SU-57: On hold for a decade

Military aircraft - Post cold war aircraft, including for example B-2, Gripen, F-18E/F Super Hornet, Rafale, and Typhoon.
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XanderCrews

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Unread post01 Aug 2018, 14:50

project458 wrote:

Overnight? There is full decade gap between AL-31 and Saturn AL-41F1S, and when it comes engine tech Russia has significantly closed the gap with the West, with izdeliye 30 they will mach the US and surpass everyone else,


Oh?
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element1loop

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Unread post01 Aug 2018, 16:57

In 2010, just 5 seconds looking at the cockpit of most MiG29s and Su27s would make clear why those machines were never going to dominate 1980s western types. Finally rebuilding them and putting integrated 4th-gen systems into them was such a radically transformative upgrade that the Russians had the cheek to even re-designate them. But most people casually looking at a fresh Su27, and an Su35, parked side by side, would not notice much difference.

At the same time as their SA finally went up, VLO arrived, and their SA collapsed again. And it isn't coming back.

Buggah!
Accel + Alt + VLO + DAS + MDF + Radial Distance = LIFE . . . Always choose Stealth
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icemaverick

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Unread post01 Aug 2018, 18:58

project458 wrote:Overnight? There is full decade gap between AL-31 and Saturn AL-41F1S, and when it comes engine tech Russia has significantly closed the gap with the West, with izdeliye 30 they will mach the US and surpass everyone else,


10 years is a pretty short time when it comes to jet engine tech. The two engines aren't even all that different. One is simply an evolutionary change over the other. It's highly doubtful that they made such a drastic improvement.

You are extremely optimistic about Russian engine technology. If Russian engines are so great, how come nobody is using Russian jets on their civilian aircraft? Even Sukhoi is partnering with a French company to build the engines that power the Sukhoi Superjet. China is buying Russian engines for its fighters because they don't have access to Western engines. And we all know China will simply reverse engineer the Russian engines and steal the tech for its own engine programs.

India, which has plenty of experience with Russian engines chooses to pay for American engines to power its Tejas fighter. They also opted to spend a lot of money to buy Rafales even though they have plenty of experience with the Su-30MKI.
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madrat

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Unread post02 Aug 2018, 03:01

India should have been working on an MKI-offshoot with Western engine options.

Then again, they could have just as easily bought western fighters.
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mixelflick

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Unread post02 Aug 2018, 15:27

That "SU-27 nearly crashes into a soldier" video didn't seem to be due to any engine issue(s).

It was however, an excellent example of irresponsible airmanship the Russians occasionally practice. There are a whole bunch of people who think this "ultra low pass" nonsense is some kind of badge of honor. Allegedly, Russian pilots pride themselves on this kind of stuff. 'll say it again, because it bears repeating - irresponsible airmanship.

I'd love to know what our fighter pilots think...
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XanderCrews

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Unread post02 Aug 2018, 15:36

icemaverick wrote:
project458 wrote:Overnight? There is full decade gap between AL-31 and Saturn AL-41F1S, and when it comes engine tech Russia has significantly closed the gap with the West, with izdeliye 30 they will mach the US and surpass everyone else,


10 years is a pretty short time when it comes to jet engine tech. The two engines aren't even all that different. One is simply an evolutionary change over the other. It's highly doubtful that they made such a drastic improvement.

You are extremely optimistic about Russian engine technology. If Russian engines are so great, how come nobody is using Russian jets on their civilian aircraft? Even Sukhoi is partnering with a French company to build the engines that power the Sukhoi Superjet. China is buying Russian engines for its fighters because they don't have access to Western engines. And we all know China will simply reverse engineer the Russian engines and steal the tech for its own engine programs.

India, which has plenty of experience with Russian engines chooses to pay for American engines to power its Tejas fighter. They also opted to spend a lot of money to buy Rafales even though they have plenty of experience with the Su-30MKI.


I'm still waiting for more evidence than the constant bold claims that as always, they're just "a few more years" away from total parity with the west. Where the Russian hide their silicon valley and western quality advanced engines after decades of development at the cost f billions I have no idea. Theyre all over Russia I guess. I bet if you go to the east they say these super factories are in the west, if you go to the west, they say theyre in the east. No one knows where they are and theres no evidence or proof. But trust us theyre there! This is Russia. We all know how highly advanced, technological, bribe free, and well run this capitalist oasis is.

As always with this subject its a Parity Parody HAHA

AnY DaY NoW!


I'm sure we are just 6 months away from the real life Firefox being rolled out with 6th Gen engines, and AI to boot.
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XanderCrews

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Unread post02 Aug 2018, 15:38

mixelflick wrote:That "SU-27 nearly crashes into a soldier" video didn't seem to be due to any engine issue(s).

It was however, an excellent example of irresponsible airmanship the Russians occasionally practice. There are a whole bunch of people who think this "ultra low pass" nonsense is some kind of badge of honor. Allegedly, Russian pilots pride themselves on this kind of stuff. 'll say it again, because it bears repeating - irresponsible airmanship.

I'd love to know what our fighter pilots think...



Ukrainian. But Safety east of the Iron Curtain is still "relative" in a lot places.
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XanderCrews

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Unread post02 Aug 2018, 15:43

Corsair1963 wrote:If, I had a dollar for every Russia prediction that they got wrong. I could have retired 20 years ago......... :?



With a pool and a Lamborghini too.

knowan wrote:I'm always amused by people taking Russian claims at face value.

And lol at a UAV being counted as a 'kill'. What's next, counting MH17 as a 'kill' for the Buk for the purpose of claiming weapon effectiveness?



Kinda desperate isn't it? And give them time on MH17. It will happen. Fanboys will gladly take shooting down an airliner to try and be right on the internet.
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mixelflick

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Unread post04 Aug 2018, 14:26

lrrpf52 wrote:
mixelflick wrote:That "SU-27 nearly crashes into a soldier" video didn't seem to be due to any engine issue(s).

It was however, an excellent example of irresponsible airmanship the Russians occasionally practice. There are a whole bunch of people who think this "ultra low pass" nonsense is some kind of badge of honor. Allegedly, Russian pilots pride themselves on this kind of stuff. 'll say it again, because it bears repeating - irresponsible airmanship.

I'd love to know what our fighter pilots think...

Watch it again and look at which motor is producing smoke. The starboard engine. Notice how there is no smoke coming from the port engine. Which wing dipped because the aircraft wasn't making normal rate of ascent and had asymmetric force on the airframe? The port wing dipped, almost stalled.

That Su-27 almost contacted the ground. You don't do that on take-off with your wingman, Slav recklessness aside. That was a near disaster due to a port engine failure. Their engines are garbage.

Then the next video shows their pride and joy Su-57 wonder jet flaming out at MAKS for all to see, followed by emergency procedures shut down and drogue delivery.


OK I get your point. But are we not cherry picking examples here? We could for example cite the example of the F-35 engine fire a few years back. Having said that, there's little doubt American/western engines are far more reliable than their Russian counterparts. What's intriguing to me is that in an effort to match performance, their thrust levels are similar (up until the F-119/F-135). So their Flankers for example... some of them put out near/a little more than 30,000lbs of thrust. But they don't last long before breaking, and even if they don't break TBO is much shorter.

It makes you wonder how the Chinese will fight a war. Will they follow the former Soviet model? You know, fly until it breaks, throw it away and pump out another airframe? I don't think you can do that anymore given late model Flankers and J-10c's don't exactly flow from the factory like Mig-21's used to. And that situation is going to get a whole lot worse given J-20's and J/C-31's. Any good engine is going to cost a lot of $, so simply stocking up on them isn't a feasible idea either.

At some point they're going to have to build them to last. And its questionable whether they can have 1.) thrust/power AND 2.) competitive TBO's comparable with western engines. The more I think about it, the more it may be their true achilles heel..
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icemaverick

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Unread post04 Aug 2018, 16:49

You could talk about the F-35 engine fire but how many flights hours has the F-35 logged vs. the Su-57? No jet engine will be completely flawless. Failures will occur but what matters is the rate of failure.
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mixelflick

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Unread post09 Aug 2018, 16:04

I'd suggest that the parity was a lot closer than originally thought with the Russians, I'm talking late 80's, early 90's. Airframe wise, their Mig-29's and SU-27's were close. In the SU-27's case, very close to the F-15 and in some parts of the envelope, better. In some areas they held an unquestionable lead - the Archer. We had much better avionics, engines and probably pilots - but that was as close as it ever got. Then you had the collapse of the Soviet Union, and they got set back a decade, maybe two..

I just hate to see a potential enemy under-estimated. The Russians are tough, resourceful people. Their designs may come up short in some areas, but are strong in others. Had they been able to stay solvent, it really makes you wonder what kind of aircraft they'd be flying today. Sure, the Mig-25 was crude and in some cases found wanting. But remember - the Foxbat put up tremendous fights against Eagles and in at least one case, outran MANY pursuing Eagles and their Sparrows. And I'm not talking one or two... many sparrows fired and many F-15's vectored to intercept them. As it stands, the Mig-25 downed an F/A-18, and it was designed an entire generation before. Just imagine if the Iraqi's had Mig-31's. We might be sitting here today discussing how it did against our F-14's or 15's.

But I'm with you on where we (and they) are today. They're in a real pickle because they bet the farm on WVR dogfights, the fact their S-300/400 can down stealth aircraft etc.. If the future sees the F-35 or 22 downing SU-30SM's and SU-35's, the whole world is going to be knocking on LM's door for the F-35. Or China's if they ever get the FC-31 in gear.

We are at a crossroads, and for my money they've been beat. But we shall see. I tend to think Israel is going to shock the world with what she does with her F-35's. It is only a matter of when, not if they strike the Iranians...
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Unread post10 Aug 2018, 14:11

OK.... what's your assessment of China then?

Through espionage and other means, they've come up with some pretty slick designs - like the J-10C. They're building plenty of them, and its comparable to an F-16 (pick your block #). They have plenty of Flankers too, including the latest and greatest SU-35. The J-20 is still somewhat of a wild card, but its clearly going to be something we have to deal with sooner or later.

They've built a pretty slick hi/low mix IMO, and their air to air weapons seem to really be coming along. I'm not sure what their pilot training is like, but certainly it's not good to under-estimate them. They seem to be succeeding where the Russians are failing - building a pretty robust air to air and air to ground capability. Granted, long way to go in the air to air refueling, AWACS dept, but they no doubt know that's a weakness too.

The F-35 has a lot riding on its shoulders, but it sounds like its up to the task. If it's that good. If it's built in the kind of numbers we need. If it doesn't bankrupt us, it'll forever be known as the plane that broke Russia's back, and perhaps even China's too. That's just how I see it. I forsee a few hundred J-20's produced but the J/C-31 or whatever having issues. Big issues, that'll result in it not being mass produced for perhaps another decade..
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disconnectedradical

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Unread post10 Aug 2018, 20:04

I'm all for realistic assessment of capabilities but dismissing Russian and Chinese cultures as failures seem too far. :|
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Unread post10 Aug 2018, 23:52

Has any country ever achieved military greatness without first undergoing a major trial by fire against a superior combat-proven adversary and emerge victorious at the first attempt?
"When a fifth-generation fighter meets a fourth-generation fighter—the [latter] dies,”
CSAF Gen. Mark Welsh
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vilters

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Unread post11 Aug 2018, 00:19

The best Russia can do is melt them down and start over. The PAK-FA "as is" is an Joke for Russia industry.
Get over it. OK, you'v got your LEVCON data, now start building an aircraft.
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