Russian A2/AD Bubble not as inpenetrable as thought

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mixelflick

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Unread post12 Mar 2019, 12:24

The point about Turkey already having access to US/F-35 tech and sharing it with the Russians to make the S-400 an F-35 killer...

OK, maybe. But if someone at LM didn't see that coming and took steps to prevent that from happening - shame on them. It was known far and wide this aircraft would be exported, and everything from the Turkey situation to a defection should have been taken into consideration.

Frankly, I'd be shocked if either of those scenarios (and more) haven't been taken into account. There must be some way of protecting the F-35's secret sauce. US air superiority and indeed entire future air campaigns hinge on it.
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sferrin

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Unread post12 Mar 2019, 12:40

mixelflick wrote:The point about Turkey already having access to US/F-35 tech and sharing it with the Russians to make the S-400 an F-35 killer...

OK, maybe. But if someone at LM didn't see that coming and took steps to prevent that from happening - shame on them.


Can you say, "data breach"? I knew you could. When it comes to security and the F-35 the safest bet is to assume it's run by the Keystone Cops. That's about the only way one could account for the rampant theft of F-35 data.
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tomcooper

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Unread post14 Mar 2019, 10:31

hornetfinn wrote:I agree. Integration of such systems is very possible and has been done in Finland for example. We had 9K37M1 Buk-M1 (SA-11) and F/A-18 Hornets used at the same time (about 2 decades) and integrating the two was not much of a problem. It's just a matter of making some suitable hardware and software.
Actually, it's much more complex.

Alone the modern-day Russian-made hardware and software isn't compatible with 20+ years old Soviet/Russian stuff any more (indeed: not even with ATMS' made to make multiple diverse systems compatible with each other!). Especially not when it comes to IFF. And the Russians aren't the least stupid to share their crypto with anybody at all (even less so with a country that's still a NATO-member).

But integrating is still not that difficult, although it's also not a small task either especially with such powerful systems.
It's not the least 'easy', that much is sure.

Sufficient to say: yes, Turkey might be an exception, but until today the majority of customers for Russian arms do not even have the capability to write/program their own IFF-codes. And that's just the start of the story. Even once the necessary software is written and proven to function, it still requires compatibility with all the elements of the system (i.e. all the software on diverse radars, SAM-systems, aircraft etc.). And that is an entirely different pair of shoes than enabling simultaneous operation of F/A-18Cs and SA-11s within the same piece of airspace.

...so much so, 'that' issue with the IFF was the principal reasons why the Assadists blasted that Russian Il-20M all the way to Mars, last autumn..
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milosh

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Unread post15 Mar 2019, 10:06

element1loop wrote:
fidgetspinner wrote:Lots of talks about producing more iskander, zircon, kinzhal missiles which can be used to attack air defenses and even air bases.


Iskander is just a theatre ballistic missile.
Kinzhal is just an Iskander with more range.

Both still have to re-enter the thicker parts of the atmosphere where they will ALWAYS slow down to <Mach 2.0 as they approach a ground target. Those can be shot down with existing SAMs right now, so that's no real solution. Hence 'new-baloney' about the super-duper 'Zircon', that's TASS/RT/Sputnik vaporware. Brace to be ZirCON spammed for the next 12 months or so.


I am not sure but I think Pershing-2 and Oka had much higher terminal speeds. And speed isn't everything modern SAM can engage very fast warheads what is more important is maneuvering. Iskander is similar size as Oka but have smaller range and speed because it doesn't have ideal ballistic path because it change its path during boost phase and some sources mentioned warhead is marv so warhead is heavier then Oka warhead.

Kinzal is air launched Iskander and as it look like it will not be for long operational it is stop gap until Zircon is ready, while Zircon is slower, Tu-22 could carry more Zircons and have decent range. Carrying four Kinzal will impacted Tu-22 range a lot it would be worse then with three Kh-22/32 which Tu-22 almost never carry (it carry only two).

Also there is possibility Tu-22 will carry shorter (small buster) Zircon in weapon bay so after launch external carried ones it could speed up and then launch six shorter owns. Something like that is impossible with Kindzal because it is classic balistic missile not ramjet/scramjet missile.

@all

Buying S-400 is logical. Turks doesn't need S-400 for AA role but for ABM role. Only country with which they have problems is Israel and Israel have medium range ballistic missiles agianst which Turkey doesn't have answer. Buying PAC-3 would be stupid, Israel we can say own US so Turks would find hard way they spent billions on system which Israel can turn with pressure of button. That is why Turkey wanted to be allow to check and modify PAC-3 and when US said no they decide to buy Chinese HQ-9 because they weren't good with Russia back then. But NATO (read USA) put pressure and Turkey canceled HQ-9, then potential CIA coupe failed (some say thanks to KGB info) and of course Erdo will buy S-400 after that.
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hornetfinn

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Unread post15 Mar 2019, 14:19

tomcooper wrote:
hornetfinn wrote:I agree. Integration of such systems is very possible and has been done in Finland for example. We had 9K37M1 Buk-M1 (SA-11) and F/A-18 Hornets used at the same time (about 2 decades) and integrating the two was not much of a problem. It's just a matter of making some suitable hardware and software.
Actually, it's much more complex.

Alone the modern-day Russian-made hardware and software isn't compatible with 20+ years old Soviet/Russian stuff any more (indeed: not even with ATMS' made to make multiple diverse systems compatible with each other!). Especially not when it comes to IFF. And the Russians aren't the least stupid to share their crypto with anybody at all (even less so with a country that's still a NATO-member).

But integrating is still not that difficult, although it's also not a small task either especially with such powerful systems.
It's not the least 'easy', that much is sure.

Sufficient to say: yes, Turkey might be an exception, but until today the majority of customers for Russian arms do not even have the capability to write/program their own IFF-codes. And that's just the start of the story. Even once the necessary software is written and proven to function, it still requires compatibility with all the elements of the system (i.e. all the software on diverse radars, SAM-systems, aircraft etc.). And that is an entirely different pair of shoes than enabling simultaneous operation of F/A-18Cs and SA-11s within the same piece of airspace.

...so much so, 'that' issue with the IFF was the principal reasons why the Assadists blasted that Russian Il-20M all the way to Mars, last autumn..


I agree that good integration would require co-operation between Turkey and Russia. It would basically require NATO compatible IFF system (Aselsan makes those) and integrating it with S-400 system. This would need protocol conversion software and possibly hardware also depending on what kind of interfaces there are in S-400 systems. Russian systems would not work as they are incompatible with NATO IFF systems. Same with getting track and plot data from S-400 systems to Turkish air defence network and vice versa. It requires similar protocol conversion and filtering of data.

Another major thing is also making S-400 compatible with Link 16. This would be pretty important for having full performance capabilties. This would be the most difficult thing to do both technologically and from security PoV.

So technologically it can done, but I agree that it would not be easy (especially when it comes to security) nor cheap. This is why it seems that Turkey will use the S-400 as a standalone system with only Turkish NATO compatible IFF system installed. Not a perfect solution and it seems like their S-400 will be pretty much for ABM duties only.
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Unread post17 Mar 2019, 05:39

B-52H conducted simulated attacks on Kalinagrad. Russia confirms and claims its radar forced it to turn around. Seems like the truth is that the Stratofortress got close enough to release its payload of baseline A model JASSMs.

https://defence-blog.com/news/us-bomber ... -base.html

https://defence-blog.com/news/russian-d ... ngrad.html
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Unread post17 Mar 2019, 11:43

If Erdogan is bound to the deal then it's some agreement that he doesn't want to break for strategic reasons.

That alone should be reason to drop Turkey from NATO strategic planning information. They are turncoats.
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marsavian

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Unread post17 Mar 2019, 20:26

milosh wrote:Buying S-400 is logical. Turks doesn't need S-400 for AA role but for ABM role. Only country with which they have problems is Israel and Israel have medium range ballistic missiles agianst which Turkey doesn't have answer. Buying PAC-3 would be stupid, Israel we can say own US so Turks would find hard way they spent billions on system which Israel can turn with pressure of button. That is why Turkey wanted to be allow to check and modify PAC-3 and when US said no they decide to buy Chinese HQ-9 because they weren't good with Russia back then. But NATO (read USA) put pressure and Turkey canceled HQ-9, then potential CIA coupe failed (some say thanks to KGB info) and of course Erdo will buy S-400 after that.


Fair enough, sounds logical. So if the Turks have a serious geopolitical problem with Israel another reason not to give them F-35s. Perhaps Greece should pick up some F-35 further down the line too as there are continual territorial disputes over Cyprus and the Aegean Islands going back to the last century. Erdogan has no filter, he's just a loud boorish undiplomatic Muslim Nationalist leader drunk on his power pretty much like the Iranian Ayotollahs. This divorce from the West has been long in coming especially as he has previously been busy violently arguing with the EU over so many matters and the Austrians are now openly calling for EU Accession talks for Turkey to be halted permanently.
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milosh

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Unread post18 Mar 2019, 09:44

One more reason to get S-400 is tech transfer. Turks plan to make their own SAM so they are probable going for same deal as Koreans, Korean new SAM is developed in cooperation with russian Almaz, it have missile similar to small S-400 missile and Korean AESA radar. Turks would need more help because they are not just weak in missile r&d but also in radar r&d.
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weasel1962

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Unread post21 Mar 2019, 07:40

Everything points towards a larger military required. CSBA on NATO's eastern front.

https://csbaonline.org/research/publica ... n-frontier
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