Russia-Ukraine War 2022

[hornetfinn]

Yeah, I agree that it's most likely Magic 2 and I also think that it's well within the capabilities of the weapon to engage at such off-boresight angle.

I've also not seen any videos of Ukrainian Mirages being equipped with MICAs and it's possible that they don't have them or at least not many of them.

Thank you for the video, btw!

[spad_s.xiii]

It's fascinating how rapid development happens in war. New CRPA Antenna Found on Russian UMPB-5R Bomb
Such an introduction would typically take many years during peacetime.
- Should we not update the antenna on bomb X, to be more jamming resistant?
- Is that really necessary, it seems to work ok for now?
- How and what's the cost?
- That would take a lot of expensive testing
- We have many bomb X in storage and can't afford to upgrade them.
- We can maybe have a look at that for next generation.
- In 25 years time? *disappointed*

I wonder if "west" is able to being ahead of Russia in EW, both technically and operationally, if this war countinues a couple of more years?
Maybe I'm listening too much to concerned people within AOC. Old crows always wants more EMSO.

[hornetfinn]

While I generally agree that peacetime development is often rather stupid, I'd say that when it comes to things like CRPAs, West is way ahead of Russia in every way. Those things have been in development for over 30 years and they have developed immensely and there are a lot of products which are really good.

But there have been and probably still are a lot of bombs that have not been upgraded with newer antennas and receivers. I bet all currently produced bombs and missiles definitely have advanced CRPAs and receivers that are very capable against GNSS jamming and spoofing.

[aussiebloke]

One CEO of a Ukrainian EW company recently gave this viewpoint on Russian CRPA technology:

In terms of other developments, Kalinin explained that Russia had been observed developing highly sophisticated controlled radiation pattern antennas (CRPAs). These are a key component within many Russian guided munitions, including UMPK glide bombs and Shahed OWA UAVs…….

Kalinin highlighted the importance of this component: “If you talk about UMPK or if you talk about the Shaheds, 70% of the capabilities is built on top of this CRPA system.” He added, “So this is the reason why Shaheds could orient on the enemy territory; this is the basically [the] main technology.”

According to Kalinin, much of CRPAs’ value is due to the fact that they are much cheaper compared to a high-end inertial navigation system (INS), while also being much more accurate. This allows Russia to keep mass-producing relatively low-cost but accurate munitions to strike targets in Ukraine even in the face of heavy jamming and spoofing. While various models have been in use throughout the war, more recent versions of Russia’s Kometa-M-VT design, developed by VNIIIR Progress, have been proving especially effective. Kalinin was notably impressed by the performance of these newer CRPA models: “I believe right now Russia is [the] top one country which [is] producing CRPA… I mean this CRPA is [a] piece of engineering art, they are really good…we don’t have in Ukraine any net or system between which could be compared to the efficiency [of] that system, so that’s disturbing.”

https://euro-sd.com/wp-content/uploads/ ... 25_WEB.pdf

[spad_s.xiii]

While I generally agree that peacetime development is often rather stupid, I'd say that when it comes to things like CRPAs, West is way ahead of Russia in every way. Those things have been in development for over 30 years and they have developed immensely and there are a lot of products which are really good.

Well, although the russians do have their problems at the battle field, to say the least, I wouldn't write them off when it comes to EMSO. Even if development of CRPAs has been going on for 30, or I'd say 40, years, it's not like the Russian engineers haven't been developing anything during this time. One big advantage they have is being able to test in the worst possible environment and step by step see what works and what could be produced to a low cost. You could test in a lab and exercises, but you never truly know what actually works in a war like in Ukraine.
Pyotr Ufimtsev isn't the only Russian who knows about Maxwell.

[ricnunes]

An Ukrainian unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) engages a Russian MT-LB troop carrier that happened upon their location.
The Ukrainians were (reportedly) testing their bot close to the forward line when it encountered the Russian vehicle.

Watch video here: https://twitter.com/Funker530/status/19948757 ... dac6A&s=08

[hornetfinn]

While I generally agree that peacetime development is often rather stupid, I'd say that when it comes to things like CRPAs, West is way ahead of Russia in every way. Those things have been in development for over 30 years and they have developed immensely and there are a lot of products which are really good.

Well, although the russians do have their problems at the battle field, to say the least, I wouldn't write them off when it comes to EMSO. Even if development of CRPAs has been going on for 30, or I'd say 40, years, it's not like the Russian engineers haven't been developing anything during this time. One big advantage they have is being able to test in the worst possible environment and step by step see what works and what could be produced to a low cost. You could test in a lab and exercises, but you never truly know what actually works in a war like in Ukraine.
Pyotr Ufimtsev isn't the only Russian who knows about Maxwell.

Well, a lot of Western kit is also tested in Ukraine like SDBs, AASM Hammer, Storm Shadow/Scalp EG, GMLRS, ATACMS, HARMs, drones etc. So Western companies and military services are also learning a lot from this war and developing both technologies and tactics. One clear area of development has been EW systems and also countering EW effects with CRPAs, GNSS receivers, iNS and associated software. RIght now Russian EW has not been that effective against Western weapons anymore or Ukrainian long-range attack drones which have successfully attacked some very important military targets which likely have been protected with extensive GPS/GNSS jammers.

I do agree however that Russia is not to be underestimated when it comes to EW but their developments have mainly focused on GPS/GNSS jamming/spoofing and jamming single-channel drone command links or countering the effects of Ukrainain GNSS jamming and drone command links. They have some radar jamming capabilities but these have not proven to be effective at all against current Ukrainian Western-supplied radars. Same thing for communications jamming, They have capable systems in some narrow technology areas (GPS jamming and drone command/video links) and not much in others

Currently Western countries definitely have a clear edge in:
- Stand-off radar jamming equipment (ALQ-99, NGJ, Arexis, Hensoldt Kalaetron, several Israeli systems)
- Advanced self-protection radar jammers with GaN technology, DRFM tech, towed decoys, expendable active decoys (like Britecloud)
- Radar ECCM/anti-jamming technology with AESA radars also with GaN tech and digital beamforming being very LPI/LPD
- Communications systems with advanced data links and jam-resistant voice comms
- Anti-radiation missiles (AARGM-ER,SiAW)
- 5th gen aircraft being able to get close to locate and also use EW/EA against the enemy radars
- EW drones, meaning MALD-J/X and Spear-EW
- Use of AI and ML for EW

Some of these are systems that Russia doesn't have anything comparable. Many of these are not even used by Ukraine and Russia has not been very successful in EW outside of GPS jamming and countering single-channel FPV drone frequencies. Sure they might have some nasty surprises that they haven't shown but even then as a whole, they are nowhere near NATO/Western countries when it comes to EW. Russian large and powerful jamming systems would likely eat some AARGM-ERs and/or be wiped out with glide bombs launched from F-35s if they ever decided to go against NATO in real war. Ukraine doesn't have the requisite means to do that and these systems have been somewhat effective and evolving. Of course against NATO their own glide bombs or attack drones would not be nearly as effective as NATO has the capabilities to take out the launchers and the production sites. Sure that would take some time and they would likely manage to launch drones successfully but their effect would rather limited.

[disconnectedradical]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/19 ... 22538?s=20

Ukrainian F-16 armed with what appears to be rocket pods, likely indicating use of APKWS. Also perhaps a Sniper pod mounted as well. This would greatly help against drones, much greater magazine depth.

[hornetfinn]

APKWS and Sniper pod would help a lot in countering drones. Of course APKWS needs the Sniper or similar pod to provide laser designation and it would likely also improve the capabilities to target the drones as well. Hopefully they get all their F-16s armed with this combination. Having 14 APKWS along with air-to-air missiles would help a lot.

Btw, it seems like jet powered Gerans/Shaheds are now reality:

From here: https://x.com/sternenko/status/1997255308776026524

[darkmount]

APKWS and Sniper pod would help a lot in countering drones. Of course APKWS needs the Sniper or similar pod to provide laser designation and it would likely also improve the capabilities to target the drones as well. Hopefully they get all their F-16s armed with this combination. Having 14 APKWS along with air-to-air missiles would help a lot.

Could be way more than 14 APKWS btw, I've seen F-16 carrying 6 APKWS pods attached to two tri pylons with 42 interceptors in total.

[not_kent]

The US has reversed engineered the Iranian Shahed drones and is prepared to use them in the Middle East, of course a new acronym (LUCAS) was invented for them. They are produced by SpektreWorks, https://spektreworks.com/sapphire/. Looks like a small company, they don't list it as one of their products but a picture labeled Flight Services shows testing by attaching one to a pickup truck and driving it around. Does not seem to be a publicly traded company.

https://www.defensenews.com/unmanned/20 ... ddle-east/

A newly formed task force based in the Middle East is now equipped and ready to deploy one-way attack drones, U.S. Central Command has announced.

The unit is already equipped with a squadron of Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System drones, known as LUCAS drones. With a robust, simple design, LUCAS drones have a wingspan of about 8 feet and can be used flexibly as munitions.

Designed by U.S.-based SpektreWorks, they bear similarities to Iran’s Shahed-136 drones and can maneuver in swarms.

The LUCAS drones are a product of a damaged Shahed drone that was captured several years ago. A U.S. defense official recently told CNN that developers were able to reverse-engineer the Iranian weapon to create the LUCAS.

Edit - There is this under their products page for, its called "FLM 136" and there are downloadable specs.
Reverse-engineered for authentic threat emulation. With a professional airframe, broad performance capabilities, and multiple launch options, it offers unparalleled mission versatility. Its large payload capacity, drop-in module compatibility, and multiple auxiliary bays ensure ongoing compatibility to meet your evolving needs.

[hornetfinn]

Funny how things go. Iranian Shahed drones are very similar to 1980's German Dornier’s DAR (Die Drohne Antiradar) and South African Kentron ARD-10 Lark, neither one which became operational but were almost identical to Shahed in shape, warhead and engine. Israeli IAI Harop and Harpy are also very similar. Actually those were more advanced as they had anti-radiation and electro-optical day/night seekers but that also meant significantly shorter range. The innovation with Shahed is really the simplicity and carrying just the warhead and small GPS receiver and simple electronics to guide the thing to GPS coordinates. This makes it very cheap but not very flexible weapon.

I bet this LUCAS thing might look similar superficially but i bet they are quite a bit more polished and flexible. For example that drop-in module compatibility sound good as it will allow much more flexibility and different capabilities to be implemented.

[darkmount]

Numbers of strikes on oil refineries seem to have dropped a lot recently.

This has been a recognisable pattern where Ukraine accumulates thousands of drones for daily strikes and it usually lasted several weeks before a significant drop.

I always reiterated that the current scale of strikes isn't enough to "collapse" the Russian economy, which is always the main talking point when high intensity strikes occur.

This is another example of the West doing just enough to disrupt rather than destroy the Russian war machines, but they don't have to do more if they keep convincing their audience that Ukraine is winning, and unfortunately some people believe them.

[aussiebloke]

Numbers of strikes on oil refineries seem to have dropped a lot recently.

A recent article from Bloomberg suggests that there has been no drop.

Ukraine carried out record attacks on strategic oil infrastructure in Russia last month as the US attempts to broker a peace deal to end the near four-year war.
Ukraine’s military used drones to attack Russian refineries at least 14 times in November, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from public statements by both nations.
That all-time high coincides with four attacks on Black Sea oil-loading facilities last month, as well as on explosions on tankers moving Moscow’s oil.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... astructure
or
https://archive.ph/S92mG

[ricnunes]

For the first time, Ukrainian Air Force F-16s are equipped with Sniper/PANTERA Targeting Pods, allowing the Falcons to use laser-guided weapons. The pods initially appear to support the use of APKWS rockets for drone hunting, but also give Ukrainian F-16s a powerful new sensor.

Source: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/199 ... tVYLg&s=08