J-20 goes operational again

Military aircraft - Post cold war aircraft, including for example B-2, Gripen, F-18E/F Super Hornet, Rafale, and Typhoon.
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weasel1962

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Unread post07 Nov 2021, 06:24

I'd start by agreeing with wrightwing's statement. I would add that no one on this planet will have access to both engine data to make a measurable analysis without the need for assumptions to validate wrightwing's statement.

I have assumed the following:
(a) a 15% higher publicized thrust would be a material difference.
(b) The PLAAF will operate J-20s in an environment where it is best suited.
(c) That the WS-15 development is intended to counter the F-22's thrust advantage (otherwise they would have stuck to AL-31s).

I doubt even a USAF analyst would argue that a J-20 powered by WS-15s would not have propulsion advantages but that is also an assumption. The solution imho is NGAD.
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jessmo112

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Unread post07 Nov 2021, 16:00

So are you saying that the J-20 went from 0 super cruise, to super cruise at about Mach 1 in a shallow dive to Mach 1.or Mach 2 supercruise? In a little over 2 years?
Color me skeptical.
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milosh

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Unread post07 Nov 2021, 20:09

jessmo112 wrote:So are you saying that the J-20 went from 0 super cruise, to super cruise at about Mach 1 in a shallow dive to Mach 1.or Mach 2 supercruise? In a little over 2 years?
Color me skeptical.


No what he want to say is J-20 with new engine will be more agile and fast then it is right now so F-22 wouldn't have advantage it have now.
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ricnunes

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Unread post07 Nov 2021, 20:52

milosh wrote:
jessmo112 wrote:So are you saying that the J-20 went from 0 super cruise, to super cruise at about Mach 1 in a shallow dive to Mach 1.or Mach 2 supercruise? In a little over 2 years?
Color me skeptical.


No what he want to say is J-20 with new engine will be more agile and fast then it is right now so F-22 wouldn't have advantage it have now.


And what jessmo112 wants to say is that it's very suspicious and doubtful that an aircraft that doesn't even have supercruise capability suddenly with a simple engine swap can supercuise at very high speeds and match the F-22 performance.
With all due respect that's IMO, BS!

So and with all that logic when the F-35 gets that ADVENT engine it will what?? Supercruise at Mach 3?? :roll:
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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disconnectedradical

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Unread post08 Nov 2021, 00:01

I think you're putting words in people's mouths. J-20 with the AL-31FM2 engines right now probably can't supercruise, but with WS-15 engines that's designed for it, maybe can do Mach 1.4-1.5.

WS-15 probably won't be leapfrogging F119, but I think the Chinese can match the raw performance numbers while not really matching durability and engine life.
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weasel1962

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Unread post08 Nov 2021, 03:09

J-20 don't have external stores that create significant drag (excepting when the PL-10s are out). That's the equivalent of clean configuration flight for legacies with 80k lb thrust.

I agree supercruise is not a given for J-20. However air combat 101, pilot turns on the ABs to max energy before going into the fight. That's 80+k lb thrust. The F-22 may have an advantage with a higher start speed but that's going to erode very quickly with a 10k lb, 15% downside. Even if J-20s are heavier, ABs are fuel guzzlers that will reduce weights fast.

The difference really be pilot skill where US holds the edge. But the chinese have a jump start with AI and the missile competition heating up. Its not a clear advantage for the F-22s. I think its a bigger challenge for F-35s. Its not a capability edge that the USAF is used to. NGAD imho may restore that edge.
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Unread post08 Nov 2021, 12:46

How do they know when to AB? And when they do use AB, how do they avoid everything else?
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ricnunes

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Unread post08 Nov 2021, 13:46

disconnectedradical wrote:I think you're putting words in people's mouths. J-20 with the AL-31FM2 engines right now probably can't supercruise, but with WS-15 engines that's designed for it, maybe can do Mach 1.4-1.5.


I may be putting words in another people (this case jessmo112) mouth but that was my interpretation of what he said. If I'm mistaken then I have no problem apologizing to jessmo112.

However my previous point still stands. I'm extremely skeptical and as such I doubt that an aircraft which currently cannot supercruise will suddenly be able to supercruise at speeds of Mach 1.4-1.5 (like you said) just with a simple engine swap.
Again if this was to be the case than a future F-35 with ADVENT engine would also be able to supercuise at such similar speeds which is something which we all know isn't guaranteed to happen and probably won't happen.
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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ricnunes

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Unread post08 Nov 2021, 14:12

weasel1962 wrote:J-20 don't have external stores that create significant drag (excepting when the PL-10s are out). That's the equivalent of clean configuration flight for legacies with 80k lb thrust.


And guess what, neither the F-35 (usually) carries external stores!
However and again nobody is saying that a F-35 with ADVENT engine will supercruise at similar speeds compared to the F-22.

weasel1962 wrote:I agree supercruise is not a given for J-20.


Here, I fully agree with you.

weasel1962 wrote:However air combat 101, pilot turns on the ABs to max energy before going into the fight. That's 80+k lb thrust. The F-22 may have an advantage with a higher start speed but that's going to erode very quickly with a 10k lb, 15% downside. Even if J-20s are heavier, ABs are fuel guzzlers that will reduce weights fast.


What?? :?

weasel1962 wrote:But the chinese have a jump start with AI and the missile competition heating up. Its not a clear advantage for the F-22s.


Again what??
Or more precisely what jump start does the Chinese have in terms of AI (compared to the Americans of course)??
Last time I checked the F-35 has an unprecedented level of sensor fusion which is unmatched by any other fighter aircraft. And next in terms of sensor fusion comes the F-22. And that (sensor fusion) my friend is 'AI at work'.
The J-20 is yet to prove that it has a similar level of sensor fusion compared to the F-22 let alone compared to the F-35. So it's clear that that who has the jump start in terms of AI is the Americans not the Chinese.

Even you seem to admit that the J-20 can't lock after launch (LOAL) those PL-10 missile (inside the side bays) or resuming, those PL-10 missile need to be extended outside those side bays in order to achieve a lock before launch (LOBL). If the Chinese were so advanced in terms of AI (and better than the Americans) they should't have much of a hard time to implement a LOAL mode on their PL-10 missiles, would they?


weasel1962 wrote:I think its a bigger challenge for F-35s. Its not a capability edge that the USAF is used to. NGAD imho may restore that edge.


The J-20 will be a bigger challenge for the F-35 compared to any 4th or 4.5th gen fighter aircraft like the Su-35 for example, that's for sure. But saying that the F-35 superiority is lost due to the J-20 is IMO an absurd! Everything (including what I said above) indicates that the F-35 (as well as the F-22) is superior to the J-20.

NGAD isn't here and being developed in order to restore any perceived loss of air superiority by the F-35 and F-22 but instead it's being developed because there's a need of a fighter aircraft class of aircraft that can have a much longer range than any current fighter aircraft including the F-35, a capability which is very needed for the Pacific theater (where the biggest threat is China).
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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tphuang

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Unread post08 Nov 2021, 17:42

wrightwing wrote:
weasel1962 wrote:WS-15 enables J-20X to leapfrog the F-22 in propulsion. NGAD needs to speed up.

Not hardly. The WS-15 needs to demonstrate quite a few things, to "leapfrog" the F-119. Not only does it need to demonstrate superior dry/wet thrust, but it needs to demonstrate superior thrust under different conditions/altitudes, SFC, power to weight ratio, TBO, etc....


Not really. WS-15 will probably never in its lifetime have as good SFC or TBO as F-119. A J-20 pilot flying around for the most part is not going to care if WS-15's fuel burn is a little worse or service life/reliability is worse as long as it can provide the same or better thrust than F-119.

ricnunes wrote:Again what??
Or more precisely what jump start does the Chinese have in terms of AI (compared to the Americans of course)??
Last time I checked the F-35 has an unprecedented level of sensor fusion which is unmatched by any other fighter aircraft. And next in terms of sensor fusion comes the F-22. And that (sensor fusion) my friend is 'AI at work'.
The J-20 is yet to prove that it has a similar level of sensor fusion compared to the F-22 let alone compared to the F-35. So it's clear that that who has the jump start in terms of AI is the Americans not the Chinese.

Can't speak for military aviation side of things. But Chinese AI development in recent years have been pretty stunning. It's actually pretty scary in Chinese society how much AI has progressed in everyday living. As in, it's scary for people that live there. Take a look at what Kai-fu lee has to say about AI in China. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQ48rP_Rs4g

Underestimating how quick China can progress in sensor fusion is a huge mistake. Think about what kind of chips, computer hardware and software design principles were available 25 years ago and what's available now. Light years difference. I'm not sure why the comparison is between F-22 and J-20. In long term scheme of things, F-22 is not a threat to J-20. It was produced in too small numbers. It's really costly to maintain. It's service availability will be worse than F-35. It's not compatible for the same type of software/AI upgrade that you can get on F-35.
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ricnunes

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Unread post08 Nov 2021, 21:16

tphuang wrote:Can't speak for military aviation side of things. But Chinese AI development in recent years have been pretty stunning. It's actually pretty scary in Chinese society how much AI has progressed in everyday living. As in, it's scary for people that live there. Take a look at what Kai-fu lee has to say about AI in China. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQ48rP_Rs4g


Those Chinese AI advancements are in fact nothing that hasn't been developed and used in the USA (such as and for example in some Las Vegas casinos). The diference is that the Chinese employed some of these AI solutions/technologies such as face recognition (using street cams) in mass.
So basically what the Chinese are doing in terms of AI technology is employing existing AI technologies massively and not necessarily developing new groundbreaking AI technology that previously didn't exist.

And while Chinese efforts are really and extremely impressive they are not or do not grant a leap ahead in this technology (AI) compared to the USA.


tphuang wrote:Underestimating how quick China can progress in sensor fusion is a huge mistake.


Nobody here is Underestimating China's capability to develop sensor fusion technology. However I believe that some here are Overestimating both the current China's sensor fusion technology and how quickly China's can or could develop such technologies that can match the ones used by the US military (such and namely as the F-35's sensor fusion).

tphuang wrote:Think about what kind of chips, computer hardware and software design principles were available 25 years ago and what's available now. Light years difference.


Well, it's a fact that China is gaining terrain and catching up the west (including the USA) on computer hardware and software technologies but the fact is that such technology is more evenly distributed between all the most developed countries in the world compared to 25 years ago.
Resuming, it's not only China who gained terrain on the USA in terms of computer hardware and software technologies in the last 25 years or so. Basically all developed countries and some in-development countries also caught up (some more, some less) in this regard. But yes, China's effort on this is more noticible, I grant you that.


tphuang wrote:I'm not sure why the comparison is between F-22 and J-20. In long term scheme of things, F-22 is not a threat to J-20. It was produced in too small numbers. It's really costly to maintain. It's service availability will be worse than F-35. It's not compatible for the same type of software/AI upgrade that you can get on F-35.


Speaking about 'underestimating', I believe that you are greatly doing it regarding the F-22. So far there's still more F-22s in existence than J-20s.
There's nothing that prevents the F-22 from getting most or even all the F-35's technology. It's all a matter of money! For instance I remember to have read that the F-22 will or would get the same stealth coating of the F-35. Also, the F-22 was planned to be equipped with MADL data-link, however the lack of funds prevent this from happening.
Moreover, if the F-22 will become 'inferior' compared to a future J-20 variant this won't be because of the F-22 itself and its 'upgradable' capabilities but instead because the Americans decided to look foward and develop something else to eventually replace the F-22 - that something is called NGAD.
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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jessmo112

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Unread post08 Nov 2021, 21:49

tphuang wrote:
wrightwing wrote:
weasel1962 wrote:WS-15 enables J-20X to leapfrog the F-22 in propulsion. NGAD needs to speed up.

Not hardly. The WS-15 needs to demonstrate quite a few things, to "leapfrog" the F-119. Not only does it need to demonstrate superior dry/wet thrust, but it needs to demonstrate superior thrust under different conditions/altitudes, SFC, power to weight ratio, TBO, etc....


Not really. WS-15 will probably never in its lifetime have as good SFC or TBO as F-119. A J-20 pilot flying around for the most part is not going to care if WS-15's fuel burn is a little worse or service life/reliability is worse as long as it can provide the same or better thrust than F-119.

ricnunes wrote:Again what??
Or more precisely what jump start does the Chinese have in terms of AI (compared to the Americans of course)??
Last time I checked the F-35 has an unprecedented level of sensor fusion which is unmatched by any other fighter aircraft. And next in terms of sensor fusion comes the F-22. And that (sensor fusion) my friend is 'AI at work'.
The J-20 is yet to prove that it has a similar level of sensor fusion compared to the F-22 let alone compared to the F-35. So it's clear that that who has the jump start in terms of AI is the Americans not the Chinese.

Can't speak for military aviation side of things. But Chinese AI development in recent years have been pretty stunning. It's actually pretty scary in Chinese society how much AI has progressed in everyday living. As in, it's scary for people that live there. Take a look at what Kai-fu lee has to say about AI in China. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQ48rP_Rs4g

Underestimating how quick China can progress in sensor fusion is a huge mistake. Think about what kind of chips, computer hardware and software design principles were available 25 years ago and what's available now. Light years difference. I'm not sure why the comparison is between F-22 and J-20. In long term scheme of things, F-22 is not a threat to J-20. It was produced in too small numbers. It's really costly to maintain. It's service availability will be worse than F-35. It's not compatible for the same type of software/AI upgrade that you can get on F-35.


And where are these Chinese Chip innovations? Yes the Chinese assemble and work in the Chio industry, but no one is clamoring fora Chinese designed chip.

In fact the Chinese are dependent on western equipment for Chip manufacturing . How do you advance in tech and AI when your chips are several generations behind?
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Unread post08 Nov 2021, 22:34

jessmo112 wrote:And where are these Chinese Chip innovations? Yes the Chinese assemble and work in the Chio industry, but no one is clamoring fora Chinese designed chip.

In fact the Chinese are dependent on western equipment for Chip manufacturing . How do you advance in tech and AI when your chips are several generations behind?


China is one of rare countries in world which is able to build domestic supercomputers, they aren't dependent on imports for that. And those computers are among fastest in world.

Also they will start serial production of domestic EUV machine for 14nm in 2022, Japan for example give up on EUV years ago. So in 2022 only Holland and China will be countries which are making EUV machines. Holland still have big lead but speed at which China is closing the gap is furious.
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Unread post08 Nov 2021, 23:26

ricnunes wrote:
disconnectedradical wrote:I think you're putting words in people's mouths. J-20 with the AL-31FM2 engines right now probably can't supercruise, but with WS-15 engines that's designed for it, maybe can do Mach 1.4-1.5.


I may be putting words in another people (this case jessmo112) mouth but that was my interpretation of what he said. If I'm mistaken then I have no problem apologizing to jessmo112.

However my previous point still stands. I'm extremely skeptical and as such I doubt that an aircraft which currently cannot supercruise will suddenly be able to supercruise at speeds of Mach 1.4-1.5 (like you said) just with a simple engine swap.
Again if this was to be the case than a future F-35 with ADVENT engine would also be able to supercuise at such similar speeds which is something which we all know isn't guaranteed to happen and probably won't happen.


Because you’re looking at static thrust to gauge supercruise capability, a common mistake. Static thrust of 35,000 lbs the F119 is only a little bit more powerful than F110-GE-132 with 32,500 lbs, but I guarantee if you put that engine in the F-22 instead of the F119 then it may not be able to supercruise at all because dynamic dry thrust profiles are so different. Just like how F135 even though is more powerful than F119, probably has worse supersonic dry thrust because of the bypass ratio and optimization.

So yes an engine swap can be the difference between supercruise or not, because of how they’re optimized. Unlike the AL-31F or WS-10, the WS-15 is designed specifically to supercruise and probably makes sacrifices in other areas to make it happen, like TSFC, but that’s the nature of fixed cycle engines. The F119 is a thirstier engine than F110 subsonic because it’s optimized for supercruise.

ADVENT is supposed to be mainly about range, the extra thrust is nice but it wasn’t the main goal.
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Unread post09 Nov 2021, 04:22

weasel1962 wrote:I'd start by agreeing with wrightwing's statement. I would add that no one on this planet will have access to both engine data to make a measurable analysis without the need for assumptions to validate wrightwing's statement.

I have assumed the following:
(a) a 15% higher publicized thrust would be a material difference.
(b) The PLAAF will operate J-20s in an environment where it is best suited.
(c) That the WS-15 development is intended to counter the F-22's thrust advantage (otherwise they would have stuck to AL-31s).

I doubt even a USAF analyst would argue that a J-20 powered by WS-15s would not have propulsion advantages but that is also an assumption. The solution imho is NGAD.


The WS-15 hasn't demonstrated any thrust rating yet, much less a 15% thrust advantage over the F-119. The actual F-119 numbers are likely above the "officially published" numbers. The F-22 isn't going to be kinematically inferior to the J-20. It's issue is range in the Pacific theater.
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