Russia-Ukraine War 2022

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zhangmdev

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Unread post28 Sep 2022, 15:54

Despite all the horror stories, the mobilization is going on very well. The lack of supplies is expected. Russia did not have resources to adequately equip, train, and resupply the 190,000 initial invasion force, no one should expect they can handle 300,000 - 1,200,000 more. They want more meat, and they have a lot more. Countless men from all corners of the Russian empire, yound and old, willingly or not, are leaving their homes and families to live in camps, wearing field green and carrying literally AK-47. For whatever reasons, they are contented with the hardship in the battlefield and the potential fate of dying in the mud of another country. Anachronistic but very fitting to an empire bending on expansion.

Like the 'referendum', the mobilization is mainly a posture, triggered by the recent military defeat, to show Russia will not accept losing no matter what. It legalized the what they have been doing covertly. It has no meaningful impact on the battlefield in the short term. The long term impact? Nobody knows. Peviously, the leadership and elite were merely playing with the military, now they are gambling away people's lives.

+

UKR has 240mm mortar too, albeit a museum piece. Previously they captured a number of 240mm mortar shells.
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milosh

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Unread post28 Sep 2022, 20:19

ricnunes wrote:The "problem" with the ZPU-4 14.5mm is the rate of fire (600 rounds per minute) which is for example much smaller compared to the 20mm C-RAM (4,500 round per minute) for essentially a similar range which like you say lowers the probability of hitting drones at a distance even compared to Centurion C-RAM.
The 35mm gun (from Skyshield 35) has a higher rate of fire (1,000 rounds per minute) than ZPU-4 while having a bigger range which also makes it (much) better in dealing with drones at a distance.


ZPU-4 is quadruple mount so it have four MG, 2400rounds per min, so it isn't really that bad and as Rumsfeld said:
You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.

So if Ukraine have and can add FLIR to ZPU-4 I think they could have not small number of capable drone killers. For sure much more effective then using AKs and PKMs.

C-RAM and others are more capable but you need numbers.
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zhangmdev

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Unread post28 Sep 2022, 21:03

The US Department of Defense will be providing another 18 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) launchers and associated ammunition to Ukraine as part of the newest Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) package.

The additional security assistance is worth approximately $1.1 billion, the Pentagon said, adding it underscored the US commitment to continuing to support Ukraine over the long term.

Capabilities that will be procured under the September package include the 18 HIMARS launchers, 150 Humvees, 150 tactical vehicles to tow weapons, 40 trucks and 80 trailers to transport heavy equipment, two radars for UAS, multi-mission radars, counter-UAS, communication systems, and explosive ordnance disposal equipment, among other items.

This announcement represents the beginning of a contracting process to provide additional priority capabilities to Ukraine in the mid- and long-term.

It represents a multi-year investment in critical capabilities to build the enduring strength of Ukraine’s Armed Forces as it continues to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty and territory in the face of Russian aggression.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/R ... r-ukraine/
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icemaverick

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Unread post28 Sep 2022, 21:41

zhangmdev wrote:Despite all the horror stories, the mobilization is going on very well. The lack of supplies is expected. Russia did not have resources to adequately equip, train, and resupply the 190,000 initial invasion force, no one should expect they can handle 300,000 - 1,200,000 more. They want more meat, and they have a lot more. Countless men from all corners of the Russian empire, yound and old, willingly or not, are leaving their homes and families to live in camps, wearing field green and carrying literally AK-47. For whatever reasons, they are contented with the hardship in the battlefield and the potential fate of dying in the mud of another country. Anachronistic but very fitting to an empire bending on expansion.

Like the 'referendum', the mobilization is mainly a posture, triggered by the recent military defeat, to show Russia will not accept losing no matter what. It legalized the what they have been doing covertly. It has no meaningful impact on the battlefield in the short term. The long term impact? Nobody knows. Peviously, the leadership and elite were merely playing with the military, now they are gambling away people's lives.

+

UKR has 240mm mortar too, albeit a museum piece. Previously they captured a number of 240mm mortar shells.


Russia is hoping Ukraine will run out of bullets before they run out of warm bodies.
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charlielima223

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Unread post29 Sep 2022, 03:24

icemaverick wrote:
zhangmdev wrote:Despite all the horror stories, the mobilization is going on very well. The lack of supplies is expected. Russia did not have resources to adequately equip, train, and resupply the 190,000 initial invasion force, no one should expect they can handle 300,000 - 1,200,000 more. They want more meat, and they have a lot more. Countless men from all corners of the Russian empire, yound and old, willingly or not, are leaving their homes and families to live in camps, wearing field green and carrying literally AK-47. For whatever reasons, they are contented with the hardship in the battlefield and the potential fate of dying in the mud of another country. Anachronistic but very fitting to an empire bending on expansion.

Like the 'referendum', the mobilization is mainly a posture, triggered by the recent military defeat, to show Russia will not accept losing no matter what. It legalized the what they have been doing covertly. It has no meaningful impact on the battlefield in the short term. The long term impact? Nobody knows. Peviously, the leadership and elite were merely playing with the military, now they are gambling away people's lives.

+

UKR has 240mm mortar too, albeit a museum piece. Previously they captured a number of 240mm mortar shells.


Russia is hoping Ukraine will run out of bullets before they run out of warm bodies.


That seems to be one of the main strategies for Russian military (as well as China) for a while. I point out again that winter is coming soon and no doubt Ukraine is using this time of year to take advantage of where they can. I would think the winter time would allow both powers to regroupt, rearm, and refit for the next year. Traditionally winter was what has been able to save the Russian military from defeat... I wonder how IF that will be the case this time around.
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zhangmdev

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Unread post29 Sep 2022, 06:37

It is already very muddy.

+

No. Winter, when the ground is frozen solid, is better for armored warfare. Some major offensive operations during WW2 and Korean war happened in the dead of winter. RUS logistics is beep, checkout the food, clothing, shelter of their foot soldiers. Supply problem was a major cause to the failure this spring. This winter will be very hard for them. The simple urge for hot food and warm shelter will lead to mass desertion.
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hornetfinn

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Unread post29 Sep 2022, 06:44

charlielima223 wrote:
icemaverick wrote:Russia is hoping Ukraine will run out of bullets before they run out of warm bodies.


That seems to be one of the main strategies for Russian military (as well as China) for a while. I point out again that winter is coming soon and no doubt Ukraine is using this time of year to take advantage of where they can. I would think the winter time would allow both powers to regroupt, rearm, and refit for the next year. Traditionally winter was what has been able to save the Russian military from defeat... I wonder how IF that will be the case this time around.


I think there is very good chance that the winter will be really bad for Russian military in Ukraine. They seem to have serious lack of good clothing for their soldiers and pressing even more of those soldier to the fight will mean not many of those will have good winter gear. They probably bring their own clothes and boots which will help keep them warm but most civilian clothes are not very good for combat. I think Ukraine will become stronger during the winter and Russia will gradually become weaker and weaker.
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zhangmdev

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Unread post29 Sep 2022, 11:37

The Kremlin says Putin will sign decrees tomorrow at 3pm local time to “annex” the four regions of partially-occupied southeastern Ukraine where sham “referendums” were held at gun point. Putin will also deliver a speech via state propaganda agency RIA.
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hornetfinn

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Unread post29 Sep 2022, 11:59

New military assistance package for Ukraine from USA:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3173378/11-billion-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Capabilities include:

18 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and associated ammunition;
150 Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
150 Tactical Vehicles to tow weapons;
40 trucks and 80 trailers to transport heavy equipment;
Two radars for Unmanned Aerial Systems;
20 multi-mission radars;
Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems;
Tactical secure communications systems, surveillance systems, and optics;
Explosive ordnance disposal equipment;
Body armor and other field equipment;
Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.


I wonder if the multi-mission radars are HAMMRs or KuRFS...? Both would be really good for counter-UAS...
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milosh

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Unread post29 Sep 2022, 12:05

hornetfinn wrote:
charlielima223 wrote:
icemaverick wrote:Russia is hoping Ukraine will run out of bullets before they run out of warm bodies.


That seems to be one of the main strategies for Russian military (as well as China) for a while. I point out again that winter is coming soon and no doubt Ukraine is using this time of year to take advantage of where they can. I would think the winter time would allow both powers to regroupt, rearm, and refit for the next year. Traditionally winter was what has been able to save the Russian military from defeat... I wonder how IF that will be the case this time around.


I think there is very good chance that the winter will be really bad for Russian military in Ukraine. They seem to have serious lack of good clothing for their soldiers and pressing even more of those soldier to the fight will mean not many of those will have good winter gear. They probably bring their own clothes and boots which will help keep them warm but most civilian clothes are not very good for combat. I think Ukraine will become stronger during the winter and Russia will gradually become weaker and weaker.


Problem with theory of Russian military will be weaker is influx of reserves, I watch what Russian ytubers are saying (those left country) it look like 300.000 reservist is Soygu Putin BS for babushka and dedushka in fact they plan to mobilize lot more Russians, around million requiest were send and they expect around 900.000 reservists! This explain rusty AKs, awful barracks *built in couple of days as it look like) and lack of everything, if they plan only on 300.000 those problems wouldn't be widespread.

That is three times of what was published, I doubt they will at least in start go all in but 3x300.000 allow then to rotate troops which is very important. And if someone ask them they can say well we said 300.000 reservists will be always involved in war.

Also pressure on profesional troops will be much lower. So we are entering in new phase of grinding war, and there are always consript option if Putin accept those regions as part of Russia he can send not small number of constripts as secondary or third echelon soldiers primarily for logistics, most of Russian army logistics is based on constripts btw and this represent it quite well:


:mrgreen:

I really don't think Ukraine can win but they need to be able to survive until sanctions start hitting poorer Russian population. Right now sanctions hit middle class folks which aren't many in Russia and which are more pro western. Oligarhs really don't give a f. for sanctions they stole so much and they fear of Putin too. Some which talked against "SMO" died in strange ways.
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Unread post29 Sep 2022, 12:21

More info about this latest package:
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3173752/latest-us-support-for-ukraine-targets-long-term-security-investment/

The latest USAI package includes 18 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, along with associated ammunition. Being part of USAI, the United States will purchase those systems from the manufacturer in order to provide them to Ukraine, rather than pull them directly from U.S. military inventory, as has been done previously with the 16 HIMARS sent to Ukraine under presidential drawdown authority.

It may take a while for the latest HIMARS promised to Ukraine to arrive, the senior defense official said.

"The procurement and delivery of these HIMARS systems and associated ammunition will take a few years," the official said. "Today's announcement is only the beginning of a procurement process."

While the long-term purchase of newly manufactured HIMARS for Ukraine doesn't preclude the U.S. from continuing to pull existing systems from inventory if need be, it does serve a larger purpose to have those systems on contract and in the pipeline for delivery at a later date, the official said.


So these are not going to help in this war but will be used to build up and support Ukranian armed forces in the future.
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zhangmdev

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Unread post29 Sep 2022, 13:14

milosh wrote:...
Also pressure on profesional troops will be much lower. So we are entering in new phase of grinding war, and there are always consript option if Putin accept those regions as part of Russia he can send not small number of constripts as secondary or third echelon soldiers primarily for logistics, most of Russian army logistics is based on constripts btw...


This is the theory about how RUS mobiliks will be effectively used. This is nothing new. Non-regular troops have been involved from day one. A bunch of OMON from Siberia were killed on the road to Kiev.

https://thedebrief.org/know-no-mercy-th ... hemselves/

More from Sakhalin were killed in Lysychansk. SOBR was in Balakiya where the breakthrough of Kharkiv offensive happened. Plus LDPR volunteers and mobiliks, Wagnerites, Kadyrovites, FSB, etc. Their number has been greatly reduced.

The annexation makes it legal to send constripts to Ukraine, to replenish the manpower so the SMO can keep going. And they can legally mobilize in the occupied zone, forcing Ukrainians fighting each other. Again, this is unlikely to shfit the balance. This is not RUS starting using 'the full force'. This is another throw of dice to avoid losing.
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ricnunes

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Unread post29 Sep 2022, 13:36

milosh wrote:ZPU-4 is quadruple mount so it have four MG, 2400rounds per min,


ZPU-4's 600 rounds per minute per barrel is the cyclic rate of fire or using other words, the maximum possible rate of fire. Or putting into another perspective, a weapon like the ZPU firing at its cyclic rate of fire in a sustained and continuous way (necessary to shot down drones) will quickly wear off and damage its barrels.
The ZPU-4's practical or sustained rate of fire is 150 rounds per minute per barrel or the 600 rounds per minute (combined) that I mentioned in my last post.
Source:
https://old.weaponsystems.net/weaponsys ... 20ZPU.html

For sure, they are better than AKs and PKMs but:

milosh wrote:so it isn't really that bad and as Rumsfeld said:
You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.

So if Ukraine have and can add FLIR to ZPU-4 I think they could have not small number of capable drone killers. For sure much more effective then using AKs and PKMs.


The problem is that targeting FLIR systems are expensive and thus a "waste" to be fitted in such old weapons whose performance is questionable against drones like the ZPU-4.
There are other weapons - even also old ones - which IMO are better and where such targeting FLIR could better fit and be more useful. The ZSU-23-4 Shilka would be one of such example. Even a ZSU-23-2 would IMO be better.

Or, better yet:

milosh wrote:C-RAM and others are more capable but you need numbers.


Then send such (and already existing and in service) systems to Ukraine and build new ones (similar to what is happening to HIMARS for example).
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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Unread post29 Sep 2022, 13:49

ricnunes wrote:
milosh wrote:ZPU-4 is quadruple mount so it have four MG, 2400rounds per min,


ZPU-4's 600 rounds per minute per barrel is the cyclic rate of fire or using other words, the maximum possible rate of fire. Or putting into another perspective, a weapon like the ZPU firing at its cyclic rate of fire in a sustained and continuous way (necessary to shot down drones) will quickly wear off and damage its barrels.
The ZPU-4's practical or sustained rate of fire is 150 rounds per minute per barrel or the 600 rounds per minute (combined) that I mentioned in my last post.

The difference between cyclic and sustained ROF is typically 100% controlled by burst length. This is why for automatic systems rps is a better metric than rpm. a 1:4 ratio means one second of fire and three seconds off which makes sense as a shoot-look-shoot methodology anyway. In that one second 40 rounds are sent downrange. You can increase RoF as needed by decreasing down time too. Sustained RoF is to maximize barrel life, exceeding it does not cause instant failure.
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ricnunes

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Unread post29 Sep 2022, 14:25

sprstdlyscottsmn wrote:The difference between cyclic and sustained ROF is typically 100% controlled by burst length. This is why for automatic systems rps is a better metric than rpm. a 1:4 ratio means one second of fire and three seconds off which makes sense as a shoot-look-shoot methodology anyway. In that one second 40 rounds are sent downrange. You can increase RoF as needed by decreasing down time too. Sustained RoF is to maximize barrel life, exceeding it does not cause instant failure.


Yes, I agree.

However one of my points was if I'm not mistaken that those Soviet-Era AA/machine guns like the ZPU can have their barrels easily cooked off when firing just a few long(er) bursts, this as opposed to other more modern AA/machine guns. So their real real of fire is much lower than the "theoretical" rate of fire per minute compared again to other more modern AA or machine guns.
Last edited by ricnunes on 29 Sep 2022, 15:11, edited 1 time in total.
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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