Russian Aircraft Carrier Accident

The Kuznetsov is like the Su-57, a WIP .

Let's be honest Russian has been a green water navy long before this happened. Say even if the lone carrier is not in a maintenance cycle(I think for USN the number of deployed carrier at any given time is no more than 3) how much power projection capability does a ski jump carrier provide? Their real naval modernization efforts is on their submarine fleet or the more modest FFGs. Consider the resource, geography and the real, likely contingency it makes more sense than vanity project like large combatant or carrier.

PLAN is the one that has the desire, mean, and in certain sense practical need to build up a carrier fleet. Ski-jump Kuznetsov was never their end goal, the move towards a proper CATOBAR is well underway. With the Type 055 very much a Ticonderoga analogy with more modern features they're also quite ready to put together their own CSG. It's all quite frankly modeled after USN. And the purpose, at least in the foreseeable future is not to duel with USN in the middle of pacific. The need to keep SEA countries in line or protecting the growing interests in Africa could be enough reasons.

The African population is feeing to Europe in masses.

A few years from now, Africa is: "want it? have it". => But you"ll have to bring your own miners to get the goods out of the ground.

Not surprised if Russian propaganda suggest that CV testing ability to withstand a 70 ton impact bomb...imho, China may be willing to buy the Kuznetzov but don't think Russia will sell. Its a pride thing. Russia needs to be able to say its one of the "big" boys and that means having a CV, even if its one with a 216 sq ft hole in the middle.

China's CVBG doctrine is not explained (as least publicly) yet. I personally think its still evolving. It could just as easily adopt the original Russian CV doctrine which is to defend/escort its naval fleets (including SSBNs). That applies in a Taiwan invasion scenario. That is consistent with the deployments of the Liaoning to date. However its not full Russian doctrine either because of the lack of ASW helos which is still the PLAN weak link, including the "effectiveness" of the Shang SSNs. Its really early "infancy" days for PLAN CV operations. Long way to go before they actually intend to, much less being ready to, go up against US CVBGs.

J-15 is, on the other hand, under-estimated. The weight class is roughly F-14. More importantly, it has the latest Chinese radar avionics and missiles, plus enough Chinese yuan to buy self built spares to keep the aircraft flying. It has a better chance of surviving against legacies especially the M-2000s or IDF-CK. The F-16 can still handle flankers but I would expect attrition.

China is by and large past making knockoff Russian equipment. Or rather if given the chance they'd rather copy western stuff, for example S-70, even if it took them a few decades. For how much has China gotten better at building surface ship I think Russian has little to offer in this respect. In fact if Russian's really keen on maintaining an operational carrier the reverse might become true. But that would also go on to highlight how Russia had become the junior partner in this "strategic cooperation".

Chinese surface force venturing outside the reach of its mainland bastion are just juicy targets for USN, it will remain this way for the foreseeable future no questions about it. Doesn't mean it can't leverage a more limited power projection capability than US against lesser opponents. Say coerce a state with little naval capability in SEA into submission, or deal with some insurgency against a friendly regime in Africa. Its probably a tool to better strengthen its own influence than to clash with US.

I don't believe potential Taiwan contingency did that much to drove the development of carrier, the geography is there. It's well within the range of land based tactical aviation or even the shortest range missile force. Hell flights launched from Taiwan itself could theoretically fall within the reach of long range SAM based in the mainland China if flown at high enough altitude. It may still find uses for blockade or deterring intervention, but certainly not by itself a necessity for an invasion scenario.

And the purpose, at least in the foreseeable future is not to duel with USN in the middle of pacific. The need to keep SEA countries in line or protecting the growing interests in Africa could be enough reasons.

SEA would be a nasty place for hostile PLAN DDGs to venture, many SEA states have a range of sea-denial capabilities, and such a threat would lead to a more unified SEA defense arrangement over time, which would be a fairly menacing environment for the PLAN to contemplate messing with. We'll see who keeps who in line there.

Just put the Kuznetsov out of its misery already...

Just put the Kuznetsov out of its misery already...

Agreed. If Russia wants to have real aircraft carriers, they'd need something like French CdG which is actually modern and useful. Of course they'd also need aircraft that'd be modern and useful too. Su-33 and MiG-29K aren't really that in any sense.

I think it'd be better for Russian navy to forget about aircraft carriers altogether.

Better they keep pouring funds into her rather than into.other assets eg. nuke subs, new surface fleet assets.

I think Kuznetsov, Kirov and Slavas must have pretty good money burning rate...

S-70 is license built in China. Thanks, Bill Clinton and George Bush for facilitating the Chinese build up.

S-70 is license built in China. Thanks, Bill Clinton and George Bush for facilitating the Chinese build up.

They've also introduced their own knock-off, the Z-20:

This is just the Russians innovating and creating the world's first smoke-powered submarine...

Ach, those Ruskies are so friendly.
Sinking their own ships, wo that we don't have to.

And by the time their sole carrier is ready again? ? Does smoking rust float?
Because that's all it is. It is rust, and it smokes like hell.

Hey? The Brits might even put it on sale in one of their antique or flea market TV shows.