J-20 goes operational again

Military aircraft - Post cold war aircraft, including for example B-2, Gripen, F-18E/F Super Hornet, Rafale, and Typhoon.
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jessmo112

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Unread post06 Oct 2020, 08:38

weasel1962 wrote:
mixelflick wrote:Given all of the design changes and ongoing issues, it sounds like their teething problems aren't done yet...


If one looks at PLAAF fighter production, its improvement by batches. Example, the original J-10A replaced its intakes with DSI in J-10B, followed by AESA & localized engine in J-10C. They don't do retrofit. They upgraded the AL-31FN to the series 3 and at the same time developed their local engine.

Same modus operandi will apply to J-20. Later batches will incorporate changes in design, construction, engine & avionics upgrades.


Sooo.. some of the batches take 20-30:years? Got it.
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mixelflick

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Unread post06 Oct 2020, 12:33

jessmo112 wrote:
weasel1962 wrote:
mixelflick wrote:Given all of the design changes and ongoing issues, it sounds like their teething problems aren't done yet...


If one looks at PLAAF fighter production, its improvement by batches. Example, the original J-10A replaced its intakes with DSI in J-10B, followed by AESA & localized engine in J-10C. They don't do retrofit. They upgraded the AL-31FN to the series 3 and at the same time developed their local engine.

Same modus operandi will apply to J-20. Later batches will incorporate changes in design, construction, engine & avionics upgrades.


Sooo.. some of the batches take 20-30:years? Got it.


Precisely where did I say "some of the batches take 20-30 years"?
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jessmo112

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Unread post07 Oct 2020, 02:31

The current engine is a cold war era design.
And the newer engine is blowing up on ghe stands.
Even when they get it to work it will be a copy of a cold war era design. You cant rant about incremental upgrades all you like but its not going to change the facts.
If they are doing improvements in batches then this batch is a 20 year batch. At this the The U.S. will be installing 6 or 7th generation engines, before the Chinese can get a indigenous engine to super-cruise.
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tphuang

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Unread post02 Dec 2020, 15:37

jessmo112 wrote:More J-20 info. Cost and development issues.


https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htair ... 01002.aspx

tight. China also revealed that development of the J20 has, cost $4.4 billion as of 2018 and that the construction cost for each aircraft is $110 million. In addition to the manufacturing difficulties, there were performance problems with the prototypes and six production models turned over to the Chinese Air Force by 2018.

Also did you guys know they are having these kinds of
Development issues?

China has had persistent problems developing high-performance jet engines. China has been developing the more powerful (and supercruise ready) WS-15 engine since the 1990s, for a larger aircraft like the J20. Despite a lot of effort, the WS-15 was still not able to work reliably enough for service (rather than a prototype) aircraft. Officials also confirmed rumors that a WS-15 exploded during a 2015 static (on the ground) test. That failure had been a secret but when an engine this big fails by blowing up the incident is difficult to hide. It also turned out that the WS-1


Never take any article from strategypage on China seriously. Same with alert5.

No one really knows how much J-20 cost. But based on how much J-10 cost a few years ago, I can't see J-20 breaking $100 million at the moment (just production cost not including development cost and such).

Their limiting factors in J-20 production rate (my guess is about 20 to 30 per year for the next few years) is simply a weakness in the domestic aerospace sector. They can't really go beyond that until they can produce their own engines for J-20 at a high rate. China can't rely on the Russians to develop better engines over time. Russians over-promise and under deliver on a regular basis. I'd be surprised if WS-15 doesn't end up in production J-20 before Izdeliye 30 in production su-57.

The latest photos show a good number of J-20s on WS-10C engine, which should have more thrust than the AL-31FN Series 3 engines they had been using. I had been expecting WS-15 in service before 2025 and still do so. They've made enough progress on aerospace engine recently (like WS-10C on J-20 and WS-20 on Y-20) to make me think they have not lagged their original timeline for WS-15 (the original goal was in production by 2020 I think) by too much.
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Unread post02 Dec 2020, 19:03

If we are talking about production rate there was twit about AVIC production in 2019 (fighters) and for J-20 number was 36. Also they slowly increase production per each year and max capacity would be ~48 J-20 per year. So they aren't far from max capacity if they don't plan to make more production lines which wouldn't be strange for Chinese.

On sinodefense forum they mentioned PLAAF lowest number of J-20 they want is ~400 but they will be glad to get more. Which is why PLAAF is cold about J-31.
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Unread post02 Dec 2020, 20:17

:shock: Slit !? :doh: :doh: :doh:
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J-20 slit.jpg
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Unread post03 Dec 2020, 02:54

It's a stealth slit. Very advanced.
Accel + Alt + VLO + DAS + MDF + Radial Distance = LIFE . . . Always choose Stealth
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Unread post03 Dec 2020, 06:14

milosh wrote:If we are talking about production rate there was twit about AVIC production in 2019 (fighters) and for J-20 number was 36. Also they slowly increase production per each year and max capacity would be ~48 J-20 per year. So they aren't far from max capacity if they don't plan to make more production lines which wouldn't be strange for Chinese.

On sinodefense forum they mentioned PLAAF lowest number of J-20 they want is ~400 but they will be glad to get more. Which is why PLAAF is cold about J-31.


:lmao:
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Unread post03 Dec 2020, 06:19

tphuang wrote:
Never take any article from strategypage on China seriously. Same with alert5.

No one really knows how much J-20 cost. But based on how much J-10 cost a few years ago, I can't see J-20 breaking $100 million at the moment (just production cost not including development cost and such).

Their limiting factors in J-20 production rate (my guess is about 20 to 30 per year for the next few years) is simply a weakness in the domestic aerospace sector. They can't really go beyond that until they can produce their own engines for J-20 at a high rate. China can't rely on the Russians to develop better engines over time. Russians over-promise and under deliver on a regular basis. I'd be surprised if WS-15 doesn't end up in production J-20 before Izdeliye 30 in production su-57.

The latest photos show a good number of J-20s on WS-10C engine, which should have more thrust than the AL-31FN Series 3 engines they had been using. I had been expecting WS-15 in service before 2025 and still do so. They've made enough progress on aerospace engine recently (like WS-10C on J-20 and WS-20 on Y-20) to make me think they have not lagged their original timeline for WS-15 (the original goal was in production by 2020 I think) by too much.


Honestly, I would be surprised to see the WS-15 ready. Much before the end of the decade. Yet, the WS-10C seems adequate until then...

As for J-20 production rates. This is one more reason that China really needs the J-31 as the workhorse for both the PLAAF and PLAN.
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Unread post03 Dec 2020, 16:22

J-31 isn't Chinese equivalent of F-35. Just because it look like F-35 it isn't same especailly if we look economy of scale.

F-35 economical advantages over F-22:

1. much higher number of orders, over 2000 vs 400 (later F-22 was cut to 200) so F-35 would be 20times more build then optimistic F-22 estimate! We are talking about 1990s when decision was made.

2. one engine instead two, cost saving isn't just because it is one instead of two, but also lot more F135 will be build.

3. Smaller airframe

In case of J-31 you have only no3. Everything else no advantage at all, in fact engines will probable cost lot more then J-20 engines.

So I still don't see why PLAAF will want J-31 and sinodefense info is quite logical. If someone in China develop single WS-15 or maybe AL-51 stealth that is something totally different and PLAAF would surely want that. That would be PLAAF F-35 equvalent.

PLAAN is another story. F-35 is lot more sutied for carrier then J-20 ,even with RD-33MK engines which are build for carrier operations in first place. And PLAAN will surely want J-31 on deck they aren't blindsided as USN.

Nice text about J-20 production:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/militar ... ter-thrust
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Unread post04 Dec 2020, 08:44

If current internet chatter is to be believed, the J-31 has also been rejected for PLAN CV operations. Apparently the take off distance is too long, which is in sharp contrast to the Mig-29K (which also uses twin RD-33s). Likely signals weight issues. Considering also 3 Mig-29Ks have crashed this year, in part due to engine failures....
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jessmo112

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Unread post04 Dec 2020, 15:25

weasel1962 wrote:If current internet chatter is to be believed, the J-31 has also been rejected for PLAN CV operations. Apparently the take off distance is too long, which is in sharp contrast to the Mig-29K (which also uses twin RD-33s). Likely signals weight issues. Considering also 3 Mig-29Ks have crashed this year, in part due to engine failures....


Like we mentioned before in the thread the J-31 will never be able to trap on a ship in this configuration.

1. Not enough wing. Look at the F-35A versus the C.

2. Very poor TW

3. Very likely issues with robust VLO treatments in a naval environment.

4. And all this is before you add hooks landing gear and folding wings.

The idea that the Chinese can just waive a magic wand because they are Chinese and make this a naval unicorn is sickening.
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milosh

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Unread post04 Dec 2020, 16:10

weasel1962 wrote:If current internet chatter is to be believed, the J-31 has also been rejected for PLAN CV operations. Apparently the take off distance is too long, which is in sharp contrast to the Mig-29K (which also uses twin RD-33s). Likely signals weight issues. Considering also 3 Mig-29Ks have crashed this year, in part due to engine failures....


It is quite fishy info, becuase J-31 isn't even ready (noticable less thrust then with WS-13/19 engine) yet and isn't planed to be used from non catapult carriers like MiG-29K.

So J-31 will be needed only when China deploy super carrier which is still in shipyard, and then they need to test and train so it would be quite a while.

So we are talking about second half of 2020 when J-31 would be needed. New engine and other problems can be solved until then.

But that wouldn't mean it will be noticeable cheaper then J-20 in fact it could cost same as J-20, I already explain why.
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Unread post05 Dec 2020, 02:42

jessmo112 wrote:
weasel1962 wrote:If current internet chatter is to be believed, the J-31 has also been rejected for PLAN CV operations. Apparently the take off distance is too long, which is in sharp contrast to the Mig-29K (which also uses twin RD-33s). Likely signals weight issues. Considering also 3 Mig-29Ks have crashed this year, in part due to engine failures....


Like we mentioned before in the thread the J-31 will never be able to trap on a ship in this configuration.

1. Not enough wing. Look at the F-35A versus the C.

2. Very poor TW

3. Very likely issues with robust VLO treatments in a naval environment.

4. And all this is before you add hooks landing gear and folding wings.

The idea that the Chinese can just waive a magic wand because they are Chinese and make this a naval unicorn is sickening.


Much the same applies to J20. They need a 5th gen single to be in the game. But will have nothing like the T:W and reliability combination required plus a payload and fuel load to compete with F-35s. Nor an MQ-25A, which they will sorely need, in large numbers.

Maybe they'll have that by 2050 when USN and Allies are fielding optically invisible 6th gens with 1,600 nm HyperX-ER attack missiles and a 500 km range 2.8 megawatt laser in the right bay, powered by a thermo-electric micro-fission reactor in the left bay. Plus a 380 kilowatt multi-aperture DIRCM and a 110,00 lb thrust engine with the MQ-32B tanker.
Accel + Alt + VLO + DAS + MDF + Radial Distance = LIFE . . . Always choose Stealth
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Unread post05 Dec 2020, 05:11

CV18 won't be that far off. 2020 DoD report estimates service entry by 2023.

There isn't any evidence of catapult tests other than on J-15Ts so far. Since the modules for CV18 are already built, it is unlikely that CV18 will be designed around any other aircraft other than J-15Ts, KJ600s and Z18s as its aircraft complement. I think there is now a low likelihood of a J-31T. It will take a number of years for new design, currently designed as J-35.
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