Su-57 Felon

Military aircraft - Post cold war aircraft, including for example B-2, Gripen, F-18E/F Super Hornet, Rafale, and Typhoon.
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outlaw162

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Unread post17 Dec 2020, 18:30

One more OT (although the SU-57 is a 'Felon') and I'll go away. :mrgreen:

Yes the amount of 'debt' (or whatever it should be called) can and will probably continue to increase, buy as many SU-57s as you want, and is essentially meaningless as long as the GDP continues to increase. Can it? I hope so with all the negative external factors in play these days. I think last I saw, the US 'Debt' to GDP ratio is now 102% and expected to grow to 118%. 77% with 2-3% growth ideal.

Just numbers for me, I live within my means (not everyone can), conscientiously owe absolutely nothing to anybody except when taxes come due, pay off credit card (only two) debt before it accrues interest (banking system loses out here), and have adequate 'resources' ($$$) set aside to cover certain contingencies. The conservative 'resources' draw anywhere from the last peak 3.3% interest down to the current paltry 0.35% interest in some savings accounts.....and as you mention,

the gov would have to ban savings


If the interest rates get much lower, a product of increasing debt/GDP ratio, they essentially will have.
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charlielima223

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Unread post29 Dec 2020, 18:49

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charlielima223

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Unread post31 Dec 2020, 04:07

A little more info here
https://theaviationist.com/2020/12/30/f ... ce-forces/

I found this interesting...
A new engine was specifically developed for the Su-57, known as Izdeliye 30 (literally Product 30), but, since the engine is not yet ready for production and tested only on an earlier prototype, T-50S-2 is still using the Saturn AL-41F-1, derived from the Su-35 Flanker E’s engine. The Product 30, which should provide 18,000 kgf of thrust instead of the 15,000 kgf of the current engine, is supposed to be more efficient than previous designs and able to give the Felon a top speed in excess of Mach 2 and a supercruise capability at Mach 1.3, featuring also 3D thrust vectoring and a “stealthier” nozzle. Production of the Product 30 engine should begin in 2022, with the first serial deliveries of the Product 30-equipped Su-57 in 2023


Some simple knuckle dragger conversion and math has the Su-57 with more powerful motors than the F-22. A quick hop to wiki for some quick reference has them at comparable loaded weight. I find it interesting that both are mach 2+ capable but the F-22 had a higher supercruise speed. The F-119 is reported to be 35000+ class range... makes me wonder what the true thrust output on those engines are
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wrightwing

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Unread post31 Dec 2020, 04:12

charlielima223 wrote:A little more info here
https://theaviationist.com/2020/12/30/f ... ce-forces/

I found this interesting...
A new engine was specifically developed for the Su-57, known as Izdeliye 30 (literally Product 30), but, since the engine is not yet ready for production and tested only on an earlier prototype, T-50S-2 is still using the Saturn AL-41F-1, derived from the Su-35 Flanker E’s engine. The Product 30, which should provide 18,000 kgf of thrust instead of the 15,000 kgf of the current engine, is supposed to be more efficient than previous designs and able to give the Felon a top speed in excess of Mach 2 and a supercruise capability at Mach 1.3, featuring also 3D thrust vectoring and a “stealthier” nozzle. Production of the Product 30 engine should begin in 2022, with the first serial deliveries of the Product 30-equipped Su-57 in 2023


Some simple knuckle dragger conversion and math has the Su-57 with more powerful motors than the F-22. A quick hop to wiki for some quick reference has them at comparable loaded weight. I find it interesting that both are mach 2+ capable but the F-22 had a higher supercruise speed. The F-119 is reported to be 35000+ class range... makes me wonder what the true thrust output on those engines are


Years ago, I used to see them listed as being between 37,000- 39,000lbs class.
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XanderCrews

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Unread post01 Jan 2021, 03:37

milosh wrote:What is funny? They don't want to go down as USSR did. USA on other hand is on excellent track to go like user in 1991. Do you really think your debt can rise forever?



its really not the same animal, the US budgets may shrink but we won't go full USSR collapse. The US will hold together despite tremendous disfunction.

"They" already went down like the USSR, do you mean not go down like the USSR did again? the simple fact is, whatever they are ordering is what they can afford given as even you point out that Russia is broke. And thats what the laughter is about. You can spit it as being "fiscally responsible," or we can spin it as them just being hilariously poor compared to the old days and watching them struggle to put forth even a slightly "respectable" military as the world passes them by. Again.

You don't owe Ivan anything, friend you don't have to defend them and carry their water.

milosh wrote:Russia isn't Soviet Union so they can't get huge number of fighters as in cold war. Orders are lot smaller now. Even Su-35 which is best bang for buck (less then 30millions) isn't get in huge numbers.




its very funny. you just have to look outside your bubble. in fact its actually pretty damning to see you tell us Su-35s are actually amazingly affordable, and even then they can't buy that many. Thats not "fiscal responsibility to avoid collapse" that's just comically sad really.

The US could cut the defense budget in half and it would suck, but they're not that special level of "avoiding collapse spending" level of poor even then.

Wouldn't want to overleverage yourself on a 30 million dollar fighter!
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outlaw162

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Unread post01 Jan 2021, 14:42

Overleverage?

Russia current debt to GDP ratio is 18.9%, one of the lowest in the world. If they wanted the SU-57s or SU-35s or more Vodka, it wouldn't be a big 'fiscal' problem. They're actually very responsible.

I 'spect their government debt resources are more likely being prioritized into cyber ops, probably a more viable and useful weaponization than 10 squadrons of SU-35s or 57s for show. Fighter squadrons, particularly the expeditionary ones, though glamorous, are not necessarily the best measure of military potency these days. You can only control so much physical territory (was that Machiavelli?) anyway.

Maybe if the US would look outside its current bubble, it could learn a few things.
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Unread post01 Jan 2021, 17:18

outlaw162 wrote: Maybe if the US would look outside its current bubble, it could learn a few things.

Sage words indeed, outlaw. This may have been a conversation worth having at one time, but it's too late to make a meaningful difference now, and besides, I have no wish to lead us off topic. Happy new year to all at f-16.net!
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XanderCrews

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Unread post01 Jan 2021, 17:23

outlaw162 wrote:Overleverage?


thats the joke

Russia current debt to GDP ratio is 18.9%, one of the lowest in the world. If they wanted the SU-57s or SU-35s or more Vodka, it wouldn't be a big 'fiscal' problem. They're actually very responsible.

I 'spect their government debt resources are more likely being prioritized into cyber ops, probably a more viable and useful weaponization than 10 squadrons of SU-35s or 57s for show. Fighter squadrons, particularly the expeditionary ones, though glamorous, are not necessarily the best measure of military potency these days. You can only control so much physical territory (was that Machiavelli?) anyway.

Maybe if the US would look outside its current bubble, it could learn a few things.


Image

why? things are going so well! we may be low in the "winning wars" or "defending the country" aspects of military might, but in the "budgeting" and "social justice jobs program for social change" we are doing spectacular.

Machiavelli? not sure, but I do remember a thing about some guy saying that wars aren't supposed to be won, theyre supposed to be continuous
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mixelflick

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Unread post01 Jan 2021, 17:40

Thrust of the new "type 30" or any other engine seems ridiculous to focus on. Let's say the type 30 develops 40,000lbs of thrust in max reheat - 80,000lbs total. Nice, unless of course your fighter weighs more than 80,000lbs loaded for combat.

And let's say the F-119 is "just" 35,000lbs - total of 70,000lbs in reheat. If the Raptor weighs 60,000lbs in similar combat weight configuration.... well isn't that the math lesson? The Raptor has a much better thrust to weight ratio. Which might partially explain why its supercruise is a whopping half a mach higher than what the Felon's might be, assuming those new engines work as advertised.

I do wonder why with such a low drag airframe and the super duper engines it can't supercruise faster. But they've probably done the cost/benefit analysis and determined that extra capability isn't worth having. Besides, the faster they go the faster the closure rate... at which point their avionics not "thinking" as fast as most Western systems will be the real killer...
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XanderCrews

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Unread post01 Jan 2021, 20:16

mixelflick wrote:Thrust of the new "type 30" or any other engine seems ridiculous to focus on. Let's say the type 30 develops 40,000lbs of thrust in max reheat - 80,000lbs total. Nice, unless of course your fighter weighs more than 80,000lbs loaded for combat.

And let's say the F-119 is "just" 35,000lbs - total of 70,000lbs in reheat. If the Raptor weighs 60,000lbs in similar combat weight configuration.... well isn't that the math lesson? The Raptor has a much better thrust to weight ratio. Which might partially explain why its supercruise is a whopping half a mach higher than what the Felon's might be, assuming those new engines work as advertised.

I do wonder why with such a low drag airframe and the super duper engines it can't supercruise faster. But they've probably done the cost/benefit analysis and determined that extra capability isn't worth having. Besides, the faster they go the faster the closure rate... at which point their avionics not "thinking" as fast as most Western systems will be the real killer...



The biggest story of 5th generation airplanes is engines and avionics. Thats where the "money is made" thats where superiority lies
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Unread post01 Jan 2021, 22:12

@outlaw
Dont get me started on how the government is fudging up the economy. It would be a great discussion/debate to be had on the off topic side of the forum.

@XanderCrews
A very well known conservative commentator said that politics and policies are down stream of culture. Looking around, I believe he cannot be more correct. Again, it would be a good discussion/debate in the off topic side of the forum.

Back to the subject at hand. I agree that the secret sauce to 5th gen aircraft is indeed the motor and avionics package (as well as their stealth design). As a layman, the Su-57 is at the cusp of being considered a true 5th gen aircraft. I believe that even IF the engines and avionics for the Su-57 get to where the Russian MoD want it to be, the overall stealth design of the Su-57 will keep it trailing behind F-22, F-35, and even the J-20.
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doge

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Unread post02 Jan 2021, 18:57

I found a video that shows the inside of the Su-57 engine relatively well, so I will post it. 8)
https://youtu.be/kcTg0PsgtsU?t=456
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Su-57 engine.jpg
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doge

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Unread post02 Jan 2021, 20:14

The RAND person says: :roll:
https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/08/russi ... a-5th.html
Russia's Su-57 Heavy Fighter Bomber: Is It Really a Fifth-Generation Aircraft?
by Ryan Bauer and Peter A. Wilson August 17, 2020
The Su-57 aircraft has been in development since 2002 and is considered a key part of Russia's arms export industry as a fifth-generation fighter to compete with rival systems such as America's F-35 aircraft. The jet made its first flight approximately ten years ago, yet the widely advertised system has not yet been incorporated into the Russian military or any foreign militaries despite Russian promises to the contrary. There have been a series of recent test flights of the aircraft, including the deployment of a handful of prototypes to Syria in 2018 and 2019. Apparently the jets did not conduct any live firing or strike missions, while the Kremlin has claimed otherwise without offering evidence. Furthermore, development challenges and recent crashes have continued to delay the advanced fighter bomber's initial operational capability (IOC) until the mid-2020s at the earliest. The head of the Sukhoi Aviation, which develops the Su-57, resigned earlier this year because of development delays, including the December 2019 crash of the first “operational” Su-57 aircraft during a test flight.

The RAND Corporation, a nonprofit research organization, has assembled and analyzed open-source information on Russian arms sales around the globe at the request of the U.S. government to support foreign assistance training and awareness. One of the repeated findings from the analysis is the variety of challenges and setbacks that the Russian Su-57 jet has experienced, decreasing the likelihood of Russia exporting the aircraft before the mid-2020s.

A primary challenge is the development of the jet's second-generation engine. Though designed to incorporate the second-generation Izdeliye 30 engine, current prototypes have been outfitted with an older engine. According to a former aircraft engineer for Sukhoi who later became an independent aviation expert, the 76 “operational” models that the Russian Federation Air Force is expected to receive during the 2020s will not have the intended second-generation engine. It remains unclear when the second-generation engine will be completed. Aside from the advanced engine, the Su-57 is touted as having an all azimuth, a.k.a. 360 degree sensing capacity similar to the F-35. After all, what makes a fifth-generation fighter bomber is not just its low observable (LO) features but also the advanced all azimuth sensor suite. At the present time, only the F-35 has both of these features and is in mass production.

Successful development of these very advanced avionics has and will continue to be a major challenge for the Russian A&D industries. The Russian Federation's A&D industries have a legacy of unsuccessful attempts to absorb the full fruits of the post–Cold War revolution in information technology. This has been further exacerbated by Western sanctions and the divorce of Russian and Ukrainian A&D industries in this regard. Since the Crimea crisis that began in the winter of 2014, the Russian political military leadership has talked the talk about the renationalization and reform of the Russian A&D sector, but results have been modest at best.

A major part of the problem flows from the way the Russian A&D sector is financed. The big conglomerates must borrow from the Russian banking sector to finance the development of the next generation of high-technology combat vehicles, such as the Su-57 fighter bomber. These conglomerates have repeatedly gone into debt to the Russian banks after major weapon development programs have run into difficulties. From time to time the Putin regime has had to “bail-out” these industries, especially since overall defense spending has been tied to income generated by the export of oil and natural gas. That income stream was constricted during the 2015 Saudi-initiated market share war with the introduction of North American fracking energy industries. Recovery from that period of relative defense spending austerity was severely set back by the recent decline of the Russian economy that has been damaged due to drops in oil and gas prices prompted by the global economic shocks caused by the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Not surprisingly, the Russian government has sustained a robust pitch to sell its current-generation combat vehicles and gain financial support through various advanced weapon co-development projects. The marketing and co-development of the Su-57 has been a poster child of this phenomenon. India was the one country that had previously expressed interest in purchasing the aircraft and had entered into a joint development program with Russia in 2007. By 2018, however, India pulled out of the program due to continued delays in development, most notably the failure to develop a second-generation engine, as well as disagreements over the transfer of technology.

Though Russia has continued to court India, the Modi government announced plans to develop its own fifth-generation aircraft, demonstrating that it had no plans to purchase the Su-57. India has indicated that it plans to develop its engines based on French, British, and American models, given that Russia lags behind in engine technologies. This is not to say the Indian market for advanced combat vehicles and weapons has dried up for the Russians. Recently, the Russians were able to sell a relatively small number of Su-30 MKIs and MiG-29s to India, a sale prompted by the summer's violent border clashes between India and China.

Russia has continued to look for other Su-57 markets or co-development partners. These include China, Turkey, Vietnam, and Algeria. At the present time, these overtures have been unsuccessful. In December 2019, there were various reports indicating that Algeria had signed a contract for 12 Su-57 jets, which would make Algeria the first export customer. Several sources, however, have expressed skepticism about whether the deal will occur. One reason is that given how far behind Sukhoi is in delivering Su-57s to the Russian military, Russia will likely struggle to meet the 2025 deadline for Algeria. Another reason is that Algerian law requires imported military aircraft to first be flight-tested in the country, which according to Tom Cooper, an expert on Russian warplanes, is something the Russians would never allow.

Despite continued Russian efforts to sell the aircraft, it is unlikely that a fully developed and full production–ready Su-57 will be available for sale before the late 2020s. Even fully developed, the Su-57 will likely have attributes of another modernized fourth-generation heavy fighter bomber, the F-15EX, lacking in the LO features of the F-35 but having an all azimuth sensing capacity of that fifth-generation combat aircraft.
    Ryan Bauer is a defense analyst and Peter Wilson is an adjunct senior international defense researcher at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation.
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milosh

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Unread post02 Jan 2021, 21:22

mixelflick wrote:Thrust of the new "type 30" or any other engine seems ridiculous to focus on. Let's say the type 30 develops 40,000lbs of thrust in max reheat - 80,000lbs total. Nice, unless of course your fighter weighs more than 80,000lbs loaded for combat.

And let's say the F-119 is "just" 35,000lbs - total of 70,000lbs in reheat. If the Raptor weighs 60,000lbs in similar combat weight configuration.... well isn't that the math lesson?The Raptor has a much better thrust to weight ratio.


How you concluded Su-57 is heavier then F-22?!?

mixelflick wrote:Which might partially explain why its supercruise is a whopping half a mach higher than what the Felon's might be, assuming those new engines work as advertised.


Su-57 super cruise speed isn't public all we have is Su-35:

https://web.archive.org/web/20180218150 ... al-41f-1c/

So Su-35 in clean configuration with noticeable less powerful engine then AL-51 (especially for super cruise) can go supersonic without afterburner of course with smallish weapon load.

Su-57 is otpimazed for supersonic speeds (internal weapon bay, less draggy and design for supercruising) and it is lighter, so it can go faster then Su-35 even with same engines. This is why Mach 1.3 is quite questionable info but how knows what Russians want.

Maybe something like F-23 which could supercruise whole sortie not just dash which was ATF requirement. So maybe they want fighter which normal crusing is supercruise, it wouldn't be strange if you look what size Russia is.

I doubt AL-51 will have lot higher max thrust compared to AL-41/117S, I think big improvement is in dry thurst so I would be very surprise if AL-51 is really 18.000kg engine that is close to F135 which is noticeable bigger engine.
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mixelflick

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Unread post03 Jan 2021, 16:12

milosh wrote:
mixelflick wrote:Thrust of the new "type 30" or any other engine seems ridiculous to focus on. Let's say the type 30 develops 40,000lbs of thrust in max reheat - 80,000lbs total. Nice, unless of course your fighter weighs more than 80,000lbs loaded for combat.

And let's say the F-119 is "just" 35,000lbs - total of 70,000lbs in reheat. If the Raptor weighs 60,000lbs in similar combat weight configuration.... well isn't that the math lesson?The Raptor has a much better thrust to weight ratio.


How you concluded Su-57 is heavier then F-22?!?

It was an example. I'll concede that yes the SU-57 looks to be a bit lighter, but my point still stands - max engine thrust tells us nothing really. It depends on the aircrafts weight, but more importantly drag. The SU-57 looks to be a lot less draggy than the F-22 (I could be wrong). Having said that, its curious as to why the (expected) supercruise figure of 1.3 is so far below that of the Raptors 1.8.

mixelflick wrote:Which might partially explain why its supercruise is a whopping half a mach higher than what the Felon's might be, assuming those new engines work as advertised.


Su-57 super cruise speed isn't public all we have is Su-35:

https://web.archive.org/web/20180218150 ... al-41f-1c/

So Su-35 in clean configuration with noticeable less powerful engine then AL-51 (especially for super cruise) can go supersonic without afterburner of course with smallish weapon load.

Su-57 is otpimazed for supersonic speeds (internal weapon bay, less draggy and design for supercruising) and it is lighter, so it can go faster then Su-35 even with same engines. This is why Mach 1.3 is quite questionable info but how knows what Russians want.

If the Felon's supercruise speed isn't public as you say, then I question how you can make this assumption. It might be higher, but then again - it might not be. Until now, we only have the word of Russian engineers citing an expected mach 1.3

Maybe something like F-23 which could supercruise whole sortie not just dash which was ATF requirement. So maybe they want fighter which normal crusing is supercruise, it wouldn't be strange if you look what size Russia is.

This is an interesting take on the matter. You may be right, but then again they may not be thinking in those terms. Supercruise still eats up a lot more fuel than subsonic cruise, and the difference between mach .95 and 1.2-1.3 is IMO marginal. The difference between mach .95 and 1.8 however, is rather substantial.

I doubt AL-51 will have lot higher max thrust compared to AL-41/117S, I think big improvement is in dry thurst so I would be very surprise if AL-51 is really 18.000kg engine that is close to F135 which is noticeable bigger engine.


Time will tell, but unless they get it in service before 2025.. it's already late to the party. Frankly, I think the F-35 will get a more powerful motor before the SU-57 does...
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