J-20 goes operational again

Military aircraft - Post cold war aircraft, including for example B-2, Gripen, F-18E/F Super Hornet, Rafale, and Typhoon.
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milosh

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Unread post14 Dec 2020, 10:29

F-35 have bigger main weapon bay then F-22.
J31 have smaller main bay then J-20.

So we can say F-35 in weapon load is noticable more capable then F-22, while J-31 is inferior to J-20. That is why I really dont see reason to get J-31 instead J-20. While it will be somewho cheaper it is lot more inferior.

It is like Luftwaffe had choice between Me-109 and Fw-190, it didn't because Fw-190 came later but if they had Fw-190 in mid 1930s they would choice that instead somewhat cheaper but much less capable Me-109.

This is why I point out Chinese would need single engine stealth fighter to PLAAF to select medium stealth instead heavy stealth.

Btw VK-10M was just proposal, that engine never materialized some development continue as RD-33MK (RD-33 upgrade). You have also proposed RD-33MKV that is something like WS-13 but it is still only proposal so it will take time to be developed if it happen at all because RuAF cut expected MiG-35 orders, and Rostec private fighter is single engine design which probable is based around AL-51 so they dumped MiG LMFS which is two engine RD-33MKV design.
Last edited by milosh on 14 Dec 2020, 18:44, edited 1 time in total.
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jessmo112

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Unread post14 Dec 2020, 18:42

download (16).jpeg
Excuse me but where is this RD-93 with 22,000 lbs of thrust? Do yoy mean in reheat? Are you talking about reheat figures? Or dry? Are you talking collectively?
BTW im selling beach front property in The desert where I live here, if your interested. And unicorns.
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milosh

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Unread post14 Dec 2020, 18:48

@jessmo112

Klimov did offered uptuned RD-93 (probable tuned up RD-33MK) which was around 100kN but at cost of service life which is why Pakistan wasn't interested at all. They want RD-33MK which have 4000h service life not one more 1000h engine.

Also Russia isn't interested to allow selling RD-33MK To China/Pakistan for JF-17 because with its low price it is big contender to MiG-29M but when you take in account engine cost MiG-29M became lot more competive and of course it is more capable.

For example when you need to replace both RD-33MK in MiG-29M, JF-17 is on its fourth engine :wink:
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jessmo112

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Unread post14 Dec 2020, 21:40

milosh wrote:@jessmo112

Klimov did offered uptuned RD-93 (probable tuned up RD-33MK) which was around 100kN but at cost of service life which is why Pakistan wasn't interested at all. They want RD-33MK which have 4000h service life not one more 1000h engine.

Also Russia isn't interested to allow selling RD-33MK To China/Pakistan for JF-17 because with its low price it is big contender to MiG-29M but when you take in account engine cost MiG-29M became lot more competive and of course it is more capable.

For example when you need to replace both RD-33MK in MiG-29M, JF-17 is on its fourth engine :wink:


So what your saying is Russia is developing it, but its not likely China will ever get it lawfully.
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sferrin

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Unread post15 Dec 2020, 00:10

jessmo112 wrote:So what your saying is Russia is developing it, but its not likely China will ever get it lawfully.


When has that ever stopped them?
"There I was. . ."
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tphuang

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Unread post15 Dec 2020, 01:26

The lesson of past 25 years is that you cannot plan a new platform around Russia coming up with something new. It's either WS-13 or WS-19 for FC-31.

The problem they ran into is what aircraft they can mass test WS-13 on. It's principal customer would be JF-17, but PLAAF isn't ordering any. PAF already have the entire MRO and support infrastructure built for RD-93. Since WS-13 did not represent an improvement in performance over what Russians can over with RD-93, it made no sense for PAF to invest money in an engine that's likely to be a lot less reliable at this point. So China is left with an engine that's ready for mass production but no immediate customers. And it's unlikely to get much more reliable without being flown by many aircraft.

That's likely to change though. UCAV is a major area of development and they are built around a WS-13 size engine. FC-31's recent prototype also use WS-13.

There is no rush in PLAAF to get FC-31 into service imo. j-20 was needed because they needed a platform to train with/against a LO aircraft. They also needed to learn how to mass produce a LO platform and maintain it. All the lessons they learn from training, tactical development, production, maintenance and repairs can and should be applied to future development of J-20 variants and FC-31 or other LO platforms.

If FC-31 cannot be developed into an aircraft that can at least perform air defense against a F-35-led fleet around Chinese soil, what's the reason for building them? It's not reasonable to expect FC-31 to be as capable as F-35 or J-20. J-20 will have a lot longer range, much higher payload, more power avionics suite and be able to do supercruise once it has the right engine.

But are a group of J-20s going to be better at air defense missions than equal number of FC-31s in an environment supported by large EW aircraft, ground based radar, naval air defense and J-10s/flankers? Or similar, in short range offensive mission against India fleet of Rafale/Su-30s or a similar short mission over East China Sea against JASDF? I don't know. I can see a production FC-31 being a more stealthy aircraft than J-20. If it has better situation awareness than j-20 (by being developed later), it could operate in a fleet and perform air combat missions more effectively.

Klimov did offered uptuned RD-93 (probable tuned up RD-33MK) which was around 100kN but at cost of service life which is why Pakistan wasn't interested at all. They want RD-33MK which have 4000h service life not one more 1000h engine.

this is funny. Even after this many years, China has never been able to actually get anything close to 3000h service life on AL-31s and they never train using maximum thrust on them! And AL-31 has been more reliable than RD-33 series. I wouldn't believe those service life numbers.

From Klimov's own website on RD-33MK
http://www.klimov.ru/en/production/aircraft/RD-33MK/
hp is 7% higher than base model, which means closer to 9000 kgf
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Corsair1963

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Unread post15 Dec 2020, 04:58

milosh wrote:F-35 have bigger main weapon bay then F-22.
J31 have smaller main bay then J-20.

So we can say F-35 in weapon load is noticable more capable then F-22, while J-31 is inferior to J-20. That is why I really dont see reason to get J-31 instead J-20. While it will be somewho cheaper it is lot more inferior.

It is like Luftwaffe had choice between Me-109 and Fw-190, it didn't because Fw-190 came later but if they had Fw-190 in mid 1930s they would choice that instead somewhat cheaper but much less capable Me-109.

This is why I point out Chinese would need single engine stealth fighter to PLAAF to select medium stealth instead heavy stealth.

Btw VK-10M was just proposal, that engine never materialized some development continue as RD-33MK (RD-33 upgrade). You have also proposed RD-33MKV that is something like WS-13 but it is still only proposal so it will take time to be developed if it happen at all because RuAF cut expected MiG-35 orders, and Rostec private fighter is single engine design which probable is based around AL-51 so they dumped MiG LMFS which is two engine RD-33MKV design.



The J-31 is in development and is moving forward. As for the VK-10M it was under development last I heard. Yet, even if not versions of the RD-33/93 make in the region of 20,000 lbs+. Which, is adequate if all else fails.......
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Unread post15 Dec 2020, 05:08

Honestly, China has made some real serious progress in engine development over the last few years. With the WS-10 Series finally becoming a capable and fairly reliable power plant. So, while that is no guarantee that the WS-13 and/or WS-19 will be a success. It surely improves their odds....


While, the RD-33/RD-93 are at least adequate back ups. If, all else fails....


In short the J-31/FC-31 isn't going anywhere!
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milosh

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Unread post15 Dec 2020, 06:57

Corsair1963 wrote:The J-31 is in development and is moving forward. As for the VK-10M it was under development last I heard. Yet, even if not versions of the RD-33/93 make in the region of 20,000 lbs+. Which, is adequate if all else fails.......


I really doubt J-31 would use RD-93 with 100kN, I mean that would mean two engines with 1000h service life.

WS-13 very likely but it would take time to develop one. They have problems with WS-15 which is lot more important project and in development for two decades plus they have experience with similar sized engine (Al-31 clones).

So WS-15 is probable much closer to finish then WS-13, and then I really don't see point of J-31 for PLAAF. AVIC probable have stealth single engine design under wraps but they only wait adequate engine.

Btw even Russians dump two engine medium fighter, Rostec private project is single engine and very likely based around AL-51.
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Unread post15 Dec 2020, 10:38

milosh wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:The J-31 is in development and is moving forward. As for the VK-10M it was under development last I heard. Yet, even if not versions of the RD-33/93 make in the region of 20,000 lbs+. Which, is adequate if all else fails.......


I really doubt J-31 would use RD-93 with 100kN, I mean that would mean two engines with 1000h service life.

WS-13 very likely but it would take time to develop one. They have problems with WS-15 which is lot more important project and in development for two decades plus they have experience with similar sized engine (Al-31 clones).

So WS-15 is probable much closer to finish then WS-13, and then I really don't see point of J-31 for PLAAF. AVIC probable have stealth single engine design under wraps but they only wait adequate engine.

Btw even Russians dump two engine medium fighter, Rostec private project is single engine and very likely based around AL-51.


From all accounts development of the J-31 is progressing right along..........
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milosh

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Unread post15 Dec 2020, 16:49

Corsair1963 wrote:From all accounts development of the J-31 is progressing right along..........


For navy fighter yes, because they still are building super carrier.

But as possible PLAAF's fighter, J-31 development is joke. I mean J-20 is in units and production rate in 2020 is at least 40planes, in 2020s it would be even more, while J-31 have just couple prototypes (I think three) and no adequate engine, and there is less then two years between first flights.
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Unread post16 Dec 2020, 00:52

There is no way J-20 production rate in 2020 was already over 40. It would require a bump from 8 to 12 in 2016 to over 40 in 4 years. Let's say, they did something like 10 in 2016, 15 in 2017, 20 in 2018, 30 in 2019, there should have been 75 delivered by 2020 and probably 90 by now (since they typically do 2 deliveries a year). There simply aren't that many J-20s around. There are probably around 40 to at most 50 by early this year based on what I can see in the scramble orbit page https://www.scramble.nl/planning/orbats ... -air-force

I don't follow PLA as much as I did 4 years ago. But my guess is they are probably at around 24 (2 per months) this year (8 in 2016, 10 in 2017, 12 in 2018, 18 in 2019). Remember, they are still producing J-16s and J-10Cs. They don't have unlimited funding. Back 4 years ago, they were probably producing over 40 J-10s and 30 J-11s a year. Their procurement budget isn't going up that quickly. While it's possible they will ramp up production further, it's also possible they will continue to continue at around 24 until WS-15 is in production. That would get them to a floor of about 200 by end of 2025 and ceiling of probably 300 by then.

China does not have America's aerospace industry. It would take a lot of investment to be able to produce 48 a year (4 per month) by mid 2020s while also maintaining all those aircraft and their stealth properties. They don't have endless budget.

By then J-10 and flanker production should be winding down. CAC can crank up J-20 production with WS-15 and SAC will have just started mass producing FC-31 with WS-19.
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Unread post16 Dec 2020, 02:22

I was under the impression that China had endless deep pockets. Between the 3-5 stealth programs, the huge sea militia, The progression to a 500 ship navy, artificial land masses and a possible military conflict brewing on every direction of the compass
I was under the impression that the Chinese welcomed a
Good old fashioned arms race.
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Unread post16 Dec 2020, 02:25

milosh wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:From all accounts development of the J-31 is progressing right along..........


For navy fighter yes, because they still are building super carrier.

But as possible PLAAF's fighter, J-31 development is joke. I mean J-20 is in units and production rate in 2020 is at least 40planes, in 2020s it would be even more, while J-31 have just couple prototypes (I think three) and no adequate engine, and there is less then two years between first flights.


We will see but my guess is the J-31 will be built in substantial numbers for the PLAAF, PLAN, and possibly even Export.
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Unread post16 Dec 2020, 02:37

tphuang wrote:There is no way J-20 production rate in 2020 was already over 40. It would require a bump from 8 to 12 in 2016 to over 40 in 4 years. Let's say, they did something like 10 in 2016, 15 in 2017, 20 in 2018, 30 in 2019, there should have been 75 delivered by 2020 and probably 90 by now (since they typically do 2 deliveries a year). There simply aren't that many J-20s around. There are probably around 40 to at most 50 by early this year based on what I can see in the scramble orbit page https://www.scramble.nl/planning/orbats ... -air-force

I don't follow PLA as much as I did 4 years ago. But my guess is they are probably at around 24 (2 per months) this year (8 in 2016, 10 in 2017, 12 in 2018, 18 in 2019). Remember, they are still producing J-16s and J-10Cs. They don't have unlimited funding. Back 4 years ago, they were probably producing over 40 J-10s and 30 J-11s a year. Their procurement budget isn't going up that quickly. While it's possible they will ramp up production further, it's also possible they will continue to continue at around 24 until WS-15 is in production. That would get them to a floor of about 200 by end of 2025 and ceiling of probably 300 by then.

China does not have America's aerospace industry. It would take a lot of investment to be able to produce 48 a year (4 per month) by mid 2020s while also maintaining all those aircraft and their stealth properties. They don't have endless budget.

By then J-10 and flanker production should be winding down. CAC can crank up J-20 production with WS-15 and SAC will have just started mass producing FC-31 with WS-19.


I know a couple people fairly knowledge about the subject matter. So, will reach out and see what I can find out.... :|
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