Is Russia STILL a serious competitor, in Mil aviation?

[jessmo112]

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... er-offers/

I could not help but notice the various pitches in the Finnish comp, that all sound so great on paper.
This brought up a question.

Do the Russians still have it?
If you had a country being courted by the east and west (Like India) could they even come close? Lets look at the offerings.

Su-35: A great plane but it doesn't have the Euro-fighters or F-35s numbers, or stealth.
It doesn't have the Griffens affordability.
Su-50: This plane is a little bit better, but we wont see 100 of these until 2030. Its Its likely to be more exspensive than the F-35 but less capable.
What ever happened to Russian aviation?
How come, China, Turkey, SAAB, and SK. Can all produce good designs, but the Russians have had only 1 new fighter design since the cold war ended.

[Corsair1963]

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/05/03/finnish-officials-begin-sifting-through-final-hx-fighter-offers/

I could not help but notice the various pitches in the Finnish comp, that all sound so great on paper.
This brought up a question.

Do the Russians still have it?
If you had a country being courted by the east and west (Like India) could they even come close? Lets look at the offerings.

Su-35: A great plane but it doesn't have the Euro-fighters or F-35s numbers, or stealth.
It doesn't have the Griffens affordability.
Su-50: This plane is a little bit better, but we wont see 100 of these until 2030. Its Its likely to be more exspensive than the F-35 but less capable.
What ever happened to Russian aviation?
How come, China, Turkey, SAAB, and SK. Can all produce good designs, but the Russians have had only 1 new fighter design since the cold war ended.

It's all about money of the lack there of.........

[jessmo112]

It cant be just money.
Turkey and SK are both behind in gdp.
But both designs look superior to Russia.
I think its also talent and culture

[jessmo112]

All current and future contemporary designs look superior to Russian ones.

[Corsair1963]

Screenshot_20210503-173917_Chrome.jpg

It cant be just money.
Turkey and SK are both behind in gdp.
But both designs look superior to Russia.
I think its also talent and culture

Canada is ahead of Russia.....

[mixelflick]

Screenshot_20210503-173917_Chrome.jpg

It cant be just money.
Turkey and SK are both behind in gdp.
But both designs look superior to Russia.
I think its also talent and culture

Canada is ahead of Russia.....

Let's not go too far, LOL..

Russia's ability to craft great airframes was still there as late as a decade ago. Stealth put a major, major handicap on them at that point IMO. For all of its beauty and innovation, they just can't produce SU-57's to the necessary tolerances. Even if they could, they purposely didn't spend a lot of $ on stealth due to well, not having the money. That's why when India left it was such a blow to the program. They were only going to go so far as they available rubles would take them. And since Russia itself has plans for less than a hundred, any country purchasing it wouldn't achieve economies of scale, nor any kind of logistics network or easy/inexpensive upgrades as their fleet ages. Hell, the so called 2nd stage engine won't be available for another 2-3 years (if then), so there's more $ to re-engine your fleet. In summary, any country that does its due diligence on the SU-57 and still acquires it is nuts. Any future deliveries to these nation-states should also be accompanied by at least 2 AN-124's ​full of mothballs..

That leaves countries to pick from up-rated Mig-29's and Flankers. Since neither of these is stealth the Russians tout hypersonic AAM's with 400km ranges, etc.. Of course, this is going to be uber-expensive too and your fleet still isn't competitive with any nation flying F-35's. Worse for the Russians, the Chinese J-10B/C is going to probably be far cheaper, carry much better avionics and long range missiles too. The Fulcrum/Flanker fleet flying 10 years from now is only going to be less relevant for these and other reasons, and they'll age incredibly fast.

BOTTOM LINE: I love their engineers over there, for their ability to get the most out of the least rubles. But they can only go so far, and as a result Russia is slowly but surely being squeezed out of the international arms market, at least when it comes to high end combat aircraft..

[milosh]

Good thing for Russia is China can't enter in their fighter market, all Flanker users in Asia have problems with China and not small problems.

Also Flankers are still quite potent airframes with nice upgrade path.

I doubt anyone will buy Su-57 without new engine expect RuAF and that is small order so most of Su-57 will be with new engines.

It isn't logical to get Su-57 with AL-41, it wouldn't be VLO then, no stealthy nozzles no advanced radar blocker. Both things are developed only for AL-51.

So I really doubt if Algeria bought Su-57 or plan to sign deal it would be with AL-41 engine.

India is totally different story they don't have funds to go with stealths becuase of all other programs they finance. They are buying Rafales (politics and offsets) getting Tejas and planing big upgrade for Su-30MKI fleet with Su-57 tech. Also there is future medium fighter program for airforce but also future carrier fighter for navy two different programs!

And don't underestimate Su-57 only because it doesn't look like F-22, Su-57 is more like F-23, flat airframe, huge wing, exotic tail, radar blocker instead S-duct.

[charlielima223]

And don't underestimate Su-57 only because it doesn't look like F-22, Su-57 is more like F-23, flat airframe, huge wing, exotic tail, radar blocker instead S-duct.

Both the F-22 and YF-23 were designed to be as stealthy as possible. Russia's Su-57 was designed to be stealthy enough. We've had these discussions many times before. So no, the Su-57 is NOTHING like the YF-23. Stop pushing that lie please.

[Corsair1963]

Good thing for Russia is China can't enter in their fighter market, all Flanker users in Asia have problems with China and not small problems.

Also Flankers are still quite potent airframes with nice upgrade path.

I doubt anyone will buy Su-57 without new engine expect RuAF and that is small order so most of Su-57 will be with new engines.

It isn't logical to get Su-57 with AL-41, it wouldn't be VLO then, no stealthy nozzles no advanced radar blocker. Both things are developed only for AL-51.

So I really doubt if Algeria bought Su-57 or plan to sign deal it would be with AL-41 engine.

India is totally different story they don't have funds to go with stealths becuase of all other programs they finance. They are buying Rafales (politics and offsets) getting Tejas and planing big upgrade for Su-30MKI fleet with Su-57 tech. Also there is future medium fighter program for airforce but also future carrier fighter for navy two different programs!

And don't underestimate Su-57 only because it doesn't look like F-22, Su-57 is more like F-23, flat airframe, huge wing, exotic tail, radar blocker instead S-duct.

LOL

Honestly, you need to cut back on the Medication.

As the Su-57 is really nothing more than a Semi-Stealthy Flanker. It's clearly LO at best and not remotely close to the VLO F-22 and F-35. As a matter of fact in the West it hardly raises an eyebrow!

While, the Chinese J-20 and forthcoming J-31 are becoming at very least a modest concern. Drawing ever and ever more attention from Western Defense Experts.

This is not to say the Chinese Stealth Fighters are better than the American F-22 and F-35. The more important question is just how close have they come??? This is the real concern and with many unanswered questions in that regard.

China is making great process and it be very unwise to underestimate them and clearly moving past Russia in many respects.

Lastly, many see China taking over much of the Non-Western Fighter Market from Russia in the coming decade. As the latter has very little to offer. Other than the very flawed Su-57. Which, is drawing little to no interest and absolutely no "orders". This while China on the other hand has the J-20 and soon to be J-31. That is followed by near endless funding and many other projects.

In plain truth Russia is falling further and further behind. While, China is accelerating and growing.

[hornetfinn]

Russia's ability to craft great airframes was still there as late as a decade ago. Stealth put a major, major handicap on them at that point IMO.

Agreed. I think this is similar to what happened with Soviet Union. They were pretty competitive until integrated circuits and microelectronics became major part of aircraft avionics and systems. They started to gradually get more and more behind in avionics systems after that. Soviets were smart though and they did compensate by going bigger (MiG-25, MiG-31, Su-27) and designing single-role systems instead of more complex multi-role designs. However both solutions have drawbacks and they did try to make more multi-role systems but just didn't have electronics to allow that.

I think stealth is similar or even worse problem for current Russia. Designing stealth aircraft is very expensive and manufacturing is extremely demanding. There is no similar workarounds as in the case of avionics systems. They did their best and designed an aircraft (Su-57) with reduced signatures, good kinematic performance potential and best avionics systems they could do. Problem is that even that is pretty demanding and expensive which leads to low numbers. Of course it's better than staying with 4th generation jets only.

[Corsair1963]

Russia's ability to craft great airframes was still there as late as a decade ago. Stealth put a major, major handicap on them at that point IMO.

Agreed. I think this is similar to what happened with Soviet Union. They were pretty competitive until integrated circuits and microelectronics became major part of aircraft avionics and systems. They started to gradually get more and more behind in avionics systems after that. Soviets were smart though and they did compensate by going bigger (MiG-25, MiG-31, Su-27) and designing single-role systems instead of more complex multi-role designs. However both solutions have drawbacks and they did try to make more multi-role systems but just didn't have electronics to allow that.

I think stealth is similar or even worse problem for current Russia. Designing stealth aircraft is very expensive and manufacturing is extremely demanding. There is no similar workarounds as in the case of avionics systems. They did their best and designed an aircraft (Su-57) with reduced signatures, good kinematic performance potential and best avionics systems they could do. Problem is that even that is pretty demanding and expensive which leads to low numbers. Of course it's better than staying with 4th generation jets only.

Maybe yet who will buy it.........

[milosh]

And don't underestimate Su-57 only because it doesn't look like F-22, Su-57 is more like F-23, flat airframe, huge wing, exotic tail, radar blocker instead S-duct.

Both the F-22 and YF-23 were designed to be as stealthy as possible. Russia's Su-57 was designed to be stealthy enough. We've had these discussions many times before. So no, the Su-57 is NOTHING like the YF-23. Stop pushing that lie please.

Yes we had becuase you and others think you know better then leading Chinese professors and aero engineers? I point out study which consider Su-57 VLO design not worse or better then other models they tested but only if radar blocker and stealth nozzles are used. Without them it is LO design.

And when I point out it stealth nozzles and radar blocker are part for new engine, folks like you were "not possible Su-57 is same as it was when take off" then we saw it with AL-51 in test flight and guess what it have stealth nozzle

Here folks wanted to believe serials will be same as T-50-01 prototype with naked metal and screws, panels which fit is awful for stealth then we saw pictures of second one serial from production line, no naked metal, covered screws,noticeable thick skin, perfect finish.

But nope folks still pushing nonsense story it is stealthy Flanker, I mean if that is point they will do something like Silent Eagle, put weapon bay between Su-35 engines, titled tails. And there you have stealthy Flanker, it already have RAM and composite skin so lot cheaper and easier solution for good enough then Su-57.

Why bother is airframe geometry like planform alignment if you want good enough stealth.

Why bother with complex composite IGV which act as part of radar blocker if you want just good enough.

Why develop complex LOAN nozzle for just good enough.

Why bother with plasma ignited ceramic afterburner if you just want good enough stealth.

Why bother with field canopy shelters with climate control if you just need good enough stealth.

It isn't just good enough stealth, it is stealth, maybe not on level of F-22/F-35 but it is vlo design.

[wrightwing]

You don't get from .5 - .1m^2 to .001m^2 by adding radar blockers and new nozzles.

[XanderCrews]

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/05/03/finnish-officials-begin-sifting-through-final-hx-fighter-offers/

I could not help but notice the various pitches in the Finnish comp, that all sound so great on paper.
This brought up a question.

Do the Russians still have it?
If you had a country being courted by the east and west (Like India) could they even come close? Lets look at the offerings.

Su-35: A great plane but it doesn't have the Euro-fighters or F-35s numbers, or stealth.
It doesn't have the Griffens affordability.
Su-50: This plane is a little bit better, but we wont see 100 of these until 2030. Its Its likely to be more exspensive than the F-35 but less capable.
What ever happened to Russian aviation?
How come, China, Turkey, SAAB, and SK. Can all produce good designs, but the Russians have had only 1 new fighter design since the cold war ended.

it needs to be remembered that one doesn't need much of an air force to give an air force great trouble. This has been demonstrated many times.

[XanderCrews]

Yes we had becuase you and others think you know better then leading Chinese professors and aero engineers?

Wonder why China doesn't buy the PAKFA

I point out study which consider Su-57 VLO design not worse or better then other models they tested but only if radar blocker and stealth nozzles are used. Without them it is LO design.

And when I point out it stealth nozzles and radar blocker are part for new engine, folks like you were "not possible Su-57 is same as it was when take off" then we saw it with AL-51 in test flight and guess what it have stealth nozzle

Here folks wanted to believe serials will be same as T-50-01 prototype with naked metal and screws, panels which fit is awful for stealth then we saw pictures of second one serial from production line, no naked metal, covered screws,noticeable thick skin, perfect finish.

But nope folks still pushing nonsense story it is stealthy Flanker, I mean if that is point they will do something like Silent Eagle, put weapon bay between Su-35 engines, titled tails. And there you have stealthy Flanker, it already have RAM and composite skin so lot cheaper and easier solution for good enough then Su-57.

Why bother is airframe geometry like planform alignment if you want good enough stealth.

Why bother with complex composite IGV which act as part of radar blocker if you want just good enough.

Why develop complex LOAN nozzle for just good enough.

Why bother with plasma ignited ceramic afterburner if you just want good enough stealth.

Why bother with field canopy shelters with climate control if you just need good enough stealth.

It isn't just good enough stealth, it is stealth, maybe not on level of F-22/F-35 but it is vlo design.

Very interesting argument there