The next Korean War

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archeman

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Unread post11 Apr 2012, 18:16

This is a good thread thanks for bringing it up.

I think that it would be a good idea to try to view the East China/Yellow Sea area the same way that China does (if that is at all possible for a 'westerner').
I am not at all certain that China looks at the Korean peninsula the same way that westerners do.
When western based folks look at the Korean peninsula we see two countries:
1) A North Korea completely AFU backwards, and a vassal state to China
2) A South Korea growing fast as an economic power both regionally and globally
We believe that eventually the two nations will resolve their differences with the South prevailing and rejoining with the North somewhat like Germany did.

I think that China looks at the Korean peninsula as a single entity that should serve the same role that it did for about the last thousand years. A vassal state that serves as a shield to protect the mother country (China) from invasion from outsiders (primarily Japan).
China's actions in the Korean War served to protect it's buffer zone without going so far as to bring a threat to it's homeland.
I think that any expectations that China would run away from a conflict on the peninsula ignore this core requirement.
The Chinese have repeatedly demonstrated over the last 60 years that they are very willing to commit thousands of lives in battle to push away any foreign army that gets too close to their homeland. Russia, Vietnam, the United States and India have all felt the sting of this commitment.

When China looks at re-unification of the Korea peninsula, they have their priority on controlling their buffer zones so the outcome of that re-unification has a different outcome in their minds. Failing to understand this priority of this very powerful regional state could lead to a very embarrassing and costly repeat of mistakes made during the Korean War.
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OleRusty

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Unread post12 Apr 2012, 05:30

Archeman,
I absolutely agree with most everything that you said.

I've studied that region for many years in the research of my book and the answers won't be found in western thinking. I also agree that China looks at the peninsula as a buffer, but I don't know if they would risk their new world standing for the wills of a child like Kim Jong un. Since the 70s ping pong democracy, china has worked steadily to become a world leader. I'm not a china fan, but it would be tough to argue against their success.

Grab my book on amazon while it's still at $0.99. Tell me what you think of it.
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Unread post12 Apr 2012, 23:34

ptplauthor wrote:Not if the four corps on the border cross the DMZ--the CFC's going to be overwhelmed quick, and that's going to pose a serious problem for the US reinforcements.

I'm not so sure it's going to be a month-long war, sky, it took from August to right before the shooting started in the PGW to get every piece in place. We're certainly going to need as much if not more troops to counter the KPA. Just to get the MPSRON from Guam it's going to take over a week. And if there's fierce fighting after the KPA crosses into South Korea (and why wouldn't there be?) losses are going to be heavy on both sides--the Army might be able to give better than they take, but there's only about 30-40K troops in the AO--that means we can't afford to lose anyone when the bullets start flying.

As a sidenote, my book features a pullback all the way to Pusan--where they fight a holding action because the ROKA refuses to be pushed off the peninsula, and the Abrams can't swim anyway. The USAF--from Japanese bases--and the ROKAF--from Jeju Island and Pusan AP--are able to punish the forces trying to collapse Pusan and they try and cut off the army's logistics tail (with armies, cutting off the head may not always work (War of 1812), but chopping the tail to bits will starve the body to death).

When a war kicks off, the Air Mobility Command has to move a lot of stuff: beans, bullets, bodies, bandages, armor, choppers, and (sometimes) even ordinance for the AF pilots to drop.

It would be sad for all involved, no real turkey shoot, I have no doubt the "South with US backing would prevail" but at what cost to both military and civilians....damn shame


I agree, it would be a shame, and I'm sure by the end of the first week, the newsies are going to be screaming to get rid of the entire military for all the casualties that would be inflicted....but then it could serve as a reminder that the US Armed Forces aren't omnipotent and invincible. Chuck Horner said it best, he loves the thrill of combat, but hates war. I hate war too, but sometimes it's the only option that will get results.


307

Book?
I read a book called Red Phoenix that was a fictional account of a NK invasion of the south.
It started with the North infiltrating suicide assassin teams to off every SK leader and US ranking officer.
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Unread post12 Apr 2012, 23:38

ptplauthor wrote:I think Kim knows the US policy on WMD--a germ is a gas shell is a nuke--since we don't have gas or germs, we're gonna go nuclear if he gasses or infects anybody. I also think the DPRK doesn't have much in the way of CBRN defense, so Kim may not want to risk his fat little neck to wipe out the South.

The UN is--in my eyes--a useless waste of money, time, and energy. They manage to screw up more than they get right. If push comes to shove on the Peninsula, the UN isn't going to do a darn thing--even with a South Korean as Secretary-General. If they don't stand with us, I say the US should leave the UN, and the POTUS should hang an eviction notice on the door of the UNHQ--have France keep the rogues in line, and see how far it gets them then. I know that will never happen, though, because if the US leaves, the system will dissolve from lack of support.

I got the impression that North Korea had everything set up so that, were we to carpet bomb their entire country with nukes, they would still have enough force to overrun the south. Everything is buried in a network of underground bunkers.
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southernphantom

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Unread post13 Apr 2012, 02:57

count_to_10 wrote:
ptplauthor wrote:I think Kim knows the US policy on WMD--a germ is a gas shell is a nuke--since we don't have gas or germs, we're gonna go nuclear if he gasses or infects anybody. I also think the DPRK doesn't have much in the way of CBRN defense, so Kim may not want to risk his fat little neck to wipe out the South.

The UN is--in my eyes--a useless waste of money, time, and energy. They manage to screw up more than they get right. If push comes to shove on the Peninsula, the UN isn't going to do a darn thing--even with a South Korean as Secretary-General. If they don't stand with us, I say the US should leave the UN, and the POTUS should hang an eviction notice on the door of the UNHQ--have France keep the rogues in line, and see how far it gets them then. I know that will never happen, though, because if the US leaves, the system will dissolve from lack of support.

I got the impression that North Korea had everything set up so that, were we to carpet bomb their entire country with nukes, they would still have enough force to overrun the south. Everything is buried in a network of underground bunkers.


I've done some looking on Google Earth around KPAF airbases, and let me tell you, those guys are so into digging underground fortifications that they may or may not be evolving into moles.

As for the newsies- if they think Korea Part II would be bad, they obviously haven't even contemplated what would happen if the fit hit the shan in the Med/ME. That's the kind of thing that keeps me up at night.
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archeman

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Unread post14 Apr 2012, 04:37

OleRusty wrote:I've studied that region for many years in the research of my book and the answers won't be found in western thinking. I also agree that China looks at the peninsula as a buffer, but I don't know if they would risk their new world standing for the wills of a child like Kim Jong un. Since the 70s ping pong democracy, china has worked steadily to become a world leader. I'm not a china fan, but it would be tough to argue against their success.



I haven't seen a lot of evidence that the Chinese really care all that much about who maintains their buffer zone. I mean they don't seem to mind if the ruler is a nut job. I think that their priorities are 1) Primary loyalty must be to Beijing 2) Must maintain suffient military power to deter any outsider army from nearing the China border.

If you fail any of the above two tests you get invaded by the peoples army for corrective action. If you pass the above two tests it's totally OK to declare yourself a living god who listens to disco and claims to have played a perfect game of golf on their very first time on the links (true claim).
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OleRusty

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Unread post24 Apr 2012, 16:55

Archeman,
Have you looked at 'Penalty of Pride' on Amazon? You are very sharp on this region and seem very interested in it. I think you might like it. Of course, that could be some shameless self-praise, but it's worth the read. I'd even be willing to gift you a copy of it. PM me if you're interested.
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