Russia-Ukraine War 2022

[darkmount]

Trump now allows Ukraine to use American weapons for deep strikes inside Russia!

And just yesterday, Ukraine used HIMARS to hit the Belgorod thermal power plant which caused widespread blackouts.

Btw, Ukraine never hit energy facilities with western made weapons under the previous administration, so as a consequence, Russia felt very comfortable smacking Ukraine's power grid which resulted in Ukraine losing half of it's generation capacity last year.



Now hopefully with this move, the upcoming ERAM missiles will be much more effective and AFAIK the first batch should arrive next month.

[aussiebloke]

Trump now allows Ukraine to use American weapons for deep strikes inside Russia!

It isn’t a blanket approval of any and all long range strikes using U.S. weapons. According to Keith Kellogg, Trump’s Special Envoy to Ukraine, Trump will approve strikes on a case by case basis it would appear.

In response to a follow-up question on whether Ukrainian forces have permission to use US-supplied weapons in this way, he said: "It's mixed."
"Sometimes they get some of the authority, sometimes they don't.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/09/29/8000324/

[darkmount]

Trump now allows Ukraine to use American weapons for deep strikes inside Russia!

It isn’t a blanket approval of any and all long range strikes using U.S. weapons. According to Keith Kellogg, Trump’s Special Envoy to Ukraine, Trump will approve strikes on a case by case basis it would appear.

In response to a follow-up question on whether Ukrainian forces have permission to use US-supplied weapons in this way, he said: "It's mixed."
"Sometimes they get some of the authority, sometimes they don't.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/09/29/8000324/

That's still better than the previous admin.

Under the previous admin they were allowed to strike inside Russia "only" when Russia was building up forces, and this was only limited to Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod.

[hornetfinn]

Direct consequence of this war:

Estonia going to do a 10-fold increase in their HIMARS/GMLRS/ATACMS deal:
https://www.congress.gov/congressional-record/volume-171/issue-159/senate-section/article/S6826-1

Description: On July 15, 2022, Congress was notified by congressional certification transmittal number 22-35, of the possible sale under Section 36(b)(1) of the Arms Export Control Act, of six (6) M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) Launchers; thirty-six (36) M30A2 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) Alternative Warhead (AW) Missile Pods with Insensitive Munitions Propulsion System (IMPS) and Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave--Directional Doppler Ranging (FMCW-DDR) Proximity Height-of-Burst (HOB) Sensor Capability; thirty-six (36) M31A2 GMLRS Unitary High Explosive (HE) Missile Pods with IMPS and FMCW-DDR Proximity HOB Sensor Capability; thirty-six (36) XM403 Extended Range GMLRS (ER GMLRS) Alternative Warhead (AW) Missile Pods with IMPS and Side Mounted Proximity Sensor (SMPS) HOB Capability; thirty-six (36) XM404 ER GMLRS Unitary Pods with IMPS and SMPS HOB Capability; and eighteen (18) M57 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) Missile Pods. Also included were M28A2 Low Cost Reduced Range Practice Rocket (LCRRPR) pods; ruggedized laptops; training equipment; publications for HIMARS and munitions/missiles; and other related elements of program and logistics support. The total estimated cost was $500 million. Major Defense Equipment (MDE) constituted $455 million of this total.

This transmittal notifies the inclusion of the following additional MDE items: six (6) M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS); two hundred fifty (250) M31A2 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) Unitary Alternative Warhead (AW), unitary High Explosive missile pods with Insensitive Munition Propulsion System (IMPS) capability; two hundred fifty (250) M30A2 GMLRS AW missile pods with IMPS; two hundred fifty (250) XM403 Extended Range (ER) GMLRS AW missile pods with IMPS and Side Mounted Proximity Sensor (SMPS) Height-of-Burst (HOB) capability; two hundred fifty (250) XM404 ER GMLRS Unitary pods with IMPS and SMPS HOB capability; and two hundred (200) M57 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS). The following non-MDE items are also included: M282 Low Cost Reduced Range Practice Rocket (LCRRPR) pods; communications equipment; publications for HIMARS and munitions/missiles; and other related elements of program and logistics support. The estimated total value of the new items is $4.23 billion. The estimated non-MDE value will increase by $125 million to a revised $170 million. The estimated total case value will increase by $4.23 billion to a revised $4.73 billion. MDE constitutes $4.56 billion of this total.

Overall they will buy 12 HIMARS launchers, 200 ATACMS and 1184 GMLRS rocket pods (almost 7,000 rockets). That's some serious firepower for a tiny country like Estonia. They are extremely serious with their defence now and of course they are also getting more artillery systems, armored vehicles, anti-tank systems and anti-aircraft systems.

[weasel1962]

Another important decision is the withdrawal from the landmines treaty.

Estonia has a much smaller land frontage facing Russia compared to Latvia. Considering the poor showing Russia had in dealing with mines and fortifications, well placed minefields coupled with smart use of MRLs could be sufficient to deter a Russian misadventure.

Himars can have a role deterring water crossings (esp Lake peipus). Its a smart buy.

[hornetfinn]

It definitely is a smart buy. There are also a lot of Russian military infrastructure (airbases, naval ports, depots etc) within reach especially with ATACMS.

Another thing is that Baltic states are restoring their wetlands to natural state to further make it more difficult to move mechanized forces. This, in combination with mines and anti-tank systems, having a strong artillery branch is going to make it very difficult for Russia to invade. All of these would buy time for other NATO countries to come to help which will definitely deter Russia from even trying.

[hornetfinn]

Nice picture:

A Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 launching an AGM-88 HARM missile. These US-supplied anti-radiation missiles are used to target and destroy radar systems.

Sources: https://twitter.com/PolymarketIntel/status/19 ... 1323872341 and https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.co ... cbd2h7ws2v

[Corsair1963]

Overall they will buy 12 HIMARS launchers, 200 ATACMS and 1184 GMLRS rocket pods (almost 7,000 rockets). That's some serious firepower for a tiny country like Estonia. They are extremely serious with their defence now and of course they are also getting more artillery systems, armored vehicles, anti-tank systems and anti-aircraft systems.

Perfect example of "deterrents"

[ricnunes]

Soldiers of Ukraine’s 92nd Brigade used Baba-Yaga heavy bomber drones to level a building occupied by Russian forces as a strongpoint, then followed up with 30mm cannon fire from a Ukrainian BTR-4E to finish the job.

Source and video: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/197995 ... 86bJw&s=08

[disconnectedradical]

It is amazing how easily Trump can be blackmailed by Putin. One phone call with Putin, and he changes his mind.

https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-urg ... 025-10-19/

U.S. President Donald Trump pushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to give up swaths of territory to Russia during a tense meeting on Friday that left the Ukrainian delegation disappointed, according to two people briefed on the discussion.

Trump also declined to provide Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine's use, and mused about giving security guarantees to both Kyiv and Moscow, comments that the Ukrainian delegation found confusing, added the two sources, who requested anonymity to discuss a private conversation.
...
Two sources had the impression that Trump was influenced by a Thursday call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. During that call, according to The Washington Post, Putin proposed a territorial swap in which Ukraine would cede the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in return for small parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

One of the sources said that U.S. officials proposed precisely that swap to Zelenskiy on Friday.

Ukrainians see major strategic value in the portion of Donetsk and Luhansk that they still hold — they believe giving up that territory would make the rest of Ukraine much more vulnerable to Russian offensives, said one of the people briefed about the meeting. That source argued that giving up western Donetsk and Luhansk would amount to an act of "suicide."

[ricnunes]

This came a bit of a surprise to me:

The American aircraft manufacturing company Bell Textron is ready to supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine with its AH-1Z Viper and UH-1Y Venom helicopters. Sources:
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/19 ... ldZYA&s=08
and:
https://militarnyi.com/uk/news/amerykan ... z-i-uh-1y/

[mor10]

Sweden and Ukraine have signed a letter of intent for the purchase of up to 150 Gripen fighter jets.

This is a long-term defense cooperation, not donation.
The goal: build a strong Ukrainian Air Force over the next 10–15 years.

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/14M7851EVzm/

[hornetfinn]

That's a huge deal for both countries and it seems to be going forward but of course it's still a MoU and not a done deal. Besides, it's a long term project and will not affect anything in the short term.

https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-sweden-to-make-defense-export-announcement/

The two leaders met in the city of Linkoping, home to the defense company Saab, which produces Gripen fighter jets and other arms. There, they signed a letter of intent for long-term defense cooperation between their countries.

While the memorandum is not aimed at any immediate new donations, it includes a possibility for a major deal between Saab and Ukraine involving 100-150 Gripen E fighter jets, Kristersson clarified.

"This is the start of a long journey of 10-15 years," the Swedish prime minister said in front of a parked Gripen E fighter jet.

"We understand who we are fighting against, and Gripen is one of the best (fighters) in the world," Zelensky said, noting that Ukrainian pilots have already begun training on the Swedish planes.

I wonder if any other manufacturer has actually tried to sell their aircraft to Ukraine... Mainly Dassault or Eurofighter GmbH.

[ricnunes]

...but of course it's still a MoU and not a done deal. Besides, it's a long term project and will not affect anything in the short term.

Exactly!
And if I'm not mistaken, it's not the first time that something like this was announced, just like the "Ukrainian pilots training in Gripens"...

While the memorandum is not aimed at any immediate new donations, it includes a possibility for a major deal between Saab and Ukraine involving 100-150 Gripen E fighter jets, Kristersson clarified.

Something tells me that once Ukraine realizes that Brazil is also behind the Gripen E that they (Ukrainians) will run away from the Gripen E just like the Devil runs from the Cross.

I wonder if any other manufacturer has actually tried to sell their aircraft to Ukraine... Mainly Dassault or Eurofighter GmbH.

I think everyone (except Saab, it seems) realises that whatever Ukraine needs, it needs right now! Ukraine is in NO position to plan what it will do or what will buy military wise (like actual military contracts) after the war since nobody knows when the war will end and above, nobody knows how it will end up.

So, this looks to be another "smoke and mirrors" and "marketing" BS stuff from Saab, as usual...

[hornetfinn]

I wonder if any other manufacturer has actually tried to sell their aircraft to Ukraine... Mainly Dassault or Eurofighter GmbH.

I think everyone (except Saab, it seems) realises that whatever Ukraine needs, it needs right now! Ukraine is in NO position to plan what it will do or what will buy military wise (like actual military contracts) after the war since nobody knows when the war will end and above, nobody knows how it will end up.

So, this looks to be another "smoke and mirrors" and "marketing" BS stuff from Saab, as usual...

Actually here I'm going to disagree with you (for once) about Ukraine planning long-term equipment purchases. Yes, they definitely need all they can get right now but problem with fighter aircraft and other similar big ticket items is that they take years to acquire. Currently their Soviet era fleet is clearly very old and definitely worn out too. I'm very impressed that they can still fly them! Their F-16s and Mirage 2000s are about as old as well and despite being in decent condition, will also wear out in this war. So if the war ends after say 3 or 4 years, those F-16s and Mirages are likely going to be very worn out too. If they wait until then to start thinking about acquiring new equipment, there will be several year's gap before they can get them which would be very risky time too because of Russia. It might also be that financing them could become much more difficult after the war because then there would be "peace". Of course either way is going to be a gamble as the war is going on.

My theory is that this might be some kind of common plan to sell Gripens to Ukraine so that they can get new fighter aircraft at some point. Another thing is that selling Gripen instead of Rafale, Eurofighter or new F-16s might be that those other aircraft are made by nuclear powers which they might want to avoid if they can. That's my impression and it might also be totally wrong. Of course Rafale and Eurofighter are also rather expensive to buy and operate, although Gripen E is not that cheap either.

I think this is far more than just Saab BS as Swedish leaders and Zelenskyy made it so big event: