J-20 goes operational again

Military aircraft - Post cold war aircraft, including for example B-2, Gripen, F-18E/F Super Hornet, Rafale, and Typhoon.
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tphuang

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Unread post20 Oct 2021, 14:20

wrightwing wrote:Which is why they're not using omni-directional transmissions that can be detected by dispersed aircraft, or even the aircraft that's being targeted, necessarily.


you think they are going to be really dispersed. I don't see why that has to be the case or at least why they can't be in approximately the same general direction vs the aircraft doing the jamming. There are going to be a lot of aircraft and drones around.

If one aircraft is doing jamming and the other one is trying to detect jamming. Or if that's radar tracking. If they are close to the same generation. The one that's doing passive detection will detect it ahead of the one doing the active detection. Fundamentally, trying to actively find something and chasing it down is harder than trying to hide.


The target aircraft can be tracked without continuous radar emissions. If the target is trying to sneak up on a high value asset, there aren't going to be a lot of other aircraft/drones in the area, to tip their hand. F-35s are going to have huge advantages in situational awareness, signature management, and stealthiness. They're also going to have to get past SM-6 etc...before they ever have to worry about AIM-120/260.

Nobody is saying that USN/AF don't have a huge advantage in stealth, situational awareness or training. The problem is that any realistic scenario we are discussing here would involve USN having to deal with a lot of land based or littoral assets. There is going to be drones and 4th generation aircraft everywhere. PLAAF will have a huge numerical advantage here. A number of J-20s will probably be tasked with hunting high value assets, but rest of them will be tasked with air defense also. USN ships will be kept very busy. Believe me on this one. J-20s will be flying in a way to evade detection rather than trying to actively engage. And depending on what missiles are being used, J-20 might not need to be that close.

All I'm saying is that it's much harder to find J-20 in this case, keep tracking it long enough to score a hit vs a scenario where there are approximately same number of 5th aircraft around and they are just trying to shoot each other down.

Anyway, thanks for the discussion. I appreciate your patience in explaining some of these points to me.
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weasel1962

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Unread post20 Oct 2021, 17:49

tphuang wrote:The problem is that any realistic scenario we are discussing here would involve USN having to deal with a lot of land based or littoral assets. There is going to be drones and 4th generation aircraft everywhere. PLAAF will have a huge numerical advantage here. A number of J-20s will probably be tasked with hunting high value assets, but rest of them will be tasked with air defense also. USN ships will be kept very busy. Believe me on this one. J-20s will be flying in a way to evade detection rather than trying to actively engage. And depending on what missiles are being used, J-20 might not need to be that close.


Consider this scenario. China invades Taiwan. US does a desert shield in Japan. China has 2 options.

Option A, China pre-emptively strikes Japan. ROW joins in. China doesn't have the force structure to take on everyone else. Striking Japan first loses China the moral ground. No win for China.

Option B, China holds off. USAF deploys fully into Japan. No more PLAAF numerical advantage. When fully deployed US moves to Desert Storm. If China doesn't take Taiwan by then, its game over. Desert Shield took a month. Even if China has taken Taiwan by then, its still game over. Japan has much better infrastructure than the Saudis. Despite all the drumming up of the Taiwan threat, realistically China still doesn't have sufficient force structure yet. The PLA has studied Desert Storm. They know what will happen.

China's only real hope is if Japan doesn't join the war. I'm guessing under 5% chance of that happening. They can't even threaten nukes with the US umbrella. Its galling to the Chinese but reality's a bi*tch. There are very few scenarios where the PLAAF will really have an advantage. Actual risk of war over next decade is zero so long as Japan stays onside.
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wrightwing

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Unread post21 Oct 2021, 03:38

tphuang wrote:




If one aircraft is doing jamming and the other one is trying to detect jamming. Or if that's radar tracking. If they are close to the same generation. The one that's doing passive detection will detect it ahead of the one doing the active detection. Fundamentally, trying to actively find something and chasing it down is harder than trying to hide.



Here's what I'm trying to get at. The jamming is precise enough, to not only target a single platform, but target it in a way to minimize the the target's ability to detect the jamming. In others words, the planes/drones accompanying the target won't see the signal, or they may be jammed with narrow bands, too.
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jessmo112

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Unread post21 Oct 2021, 06:05

tphuang wrote:
wrightwing wrote:Which is why they're not using omni-directional transmissions that can be detected by dispersed aircraft, or even the aircraft that's being targeted, necessarily.


you think they are going to be really dispersed. I don't see why that has to be the case or at least why they can't be in approximately the same general direction vs the aircraft doing the jamming. There are going to be a lot of aircraft and drones around.

If one aircraft is doing jamming and the other one is trying to detect jamming. Or if that's radar tracking. If they are close to the same generation. The one that's doing passive detection will detect it ahead of the one doing the active detection. Fundamentally, trying to actively find something and chasing it down is harder than trying to hide.


The target aircraft can be tracked without continuous radar emissions. If the target is trying to sneak up on a high value asset, there aren't going to be a lot of other aircraft/drones in the area, to tip their hand. F-35s are going to have huge advantages in situational awareness, signature management, and stealthiness. They're also going to have to get past SM-6 etc...before they ever have to worry about AIM-120/260.

Nobody is saying that USN/AF don't have a huge advantage in stealth, situational awareness or training. The problem is that any realistic scenario we are discussing here would involve USN having to deal with a lot of land based or littoral assets. There is going to be drones and 4th generation aircraft everywhere. PLAAF will have a huge numerical advantage here. A number of J-20s will probably be tasked with hunting high value assets, but rest of them will be tasked with air defense also. USN ships will be kept very busy. Believe me on this one. J-20s will be flying in a way to evade detection rather than trying to actively engage. And depending on what missiles are being used, J-20 might not need to be that close.

All I'm saying is that it's much harder to find J-20 in this case, keep tracking it long enough to score a hit vs a scenario where there are approximately same number of 5th aircraft around and they are just trying to shoot each other down.

Anyway, thanks for the discussion. I appreciate your patience in explaining some of these points to me.


With hundreds of planes and ships flying around the Chinese will have a difficult time with situational awareness. We don't know how if they have a blue force tracker knock off.What are the rules of engagement?
Not only do you have planes and ships in the Area, but MALD can imitate signals. I would put a circuit of MALDs in a pattern and let the clever Chinese shoot at them frombrange.
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Unread post21 Oct 2021, 15:53

As I see Chinese will use its military might only when they are sure US will be able to do much less, and that is only in 2030s. In 2020s they will act as tough but in reality they will not make move, US on other hand wouldn't make move too because there is lot of unknowns, for example how Russia will act, or what if Xi press big red button!

Japan is also in awful position, if they aren't part of war, China do have big advantage, and Japan have problem with US bases what to do when China attack them. But if Japan enter in war, it know China will go for soft targets in Japan which would practicly end Japan, for example going for nuclear power plants with convetional weapons, it isn't direct nuclear attack so US can't use its nukes or it can be use as bait for US to use nukes maybe some hotheads in China just want reason to use nukes but they don't want to be first.

So 2030s is lot more realistic for WW3 scenario then 2020s.

For example China will be noticeable more powerful and in some social problems.

US wouldn't be as dominant as it is today and it too would have some social problems.

US could built quite powerful alliance against China espeacilly if Japan move from nuclear power plants.

Russia could be in problems because Vlad would be old or wouldn't be there at all and could be more closer to west then ever before because if Russia is in problems China would surely look at its huge Siberia as easy grab.

So Russia could be benevalent in 2030s war or maybe even silent ally to US alliance but it would be less helpfull then what today's Russia would be for China.
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Unread post21 Oct 2021, 18:24

milosh wrote:As I see Chinese will use its military might only when they are sure US will be able to do much less, and that is only in 2030s. In 2020s they will act as tough but in reality they will not make move, US on other hand wouldn't make move too because there is lot of unknowns, for example how Russia will act, or what if Xi press big red button!

Japan is also in awful position, if they aren't part of war, China do have big advantage, and Japan have problem with US bases what to do when China attack them. But if Japan enter in war, it know China will go for soft targets in Japan which would practicly end Japan, for example going for nuclear power plants with convetional weapons, it isn't direct nuclear attack so US can't use its nukes or it can be use as bait for US to use nukes maybe some hotheads in China just want reason to use nukes but they don't want to be first.

So 2030s is lot more realistic for WW3 scenario then 2020s.

For example China will be noticeable more powerful and in some social problems.

US wouldn't be as dominant as it is today and it too would have some social problems.

US could built quite powerful alliance against China espeacilly if Japan move from nuclear power plants.

Russia could be in problems because Vlad would be old or wouldn't be there at all and could be more closer to west then ever before because if Russia is in problems China would surely look at its huge Siberia as easy grab.

So Russia could be benevalent in 2030s war or maybe even silent ally to US alliance but it would be less helpfull then what today's Russia would be for China.


Have you seen the latest Japanese white paper? Do you realize that the Japanese still refuse to acknowledge some atrocious committed over 70 years ago?
They are pacifists now, but honor is very important in this part of the world. Do you really think if missiles start to rain down on Okinawa and other places they will suffer this dishonor? If Taiwan falls then what about all other disputed islands? The Chinese also claim, Okinawa, the senekus, Vladivostok, Guam, and If I'm not mistaken Hawaii.
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tphuang

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Unread post21 Oct 2021, 21:13

jessmo112 wrote:With hundreds of planes and ships flying around the Chinese will have a difficult time with situational awareness. We don't know how if they have a blue force tracker knock off.What are the rules of engagement?
Not only do you have planes and ships in the Area, but MALD can imitate signals. I would put a circuit of MALDs in a pattern and let the clever Chinese shoot at them frombrange.


you are right. There won't just be planes and ships. There will be a whole lot of drones and decoys everywhere on both sides. It would be a very complicated battlefield. Too complicated for my little brain to work out. A lot of opportunities for air forces to train and see what works in reality. Of course, USAF has a decade or 2 of head start in terms of including stealth aircraft in these training vs anyone else.

Also a good question question if PLAAF can manage the logistics of a large group of aircraft on a consistent basis. How often are the J-20s available for usage? How much down time does it need after 1 sortie?
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Unread post21 Oct 2021, 21:57

I don't know, but I suspect that engine reliability will be a serious issue with the Chinese.
Even more so when depots and hangers are blown up.
The U.S. has the advantage of having its maintenance areas a world away. What's the life of a J-20 engine again? For China a war needs to end fast.
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Unread post22 Oct 2021, 00:18

jessmo112 wrote:Have you seen the latest Japanese white paper? Do you realize that the Japanese still refuse to acknowledge some atrocious committed over 70 years ago?
They are pacifists now, but honor is very important in this part of the world. Do you really think if missiles start to rain down on Okinawa and other places they will suffer this dishonor? If Taiwan falls then what about all other disputed islands? The Chinese also claim, Okinawa, the senekus, Vladivostok, Guam, and If I'm not mistaken Hawaii.


You’re mistaken, China has never claimed Hawaii, I don’t know where you got that from.

China is using some of Japan’s politicians’ refusal to acknowledge atrocities for political points, which is worthless. Japan as a whole doesn’t deny the atrocities, only the nationalist politicians.
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Unread post23 Oct 2021, 02:09

disconnectedradical wrote:
jessmo112 wrote:Have you seen the latest Japanese white paper? Do you realize that the Japanese still refuse to acknowledge some atrocious committed over 70 years ago?
They are pacifists now, but honor is very important in this part of the world. Do you really think if missiles start to rain down on Okinawa and other places they will suffer this dishonor? If Taiwan falls then what about all other disputed islands? The Chinese also claim, Okinawa, the senekus, Vladivostok, Guam, and If I'm not mistaken Hawaii.


You’re mistaken, China has never claimed Hawaii, I don’t know where you got that from.

China is using some of Japan’s politicians’ refusal to acknowledge atrocities for political points, which is worthless. Japan as a whole doesn’t deny the atrocities, only the nationalist politicians.


I'm sorry I was wrong on Hawaii, but correct on Okinawa.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/now-china ... s-in-japan
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tphuang

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Unread post23 Oct 2021, 15:26

I wouldn't take anything Gordon Chang says seriously. The guy has been predicting China would collapse for 20 years now (The Coming Collapse of China was written in 2001) and has never gotten anything right on that matter. But somehow, this guy still gets air time.

China's only real border dispute with Japan is Senkaku(or Diaoyu if you got Chinese name). It resolved all its border dispute with Russia 15 to 20 years ago, that's why they have good relationship now. Japan on the other hand does still have border disputes with all of its neighbors (Kuril with Russians, dokdo with Korea, Senkaku with both China and Taiwan)
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Unread post23 Oct 2021, 16:53

Japan ever renounce their ancestral claims to parts of China's mainland?
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Unread post23 Oct 2021, 18:24

jessmo112 wrote:I don't know, but I suspect that engine reliability will be a serious issue with the Chinese.
Even more so when depots and hangers are blown up.
The U.S. has the advantage of having its maintenance areas a world away. What's the life of a J-20 engine again? For China a war needs to end fast.


Chinese engines are based on Russian ones so Russia can provide everything they need to maintain them even if Chinese facilities are destroyed which is quite unlikely because Chinese do like to make underground bases and shelters and they are superb in masonry so I wouldn't be surprise they have dozen of NORAD like structures around China. And taking out them you need nukes, and then it is lose lose scenario.

Chinese engines of today (WS-10 to be precise) are quite good engines, they start using them for J-10 (single engine fighter), before they used Russian AL-31 because older WS-10 variant was not reliable but latest ones are quite reliable. In fact they have TVC variant tested on J-10 which say a lot about reliability of their engines.
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Unread post25 Oct 2021, 03:40

If the war happens in west pac, US maintenance facilities will indeed be half a world away. That's why setting up an F-35A maintenance/repair facility in Japan is such a good idea.

Replacement is not only about planes but pilots. If China loses its planes over Taiwan/Japan, they are more likely to lose pilots. If they lose planes over China, then it depends on the rate of ejections.

As the Russians point out, engine reliability becomes less of an issue in a hot war especially if the US are taking down planes quickly. PLANAF lost a J-10 over the weekend though.
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Unread post25 Oct 2021, 06:33

milosh wrote:
jessmo112 wrote:I don't know, but I suspect that engine reliability will be a serious issue with the Chinese.
Even more so when depots and hangers are blown up.
The U.S. has the advantage of having its maintenance areas a world away. What's the life of a J-20 engine again? For China a war needs to end fast.


Chinese engines are based on Russian ones so Russia can provide everything they need to maintain them even if Chinese facilities are destroyed which is quite unlikely because Chinese do like to make underground bases and shelters and they are superb in masonry so I wouldn't be surprise they have dozen of NORAD like structures around China. And taking out them you need nukes, and then it is lose lose scenario.

Chinese engines of today (WS-10 to be precise) are quite good engines, they start using them for J-10 (single engine fighter), before they used Russian AL-31 because older WS-10 variant was not reliable but latest ones are quite reliable. In fact they have TVC variant tested on J-10 which say a lot about reliability of their engines.



The WS-10 was based on the core of the CFM-56II. (US/French) Which, itself was based on the General Electric F101. That eventually was developed into the F110.

That said, it took China many many years to adequately develop it into a modern-day reliable turbofan.
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