to get them both out the same way she came, through the occupied territories, the war zone, and back to Ukraine.

Russian soldiers spoke harshly at the checkpoints, but let them through, said the woman.

"We will burn your country to ash," the woman said the Russians told her. But she managed to get herself and her teenage daughter back to Izyum.


https://news.sky.com/story/mother-hitch ... d-12707773

This is something remarkable.
Attachments
starlink.jpg
Starlink
btr3.jpg
BTR-3
Offline
User avatar

ricnunes

Elite 4K

Elite 4K

  • Posts: 4459
  • Joined: 02 Mar 2017, 14:29

Unread post29 Sep 2022, 20:05

zhangmdev wrote:First evidence of UKR use of Starlink.

+

milosh wrote:...
But he is okey I want to fortified what I took and maybe took something else (one big city for example Odesa) then it could be big problem for Ukraine.


To take Odesa? With what? VDV riding on Iranian drone? Black Sea marines driving Moskva?



LoL. That's (taking Odessa) the joke of the year, here in this forum! :lmao: :doh:
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
Offline

zhangmdev

Elite 1K

Elite 1K

  • Posts: 1129
  • Joined: 01 May 2017, 09:07

Unread post29 Sep 2022, 21:01

The surviving OMON, mentioned previously, went on to shoot civilian cars, killed 11 and injured 15 people. How brave!

https://viraltab.news/war-in-ukraine-uk ... %ef%bf%bc/
Offline

daswp

Active Member

Active Member

  • Posts: 133
  • Joined: 17 Dec 2020, 05:44

Unread post30 Sep 2022, 01:32

zhangmdev wrote:The surviving OMON, mentioned previously, went on to shoot civilian cars, killed 11 and injured 15 people. How brave!

https://viraltab.news/war-in-ukraine-uk ... %ef%bf%bc/

They better hope the never get caught by the Ukraines. Their future travel abroad are also cancelled.
Offline

zhangmdev

Elite 1K

Elite 1K

  • Posts: 1129
  • Joined: 01 May 2017, 09:07

Unread post30 Sep 2022, 06:03

UKR Su-24M was shot down. Crew ejected.

+

RUS source:

The situation under the Lyman is extremely difficult. The enemy strikes the main blow near Yampil and Torskye, with the aim of finally cutting the Kremennaya-Lyman highway and encircling our troops. Attacks with large forces with the support of artillery, HIMARS and armored vehicles. Today will be a very difficult night and tomorrow a very difficult day.
Offline

hornetfinn

Elite 4K

Elite 4K

  • Posts: 4273
  • Joined: 13 Mar 2013, 08:31
  • Location: Finland

Unread post30 Sep 2022, 06:41

zhangmdev wrote:UKR Su-24M was shot down. Crew ejected.


Video of that can be seen here:


Tough bird and pretty impressive footage. Interesting how those MANPAD missiles are shot to different directions. I don't think they are targeting that particular Su-24M but probably there are other aircraft they are trying to shoot down.
Offline

hornetfinn

Elite 4K

Elite 4K

  • Posts: 4273
  • Joined: 13 Mar 2013, 08:31
  • Location: Finland

Unread post30 Sep 2022, 07:22

ricnunes wrote:
milosh wrote:so it isn't really that bad and as Rumsfeld said:
You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.

So if Ukraine have and can add FLIR to ZPU-4 I think they could have not small number of capable drone killers. For sure much more effective then using AKs and PKMs.


The problem is that targeting FLIR systems are expensive and thus a "waste" to be fitted in such old weapons whose performance is questionable against drones like the ZPU-4.
There are other weapons - even also old ones - which IMO are better and where such targeting FLIR could better fit and be more useful. The ZSU-23-4 Shilka would be one of such example. Even a ZSU-23-2 would IMO be better.


Yes, I'd say ZU-23-2 is much better for such conversion. Finland and several other nations have made such modifications for their ZU-23-2s. ZU-23-2 has much better range and hitting power and is also lighter system. Besides thermal camera, you need laser range finder and ballistic computer to actually hit small or maneuvering targets reliably. Performance of say those upgraded ZU-23-2s is much higher than basic ZU-23-2 or machine guns. Ukraine has ZU-23-2s but I don't think they have many ZPU-4s.

I'd say Oerlikon GDF-series guns would be another good option. There are a lot of those guns around and they have performance to shoot down any drone especially in their upgraded forms (with AHEAD rounds) with more advanced fire control systems and sights. Besides Ukraine already has those guns in their Gepard SPAAGs.
Offline

hornetfinn

Elite 4K

Elite 4K

  • Posts: 4273
  • Joined: 13 Mar 2013, 08:31
  • Location: Finland

Unread post30 Sep 2022, 07:34

More info about the latest military aid package from USA:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3173997/senior-defense-and-military-officials-hold-a-background-briefing/


This package of HIMARS, these 18 HIMARS and associated ammunition will constitute a core component of Ukraine's fighting force in the future. One that can deter and defend against all threats. The procurement and deliver of these HIMARS systems and associated ammunition will take a few years. Today's announcement is only the beginning of a procurement process.

Now for most of the other capabilities in this package we expect delivery timelines to be between six and 24 months. So now I'll go through those capabilities.


About those radars and counter-UAS:
In addition, we're providing two radars for unmanned aerial systems. Now these particular radars will enhance Ukraine's existing unmanned aerial systems by augmenting their surveillance and employment range.

We're providing 20 multi-mission radars. These are radars that can track a number of airborne objects and threats, including mortar and artillery fire, as well as UAS systems, Unmanned Aerial Systems.

And then we're also providing a suite of counter unmanned aerial systems. So this suite of counter UAS capabilities will be able to detect, track, and disrupt unmanned aerial systems.


Some more details:
In the maritime domain we're seeing about a half dozen ships that are on the way in the Black Sea, about half of those that are caliber capable. And then in the air we continue to assess that the air space over Ukraine remains contested, which is a big deal.

In training, now up over -- upwards of 2,000 Ukrainians that have been trained by us to include about 500 that have been trained on HIMARS.


500 trained on HIMARS... That means they could have up to 80 HIMARS with dual crews. So they definitely can have all their vehicles manned at all times and also rotate crews to rest and refit etc. They can also introduce more HIMARS systems if they get them without much problems. Now they have 16, so they could easily double that and they'd still have no serious problems manning them. I expect Ukraine receive some more HIMARS directly from US stocks pretty soon.
Offline

hornetfinn

Elite 4K

Elite 4K

  • Posts: 4273
  • Joined: 13 Mar 2013, 08:31
  • Location: Finland

Unread post30 Sep 2022, 07:37

And more info about German IRIS-T SLM systems:
https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/861595.html

The IRIS-T air defense systems are manufactured specifically for Ukraine, and they are not in service with the German army, said German Ambassador to Ukraine Anka Feldhuzen.

"The Bundeswehr does not have them. I don't know if I'm answering correctly, but we are inside NATO and the air defense is kind of around us. When I was in Poland, I saw all these Patriots and others, I've never seen them in Germany," Feldhuzen said in an interview with European Truth.

According to her, the first system will probably be delivered in October, the second - before the end of the year.

"They are being produced now, and I really hope that the second one will be before the end of the year, and the rest next year. It does not depend on political will, the decision has been clearly made there. These are the latest systems, but the supply chain for production is difficult," the ambassador explained.

The IRIS-T SLM system has a range of 40 kilometers and an altitude of up to 20 kilometers. With the IRIS-T SLM, one can shoot down combat aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles, rocket artillery, drones, anti-radar missiles.


With 2 NASAMS batteries and 2 IRIS-T SLM batteries received this year, Ukranian air defences gets pretty good boost although naturally they will need significantly more.
Offline

zhangmdev

Elite 1K

Elite 1K

  • Posts: 1129
  • Joined: 01 May 2017, 09:07

Unread post30 Sep 2022, 07:45

4 GTD again.

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/20 ... ntldsk.cnn

+

Bridge at Sviatohirsk. Nice place. All destroyed.

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/20 ... -conflict/

+

Rybar: RUS retreating from Drobysheve and Yampil to Lyman.

Is Putin going to airdrop a Field Marshal's Baton into Lyman?

+

UKR in Yampil

+

RUS strike civilian convoy waiting to pass from Zaporizhzhia to the occupied zone. At least 24 dead, 36 injured.

+

Trapped In Lyman are the following Russian units:

- 20th Guards Combined Arms Army
- BARS Special Combat Army Reserve
- LPR militias

Estimated: 2,000 - 3,500 troops

+

one of the biggest social problems in Russia right now in relation to the mobilization is a growing political eschatology among the Russian people: They consider the war in Ukraine as the ultimate confrontation between Moscow and the West for the survival of the Russian state at all costs. Trying to relieve their cognitive dissonance in the face of the illegal war, growing economic turbulence and mobilization, many Russians spread the thesis that the Russian army in Ukraine is fighting directly against NATO forces and that this war has been inevitable since 1991—when, according to the myth, the Soviet Union collapsed mainly due to Western influence operations and not interim political, economic and societal factors. The Kremlin has created this thesis and maintains it, but growing sectarian thinking in Russian society does not mean a consolidation around the flag but rather poses a threat of further societal fragmentation and even the eventual decay of the Russian state.


https://jamestown.org/program/mobilizat ... chatology/

+

The head of the DPR Pushilin:

Yampol and Drobyshevo are not fully controlled by the Allied forces

+

MT-12 100mm AT gun + MT-LB = improvised Sturmgeschütz
Attachments
4gtd.jpg
4th Guards Tank Division sign
sviatohirsk.jpg
Sviatohirsk Monastery
yampil.jpg
Yampil
zaporizhzhia.jpeg
Zaporizhzhia convoy
mt-12.jpeg
MT-12 Rapira
Offline

zhangmdev

Elite 1K

Elite 1K

  • Posts: 1129
  • Joined: 01 May 2017, 09:07

Unread post30 Sep 2022, 12:51

The only way out of the 'cauldron' is through Torskoye, which is under enemy fire control. The day before, the 503rd Guards Mortorized Rifle Regiment from the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army was deployed to the site. trying to expand the 'noose' that had gathered around Liman.

The is what RUS source says.
PreviousNext

Return to Air Power

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 27 guests