Russia is,developing a light weight stealth fighter

Military aircraft - Post cold war aircraft, including for example B-2, Gripen, F-18E/F Super Hornet, Rafale, and Typhoon.
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tphuang

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Unread post02 Dec 2021, 23:52

madrat wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:
They need a partner and a large volume of orders. Again both unlikely......


It would need to be a really large partner. One that can place over 100 orders. Seems like a bad idea when su-57 also needs a large partner to gets its costs down. This is not the 80s anymore when Soviets had money to buy hundreds of both su-27 and Mig-29s. More importantly, the air forces that are bargain hunting don't need a 5th generation aircraft.

Honestly, I'm not so sure Flanker was a wise option to unify behind. No ex-Soviet fighter stood a chance h2h against AMRAAM-equipped fighters, but they had an edge with slash attacks and standoff interceptions. After the Cold War the focus was moer localized, too, so Flankers were overkill for many missions. MiG-31 and MiG-23MLD/-2000 platforms could have evolved around the D-30 turbojet in strategic aviation. MiG-29K was superior to Su-33, so all that latter development became a waste. You could probably have afforded MiG-27 using an Al-31 variant since it was better engine-life than the original turbojet-powered MiG-27 and the engine in the ground-attack version of MiG-23. For long-range aviation they could have grown both internal fuel loads and refueling options, rather than going with expensive Flankers. Su-24 and Su-27 could have been withdrawn, with their missions literally being obsolete.


I think that decision might have been made based on the export orders. The two large Sukhoi plants (KNAAPO and Irkut) did the best when it came to securing export contracts from China and India. So, they ended up doing the best.
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madrat

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Unread post03 Dec 2021, 03:13

Sukhoi was in a better position financially in that time period, and their staff was supposedly less blue on top. So it may have been an unavoidable outcome.
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milosh

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Unread post03 Dec 2021, 08:05

@Mixflick

Russia did finish Su57 with worse economical situation without any partner. I don't do you watch news but natural gas price gone trough roof in last months and it happen when new long therm deals need to sign with Russia. Also effects of western sanctions are lower now then in critical period of Su57 development.

So money really isn't problem but still LTS need big order to be cheap as they marketed it.

I would expect RuAF order around 100 at least to replace oldest MiG29. They buy MiG35 but becuse it wasn't finish they decide to bought only smallish number in fact I saw news they order new 29M which aren't cheap. So I think it would be smart to halt 29s replacement with 35s or 29M and invest in LTS.
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madrat

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Unread post03 Dec 2021, 14:27

Su-57 isn't even in LRIP stage yet. Every one is hand built which is basically the opposite of serial production. It's wrong to suggest the design is finished.
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mixelflick

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Unread post03 Dec 2021, 18:17

milosh wrote:@Mixflick

Russia did finish Su57 with worse economical situation without any partner. I don't do you watch news but natural gas price gone trough roof in last months and it happen when new long therm deals need to sign with Russia. Also effects of western sanctions are lower now then in critical period of Su57 development.

So money really isn't problem but still LTS need big order to be cheap as they marketed it.

I would expect RuAF order around 100 at least to replace oldest MiG29. They buy MiG35 but becuse it wasn't finish they decide to bought only smallish number in fact I saw news they order new 29M which aren't cheap. So I think it would be smart to halt 29s replacement with 35s or 29M and invest in LTS.


I understand what you're trying to say Milosh. They took the SU-57 a lot farther than I figured they would, especially after India pulled out. But as Madrat pointed out, it's not exactly finished as we would see it anyway in the West. If we look at the time period where the US had built 2 or 3 F-22's or F-35's.... either program would be seen as extremely premature. Certainly far from finished let's say.

I would agree 100 Checkmates for Russia would be a good start, but a few issues arise. Let's just put $ aside and assume that isn't an issue. Can Russia wait for another 5 to 10 years to replace its older Mig-29's? Those airframes don't exactly last for 4,000 plus hours like Western jets.
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milosh

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Unread post04 Dec 2021, 07:45

madrat wrote:Su-57 isn't even in LRIP stage yet. Every one is hand built which is basically the opposite of serial production. It's wrong to suggest the design is finished.


By US or PRC standard it is very slow production rate. In fact when dedicated production line os ready it would be around 20 per year. This year it is 4 without Su57 production line and in 2022 is expected to be 8.

But it isnt axed when India left.

With Su75 they do have solution to fill gap of low Su57 production numbers for example lts variant which have same RAM and sensors as Su57.

For MiG29 replacment they could buy cheaper variant with cheaper sensors, less capable RAM or without it at all it would still have much lower RCS theb plane it replace.
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mixelflick

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Unread post04 Dec 2021, 15:51

At issues with these "stealth light" designs is this: They'll supposedly have lower signatures than 4th gen designs, yet larger signatures than 5th. How much "less" stealth is enough to convey a tactical advantage?

If there's not enough stealth, it defeats the purpose of acquiring a stealth platform. It'll still get creamed by AESA equipped fighters with AIM-120D/Meteor, or alternatively tracked by ground/sea based radars and weapons. If there's too much, it'll likely be too expensive. Nobody here is going to know the anwer to that question, as nobody really knows the RCS of the various iterations of the SU-75 being proposed.

TBH, I'm not even sure if Sukhoi knows yet. That'll have to come out in testing, and its unlikley they "nail it" on the first go-around. But hey, maybe I'm wrong. I just can't picture any nation paying for factory fresh "stealth" jets that really aren't, then get crushed in combat when they really need them. Whoever gave the green light to acquire them is going to be quickly out of a job!
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madrat

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Unread post04 Dec 2021, 15:57

Make no misinterpretations of the Su-75 strategy. These will never be stealth enough to be offensive to NATO. They will never be equal to F-35A. But they will offer is a deterrent to any aggressor. And they double as an export potential in the future, sticking to their previous successes with MiGs and Sukhois.

Su-57 rate is so low they can - and will - alter the design as they learn more about its faults. Once the Su-75 design is stabilized it will take only 2-3 years to outnumber Su-57. By that time China will have J-31 in serial production and probably be working on the successor to J-20.

Russia would be wise to work on being friendly to economic development with their non-Chinese neighbors, because if China ever decides to muscle them they may need a coalition to push back. Europe has gone out of its way to allow Russia to do just that but look what they've done in Crimean peninsula and former Soviet block countries. Russia really should go a new direction to develop diplomacy that doesn't bludgeon everyone around them. The sad thing is they have so many similar problems to their European and Asian neighbors in order to find common ground.
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tphuang

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Unread post05 Dec 2021, 11:32

madrat wrote:Make no misinterpretations of the Su-75 strategy. These will never be stealth enough to be offensive to NATO. They will never be equal to F-35A. But they will offer is a deterrent to any aggressor. And they double as an export potential in the future, sticking to their previous successes with MiGs and Sukhois.

Su-57 rate is so low they can - and will - alter the design as they learn more about its faults. Once the Su-75 design is stabilized it will take only 2-3 years to outnumber Su-57. By that time China will have J-31 in serial production and probably be working on the successor to J-20.

Russia would be wise to work on being friendly to economic development with their non-Chinese neighbors, because if China ever decides to muscle them they may need a coalition to push back. Europe has gone out of its way to allow Russia to do just that but look what they've done in Crimean peninsula and former Soviet block countries. Russia really should go a new direction to develop diplomacy that doesn't bludgeon everyone around them. The sad thing is they have so many similar problems to their European and Asian neighbors in order to find common ground.


This China will decide to take advantage of Russia speak is just nonsense. It's not going to happen. China Is not going to have military exercises with Russia with their latest hardware unless they intend to have an alliance with Russia. There are no border disputes between the two countries. Those were resolved 20 years ago. China has too many issues of its own to want to start another one with a neighbor that it depends on for energy security.

What has NATO and the EU done for Russia other than expanding into its backyard and adding member states that used to be under USSR orbit? As long as Russia still intends to be a world power, it will continue its current actions.
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milosh

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Unread post05 Dec 2021, 13:02

@mixelflick

Non stealth LTS make sense. Look 4.5gen fighters most of them are marketed as LO some even as VLO designs like that questionable study of Gripen C rcs done by sweden institute or Rafale active stealth. Neither really have stealth shape nor internal weapons.

Now you have LTS which do have real stealth shape and carry weapons internal so it is noticeable smaller on radar in real life scenarios.
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mixelflick

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Unread post05 Dec 2021, 17:07

That's true Milosh... when Checkmate is compared vs. jets like Rafale and Gripen. But if you're the Russians, there are two reasons to be concerned IMO...

1.) Checkmate has to be significantly stealthier than those jets, plus cheaper (let's give them both).
2.) The timing

With respect to #2: Checkmate will allegedly be ready for sale by 2026/2027 (which is probably optimistic but again, let's give that to them). French officials have said Rafale deliveries to the UAE will begin in 2027. They'e spending 19 billion for 80 of these jets. Egypt too, just re-upped for 30 more Rafale's for $4.5 billion, with deliveries planned to run from 2024 through 2026. And let's not forget - Egypt just dropped a fair amount of $ paying for Russian SU-35's and new Mig-29's.

It's hard to reconcile either of these countries spending even more on another "strike fighter". Concurrent acquisition just doesn't seem economically feasible, nor does it make logistical sense. Especially in the UAE's case, where they'll have presumably already have spent billions investing in its development.

Ditto for India, who should be announcing the winner of their fighter competition soon. Can't see them acquiring let's say more Rafale's or Super Hornets (or even Mig-35's), then placing another large order for Checkmates. Timing then to me, seems to be the bigger issue.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post05 Dec 2021, 23:57

Russia has pretty much conceded the Non-Western Fighter Market to China. If, they acknowledge that or not........
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milosh

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Unread post07 Dec 2021, 08:15

Corsair1963 wrote:Russia has pretty much conceded the Non-Western Fighter Market to China. If, they acknowledge that or not........


How many J10 or J15 China sold? Zero. Only fighters they exported are J7 and JF17 which is also Pakistan project.

Btw I already explain to mixelflick why China can't count on Flanker market. Most of buyers have problems with China.

So stop your nonsense how China took over russian fighter market when it didn't nor will.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post07 Dec 2021, 10:22

milosh wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:Russia has pretty much conceded the Non-Western Fighter Market to China. If, they acknowledge that or not........


How many J10 or J15 China sold? Zero. Only fighters they exported are J7 and JF17 which is also Pakistan project.

Btw I already explain to mixelflick why China can't count on Flanker market. Most of buyers have problems with China.

So stop your nonsense how China took over russian fighter market when it didn't nor will.



First, I was talking about the future 5th Generation Fighter Market. (Non-Western) As for sales of older 4/4.5 Generation Fighters. They're quickly coming to the end....

Nonetheless, Russia only has the Su-57 to offer and nobody wants it. Hell, the RuAF is only acquiring 76 aircraft over the next decade!

This while the Chinese have the J-20 in mass production. Which, will be followed by the forthcoming J-31/J-35. In both cases, China can afford to build both in large numbers. (and Russia can't)

So, what did I get wrong???
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milosh

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Unread post07 Dec 2021, 10:51

So, what did I get wrong???

Mostly this:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... rators.png

As you can see most of russian fighter users have problems with China.

We can say China could sell fighters to some African states or Venezuela but that isnt all russian fighter market.
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