Russia is,developing a light weight stealth fighter

Military aircraft - Post cold war aircraft, including for example B-2, Gripen, F-18E/F Super Hornet, Rafale, and Typhoon.
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milosh

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Unread post30 Nov 2021, 09:46

Corsair1963 wrote:Russia is building like 8-9 per year. Which, speaks volumes.........


Again wrong. This year it is 4 build inside Flanker production line so it isn't serial production. Next year plan is 8 and then 12 per year in new facility which probable will be done so SU75 can be build parallel to SU57 in future.

12 doesn't sound much but F22 production rate for 10 years was around 18.

F35 do have much higher production rate but it is single engined design.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post30 Nov 2021, 10:23

milosh wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:Russia is building like 8-9 per year. Which, speaks volumes.........


Again wrong. This year it is 4 build inside Flanker production line so it isn't serial production. Next year plan is 8 and then 12 per year in new facility which probable will be done so SU75 can be build parallel to SU57 in future.

12 doesn't sound much but F22 production rate for 10 years was around 18.

F35 do have much higher production rate but it is single engined design.



In 2020 Russia placed an order for 76 Su-57's that was supposed to be completed by 2028. So, 76 aircraft divided by 9 years = 8.444

Also, I believe your average Russian Fighter Regiment has 4-5 Squadrons with 12-15 Aircraft. (48-75) So, in nearly a decade Russia may be able to field a single Fighter Regiment with Su-57's. (not very impressive)

As for your prediction about the Checkmate/Su-75 just wild speculation. As the Russian Government hasn't funded it. Nor, have they found any outside partner interested in it either. So, your endless claims hold virtually no water at all.....
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milosh

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Unread post30 Nov 2021, 12:21

So they are making SU57 close to half of F22 rate 18 per year. Not bad for country which go through breakup of soviet union and economic downfall of 1990s.

When Murica go trough something similar and be able to make more newest gen fighters as RF do you can say nothing impressive for what Russia did.
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mixelflick

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Unread post30 Nov 2021, 16:02

They may very well have 76 on order now, but are those fully funded ? They may be, they may not. Even if we assume they follow through with the full order, that's still less than half the Raptor's skeleton force. Assuming the same % of combat coded airframes, that leaves them just 50 or so Felons.

They have put themselves in a tough spot. I don't think 50 Felon's buys them much capability beyond the current SU-30SM/SU-35 fleet. If they still insist on proceeding, they will pay handsomely for each one, along with what I can only imagine will be horrific maintenance, spare parts and costs per flight hour, along with dismal mission capable rates. Or, they can shut the program down now, salvage what they can and go full tilt with the SU-75.

If it were me I'd kill the SU-57, go big with the SU-75 and start filling out front line units with them as quickly as possible. By the 2030's they'd have hundreds of 4++ gen Flankers and a similar number of Checkmates. Best they can do IMO, given there's so much out of their control. A robust fleet of domestic Checkmates is within their control though, and probably the best bet they have at attracting foreign buys.

The alternative would be 4++ Flankers and a token SU-57 force. So 20 years on, the Flanker would still be the crux of Russian (fighter) airpower. They've been relying on that bird for decades now. That won't last much longer...
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milosh

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Unread post30 Nov 2021, 22:09

SU75 and SU57 share lot of things so maintaining small fleet of SU57 wouldn't be that problem if they also make SU75 if not then it is problem. This is why I would be very surprised if they don't go with SU75 for RuAF.
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tphuang

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Unread post30 Nov 2021, 23:56

milosh wrote:SU75 use lot of SU57 and SU35 components for example it jsve SU35 engine and airframe parts of SU57 so it use already in production parts. Radar is also already developed and ols only EOTS like sensor isnt but it isn't expected for el cheapo variant.

Why el cheapo? Beacuse they get real LO for low price.


I'm afraid it doesn't work like that. Building demonstrator costs a lot of money. Building prototypes cost a lot of money. Going through a long test program costs a lot of money. You can't reuse parts from su-35/su-57 on su-75. The dimensions aren't the same. All the subsystem providers will have to design the parts for su-75 based on dimension/strength/weight requirements of su-75. More importantly, you have to somehow piece everything together to have a production line. And a production line only becomes more cost efficient with more experience and volume. Without a large order, you cannot make the investment into producing parts cheaply. You cannot make the investment into making production lines really cost efficient. There is a reason that aircraft programs are always heavily loss making in the beginning and only start making money when production ramps up.

And the problem for Russia is that Su-57 and su-75 have very low volume. You cannot achieve cost saving while producing 8 a year. That doesn't work.

The initial su-57s had quite low build quality for a 5th generation aircraft. I'm not sure it was built to a better quality than su-35. That has a huge impact on the stealth performance of the aircraft. As Russia improves the build quality of su-57, that requires huge investment into manufacturing and assembly. All of that costs money. Same thing will happen when they start production on su-75.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post01 Dec 2021, 00:32

tphuang wrote:
milosh wrote:SU75 use lot of SU57 and SU35 components for example it jsve SU35 engine and airframe parts of SU57 so it use already in production parts. Radar is also already developed and ols only EOTS like sensor isnt but it isn't expected for el cheapo variant.

Why el cheapo? Beacuse they get real LO for low price.


I'm afraid it doesn't work like that. Building demonstrator costs a lot of money. Building prototypes cost a lot of money. Going through a long test program costs a lot of money. You can't reuse parts from su-35/su-57 on su-75. The dimensions aren't the same. All the subsystem providers will have to design the parts for su-75 based on dimension/strength/weight requirements of su-75. More importantly, you have to somehow piece everything together to have a production line. And a production line only becomes more cost efficient with more experience and volume. Without a large order, you cannot make the investment into producing parts cheaply. You cannot make the investment into making production lines really cost efficient. There is a reason that aircraft programs are always heavily loss making in the beginning and only start making money when production ramps up.

And the problem for Russia is that Su-57 and su-75 have very low volume. You cannot achieve cost saving while producing 8 a year. That doesn't work.

The initial su-57s had quite low build quality for a 5th generation aircraft. I'm not sure it was built to a better quality than su-35. That has a huge impact on the stealth performance of the aircraft. As Russia improves the build quality of su-57, that requires huge investment into manufacturing and assembly. All of that costs money. Same thing will happen when they start production on su-75.



Well said.....

As a matter of fact the low quoted price for the Checkmate/Su-75. Would only be achievable if the aircraft was built in "vast" numbers. This seems very unlikely without Russian or an outside partner "heavily" investing in the program. Which, at this stage seems highly unlikely!

In short I think the program is going nowhere....... :|
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milosh

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Unread post01 Dec 2021, 07:27

@tphuang

Of course not all is same but it is clear SU57 and SU75 share wings, v stabs, weapon bay, cockpit and probable sensors.

Engine on other hand is mass produced Al41F1
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Corsair1963

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Unread post01 Dec 2021, 08:12

milosh wrote:@tphuang

Of course not all is same but it is clear SU57 and SU75 share wings, v stabs, weapon bay, cockpit and probable sensors.

Engine on other hand is mass produced Al41F1



Honestly, the whole discussion is moot. If, they can't find a partner or partners for the Checkmate/Su-75 and one with deep pockets at that....

So, aren't we really putting the cart before the horse in that respect?
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milosh

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Unread post01 Dec 2021, 11:55

Corsair1963 wrote:
milosh wrote:@tphuang

Of course not all is same but it is clear SU57 and SU75 share wings, v stabs, weapon bay, cockpit and probable sensors.

Engine on other hand is mass produced Al41F1



Honestly, the whole discussion is moot. If, they can't find a partner or partners for the Checkmate/Su-75 and one with deep pockets at that....

So, aren't we really putting the cart before the horse in that respect?


Of course. Our discussion is if they got partner can price be really low or not.
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Unread post01 Dec 2021, 19:02

milosh wrote:@tphuang

Of course not all is same but it is clear SU57 and SU75 share wings, v stabs, weapon bay, cockpit and probable sensors.

Engine on other hand is mass produced Al41F1


In a structural sense, using major components (wings, tails) from a SU-57 on a SU-75 is not an optimum solution. If a surface experiences lower loads in the -75, it is over weight, but if higher loads are encountered, maneuver limits must be imposed, and in some cases both occur at the same time. Problem is, in some fight conditions, over loading will occur, and in other conditions, under loading will occur. Inevitably, the surface (and the airplane) will be both over weight and maneuver limited. I'm guessing that's why the SU-75 is an 8g airplane rather than 9g like most modern fighters.

Using those components may save design and manufacturing costs, but a complete new structural analysis (load, stress, and durability) must be performed to find where these differences occur, followed by extensive ground based static and durability tests and flight tests to verify strength capability and structural loads in the new environment. No free lunch.

Flying Qualities, Stability and Control, and Performance characteristics will likely also be non-optimum for similar reasons.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post01 Dec 2021, 22:36

milosh wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:
milosh wrote:@tphuang

Of course not all is same but it is clear SU57 and SU75 share wings, v stabs, weapon bay, cockpit and probable sensors.

Engine on other hand is mass produced Al41F1



Honestly, the whole discussion is moot. If, they can't find a partner or partners for the Checkmate/Su-75 and one with deep pockets at that....

So, aren't we really putting the cart before the horse in that respect?


Of course. Our discussion is if they got partner can price be really low or not.



They need a partner and a large volume of orders. Again both unlikely......
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tphuang

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Unread post02 Dec 2021, 13:30

Corsair1963 wrote:
They need a partner and a large volume of orders. Again both unlikely......


It would need to be a really large partner. One that can place over 100 orders. Seems like a bad idea when su-57 also needs a large partner to gets its costs down. This is not the 80s anymore when Soviets had money to buy hundreds of both su-27 and Mig-29s. More importantly, the air forces that are bargain hunting don't need a 5th generation aircraft.
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mixelflick

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Unread post02 Dec 2021, 16:46

tphuang wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:
They need a partner and a large volume of orders. Again both unlikely......


It would need to be a really large partner. One that can place over 100 orders. Seems like a bad idea when su-57 also needs a large partner to gets its costs down. This is not the 80s anymore when Soviets had money to buy hundreds of both su-27 and Mig-29s. More importantly, the air forces that are bargain hunting don't need a 5th generation aircraft.


Agree here.

And that's what the Russians (at least in part) say they're developing Checkmate for. Need something stealthier than a Flanker? You get "Checkmate light". Need more stealth? You can get the full blown Checkmate. Problem being, it's going to take a whole lotta $ to get to either solution. More than the Russians have today. Likely a lot more. As you said, it's going to take an order of at least 100 to justify the expense.

The alternative is to keep building Flanker derivatives. Just who's going to want/buy those though in another 10 years is seriously in question. As it stands, only China and Egypt have bought the SU-35 and China's order was a token one at best.
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Unread post02 Dec 2021, 17:21

tphuang wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:
They need a partner and a large volume of orders. Again both unlikely......


It would need to be a really large partner. One that can place over 100 orders. Seems like a bad idea when su-57 also needs a large partner to gets its costs down. This is not the 80s anymore when Soviets had money to buy hundreds of both su-27 and Mig-29s. More importantly, the air forces that are bargain hunting don't need a 5th generation aircraft.

Honestly, I'm not so sure Flanker was a wise option to unify behind. No ex-Soviet fighter stood a chance h2h against AMRAAM-equipped fighters, but they had an edge with slash attacks and standoff interceptions. After the Cold War the focus was moer localized, too, so Flankers were overkill for many missions. MiG-31 and MiG-23MLD/-2000 platforms could have evolved around the D-30 turbojet in strategic aviation. MiG-29K was superior to Su-33, so all that latter development became a waste. You could probably have afforded MiG-27 using an Al-31 variant since it was better engine-life than the original turbojet-powered MiG-27 and the engine in the ground-attack version of MiG-23. For long-range aviation they could have grown both internal fuel loads and refueling options, rather than going with expensive Flankers. Su-24 and Su-27 could have been withdrawn, with their missions literally being obsolete.
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