mixelflick wrote:
So they surprised us once (J-20 flying so soon). Who's to say they can't have a rudimentary IOC in 2021? In fact, I think it's rather likely. A lot of them? No. Tons of trained pilots and an operational footprint far away from her shores? No. But 4 years is a long time. It's likely they're a lot further along than the Russians, who plan to have 12 birds between now and then.
All I'm saying is this: Our intelligence always seems to be a little to rosy when it comes to China's weapons systems. If memory serves, we didn't think they'd fly a 5th gen bird prior to 2020. They did it when, 5- 10 years earlier and not 1, but 2???
The Chinese didn't catch our intelligence agencies by surprise. The assessments are still correct (i.e. IOC between 2025 and 2030.)
What won't be IOC by 2021 are operational squadrons, that have actual combat capabilities, unless they plan on using even more concurrent development, than the F-35 (i.e. declare IOC without final production engines, avionics, sensors, weapon integration, logistical support, etc....) All of those things aren't happening in the next 4 years.