Su-57 Felon

Military aircraft - Post cold war aircraft, including for example B-2, Gripen, F-18E/F Super Hornet, Rafale, and Typhoon.
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icemaverick

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Unread post21 May 2022, 19:36

The ruble is only high because Russia is taking all sorts of measures to artificially prop up its value (making companies pay in rubles for gas, 17% interest rate on ruble accounts, forcing Russian companies to convert foreign currency to rubles etc.). They can only play these tricks for a limited amount of time and this war will do huge damage to Russia’s economy over the next few years.

They will have a very hard time coming up with adequate funding to field the Su-57 and Su-75 in anything resembling decent numbers. Russia’s reputation as a quality arms maker has also taken a huge hit in this war. Other countries will think twice before buying Russian weapons, which have performed very disappointingly in Ukraine. Iran, North Korea, Algeria etc. will only be able to buy limited batches of their equipment. Any potential customers that have access to Western arms will spend more money on those.
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milosh

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Unread post21 May 2022, 20:53

ricnunes wrote: It means that major cuts/earnings in revenues will continue! Or more precisely much less funds will be available to Russia compared to up to 3 months ago!

Here, read this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/03/busi ... raine.html



Up to 3 months ago? Well why not look years before? Gas price is lot higher now then it was in 2010s, and Russia had long term deals with Europe so price was something like 250dollars, now world natural gas price is ~1000 dollars. So Russia can cut price to 1/4 of today price and match price whicch it had in 2010s.

That is why I am talking it is nonsense saying Asia can't replace Europe it can. Because of high gas prices now and in future and low gas price for Europe in 2010s.

milosh wrote:LOL :roll:

And you know why the F-35 is cheaper than the F-15EX and cheaper than most other modern/current new build fighter aircraft (like the Super Hornet, Rafale, Typhoon just to name a few)??
This is because more than three thousand (3000+) F-35's will be manufactured and so far nearly 800 have been built! This obviously mean smaller price/cost per unit. Good luck for the Russians to be able to build one hundred (100) or so Su-75 aircraft let alone thousands! (or even large hundreds!)


Lot of F-15E were build too so...

I still didn't hear any reason why Su-75 would be super expensive.

I mean you folks present it as Su-57 in price.

It have SAME engine as Su-35 but only one, both have composite skin with RAM, Su-75 have lot cheaper internal airframe. RD cost for electronics was already paid as part of Su-57 program.

So now they need to do test flights and that is more less RD cost.
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ricnunes

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Unread post22 May 2022, 13:12

milosh wrote:Up to 3 months ago? Well why not look years before? Gas price is lot higher now then it was in 2010s, and Russia had long term deals with Europe so price was something like 250dollars, now world natural gas price is ~1000 dollars. So Russia can cut price to 1/4 of today price and match price whicch it had in 2010s.

That is why I am talking it is nonsense saying Asia can't replace Europe it can. Because of high gas prices now and in future and low gas price for Europe in 2010s.


Did you read anything I posted in my last post or are you just playing dumb?? :doh:

Let's hope you understand this time (fingers crossed):
In order for Russia to be able to fully replace the European market (which is BY FAR ITS BEST AND LARGEST CUSTOMER) the Russians need to greatly undercut the other and current suppliers of oil and gas to the Asian market and it doesn't matter if currently the price of oil and gas is high! So, what does this mean?
- It means that the profit that the Russians will make by selling their oil or gas to the Asian market (IF THEY CAN ACTUALLY PULL THIS OFF!) will be MUCH SMALLER compared to the same profits that Russia received by selling the same oil and gas to Europe, period!
And then what happens when the oil and gas prices come down?? Note that this is not an IF but instead is a WHEN. Will Russia sell their oil or gas to that Asian market for basically or almost free? Of course not! So this will be like a "snowball effect" on Russia's revenue.



milosh wrote:Lot of F-15E were build too so...

I still didn't hear any reason why Su-75 would be super expensive.

I mean you folks present it as Su-57 in price.

It have SAME engine as Su-35 but only one, both have composite skin with RAM, Su-75 have lot cheaper internal airframe. RD cost for electronics was already paid as part of Su-57 program.

So now they need to do test flights and that is more less RD cost.


Five hundred and Twenty Three (523) F-15E's were built. That's already less than the number of currently built F-35's which is more than Seven Hundred and Ninety (790+) and note that the F-35 still hasn't reach "full production" and more than three thousand (3000+) will be built!
On top of this the F-15E was fully based on an already existing aircraft, the F-15D (twin seat version of the F-15C).

So let see, the Su-75 compared to the F-15E:
- Will probably be build in a number quite or even much smaller than 523 (number of F-15E built)
- It's a completely new aircraft/airframe which will require extensive R&D or resuming needs to be built from the ground up (as opposed to the F-15E).

So what can possibly go wrong with the Su-75 and with it's price/cost? :roll:
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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milosh

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Unread post22 May 2022, 17:24

O man we wrote same things but for some reason we don't understand each other. So to be clear, Putin is gamble a lot, he is playing on high natural gas price and on Australia stay in AUKUS deal.

Big gamble I agree.

In case of Su-75, I still dont get why you think Russia can't afford it???

I mean they are getting Su-57 which cost lot more and still isn't really stealthy until new engine arrives.

Su-75 on other hand cost lot less. So Russia for sure can afford single engine AL41 8G stealthy fighter. Btw most of RD is already done for Su-75.

If they left some brain they will go with Su-75 and dump Su-57!
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ricnunes

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Unread post22 May 2022, 18:26

milosh wrote:O man we wrote same things but for some reason we don't understand each other. So to be clear, Putin is gamble a lot, he is playing on high natural gas price and on Australia stay in AUKUS deal.

Big gamble I agree.


Yeah, perhaps something got lost during the conversation.


milosh wrote:In case of Su-75, I still dont get why you think Russia can't afford it???


Even if for "some miracle" Russia could "get them" (Su-75) then they wouldn't be able to get enough of them in order to make them affordable (cost per unit and sustainability) and on top of this in order to make it a little bit less expensive then planned, equipment/features/electronics/etc... would be dropped or inferior equipment would be placed instead which will make it an inferior aircraft than planned.
Add a less and smaller/dimmer prospect of finding export customers and you'll have the "perfect storm". Or resuming, the Death Spiral that many accused/foresaw that the F-35 would suffer may (IMO) actually happen to the Su-75!


milosh wrote:I mean they are getting Su-57 which cost lot more and still isn't really stealthy until new engine arrives.

Su-75 on other hand cost lot less. So Russia for sure can afford single engine AL41 8G stealthy fighter. Btw most of RD is already done for Su-75.

If they left some brain they will go with Su-75 and dump Su-57!


Look, I agree with you that Russia should have gone the route (developed) something in the lines of the Su-75 INSTEAD of the Su-57. I've said this several times in the past. But they (Russians) decided to stick with the Su-57 and even before the war they didn't have much of a possibility of going both ways (Su-57 and Su-75) and now for sure then can't follow both.
Basically "the ship" where Russia should have dropped the Su-57 and go for the Su-75 instead has already "sailed" and unfortunately it's not possible to go back in time.

And NO, the R&D on the Su-75 is NOT already done, not even by a long shot! There's still a LONG and PAINFUL process of developing the actual aircraft - since all you have is a wooden mock-up which doesn't fly! - starting from building an actual (flyable) prototype and test, test and re-test it, apply what was learned during the prototype testing to build the actual production aircraft (which is always different from the prototype - look at the X-35 and F-35 as an example) and start testing process all over again, now with the "production aircraft" and with all of its planned weapons systems, sensors, etc! Oh, and apply all of this to the aircraft's production and supply lines as well! Oh, and I'm sure I'm forgetting most of the needed stuff here!
If you have any doubts about what I'm saying just pick up one modern fighter aircraft and look at its R&D phase!

Basically, Su-57 R&D seems to be mostly done so Russia is already in a crossroads where it simply can't go back.
This is life and situations like this happens to us all. So the only possible path for Russia right now is to finalize the Su-57 and try to manufacture the thing. And even this while being much "simpler" for Russia could already and probably be outside Russia's current and future's possibilities!

Bottom line:
- It's already too late for Russia to cancel the Su-57 and go back and develop a completely new aircraft, the Su-75! Even if the later is a "better idea/concept" than the former.
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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milosh

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Unread post23 May 2022, 18:27

I doubt they will cancel Su-57, what I think we would see is getting Su-57 until Su-75 is finished.

Of course they do have work to do with Su-75 but for example engine, sensors and materials were already developed, so they need to do static and flight testing. This is lot easier and cheaper then making whole plane from scratch.
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Unread post24 May 2022, 00:09

milosh wrote:I doubt they will cancel Su-57, what I think we would see is getting Su-57 until Su-75 is finished.


Getting both the Su-57 and the Su-75?? LoL :mrgreen: :doh:
I guess that you also believe in Santa Claus, no? Anyway and with all the technical, funding and resource difficulties which will only get worse due to well know current events and you really, really believe that Russia will be able to develop, build and get two different 5th gen fighter aircraft?! Good luck with that! Even the USA and China have in the first case or is having in the second case, a hard time to field two different 5th gen fighter aircraft. With this, I believe it's not hard to imagine how hard would this be for Russia.


milosh wrote:Of course they do have work to do with Su-75 but for example engine, sensors and materials were already developed, so they need to do static and flight testing. This is lot easier and cheaper then making whole plane from scratch.


Gee, let's see:
- F-35 -> prototype's first flight in 2000, production aircraft first flight 2006, entered in service in 2015.
- Rafale -> prototype's first flight in 1986, production aircraft first flight 1991, entered in service in 2001.
- Typhoon -> prototype's first flight in 1986, production aircraft first flight 1994, entered in service in 2003.
And I could go on...

Yeah, yeah much easier (and cheaper) to test a production aircraft with already its planned engine, sensors and materials and all the associated static and flight testing compared to all and other previous stages such as designing the aircraft "from scratch"... :roll:
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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Unread post24 May 2022, 08:39

Russia won't be selling much more gas or oil to Asia for years to come as there are some really major constraints on that:
https://fortune.com/2022/04/06/china-buys-russia-energy-exports-oil-gas-coal-ukraine-sanctions-thane-gustafson/

Let’s start with oil. The primary Russia export route to China is the East Siberian pipeline (ESPO), which shipped about 700,000 barrels of oil a day in 2021. An additional 900,000 barrels of oil a day were shipped by tanker.

There’s little room for immediate expansion, given constraints in both pipeline capacity and marine terminals. In fact, sending oil by tanker could prove difficult, as traders and shippers shy away from Russian oil. If anything, Russian oil exports to China might even decline over the next year.

Russian gas exports to China have more room to grow. Unused capacity in the existing Power of Siberia 1 pipeline means there’s modest space —at least in theory—for Gazprom to increase its gas deliveries to northeast China over the next few years. But the problem is at the source: the gas resources of East Siberia are modest compared to West Siberia. Moreover, Gazprom is not going to be able to fully develop its two major East Siberian fields, Chayanda and Kovykta, until the mid-2020s at the earliest.


Adding everything up, Gazprom could probably supply an additional 28 billion cubic meters of gas to China by 2025—only a fraction of the 155 billion cubic meters Russia supplied to Europe in 2021.


The proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline could boost Russia’s gas exports to China, but only in the longer term. Gazprom has been promoting this project for nearly a decade, but there is no agreement yet on where the gas will come from and how it would get to China.


Thus the near-term opportunities for a rapid shift of energy exports to the east are limited. For every fuel, logistical problems and transportation constraints get in the way of expanded exports to China. It will take a decade—if not more—for these obstacles to be overcome.

Russia’s energy infrastructure was built to supply markets in Europe, and required half a century to construct. As Europe turns away from Russian fossil fuels, both for reasons of climate and security, this vast system will now have to be pointed toward the east. But that goal can only be achieved at great cost in capital and time. It will not happen overnight.


Sanctions make it very difficult to construct and manufacture much anything anymore in Russia. They have serious problems making tanks or cars now and it's only been couple of months of sanctions. Also most of the Russian oil/gas drilling equipment and mining equipment and technology came from Western countries and now that is unavailable. They will have a lot of problems with expanding capacity of their Eastern oil/gas fields and building large-capacity pipelines to China for example. It would've taken at least a decade without any sanctions or other obstacles and now it's just way more difficult. Asia/China is not going to save them financially. I also doubt they will help that much with technologies and/or products to replace Western ones. China itself is still very reliant on Western technologies and will be for some time to come (very likely couple of decades). Yes they have own tech and are improving but with the help of Western tech and equipment. Helping Russia on large scale would likely result in Western sanctions on China and that would be really bad for them. I doubt they would be dumb enough for that.

So I'd say that their weapons programs have suddenly got a whole lot tougher. Without Western equipment, manufacturing tools and components (like CPUs, DSPs, oscillators, MMICs, ADCs, DACs etc) they will have a lot more trouble developing and manufacturing modern sensors, EW systems and guided weapons. So I really, really doubt Russian capability to manufacture serious numbers of fighter aircraft like Su-57, Su-75 or whatever.
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Unread post24 May 2022, 23:45

The question is can Russia even afford the contracted "76" Su-57s thru 2028? Let alone substantially more post that date!
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Unread post28 May 2022, 10:19

Corsair1963 wrote:The question is can Russia even afford the contracted "76" Su-57s thru 2028? Let alone substantially more post that date!


After read that. I think NO, clearly.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/c ... microchips

Russia's dependence on microelectronics components in the West is overwhelming.
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Unread post28 May 2022, 14:28

53 and 54, or 4 and 5 new one.

Image

So 51, 52 blue, 52 red, 53 and 54 :roll:

Russians! They do unimportant things by the book and important things they don't give a f. to do by the book

As two 52, they have, they for sure have some book reason for that, maybe one is last prototype which is converted in serial so they don't count it as really new one.
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