Russia is,developing a light weight stealth fighter

Military aircraft - Post cold war aircraft, including for example B-2, Gripen, F-18E/F Super Hornet, Rafale, and Typhoon.
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madrat

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Unread post07 Dec 2021, 13:32

China has refused to abide with international sanctions when its Belt & Road policy ran up against. The Russians have been less abrasive. But Chinese influence brings in a flood of their workers while Russian influence was centered around exporting their leadership. Literally, China wants to be more like the West, keeping the equipment maintenance and all technical support under their direct control. If a country wants to use that equipment against Chinese partners, its a no go. Russia sends its equipment and trains how it works at the ground level and mainly does the secret sauce work in Russia. Subtle differences but the latter is easier to swallow for sovereign countries. I don't believe Russia will find a solid Su-75 design difficult to export. Russia will export to countries engaged in an affray. No problem, good for business. Russia is just as dangerous to work with, but they don't interfere in how these sovereign countries throw their weight around.
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mixelflick

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Unread post07 Dec 2021, 14:28

milosh wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:Russia has pretty much conceded the Non-Western Fighter Market to China. If, they acknowledge that or not........


How many J10 or J15 China sold? Zero. Only fighters they exported are J7 and JF17 which is also Pakistan project.

Btw I already explain to mixelflick why China can't count on Flanker market. Most of buyers have problems with China.

So stop your nonsense how China took over russian fighter market when it didn't nor will.


There's some truth in both positions IMO. For example, it's true China hasn't exported many of its more modern fighters. Whereas I've heard Iran, Egypt, Turkey and others might be looking at the J-10, nothing has transpired. And I'm not aware of any new (or even old) Chinese Flanker types being exported. Thus, if and when the J-31/J-35 hits the market - it's going to be a cold sell. These Chinese fighters will be uncharted waters for most customers, unless we're talking about Pakistan or Iran.

OTOH we have plenty of countries still flying Mig-29's and SU-27's. I can't see them re-upping with Mig-35's, and the SU-35 has only been bought by 2 countries. Even an SU-30 geared for export is going to be a tough sell IMO. Enter Checkmate. Might be the preferred solution, but without funding and a foreign investor.... dead in the water. The market is there, but the aircraft to fill it isn't.

If you can't get the F-35, maybe someday you can choose between Checkmate and the J-31/J-35. That's the best case scenario. Until then, Russia and its allies/former allies are going to be in a real pickle. Mig-29's and SU-27's don't age well, and won't last long on the modern battlefield...
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madrat

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Unread post07 Dec 2021, 21:10

There's plenty of used Flankers to peddle off. But why go used Flanker when Russia has 100 used Foxhound to negotiate with? They are beasts, and operate in rare air the Fulcrums and Flankers can only theorize about. And their missiles are an extension of a larger air defense system, so no need to prmote dogfighting. You could leverage those big pylons to offer twin Kh-31 per wing and still carry 2-4 standoff AAM in the undrrcarriage for self-protection. You can squeeze 4 Kh-31 on a Flanker, too, but you have to give up your primary AAM slots.

That big gun is underappreciated for potential to be used for indirect fire from a high-altitude perch. Soviets loved their UPK and SPPU packages.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post07 Dec 2021, 22:51

milosh wrote:
So, what did I get wrong???

Mostly this:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... rators.png

As you can see most of russian fighter users have problems with China.

We can say China could sell fighters to some African states or Venezuela but that isnt all russian fighter market.



So, you believe Russia is going to export the Su-57 and in fairly good numbers??? Because that is the only 5th Generation Fighter that they have to offer......

China on the other hand has at least two (J-20 and J-35) 5th Generation Stealth Fighters. Which, they will produce in at least modest numbers and in multiple versions.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post07 Dec 2021, 22:56

mixelflick wrote:
milosh wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:Russia has pretty much conceded the Non-Western Fighter Market to China. If, they acknowledge that or not........


How many J10 or J15 China sold? Zero. Only fighters they exported are J7 and JF17 which is also Pakistan project.

Btw I already explain to mixelflick why China can't count on Flanker market. Most of buyers have problems with China.

So stop your nonsense how China took over russian fighter market when it didn't nor will.


There's some truth in both positions IMO. For example, it's true China hasn't exported many of its more modern fighters. Whereas I've heard Iran, Egypt, Turkey and others might be looking at the J-10, nothing has transpired. And I'm not aware of any new (or even old) Chinese Flanker types being exported. Thus, if and when the J-31/J-35 hits the market - it's going to be a cold sell. These Chinese fighters will be uncharted waters for most customers, unless we're talking about Pakistan or Iran.

OTOH we have plenty of countries still flying Mig-29's and SU-27's. I can't see them re-upping with Mig-35's, and the SU-35 has only been bought by 2 countries. Even an SU-30 geared for export is going to be a tough sell IMO. Enter Checkmate. Might be the preferred solution, but without funding and a foreign investor.... dead in the water. The market is there, but the aircraft to fill it isn't.

If you can't get the F-35, maybe someday you can choose between Checkmate and the J-31/J-35. That's the best case scenario. Until then, Russia and its allies/former allies are going to be in a real pickle. Mig-29's and SU-27's don't age well, and won't last long on the modern battlefield...


The Checkmate is pure fiction and nobody wants the Su-57. So, the only choice for nations that can't afford or have access to Western Fighters. China is really the only game in town post 2030....

Honestly, have no idea what we're debating???
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milosh

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Unread post08 Dec 2021, 07:58

Corsair1963 wrote:
So, you believe Russia is going to export the Su-57 and in fairly good numbers??? Because that is the only 5th Generation Fighter that they have to offer......

China on the other hand has at least two (J-20 and J-35) 5th Generation Stealth Fighters. Which, they will produce in at least modest numbers and in multiple versions.


O man how many times I need to repeat. China will not sell its fighters to countries which aren't their puppies. Most of Asian users of Flanker arent good with China. And that is russisn market. Those countries if want stealth and LTS don't happen will go with KFX. But for sure they will not buy Chinese.

That is what I wrote.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post08 Dec 2021, 08:07

milosh wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:
So, you believe Russia is going to export the Su-57 and in fairly good numbers??? Because that is the only 5th Generation Fighter that they have to offer......

China on the other hand has at least two (J-20 and J-35) 5th Generation Stealth Fighters. Which, they will produce in at least modest numbers and in multiple versions.


O man how many times I need to repeat. China will not sell its fighters to countries which aren't their puppies. Most of Asian users of Flanker arent good with China. And that is russisn market. Those countries if want stealth and LTS don't happen will go with KFX. But for sure they will not buy Chinese.

That is what I wrote.


I think you will find a number of nations that would be happy to buy from China. Especially, considering Russia has nothing or little to offer.

This becomes even more critical as the US and her Allies produce more and more Stealth Fighters and Bombers.
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milosh

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Unread post08 Dec 2021, 08:31

Corsair1963 wrote:
I think you will find a number of nations that would be happy to buy from China. Especially, considering Russia has nothing or little to offer.

This becomes even more critical as the US and her Allies produce more and more Stealth Fighters and Bombers.


Those nations arent russian market so what the point? You wrote how China will take over russian market which is clear nonsense becuase of geopolitics. I wrote which countries could buy chinese fighters and are part of that market only couple of them at best.

In fact China will probable push their fighter sale in rich ME. They almost build base in UAE. And last time I checked iv is western fighter market not russian :wink:
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Corsair1963

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Unread post08 Dec 2021, 08:49

milosh wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:
I think you will find a number of nations that would be happy to buy from China. Especially, considering Russia has nothing or little to offer.

This becomes even more critical as the US and her Allies produce more and more Stealth Fighters and Bombers.


Those nations arent russian market so what the point? You wrote how China will take over russian market which is clear nonsense becuase of geopolitics. I wrote which countries could buy chinese fighters and are part of that market only couple of them at best.

In fact China will probable push their fighter sale in rich ME. They almost build base in UAE. And last time I checked iv is western fighter market not russian :wink:


So, I guess countless nations around the world. Are just going to disband their air forces. As what is the point of flying 4th Generation Fighters into the 2040's - 2050's???
:roll:
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milosh

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Unread post08 Dec 2021, 09:11

Chinese can enter in ME and S.America those are rich markets which buying modern jets. And those arent russian market.

If you wrote Chinese could enter in western market your statement would be right :mrgreen:

@madrat

No one wanted 31 in 90s when Ruskies offered new build ones. Cost of operating supersonic locomotive is huge. Russia was forced to ground 31s fleet in 1990s.

Now Russia don't want to sell them becuase they need any in good condition for upgrades and K version.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post08 Dec 2021, 10:04

milosh wrote:Chinese can enter in ME and S.America those are rich markets which buying modern jets. And those arent russian market.

If you wrote Chinese could enter in western market your statement would be right :mrgreen:

@madrat

No one wanted 31 in 90s when Ruskies offered new build ones. Cost of operating supersonic locomotive is huge. Russia was forced to ground 31s fleet in 1990s.

Now Russia don't want to sell them becuase they need any in good condition for upgrades and K version.


You just don't get it? Russia has "nothing" to sell.... :shock: This leaves most of her former or current customers of fighters in play.....

Honestly, what don't you get???
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milosh

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Unread post08 Dec 2021, 12:58

Don't spin, you wrote China will take Russian market I wrote why it wouldn't. Nothing else. I didn't wrote it is forever Russian market. Nope. In fact I mentioned Korea as alternative.

China can endanger western market in SA and ME but you don't even write about that at all :?
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madrat

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Unread post08 Dec 2021, 14:04

MiG-31 has bones needed for a brilliant combination of standoff prosecution of distant targets and endurance. MiG never realized the potential there, especially once it increased its added airborne refeulling and support for much longer time on station. They really needed to incorporate more missions into the airframe. The only MiG-31E offered was a monkey model of MiG-31B. Whoopee. No targeting pods. No glide-bombs that could go in the undercarriage. No pylons for combinations of R-77 and R-73. No common jamming pods with other aircraft. No RWR/ECCM development. No uniform pylon system to make integration of other ordnance any easier. Everything designed to take custom work to expand its usage from the original mission.

MiG is a dead company which is why there is no forward-thinking innovation coming out of it. Even the hypersonic missile program was forced upon them, even when high and fast flight enables obvious advantages. It is no wonder the Su-75 is from Sukhoi engineering.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post08 Dec 2021, 22:27

milosh wrote:Don't spin, you wrote China will take Russian market I wrote why it wouldn't. Nothing else. I didn't wrote it is forever Russian market. Nope. In fact I mentioned Korea as alternative.

China can endanger western market in SA and ME but you don't even write about that at all :?


I don't see China being too much of a threat to traditional customers of Western Fighters. Yet, like I said they're a big threat to Russia. As it doesn't have anything really to offer in the next 20 years except the Su-57. Which, no one seems interested in....


Honestly, can't make it any clearer than that......
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nutshell

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Unread post09 Dec 2021, 01:22

Say Egyptians want something that could last at least a couple of minutes before getting jammed back to year 1918, what should they do?

Russia can't give them anything that can prevent those pesky Adir to draw penises around their su35s.
Otoh is possible to get into the People's Joint Discount Fighter program and get one of those proper 5th gen fighter from China.

We all know what the Egyptians would do and so EVERY FORMER russian customers.

P.s
Unless it's a Turkey like scenario, just out of pure politics, you won't have a western country buying Chinese.
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