Su-57 Felon

[hythelday]

Time will tell, but unless they get it in service before 2025.. it's already late to the party. Frankly, I think the F-35 will get a more powerful motor before the SU-57 does...[/b]

What party are they are going to be late to, and what does the new F-35 engine have to do with it? It ain't the race to the moon you know.

[charlielima223]

What party are they are going to be late to, and what does the new F-35 engine have to do with it? It ain't the race to the moon you know.

Its an arms race.
It would be like fighting with a Sopwith Camels as your mainstay against a foe flying Fw-190 as their backbone fleet and are just on the cusp of mass fielding jet fighters.

[Corsair1963]

Time will tell, but unless they get it in service before 2025.. it's already late to the party. Frankly, I think the F-35 will get a more powerful motor before the SU-57 does...[/b]

What party are they are going to be late to, and what does the new F-35 engine have to do with it? It ain't the race to the moon you know.

You must be kidding???

[hythelday]

What party are they are going to be late to, and what does the new F-35 engine have to do with it? It ain't the race to the moon you know.

Its an arms race.
It would be like fighting with a Sopwith Camels as your mainstay against a foe flying Fw-190 as their backbone fleet and are just on the cusp of mass fielding jet fighters.

Arms race? They lost that one long ago.
F-22s were in service back when best Flanker in the world was still export only Su-30MKI, not found in Russian inventory. Su-30SM started arriving in RuAF inventory in 2012. Su-35S a bit earlier, but still pretty much in last decade. For perspective F-22 was 10 years in, and the final 195th example being produced by December 2011, almost a year before first Su-30SM in RuAF livery took to the skies. F-35B IOC was 2015. RuAF still hasn't got a single fighter with AESA in operational squadrons and only recently did they start to field ARH missiles. They are still flying with R-27 in Syria sometimes.
What will happen if "they don't get it into service by 2025"? Nothing - they are already three decades behind. They are only in trouble if they don't get it into service at all. For them it is important to push that thing into service and start training. It's a win for them if they get the promised second stage engines in this decade have a squadron or two by 2030. The problems start for them if the economic situation gets worse and they have to put the program on hold entirely. Delayed by 10 years and facing technical difficulties? Not a problem really.

Y'all make it sound as if Su-57 was hot on the heels of Western air power, and only recently did it fall behind.
They were never close. They were never planning on producing 100+ a month like the LM does with F-35, even before the sanctions, before oil price crash and before India pulling the plug on FGFA.

They are behind because they were behind and will continue to be behind. They only race against themselves really. Their big market is in Asia, and let me tell you many Asian countries aren't keen on buying Chinese planes for reasons.

They still have Su-30MKs and Su-35 to sell, and will continue to buy for domestic use also. They will continue to iron out issues and building up domestic fleet of Su-57, continuously improving it, as they did with Flankers and almost any other weapon system they have. I promise you that "Su-57" will soon start growing numbres and letters as suffixes soon after it has entered service, Russians also do concurrent development, in their own way.

Now let's talk fighting Fw-190 with Sopwiths - where exactly are you planning to fight Russians? Or maybe point at a map where Russians are going to pick a fight with someone with F-35s? If you plan to take on Russia intself then also be prepared to live in a world with an average temperature higher by a couple thousand degrees. If you plan to help a non-NATO friend in jam then prepare to deal with other things too: neither Georgia nor Ukraine got overwhelmed by Russian airpower.

If it ain't Russians doing the fighting, then again it is a case of "export models with poorly trained crews", however true or false that may be. Regardless, even the best Russian equipment won't help against US/NATO/Western-aligned countries. Iran could have a hundred Su-57 in service tomorrow, do you still think they would put off Israel? Maybe you think South Korea couldn't handle North Korean Su-57s? You gotta be smarter than that. Remember those S-300s and Buks and Tors and Pantsirs that went sky up in the past five years or so in the ME and Caucasus, sometimes lost to the weapons as sophisticated as SATCOM drone and a stand-in bomb? I do. All they have to show for it is a dozen UAVs and a damaged F-16 crashed inside Israel.

[mixelflick]

The way I see it, they're at risk for losing their precious "Asia market"... that's what's different. Let's look at India, for example..

India actually needs 2 new fighters: A stealthy heavyweight that can take on the J-20 and a semi-stealthy medium fighter in sufficient numbers to combat China's J-10's and PAK's JF-17's/F-16's. To date, Russia cannot fulfill either of these needs and India knows it. The common denominator? That 2nd stage engine.. If that doesn't materialize pronto, India (any by extension anyone else in the same position) needs to look elsewhere.

They can't keep selling Flankers forever, because every day that ticks by that aircraft becomes less and less relevant. Especially in a part of the world where the F-35 is proliferating...

[XanderCrews]

Arms race? They lost that one long ago.
F-22s were in service back when best Flanker in the world was still export only Su-30MKI, not found in Russian inventory. Su-30SM started arriving in RuAF inventory in 2012. Su-35S a bit earlier, but still pretty much in last decade. For perspective F-22 was 10 years in, and the final 195th example being produced by December 2011, almost a year before first Su-30SM in RuAF livery took to the skies. F-35B IOC was 2015. RuAF still hasn't got a single fighter with AESA in operational squadrons and only recently did they start to field ARH missiles. They are still flying with R-27 in Syria sometimes.
What will happen if "they don't get it into service by 2025"? Nothing - they are already three decades behind. They are only in trouble if they don't get it into service at all. For them it is important to push that thing into service and start training. It's a win for them if they get the promised second stage engines in this decade have a squadron or two by 2030. The problems start for them if the economic situation gets worse and they have to put the program on hold entirely. Delayed by 10 years and facing technical difficulties? Not a problem really.

Y'all make it sound as if Su-57 was hot on the heels of Western air power, and only recently did it fall behind.
They were never close. They were never planning on producing 100+ a month like the LM does with F-35, even before the sanctions, before oil price crash and before India pulling the plug on FGFA.

They are behind because they were behind and will continue to be behind. They only race against themselves really. Their big market is in Asia, and let me tell you many Asian countries aren't keen on buying Chinese planes for reasons.

They still have Su-30MKs and Su-35 to sell, and will continue to buy for domestic use also. They will continue to iron out issues and building up domestic fleet of Su-57, continuously improving it, as they did with Flankers and almost any other weapon system they have. I promise you that "Su-57" will soon start growing numbres and letters as suffixes soon after it has entered service, Russians also do concurrent development, in their own way.

Now let's talk fighting Fw-190 with Sopwiths - where exactly are you planning to fight Russians? Or maybe point at a map where Russians are going to pick a fight with someone with F-35s? If you plan to take on Russia intself then also be prepared to live in a world with an average temperature higher by a couple thousand degrees. If you plan to help a non-NATO friend in jam then prepare to deal with other things too: neither Georgia nor Ukraine got overwhelmed by Russian airpower.

If it ain't Russians doing the fighting, then again it is a case of "export models with poorly trained crews", however true or false that may be. Regardless, even the best Russian equipment won't help against US/NATO/Western-aligned countries. Iran could have a hundred Su-57 in service tomorrow, do you still think they would put off Israel? Maybe you think South Korea couldn't handle North Korean Su-57s? You gotta be smarter than that. Remember those S-300s and Buks and Tors and Pantsirs that went sky up in the past five years or so in the ME and Caucasus, sometimes lost to the weapons as sophisticated as SATCOM drone and a stand-in bomb? I do. All they have to show for it is a dozen UAVs and a damaged F-16 crashed inside Israel.

it begs the question why the Su-57 "is" at all...

nothing more than a concept demo that got out of control?

[milosh]

India actually needs 2 new fighters: A stealthy heavyweight that can take on the J-20 and a semi-stealthy medium fighter in sufficient numbers to combat China's J-10's and PAK's JF-17's/F-16's. To date, Russia cannot fulfill either of these needs and India knows it. The common denominator? That 2nd stage engine.. If that doesn't materialize pronto, India (any by extension anyone else in the same position) needs to look elsewhere.

If India have your point of view they will get Su-57 and F-35 as soon as they can.

F-35 as fully stealth for operations over Tibet and China and Su-57 stage 1 as stealthy interceptor for head on engagement of Chinese stealthy intruders.

But what India bought? Rafale!?!

So there I don't see how Russia will lose market for Su-57, when India already isn't interested in stealth.

[Corsair1963]

The way I see it, they're at risk for losing their precious "Asia market"... that's what's different. Let's look at India, for example..

India actually needs 2 new fighters: A stealthy heavyweight that can take on the J-20 and a semi-stealthy medium fighter in sufficient numbers to combat China's J-10's and PAK's JF-17's/F-16's. To date, Russia cannot fulfill either of these needs and India knows it. The common denominator? That 2nd stage engine.. If that doesn't materialize pronto, India (any by extension anyone else in the same position) needs to look elsewhere.

They can't keep selling Flankers forever, because every day that ticks by that aircraft becomes less and less relevant. Especially in a part of the world where the F-35 is proliferating...

Honestly, Russia made a colossal mistake. When it decided to develop the Sukhoi PAK-FA (Su-57) over the Mikoyan LMFS. As the latter could have been produced in good numbers and at a fair price. Making it very attractive for export....

Now with the failure of the Su-57 they have virtually nothing to offer! (post 2030) In addition forget about export. What about the domestic market???

This is why I keep saying....That Russia will likely be forced to buy Chinese in the future. With the J-31 being the most likely option. As it could be produced at a modest price and with a good Russian Content. (i.e. Engines, Avionics, and Weapons)

[Corsair1963]

India actually needs 2 new fighters: A stealthy heavyweight that can take on the J-20 and a semi-stealthy medium fighter in sufficient numbers to combat China's J-10's and PAK's JF-17's/F-16's. To date, Russia cannot fulfill either of these needs and India knows it. The common denominator? That 2nd stage engine.. If that doesn't materialize pronto, India (any by extension anyone else in the same position) needs to look elsewhere.

If India have your point of view they will get Su-57 and F-35 as soon as they can.

F-35 as fully stealth for operations over Tibet and China and Su-57 stage 1 as stealthy interceptor for head on engagement of Chinese stealthy intruders.

But what India bought? Rafale!?!

So there I don't see how Russia will lose market for Su-57, when India already isn't interested in stealth.

Really, India is not interested in stealth......


You can bet your bottom dollar India is "very interested" in Stealth. Yet, issue is the Su-57 is a failure, the AMCA will take to long to develop and build, and the F-35 would be very expensive and wouldn't allow a high level of ToT. (or local production)

[milosh]

They bought Rafale and paid a lot of money.

If they want stealth they could buy F-35A in same way, I don't think there is any important transfer of tech with Rafale deal I could be wrong though, or buy Su-57. Su-57 even in this configuration is more stealth then Rafale will ever be.

[sprstdlyscottsmn]

They bought Rafale and paid a lot of money.

If they want stealth they could buy F-35A in same way, I don't think there is any important transfer of tech with Rafale deal I could be wrong though, or buy Su-57. Su-57 even in this configuration is more stealth then Rafale will ever be.

They can't buy F-35A if they are not offered F-35A, and if they thought the Su-57 was worth buying they would not have left partner status on the program. I.E. in India's eyes the Rafale is a better plane to buy right now than the Su-57.

[XanderCrews]

They bought Rafale and paid a lot of money.

If they want stealth they could buy F-35A in same way, I don't think there is any important transfer of tech with Rafale deal I could be wrong though, or buy Su-57. Su-57 even in this configuration is more stealth then Rafale will ever be.

Why would you think India was in the market for only one fighter and Buying Rafale now precludes it from buying any thing else?

India has never operated that way.

[weasel1962]

Budget realities may the limiting factor. Competing funds from navy/army. Many AF programs happening, taking up the remaining budget. Doesn't help when the Rafales cost as much as it did. I'm guessing same reason driving the decision to quit the Su-57.

[Corsair1963]

Sooner or later India is going to have to make a choice. As she can't continue to set on her hands much longer!



In short something has to give......

[hornetfinn]

They bought Rafale and paid a lot of money.

If they want stealth they could buy F-35A in same way, I don't think there is any important transfer of tech with Rafale deal I could be wrong though, or buy Su-57. Su-57 even in this configuration is more stealth then Rafale will ever be.

IAF decided to go with Rafale in 2012, well before F-35 or Su-57 could be bought. At the time Rafale was one of the best multi-role fighters in the world and still is (F-35 being in a league of its own, IMO). Su-57 likely has stealth advantages, but it won't be a better multi-role fighter. F-35 is the only stealth multi-role fighter at the moment and all other operational (or close to it) stealth fighters are mostly air-to-air fighter/interceptors with some fairly modest air-to-ground capability. Rafale also has pretty good air-to-air capability with Meteor and MICA missiles and mature AESA radar along with sensor fusion and very capable EW/countermeasures suite and relatively low RCS.