Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 03 Jan 2020, 20:46
by steve2267
Pres Trump's recent decision to arrange introductions for Iranian General Soleimani, and Iran promising more "responses", I got to thinking about F-35's being deployed to the region. Then I recalled some news of a recent deployment. Sure enough, the 34th TFS Rude Rams deployed from Hill AFB to Al Dhafra Air Base outside Abu Dhabi last November. The articles I found stated the deployment was for six months, but did not mention how many aircraft. Seeing imagery for 24 or so Strike Eagles on the ramp @ Al Dhafra from Google Earth, it seems reasonable that the Rams deployed a full squadron of 24 Lightnings. With a 590nm A-G range, unrefueled, the Lightnings appear to be able to cover all of the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and most of Iran. Tehran is just inside the range from airfields in Bahrain, but I do not know if CentCom is still basing tactical aircraft there or on Qatar.

Does anyone know if the USMC has a MEU floating around with F-35Bs on board, and where it is? I thought there was an LHD with more than six Bees on board; last I heard they were around the Philippines, but my Google-fu fails me.

Would there be any advantage strategically or tactically if the US could put a Lightning carrier in the Persian Gulf with upwards of 24 Bees? Or if it gets exciting, is the Persian Gulf the last place you want to be with a carrier (i.e. bottled up?), and it is best to simply deploy from fixed air bases?

If this situation heats up, USAF LIghtnings may draw blood before the Israelis.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 03 Jan 2020, 21:28
by wrightwing
steve2267 wrote:Pres Trump's recent decision to arrange introductions for Iranian General Soleimani, and Iran promising more "responses", I got to thinking about F-35's being deployed to the region. Then I recalled some news of a recent deployment. Sure enough, the 34th TFS Rude Rams deployed from Hill AFB to Al Dhafra Air Base outside Abu Dhabi last November. The articles I found stated the deployment was for six months, but did not mention how many aircraft. Seeing imagery for 24 or so Strike Eagles on the ramp @ Al Dhafra from Google Earth, it seems reasonable that the Rams deployed a full squadron of 24 Lightnings. With a 590nm A-G range, unrefueled, the Lightnings appear to be able to cover all of the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and most of Iran. Tehran is just inside the range from airfields in Bahrain, but I do not know if CentCom is still basing tactical aircraft there or on Qatar.

Does anyone know if the USMC has a MEU floating around with F-35Bs on board, and where it is? I thought there was an LHD with more than six Bees on board; last I heard they were around the Philippines, but my Google-fu fails me.

Would there be any advantage strategically or tactically if the US could put a Lightning carrier in the Persian Gulf with upwards of 24 Bees? Or if it gets exciting, is the Persian Gulf the last place you want to be with a carrier (i.e. bottled up?), and it is best to simply deploy from fixed air bases?

If this situation heats up, USAF LIghtnings may draw blood before the Israelis.

F-35As have a strike range of ~670+nm, and it's doubtful that carriers/LHAs will want to get themselves in narrow waters, when there's no military necessity. They'd likely stay in the Arabian Sea, as well operating aricraft from myriad land bases.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 03 Jan 2020, 22:16
by vilters
Iran has to move now ; Or the US military machine will be in place.

I they wait for the one above? They will end below.

PS; I believe in numbers. Israel has enough F-35 to teach them a lesson or 2.
F-35 range is NOT an issue.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 03 Jan 2020, 22:30
by steve2267
wrightwing wrote:F-35As have a strike range of ~670+nm, and it's doubtful that carriers/LHAs will want to get themselves in narrow waters, when there's no military necessity. They'd likely stay in the Arabian Sea, as well operating aricraft from myriad land bases.


From where does the 670 figure come? Latest LM Fast Facts still lists 590nm as the "combat radius" of the -A model. 590nm was what I was using for my Google Earth swags.

Google Earth is still showing KC-135s, Bones, even what appears to be some A-6 types @ Abu Nakhlah circa 2018/2019 imagery. If Qatar was a basing option, that puts Tehran at 634nm from Abu Nakhlah airfield.

I agree about limited maneuver room in the Gulf. Not sure I'd want to risk a big boat in that little pond. On the other hand, a flattop would give a lot of flexibility dealing with IADS etc up and down the Iranian coastline. An extra 18-24 Killer Bees could be awfully handy for that.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 03 Jan 2020, 22:38
by sprstdlyscottsmn
"If the pilot took off with full fuel 2 amraams and 2 2000lbs bombs flew 590nm and came back with a 10 min weapon deployment time they would land with around 7,000-8,000lbs still in the tank. "

FY2019 SAR demonstrated Radii
A-669nm
B-505nm
C-670nm

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 03 Jan 2020, 22:58
by steve2267
sprstdlyscottsmn wrote:"If the pilot took off with full fuel 2 amraams and 2 2000lbs bombs flew 590nm and came back with a 10 min weapon deployment time they would land with around 7,000-8,000lbs still in the tank. "

FY2019 SAR demonstrated Radii
A-669nm
B-505nm
C-670nm


Spurts, in round numbers, are you working with about 4675lb/hr @ .9 Mach cruise? 0.11nm/lb of go juice? I understand reserves, and regulations... but if one was willing to arrive back at home base with 45min of reserve @ normal cruise speed... sounds like the Lightning can go 815-825nm there and back. Doesn't leave any gas for fun and games though. Dang, but Lt Col Gunn wasn't joking when he said, "The jet has legs... reaaally looong legs..."

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 03 Jan 2020, 23:18
by Gums
Salute!

I do not think they would cruise at 0.9M, but maybe 25 or 30K and 0.8x M. The fuel flows sound high to me.

Rough gouge would be an easy 600 + N.M range with suggested loadout. One pass, haul a$$. Possible not even one defensive shot by a missile. Maybe a trigger happy gunner shooting at clouds after the bombs or missiles hit.

I don't have those lb/hr numbers you guys are quoting, but anything over 3500 lb/hr at 0.8 or 0.85 M seems high.

Gums sends...

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 03 Jan 2020, 23:34
by sprstdlyscottsmn
steve2267 wrote:
sprstdlyscottsmn wrote:"If the pilot took off with full fuel 2 amraams and 2 2000lbs bombs flew 590nm and came back with a 10 min weapon deployment time they would land with around 7,000-8,000lbs still in the tank. "

FY2019 SAR demonstrated Radii
A-669nm
B-505nm
C-670nm


Spurts, in round numbers, are you working with about 4675lb/hr @ .9 Mach cruise? 0.11nm/lb of go juice? I understand reserves, and regulations... but if one was willing to arrive back at home base with 45min of reserve @ normal cruise speed... sounds like the Lightning can go 815-825nm there and back. Doesn't leave any gas for fun and games though. Dang, but Lt Col Gunn wasn't joking when he said, "The jet has legs... reaaally looong legs..."


I'm just re-posting quotes I have collected along the way. From these quotes, I have inferred that Max End is ~4600pph and Max R is about .11nm/lb at high and fast conditions (10,000-15,000 feet higher and 50-80 knots faster than an F-16 in "full war equipment") so I figure 40k+ and 0.9M+

Normal Recovery Fuel is 2,500lb.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 03 Jan 2020, 23:40
by steve2267
Gums wrote:Salute!

I do not think they would cruise at 0.9M, but maybe 25 or 30K and 0.8x M. The fuel flows sound high to me.

Rough gouge would be an easy 600 + N.M range with suggested loadout. One pass, haul a$$. Possible not even one defensive shot by a missile. Maybe a trigger happy gunner shooting at clouds after the bombs or missiles hit.

I don't have those lb/hr numbers you guys are quoting, but anything over 3500 lb/hr at 0.8 or 0.85 M seems high.

Gums sends...


Gums, my numbers were swagged from Spurts post. So, I dunno any more than that.

Are your 3500 lb/hr coming from your own napkin calculator, Viper experience with some Kentucky windage applied, other?

I thought I had read 0.9 Mach cruise from somewhere, but I yield. Is it possible they cruise most of the way @ 0.8 or 0.85 M, but push it up to 0.9 Mach for the run? When hauling a$$, leave the throttle alone? Or push it up a bit? The Stubbee seems to slip through the Mach quite easily. One vid I was watching the other day of an LM PR type showing a reporter around the cockpit of the simulator showed the Stubbee @ 1.06 or 1.07 Mach. No mention made of the speed. Don't think he was in burner... think they may have "set it and forget it" wrt the throttle... and she just wanted to beat her own sound...

I didn't make allowance for fuel burn during climb. But neither did I account for coming back to near idle for that loooong approach back to base.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 00:54
by quicksilver
From the SAR —

“For Demonstrated Performance, extensive flight test data was used to calibrate the aero-performance model. The values listed herein as “Demonstrated Performance” are based on the final aero-performance model (up-and-away) for the F-35A and F-35B.”

I think we should be careful to remember that each of the variant profiles are different, and thus the comparative radius numbers are not apples-to-apples. Also, reference the statement above from the SAR, the early performance numbers were based on spec min engine fuel flows. As more data was accumulated from flight test, the modeled performance based on min engine was adjusted to reflect actual fuel flows.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 01:04
by charlielima223
Send a "Rapid Raptor" package for good measure

As a show of force I think sending up a flight of F-22s and F-35s in stealthy configuration and having them ghost Iranian radar sites. Have F-35s take SAR pictures of those sites and release it to the public media outlets. That would send a clear message to the Iranian military and their government.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 01:29
by marsavian
F-22s recently moved to Saudi Arabia along with B-1s so they are in the neighborhood too. There is a nucleus of a strike package there if needed and no doubt B-2s could visit from the US. Iran has basically acted with violent impunity for a long time in the ME, those days are over under this President. There is no need of a land war here* but if necessary Iran can be bombed back into the stone age to curtail its regional excursions. Iran is acting covertly like Iraq did overtly under Saddam Hussein which is not conducive to its long term well being as a nation.

* Iran has no direct land borders with US allies

Image

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 06:40
by steve2267
IMO, Iran crossed a line a long time ago in 1979, for which no one stood up to them. This most recent attack against the US Embassy in Baghdad is yet another line crossed, but this President, he fights. I don't think he goes looking for a fight, but he appears not to take any sh*t from bullies, and Iran is a bully.

If Iran elects to push this matter and further escalate kinetically and overtly, then, again IMO, there is no reason to keep the gloves on -- the assets appear to be in place to:
  • take down and utterly destroy the Fordow and Natanz underground nuclear facilities with GBU-28s carried by Strike Eagles and escorted by F-35A's doing their wormhole thingy
  • F-22's in the region fly fightersweep / topcover
  • F-35's degrade / destroy / annihilate Iranian IADS and anti-shipping sites along the Persian Gulf. This may be the most critical aspect and most dangerous -- in terms of Iran launching everything they have before they lose it... could impose serious losses on commercial shipping
  • Get as many B-2's overhead each night as can be sustained. At least one with MOPs, and one with either MOPs or as many GBU-28's as possible, the remainder with either 500lb or 2000lb JDAMs. If leadership is fixed, either MOP them up, or introduce them to some old artillery tubes. The JDAMs are for targets of opportunity or to start degrading infrastructure: electric grid, generation / distribution, refineries, COMM nodes, pipelines. Try to avoid making an environmental disaster, but do degrade their ability to pump / sell oil and to refine it into petrol.
Yes, back to the stone age send them.

At the same time, Psyops should be conducted to let the Iranian people know the USA does not have a quarrel with them, but with the mullahs and Revolutionary Guard leadership, that the USA stands ready to assist the Iranian people should they request assistance to overthrow their oppressors.

In addition to escorting Strike Eagles, F-35's could possibly (?) escort the Bones on other raids to destroy Iranian military infrastructure.

Biggest concern I see is protecting the tankers. Might need to top off Strike Eagles and Lightnings before going feet dry.

I for one am tired of this Iranian BS. It is refreshing to see someone finally call their hand and stand up to them.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 07:18
by steve2267
The Persians are not a stupid people. As such, they may come to the conclusion they cannot win kinetically and rather take this fight inter the cyberdomain. An all out cyber war may be pretty damaging to everyone. Dunno. However, there is evidence to suggest the USA may be able to stomp Iran into bits and bytes. How much damage the USA might suffer in return would be a risk the President has to weigh.

On the other hand, no one "sees" cyber. You don't see dead bodies (well, as readily) or attributable damage such as when a bomb explodes. So will the Persian ego allow the Iranians to not go kinetic, and rather to fight a cyber war? Or will the lack of explosions and physical suffering cause a "loss of face" to the Persians in the minds of their "followers," "adherents," or allies?

If they go overt kinetic, then I sure hope Pres Trump takes the gloves off (or has a super plan) and destroys the Iranian nuclear programs, at a minimum.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 10:08
by wrightwing
steve2267 wrote:
wrightwing wrote:F-35As have a strike range of ~670+nm, and it's doubtful that carriers/LHAs will want to get themselves in narrow waters, when there's no military necessity. They'd likely stay in the Arabian Sea, as well operating aricraft from myriad land bases.


From where does the 670 figure come? Latest LM Fast Facts still lists 590nm as the "combat radius" of the -A model. 590nm was what I was using for my Google Earth swags.


That comes from LM. 670nm A/G, 760nm A/A. It's been discussed at great length on F-35 range threads. Even those numbers are likely conservative, given some slides LM released in the past.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 10:38
by spazsinbad

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 12:38
by marsavian
steve2267, don't forget their most important offensive military targets, ballistic and cruise missiles.More effective than their air force at the moment. Certainly a prolonged aerial degrading of their military is exactly what stealth aircraft were built to achieve and there are enough of them now to spearhead and do the job well. A change in regime or at the very least a change in attitude is the ultimate goal here because they have been an outlaw military state for too long now.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 13:00
by SpudmanWP
vilters wrote:Iran has to move now ; Or the US military machine will be in place.

Iran can do NOTHING to stop the "machine".

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 13:28
by citanon
I think the worst thing Iran could have done was a cruise missile strike directed at US facilities in Iraq or elsewhere in the region coordinated with attack by PMF forces to take hostages.

However, they may have already lost the chance. For this to work they would to need to create a gap in US surveillance. They could have done this by taking out a US surveillance asset like a Triton drone immediately before an attack was to take place. That would then force all other manned and unmanned assets to pause or adjust their operations, creating blind spots for the Iranians to exploit. Unfortunately for them, they've already shown their hand with the take down of the Triton drone and subsequent hitting the Saudi oil facilities earlier last year.

That could have been a good move in a world where they controlled the escalation path but what they didn't realize was that they were not living in that world, and Trump would later go for the jugular without first hitting their pawns.

Meanwhile US countermeasures are probably in place. Cooller toys that the Iranians can't see have probably replaced the cool toys that they could. If they try to move now, they can expect more "pre-emption" and more dead generals.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 17:53
by sferrin
If Iran so much as waves their dick in our direction they'll lose their refineries and they know it. They aren't going to do jack sh*t.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 17:59
by madrat
It would suck for Iran if an attack on their refineries happened by drone from Saudi Arabia supported splinter groups in the region.

Karma is a bitch.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 18:57
by tailgate
First targets are always Command and Control.....always

Soli WAS C and C of the guard.....

We may take out targets as mentioned, but C and C is always top billing.......Take away the eyes and legs and the force degrades drastically.......jmho

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 19:14
by steve2267
tailgate wrote:First targets are always Command and Control.....always

Soli WAS C and C of the guard.....

We may take out targets as mentioned, but C and C is always top billing.......Take away the eyes and legs and the force degrades drastically.......jmho


You make a great point. Would there ever be an exception? Specifically I am thinking if Iran escalates further, and the tactical conditions were right, would you consider reducing Natanz and Fordow to rubble and remove the Iranian nuclear threat from the table for the next decade or so?

I can see the downside to such a move being, that if you did not also immediately address C&C and Iran still has hundreds or thousands of rockets, SRBMs, IRBMs, the Iranian leadership may then feel obliged to launch what they have, consequences be damned.

The converse being... if you remove C&C, you most probably still have the option of immediately mopping up Natanz and Fordow. If regime change were to occur, it might then be possible to civilly clean up / dismantle Fordow & Natanz without yellowcake and other nasties blowing in the wind.

OK, command & control it is.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 19:58
by spazsinbad
USS Bataan, Marines 26th MEU Heading to Middle East Amid Tensions with Iran
03 Jan 2020 Ben Werner

"...“USS Bataan and embarked Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) are underway conducting routine operations, demonstrating the inherent flexibility of our naval forces,” Lt. Cmdr. Matthew Comer, a U.S. 6th Fleet spokesman told USNI News. “For operational security reasons, we do not discuss future operations. ARGMEUs operate continuously across the globe to provide commanders with a forward-deployed, flexible and responsive sea-based Marine Air-Ground Task Force.” The Marines will join soldiers from the Fort Bragg, N.C.-based 82nd Airborne who have been sent to Iraq as a security measure following the U.S. operation that killed a top Iranian military leader on Thursday....

...On New Year’s Day, the Pentagon sent about 750 members of the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to Kuwait.

The Bataan Amphibious Ready Group had just arrived off the coast of Morocco this week before its new tasking, according to the USNI Fleet tracker. The ARG deployed quietly from the East Coast in December."

Source: https://news.usni.org/2020/01/03/uss-ba ... -with-iran

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 20:06
by steve2267
The 26th MEU has Harriers onboard the LHD-5 USS Bataan.

Closest USMC Lightning element would appear to be the USS America, LHA-6 forward deployed, and last reported docked, in Japan. As many may recall, as recently as October 2019, the America was exercising the "Lightning Carrier" concept with thirteen embarked Bees.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 20:12
by steve2267
USS Abraham Lincoln is transiting back to San Diego, her new home port, after being relieved by the USS Harry S Truman. Last report I saw had the Truman cruising around the Arabian Sea. No mention of her having transited the Strait of Hormuz.

So, only Lightnings apparently in play is the 34th TFS outside Abu Dhabi, unless more are flown in.

IMO, it seems reasonable that a squadron of Lightnings escorting a squadron of Strike Eagles (if they are still in theatre), with supporting Raptors, some Bones, and B-2's staging out of the USA would be sufficient to put an immediate hurt on Iranian C&C as tailgate has postulated. Look at what the USA achieved with the F-117 during the opening act of the first Gulf War.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 20:52
by tailgate
We will have three complete air arms from three services executing the air tasking order if it comes to that. Once air superiority is gained ( will be quick ), the services will be able to genuinely task and surgically take out whatever presents.

And when I say air superiority, I mean opposing air, IADS, and ecm assets. That is always a first and foremost though. Usually in the process of this you have C and C is neutralized. have to be careful with power girds cause most have redundant backups and military sites are usually isolated.....so.......targeting power grids is sometimes seen as targeting civilians, so form you own opinions on this.

Nukes, I think even Iran would have a very serious discussion about using a nuke of any type or purpose. It would be a game changing decision in so many ways it would take to long to write it all out. Taking out those sites would be a significant setback, but I think the ultimate goal could be achieved either way.

I think the use of F-22/35's in ny conflict would surprise people in the way they would be deployed and used.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 21:01
by steve2267
TG, just to be clear, I was in no way, shape, or form suggesting or advocating for use of nuclear weapons, tactical or strategic. I was inquiring about the wisdom (or not) of immediately destroying the industrial capacity of Iran to produce the materials necessary to construct atomic devices.

The only other possible utility I see in the destruction of underground, hardened production facilities is whether you might achieve a twofer... and Rocketboy come to his senses and pull a Ghadafi... deciding he really does not want to temp fate (or Trump as it were.)

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 21:15
by tailgate
No worries Steve, I think if you can somehow have a fundamental change in thought and government, the need for those facilities would be negated. All I think we are asking is stop acting the way you do, join the civilized world and see what happens.

I can help but cite Qatar and UAE's situation in the world ( I have been to both ). I'm not saying that they don't have problems but look at their societies and they aren't running around causing unrest. They seem to be enjoying quit the nice life, just saying. And as far as know, they don't need WMD's.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 21:20
by tailgate
Oh, and on your point,I agree.......never quite understood putting stuff underground though. With our technology, we can destroy and bury that stuff for along time. I'm not sure that Iran right now could withstand to rebuild all that financially, or to continually rebuild it........

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 21:29
by marsavian
In the long run Israel will not let Iran develop nuclear weapons so I don't know if their nuclear facilities have any long term future anyway. I could see though once Iran's military has been defanged by the US military that all these facilities could be targeted anyway by Trump as a tidying up exercise. Trump may only have a year left in office so things could move pretty fast this year with zero tolerance to any proxy (nevermind direct) terrorism now being his policy.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 21:31
by spazsinbad
Some in the west don't quite understand why IRAN does what it does. Religion / Politics / Criminal Gangs - you name it.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 21:33
by steve2267
spazsinbad wrote:Most in the west don't quite understand why IRAN does what it does. Religion / Politics / Criminal Gangs - you name it.


FIFY

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 21:44
by marsavian
If you spend any time on the Ayatollah's Twitter (yes he's a big fan like Trump and he may have egged Trump on recently by taunting him on Twitter by saying you can't do anything) you get an inkling. He seems to think he's a modern day descendant of Muhammad and Jesus and coupled with very strident nationalism leads to a very dangerous mix of religious reactionary fervour in his followers. It's up to the secular Iranians to ultimately depose this whole religious government as I suspect they will continue to cause misguided regional mischief until then.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 21:46
by steve2267
I don't want to see a promising thread be summarily locked... so... back to the F-35...

I noted with interest a day or so ago that the 34th TFS, Rude Rams, had deployed to the Persian Gulf for six months. I noted from Google Earth imagery that Strike Eagles, at least one squadron's worth, had been to the same air base outside Abu Dhabi in 2018 and/or 2019. (No Month/Day/Year date on the GE images. For shame.)

Another article I just found whilst searching on all things MOP related, A hundred super ground penetrator bombs might be needed to reach deep bunkers using superconcrete, stated that University of Tehran students had created "SuperConcrete" that had surpassed 60,000psi compressive strength. So Iran has clearly been at the forefront of superconcrete research. This same article stated that a GBU-57/B MOP drops from 60m penetration in 5,000psi concrete to just 8m penetration in 10,000psi concrete. I suppose it is possible that even the GBU-28 might not be able to penetrate Fordow / Natanz structures. MOPs probably can. Those details are classified I'm sure.

If GBU-28's are judge capable, then it would seem F-35's doing their Lightning EW-wormhole thingy, would be the ideal escort for Strike Eagles. If GBU-28's can create holes, are F-35s accurate enough to put GBU-109s or "regular" Mk84s through the holes? Or does that technique (trailing bomb through first bomb hole) need to be executed by the same aircraft? (I know from surveying, that if I observe locations with the same GPS equipment within the same period of time, observations can be pretty "tight." But use different equipment or come back at a different time (satellite constellation different), my accuracy can degrade by 50-100%.

I dunno what is going to happen. IMO, Pres Trump's targeting Soleimani was a "measured" response. Hopefully cooler Mullah heads will prevail.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 21:48
by steve2267
marsavian wrote:If you spend any time on the Ayotallah's Twitter (yes he's a big fan like Trump and he may have egged Trump on recently by taunting him on Twitter by saying you can't do anything) you get an inkling. He seems to think he's a modern day descendant of Muhammad and Jesus and coupled with very strident nationalism leads to a very dangerous mix of religious reactionary fervour in his followers. It's up to the secular Iranians to ultimately depose this whole religious government as I suspect they will continue to cause misguided regional mischief until then.


That's just bad all around. If he is that demented, the F-35's may very well be getting a true baptism by fire in the very near future.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 22:13
by sferrin
tailgate wrote:First targets are always Command and Control.....always

Soli WAS C and C of the guard.....

We may take out targets as mentioned, but C and C is always top billing.......Take away the eyes and legs and the force degrades drastically.......jmho



In a war, sure. We're not at war with Iran and almost certainly won't be any time in the near future. This will be a tit-for-tat. Iran has to decide if they want to stop here or not, because the next step is they lose their refineries and maybe their navy too.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 22:23
by steve2267
sferrin wrote:
In a war, sure. We're not at war with Iran and almost certainly won't be any time in the near future. This will be a tit-for-tat. Iran has to decide if they want to stop here or not, because the next step is they lose their refineries and maybe their navy too.


Michael Yon, a former Green Beret cum writer whom I respect greatly, stated do not go for the refineries -- the Iranian people will need the refineries to rebuild their country. Going for the refineries could be seen as going after the Iranian people. I think Tailgate made a similar point above regarding the electrical grid.

With C&C in mind, I do keep coming back to decapitate Iran's nuclear program. A stated aim of preventing Iran from developing an atomic weapon would (most probably) be achieved, relieving, in the near - mid term anyway, a lot of pressure on Israel. It would also be a "political feather in his cap" that Trump could point to come re-election time: I promised I would not permitt Iran to develop nuclear weapons, and I kept that promise. Possibily accomplished with F-35's escorting Strike Eagles. If SE not in theater, then B-2s dropping GBU-28 / GBU-57/B MOPs with F-35's rolling back IADS, conducting ISR, and generally raising havoc. F-22's rolling up the Iranian Air Force. (Sorry Tomcat lovers.)

To me the big unknown, other than cyber, is if Iran would decide to use all her "vaunted rockets." Israel might find its hands full with proxy forces in Lebanon and Gaza. Am guessing it would put the Adirs to good use targeting launch points in real time.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 04 Jan 2020, 23:00
by steve2267
Evidently someone didn't get the memo from the Head Mullah, OR the Iranians want to dance.

BREAKING: Missiles Hit Base Where U.S. Troops Stationed In Iraq And Near U.S. Embassy, Reports Say
by Ryan Saavedra, January 4th, 2020, DailyWire.com

Multiple rockets hit a military base in Iraq on Saturday where U.S. troops are stationed while mortars were fired at a high-security facility that houses the U.S. Embassy, according to multiple reports.

Reuters reported, “Several rockets fell on Saturday inside Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone, its Jadriya neighborhood, and the Balad air base housing U.S. troops.”

...
https://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking-missiles-hit-base-where-u-s-troops-stationed-in-iraq-and-near-u-s-embassy-reports-say


Would a pair of F-35's opposite each other in a racetrack do a better job at immediately detecting rocket launches & pinpointing the location than, say, drones? Am thinking DAS + APG-81 + EOTS, fused, would result in better intel than a ground based radar or any drone. Reapers have ElectroOptical, and probably Thermal, but don't think they have any sensors for automatically detecting, classifying, and building tracks on incoming. I could be wrong. That would be a handy thing to have in some sort of a tactical drone. Do any unamnned systems come close to fusing the sensors the F-35 has built-in?

If you put a fourship over Baghdad, or in the neighborhood... two in a racetrack, and two roving about, all with SDB's on board... the racetrack guys could detect & fix the launch points, which are then immediately addressed by the rovers. After 3 or so hours, rovers get gas from an aerial filling station, then take the place of the racetrack guys. Racetrack guys get gas, then become the rovers. Replace the fourship every six hours. That's a lot of JP, though just flying a rocket CAP. A lot of wear and tear on the machines just boring holes in the sky.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 00:08
by marsavian
The serious (Iranian) retaliation won't take place until after Iran has milked the state funeral next week. What they will do is unknown but the US response will be worse. I can't see this ending up in any other way than a full conventional state to state conflict as Iran and the US have mutually conflicting foreign policy goals in the same neighborhood and it has been brewing for decades. Iran has an exaggerated sense of their military power as Iraq once did and this will unfortunately have to be demonstrated to them forcibly as that is where their international politics has unerringly taken them.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 01:58
by magitsu
This latest lunacy of 52 targets, including cultural sites, is baiting Iran to call it.
They might not need a real event to bring the Iranian people together (even those that oppose the current regime), but allowing it to happen could do bigger international/historical damage to the US image than Iran itself could affect. If that were to happen, it could be seen as a nasty follow up from ISIS in Palmyra only just a moment ago.

Iran can't do meaningful conventional damage (and doing so would give way too clean casus belli to drop self-placed restraints), but it can become a semi-plausible martyr for the cause like Soleimani. It would be incredible if after all the bad things they've done if it would be allowed to happen.

Similarly Iran can't do tactically anything against the F-35, but it can possibly shape conditions for them to be used in a strategically wrong way.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 02:56
by marsavian
It's only fair that Iran is warned as they still seem to be under the misapprehension that it's still business as usual where they commision or perpetrate acts of violence and no real repercussions occur. This President is not playing that game anymore.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 03:02
by magitsu
marsavian wrote:It's only fair that Iran is warned as they still seem to be under the misapprehension that it's still business as usual where they commision or perpetrate acts of violence and no real repercussions occur. This President is not playing that game anymore.

Goes a maybe bit too far to suggest willingness to engage in war crimes. Cultural sites can't be targeted.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 03:24
by marsavian
Cultural sites can't be targeted.


But innocent people can ? Iran has perpetrated terrorist acts for decades and now it's got its claws into Iraq, Syria, Lebanon with its malicious eyes on Israel and Saudi Arabia. This is Saddam Hussein type behavior and will ultimately receive the same response. It's hard to understand how Iran's behavior is accepted and now considered normal foreign policy amongst some people.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 04:03
by magitsu
marsavian wrote:
Cultural sites can't be targeted.

But innocent people can ? Iran has perpetrated terrorist acts for decades and now it's got its claws into Iraq, Syria, Lebanon with its malicious eyes on Israel and Saudi Arabia. This is Saddam Hussein type behavior and will ultimately receive the same response. It's hard to understand how Iran's behavior is accepted and now considered normal foreign policy amongst some people.

We are trying to be the good guys.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 04:12
by steve2267
I am not going to wordsmith or psychoanalyze Trumps words. He may simply mean that hiding amongst culturally “important” objects will not protect you.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 14:13
by mixelflick
marsavian wrote:It's only fair that Iran is warned as they still seem to be under the misapprehension that it's still business as usual where they commision or perpetrate acts of violence and no real repercussions occur. This President is not playing that game anymore.


Trump is very much like Reagan in this regard. You act up (like Quadaffi), you get 2,000lb bombs dropped on your head. These idiots know there's a new sheriff in town, and he's not afraid to take decisive action.

This is one of the (many) reasons I'll happily vote for him again. If this was Biden, Sanders or (God forbid) Clinton, they'd all want to sit around and talk about their feelings. That crap belongs on The View or Oprah - this is the real world. It's time to take care of business, and thank God we have a president that's doing it..

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 14:28
by marsavian
Iran was attacking US bases because it wants the US out of Iraq and Syria so it can have an uninterrupted land bridge to attack Israel which according to them has no right to exist. Conflict was always brewing with that warped Iranian mindset.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 17:36
by zero-one
Getting pretty annoyed of all the WW3 doom and gloom news everywhere.
Seriously does anyone here think Iran has a realistic chance of making it past Iraq's record of 100 hours in a full scale war with the US?

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 18:08
by pmi
zero-one wrote:Seriously does anyone here think Iran has a realistic chance of making it past Iraq's record of 100 hours in a full scale war with the US?


I seem to recall there being a good deal more than four days fighting when I went into Iraq in 03.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 18:18
by marsavian
Exclusive: Iran's response to US will be military -- Khamenei's adviser

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/05/midd ... index.html

Tehran, Iran (CNN)The military adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader said Sunday that Tehran's response to the killing by the United States of its most most influential general will "for sure be military."

In an exclusive interview with CNN in Tehran, the adviser -- Maj. Gen. Hossein Dehghan -- made the most specific and direct threat yet by a senior Iranian official following the killing of Gen. Qasem Soleimani in a US drone strike in Baghdad. Dehghan said Iran would retaliate directly against US "military sites."

Dehghan is a former defense minister and is now the main military adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He told CNN that reprisals would come from Iran itself, not its allied militia in the region. "It might be argued that there could be proxy operations. We can say America, Mr. Trump, has taken action directly against us -- so we take direct action against America."

The United States has a growing military presence in the region. Thousands of US troops have been deployed to Saudi Arabia, and there are some 5,000 at bases in Iraq. The US also has a major air base in Qatar and a naval presence in Bahrain, as well as troops stationed in Jordan, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

In common with other Iranian officials, Dehghan suggested that Iran was in no hurry to retaliate and would choose its targets carefully. "Our reaction will be wise, well considered and in time, with decisive deterrent effect."

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani had earlier said that Americans would face consequences for killing Soleimani "not only today, but also in the coming years."
Given the rhetoric of both sides, there is a growing risk of escalation in what has become the most dangerous confrontation between the US and Iran in decades.
Late Saturday, President Donald Trump tweeted that "If Iran attacks an American Base, or any American, we will be sending some of that brand new beautiful equipment their way...and without hesitation!" The President continued: "They attacked us, & we hit back. If they attack again, which I would strongly advise them not to do, we will hit them harder than they have ever been hit before!"

Dehghan responded defiantly to Trump's warning. "It was America that has started the war. Therefore, they should accept appropriate reactions to their actions," he said. "The only thing that can end this period of war is for the Americans to receive a blow that is equal to the blow they have inflicted. Afterward they should not seek a new cycle."

At one point in the interview, Dehghan pulled out a picture of Soleimani and held it up to the camera. "All Iranians are Qasem Soleimani," he said, and insisted the Quds force, which Soleimani had led since 2003, would not be weakened by his death. The Quds have been responsible for projecting Iranian influence across the Middle East and beyond and have played a major role in supporting the Assad regime in Syria. "The person who has replaced him has been cooperating with him for two decades. He has the same manner and method," Dehghan said. Iran's will to defend its interests "has increased a thousand times. We don't feel anything. We have a logic, the logic of martyrdom."


Sounds like BM and CM attacks which will test the Patriots, Aegis and Thaads. After that though the stealth fighters and bombers go in to start the process of degrading their military to the point of regional impotence which will be a few maybe many months job.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 18:20
by steve2267
pmi wrote:
zero-one wrote:Seriously does anyone here think Iran has a realistic chance of making it past Iraq's record of 100 hours in a full scale war with the US?


I seem to recall there being a good deal more than four days fighting when I went into Iraq in 03.


I took his quote in the context of the spanking Saddam took in '91 and how long hostilities continued after the ground invasion began.

Personally, I hope a ground war does not ensue in Persia, rather that that regime is ground into dust from the air.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 18:36
by steve2267
marsavian wrote:Sounds like BM and CM attacks which will test the Patriots, Aegis and Thaads. After that though the stealth fighters and bombers go in to start the process of degrading their military to the point of regional impotence which will be a few maybe many months job.


It may be limited to two months (60 days) due to the War Powers Act given the way one political party in the US appears to be defending the Iranians and attacking President Trump. It is unclear to me if the "authorization of force" passed by Congress back in 2001 (or that time frame) still applies in a "new" (?) conflict with Iran. I am fairly certain Obama claimed that 2001 authorization as the legal basis for the 2800+ missile attacks the US reportedly conducted under him.

On the other hand, if the Iranians directly attack US military forces in the Middle East, it would seem to put the Democrats in the untenable position of tying the hands of a sitting US President.

If "open" hostilities commence, I am not sure anyone can foresee how it plays out. It does appear that Iranian infrastructure could be ground into dust from the air if the US military is turned loose.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 19:03
by pmi
steve2267 wrote:Personally, I hope a ground war does not ensue in Persia, rather that that regime is ground into dust from the air.


I know this won't be a popular opinion on this board, but that isn't a realistic hope. Not that ground war will be avoided (it probably will), but about the relative effectiveness of air power outside of combined arms operations.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 19:25
by steve2267
I am not seeing anything in open sources about THAAD having been deployed to the Gulf region. THAAD was deployed to Deveselu in southern Romania over the summer of 2019 while Aegis Ashore was down for maintenance. I presume that THAAD unit has returned to Texas by now.

Aegis Ashore has been deployed (installed?) in Romania and in Poland. Poland was slated for Aegis in 2018, but some articles I found suggest it is not yet operational in Poland?

I recall the US Navy NICS test where an F-35 cued / guided an Aegis intercept at White Sands New Mexico. Was that only an aircraft target though?

Patriot PAC-3 seems to be deployed by multiple nation-states along the Persian Gulf. I do not know how many US PAC-3 deployments there are up and down the Persian Gulf. PAC-3 is supposed to be able to receive track information via Link-16, or at least search cueing from Link-16.

Has F-35 been used to successfully test actual ABM intercepts in tests? Is it operational? Or is the F-35 cueing air defenses operational, or still a notional Block 4 capability? Is F-35 cueing of PAC-3 via Link-16 operational yet?

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 20:04
by steve2267
pmi wrote:
steve2267 wrote:Personally, I hope a ground war does not ensue in Persia, rather that that regime is ground into dust from the air.


I know this won't be a popular opinion on this board, but that isn't a realistic hope. Not that ground war will be avoided (it probably will), but about the relative effectiveness of air power outside of combined arms operations.


I acknowledge and respect your opinion. On the one hand, we have not seen that sort of success -- short of strategic air campaigns -- in the past. On the other hand, much like GPS changed land warfare in '91 what with the Iraqi's inability to comprehend large scale maneuver warfare across a featureless desert, could not the F-35 have a similar effect on tactical air warfare with its system-of-systems capabilities in terms of automatically detecting, classifying, sharing, and prosecuting targets?

Would limited combined arms operations where ground elements are used to help find and fix targets for prosecution from the air address the shortcomings to which you refer? (I could be entirely full of sh*t on this point.) An application then, for Special Forces + V-22's? Maybe even for USMC rapidly moving, expeditionary FOBS? For the Marines to really make that work, though... I think they need Bees... Harriers don't have the network tie-ins, do they? The USS Bataan, presently heading towards the Gulf, only carriers Harriers. The logical choice would seem to be LHA-6, USS America, but she is reportedly still docked in Japan. She last exercised the Lightning Carrier concept with thirteen Bees in October '19. I found mention of sixteen Bees deployed to Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, but if you took all those, plunked them on USS America and set sail to the Gulf, you leave a "hole" in terms of F-35 force deployment in the Far East. It would also take at least two weeks for the America, steaming at 20kts (near max speed reportedly of 22kts) to get to theater.

(On the other hand, this means boots on the ground, and if operations went sideways, the prospect of prisoners, already a possibility when flying aircraft over another nation's sovereign ground, could lead to worsening escalation.)

I did see that the USAF tested the rapid, forward deployment of an F-35 squadron to an undisclosed location in the Middle East within a 3-day time period during 2019. An additional twenty-four -A model Stubbies within 3 days could be a significant "stealth" addition, even if USMC F-35B-equipped MEUs (or larger) were not utilized. The US accomplished an awful lot with forty-two F-117s in '91. A second squadron would put upwards of forty-eight F-35A's in theater. I suppose if the US deployed the USS America as a Lightning Carrier with USMC elements for a forward deployed scouting element from the sea, Japan could be backfilled with F-35s from Hill AFB.

F-35's as ISR scouts could lay a net over Iran, able to prosecute pop-up targets either with a BLU-109 JDAM or SDB, and separately F-35 twoships could escort Strike Eagles or Bones on specific strikes much the way the Dutch demonstrated in that exercise in Arizona.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 20:14
by marsavian
THAAD is on standby to go to Saudi Arabia but no doubt it could be put elsewhere in the region if needed urgently. AEGIS will be on the destroyers/cruisers of any carrier battle group sent there.

viewtopic.php?p=427416#p427416

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 20:27
by wrightwing
magitsu wrote:
marsavian wrote:It's only fair that Iran is warned as they still seem to be under the misapprehension that it's still business as usual where they commision or perpetrate acts of violence and no real repercussions occur. This President is not playing that game anymore.

Goes a maybe bit too far to suggest willingness to engage in war crimes. Cultural sites can't be targeted.

He didn't say cultural sites were targeted.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 21:13
by marsavian
Iran Ends Commitment to Landmark Nuclear Deal

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/05/worl ... trump.html

Iran’s government said it was ending all its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal and that it would no longer limit its enrichment of uranium.

The announcement came after Iran’s National Security Council held an emergency meeting on Sunday to discuss the country’s nuclear policy in the aftermath of Maj. Gen. Qassim Soleimani’s assassination.

The statement said: “The Islamic Republic of Iran will end its final limitations in the nuclear deal, meaning the limitation in the number of centrifuges. Therefore Iran’s nuclear program will have no limitations in production including enrichment capacity and percentage and number of enriched uranium and research and expansion.”

But the government said Iran would continue its cooperation with International Atomic Agency and return to the nuclear deal if the sanctions against it were removed and Iran’s interests were guaranteed.


... so in all likelihood these nuclear facilities will be on the target list if full scale hostilities break out.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 21:56
by charlielima223
I hope the US Israel and Iran doesnt go to full scale balls to the wall war.

However IF such an event were to happen, no doubt US and Israeli F-35s will be used. What I wonder are the differences in capabilities (if any) between US F-35s and their Israeli kin. From my understanding, F-35Is have their own home grown software and hardware, most likely driven by Israel's own unique requirements. Could it be that F-35Is have a more "beefy" ISR or EW capabilities compared to other F-35s?

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 22:12
by steve2267
charlielima223 wrote:I hope the US Israel and Iran doesnt go to full scale balls to the wall war.

However IF such an event were to happen, no doubt US and Israeli F-35s will be used. What I wonder are the differences in capabilities (if any) between US F-35s and their Israeli kin. From my understanding, F-35Is have their own home grown software and hardware, most likely driven by Israel's own unique requirements. Could it be that F-35Is have a more "beefy" ISR or EW capabilities compared to other F-35s?


My money would be on enhanced, custom comms to F-15I's and F-16I's and possibly home-grown target identification software (AI based?). Second would be integration of Israeli home-grown weapons (bombs, missiles etc). That's all pretty much software stuff, with some integration / release type flight testing.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 22:38
by spazsinbad
charlielima223 wrote:I hope the US Israel and Iran doesnt go to full scale balls to the wall war.

However IF such an event were to happen, no doubt US and Israeli F-35s will be used. What I wonder are the differences in capabilities (if any) between US F-35s and their Israeli kin. From my understanding, F-35Is have their own home grown software and hardware, most likely driven by Israel's own unique requirements. Could it be that F-35Is have a more "beefy" ISR or EW capabilities compared to other F-35s?

Where have you been? The 'Israel Pays for Additional F-35s' thread makes it clear that Israeli ADIRs F-35i WILL HAVE special 'home grown software & hardware' but WHEN. This year a special test ADIR will TEST all this add-on stuff but WHEN will it be AVAILABLE? Dunno. Subsequent ADIRs WILL HAVE modifications to allow easier Israeli Add-ons BUT....

Some links with plenty of others including recently the story about the specially modified TEST ADIR coming in 2020:

viewtopic.php?f=58&t=29374&p=358060&hilit=black#p358060
&
viewtopic.php?f=58&t=29374&p=374996&hilit=black#p374996

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 22:40
by marsavian

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 22:48
by steve2267
Someone put together a Google Maps web page of the same.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?ie ... 168555&z=9

Fordow is the facility "burrowed into a mountain." Natanz apparently is just buried, but reportedly under a lot of reinforced concrete. Obviously Iran is aware from the Iraq conflicts how deeply US munitions penetrate. Whether they are protected against the GBU-28, I don't know, but Israel bought 100 of those. I doubt Fordow or Natanz are proof against the MOP.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 05 Jan 2020, 22:51
by vilters
Remember :

Let us be cristal clear about this fact.

When you are cleared to atack a nuclear site?
The return flight is by definition "optional".

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 00:17
by marsavian
Pompeo defends Soleimani strike as critics question intel, timing

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-tal ... tel-timing

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" strategy on Iran is working and vowed that the U.S. would behave lawfully while targeting the country's “actual decision-makers” rather than Tehran's proxy forces.

Addressing Trump’s threat specifically to attack sites “important to Iran & the Iranian culture,” which could be a war crime under the Geneva Convention, Pompeo responded “We’ll act lawfully. We’ll behave inside the system. We always have, and we always will.”

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 00:59
by lamoey
steve2267 wrote:The Persians are not a stupid people. As such, they may come to the conclusion they cannot win kinetically and rather take this fight inter the cyberdomain. An all out cyber war may be pretty damaging to everyone. Dunno. However, there is evidence to suggest the USA may be able to stomp Iran into bits and bytes. How much damage the USA might suffer in return would be a risk the President has to weigh.

On the other hand, no one "sees" cyber. You don't see dead bodies (well, as readily) or attributable damage such as when a bomb explodes. So will the Persian ego allow the Iranians to not go kinetic, and rather to fight a cyber war? Or will the lack of explosions and physical suffering cause a "loss of face" to the Persians in the minds of their "followers," "adherents," or allies?

If they go overt kinetic, then I sure hope Pres Trump takes the gloves off (or has a super plan) and destroys the Iranian nuclear programs, at a minimum.


As with the last major conflict in the ME, Israels reaction to any diversionary hits may be the decider of who fights with who. I can easily see Iran letting Israel have a few rounds of incoming scrap metal, if the fighting really startes.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 02:58
by magitsu
wrightwing wrote:
magitsu wrote:Goes a maybe bit too far to suggest willingness to engage in war crimes. Cultural sites can't be targeted.

He didn't say cultural sites were targeted.

He even reiterates it.

"Breaking News: President Trump doubled down on his threat to target Iranian cultural sites if Iran retaliated for the killing of Gen. Suleimani"
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1213987834694131716

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 03:02
by Corsair1963
magitsu wrote:
wrightwing wrote:
magitsu wrote:Goes a maybe bit too far to suggest willingness to engage in war crimes. Cultural sites can't be targeted.

He didn't say cultural sites were targeted.

He even reiterates it.

"Breaking News: President Trump doubled down on his threat to target Iranian cultural sites if Iran retaliated for the killing of Gen. Suleimani"
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1213987834694131716



Never going to happen....Plus, what Trump says he will do and actually does. Are often two very different things...

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 03:09
by steve2267
Twitter link no workie...

As much as I detest quoting CNN, the President's words were:
Trump warns Iran if it hits any Americans or American assets 'we have targeted 52 Iranian sites'
By Jeremy Diamond, Caroline Kelly and Greg Clary, CNN Updated 12:51 AM ET, Sun January 5, 2020

"We have ... targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture"

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/04/politics/trump-warning-iran-52-assets/index.html


He did NOT say the US would strike "cultural site." Rather, he stated "we have targeted 52 Iranian sites" some of which are important to Iranian culture. IMO, there is a difference.

For example, IMO, the World Trade Center Twin Towers were important to American Culture, but they were not "cultural sites."

FWIW, Secretary of State Pompeo acknowledged the controversy but clarified that the US would not do anything "illegal" with regard to targeting etc.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 03:24
by Corsair1963
If, Iran does strike the US for killing Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. I wouldn't counter by attacking Military Targets at least not as the primary target.


Instead I would hurt Iran in her soft underbelly! By that I mean the countries infrastructure. For example first strike at major power plants in the major cities. These would knock out power to millions of Iranians. Which, would be very costly to repair and get back up! Especially, attacking multiple sites at a time. Now, if that doesn't get them to change course. Then start targeting major bridges one by one! If, that doesn't work announce Oil Production Facilities will soon follow....

Remember, considerable discontent is already going on within the country! This would further fuel that...

Also, such attacks could occur late at night and in select areas. In order to keep causalities as light as humanly possible!

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 03:24
by marsavian
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/05/us/p ... sites.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/05/worl ... -iraq.html

Such a move could be considered a war crime under international laws, but Mr. Trump said Sunday that he was undeterred.

“They’re allowed to kill our people. They’re allowed to torture and maim our people. They’re allowed to use roadside bombs and blow up our people,” the president said. “And we’re not allowed to touch their cultural site? It doesn’t work that way.”

The remarks came just hours after the secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, walked back Mr. Trump’s tweets and said that whatever was done in any military engagement with Iran would be within the bounds of the law.

Mr. Trump also vowed to impose sanctions on Iraq if a move to evict American military personnel from the country takes place, a possibility heightened by the Iraqi Parliament’s passage Sunday of a measure to expel foreign troops. Mr. Trump warned Iraq on Sunday that there would be dire consequences for expelling American forces.

“We have a very extraordinarily expensive air base that’s there,” he said. “It cost billions of dollars to build, long before my time. We’re not leaving unless they pay us back for it.”

“If they do ask us to leave,” he added, “if we don’t do it in a very friendly basis, we will charge them sanctions like they’ve never seen before ever. It’ll make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame.”


How General Suleimani became a target

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/04/us/p ... imani.html

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 03:29
by Corsair1963
steve2267 wrote:
He did NOT say the US would strike "cultural site." Rather, he stated "we have targeted 52 Iranian sites" some of which are important to Iranian culture. IMO, there is a difference.

For example, IMO, the World Trade Center Twin Towers were important to American Culture, but they were not "cultural sites."

FWIW, Secretary of State Pompeo acknowledged the controversy but clarified that the US would not do anything "illegal" with regard to targeting etc.


Actually, I think the Liberal Media is hurting their cause by such attacks on Trump. As the general US Public has had about a enough of Iran. So, spinning the killing of Qassem Soleimani as a bad thing. Doesn't hold much water with most Americans.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 03:32
by marsavian
Corsair1963 wrote:If, Iran does strike the US for killing Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. I wouldn't counter by attacking Military Targets at least not as the primary target.

Instead I would hurt Iran in her soft underbelly! By that I mean the countries infrastructure. For example first strike at major power plants in the major cities. These would knock out power to millions of Iranians. Which, would be very costly to repair and get back up! Especially, attacking multiple sites at a time. Now, if that doesn't get them to change course. Then start targeting major bridges one by one! If, that doesn't work announce Oil Production Facilities will soon follow....

Remember, considerable discontent is already going on within the country! This would further fuel that...

Also, such attacks could occur late at night and in select areas. In order to keep causalities as light as humanly possible!


Disagree as you ultimately would want regime change so that a less expansionist secular government took over not the destruction of the country and the long term hate of the population. Shah 2.0 or a democratic version of it.
Their military has to be dismantled over time by continual aerial bombardment as well as direct assassinations of their leaders. The only non military targets should be nuclear facilities but they are ultimately military too.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 03:41
by magitsu
Regime change was assessed as unlikely before. Now it should be even harder when there's things that unite the fractions. Current situation looks once again impossible to win at a strategic level even if all tactical engagements were successful.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 03:47
by marsavian
If the army and internal security services are degraded sufficiently it will happen, remember there were recent protests/riots over tripling of fuel prices that were brutally put down by shooting. Everybody in uniform in Iran becomes a target along with all their bases and equipment.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 03:51
by charlielima223
@ Spaz

Thank you for the links

I dont religiously follow every thread and every discussion here. My knowledge in such matter are not extensive or deep but I would like think substantially better than most.

@ Corsair
It would be extremely wize to keep targets strictly military. Most people do not know (thanks to leftist controlled popular media) that there has been on going protests in Iran against its own government and the Ayatollah. From what I gather from conversations is that the Iranian people generally like America but they do not like how they are portrayed by the American government. Striking infrastructures that support the civilian populace (power plants, bridges etc) could have a negative effect. I agree with Mars that the end goal for a conflict with Iran would be a regime change. Rather a regime change from within from its own people. Drastically weaken the military and the tyrannical government and let the Iranian people do the rest.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 03:57
by charlielima223
marsavian wrote:If the army and internal security services are degraded sufficiently it will happen, remember there were recent protests/riots over tripling of fuel prices that were brutally put down by shooting. Everybody in uniform in Iran becomes a target along with all their bases and equipment.


Protests in Iran have been going on since the Obama administration and even before that. I remember when the Iranian people protested against Ahmadinejad.
The Iranian people were told they would have an open election yet that was a lie when he was elected. The real people who have power are the Ayatollahs and the Military. The people of Iran know this and they are becoming less and less supportive of them.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 04:00
by Corsair1963
marsavian wrote:
Disagree as you ultimately would want regime change so that a less expansionist secular government took over not the destruction of the country and the long term hate of the population. Shah 2.0 or a democratic version of it.
Their military has to be dismantled over time by continual aerial bombardment as well as direct assassinations of their leaders. The only non military targets should be nuclear facilities but they are ultimately military too.



The Government has to fall for the military to fall. When I say military I am referring to the Revolutionary Guard Corps.


What I suggest would be crushing to the Government of Iran. (IMHO) Which, I don't believe they could survive. Yet, it offers far less causalities to the Iranian People. Which, should be the ultimate goal.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 04:05
by Corsair1963
charlielima223 wrote:
Protests in Iran have been going on since the Obama administration and even before that. I remember when the Iranian people protested against Ahmadinejad.
The Iranian people were told they would have an open election yet that was a lie when he was elected. The real people who have power are the Ayatollahs and the Military. The people of Iran know this and they are becoming less and less supportive of them.


You have to fuel the unrest in the country. In order to overthrow the Government and Military. To do that you have to turn the Iranian people against them.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 04:07
by magitsu
This reminds me that perhaps it's time to watch The Fog of War once again. Amazing, humbling documentary.

"We are the strongest nation in the world today. I do not believe that we should ever apply that economic, political, and military power unilaterally. If we had followed that rule in Vietnam, we wouldn't have been there. None of our allies supported us. Not Japan, not Germany, not Britain or France. If we can't persuade nations with comparable values of the merit of our cause, we'd better reexamine our reasoning" ~ Robert S. McNamara

Unilateral actions... Trump seems quite fond of them even compared to past precedents.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 04:16
by Corsair1963
charlielima223 wrote:
@ Corsair
It would be extremely wize to keep targets strictly military. Most people do not know (thanks to leftist controlled popular media) that there has been on going protests in Iran against its own government and the Ayatollah. From what I gather from conversations is that the Iranian people generally like America but they do not like how they are portrayed by the American government. Striking infrastructures that support the civilian populace (power plants, bridges etc) could have a negative effect. I agree with Mars that the end goal for a conflict with Iran would be a regime change. Rather a regime change from within from its own people. Drastically weaken the military and the tyrannical government and let the Iranian people do the rest.


I disagree as military targets have little impact on the population. Unless you have a family member killed. Even then you likely want revenge! Plus, many of those same families may have not supported the Government. Yet, killing their family member just turned them against you!

Most Iranians are very unhappy with their personal living conditions and future prospects. What I suggest would make it clear. That was going to become much much worse.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 04:24
by Corsair1963
magitsu wrote:This reminds me that perhaps it's time to watch The Fog of War once again. Amazing, humbling documentary.

"We are the strongest nation in the world today. I do not believe that we should ever apply that economic, political, and military power unilaterally. If we had followed that rule in Vietnam, we wouldn't have been there. None of our allies supported us. Not Japan, not Germany, not Britain or France. If we can't persuade nations with comparable values of the merit of our cause, we'd better reexamine our reasoning" ~ Robert S. McNamara

Unilateral actions... Trump seems quite fond of them even compared to past precedents.


Iran isn't going to wake up tomorrow and change their ways! They will continue to mistreat their own people. While, killing and terrorizing anyone who opposes them.

Yes, it is the fault of the "Free World" for letting such countries to misbehave and even flourish. If, we were truly united we could have put an end to this many many years ago!

Sad that so few learn from history. Which, is why we continue to repeat it.... :(

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 04:28
by magitsu
Apparently closing the Strait of Hormuz would hit Asia the hardest.
Roughly 80% of Japan's, 75% of South Korea's, over 60% of India's and around 40% of China's crude comes from the area.
https://www.cnas.org/publications/repor ... re-straits

So those countries would have an interest to get involved / would see their goodwill towards the US burned the most because they aren't part of the decision making now.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 04:32
by Corsair1963
magitsu wrote:Apparently closing the Strait of Hormuz would hit Asia the hardest.
Roughly 80% of Japan's, 75% of South Korea's, over 60% of India's and around 40% of China's crude comes from the area.
https://www.cnas.org/publications/repor ... re-straits

So those countries would have interest to get involved / would see their goodwill towards the US burned the most because they aren't part of the decision making now.


So, you think those countries are going to side with Iran and provide them aid or even help they directly against the US... :doh:

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 04:36
by marsavian
Corsair1963 wrote:
charlielima223 wrote:
@ Corsair
It would be extremely wize to keep targets strictly military. Most people do not know (thanks to leftist controlled popular media) that there has been on going protests in Iran against its own government and the Ayatollah. From what I gather from conversations is that the Iranian people generally like America but they do not like how they are portrayed by the American government. Striking infrastructures that support the civilian populace (power plants, bridges etc) could have a negative effect. I agree with Mars that the end goal for a conflict with Iran would be a regime change. Rather a regime change from within from its own people. Drastically weaken the military and the tyrannical government and let the Iranian people do the rest.


I disagree as military targets have little impact on the population. Unless you have a family member killed. Even then you likely want revenge! Plus, many of those same families may have not supported the Government. Yet, killing their family member just turned them against you!

Most Iranians are very unhappy with their personal living conditions and future prospects. What I suggest would make it clear. That was going to become much much worse.


If the military security structure is still intact and in place though they will just get shot again. You have to destroy the military first so people can congregate and riot organically without fear of repression. Destroying the military will also reduce their threat to their immediate neighbors too, win-win. Their Army, Air Force and Navy along with their internal military police have all to be degraded to the point of impotency and this will take considerable time without uniformed boots on the ground until the internal population eventually does the job for you.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 04:50
by Corsair1963
marsavian wrote:
If the military security structure is still intact and in place though they will just get shot again. You have to destroy the military first so people can congregate and riot organically without fear of repression. Destroying the military will also reduce their threat to their immediate neighbors too, win-win. Their Army, Air Force and Navy along with their internal military police have all to be degraded to the point of impotency and this will take considerable time without uniformed boots on the ground until the internal population eventually does the job for you.



What you're talking about is a massive bombing campaign that would "ravage" Iran and kill vast numbers of people! (main civilians) Nor, what I propose would preclude attacking Military Targets later.


As a matter of fact some Military Targets would be attacked under my plan. Mainly, SAM's and Fighters as to crush any opposition to American Strike Aircraft. Yet, Iran is very weak in that department. (especially fighters) So, they wouldn't offer much resistance.....

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 04:50
by magitsu
Corsair1963 wrote:So, you think those countries are going to side with Iran and provide them aid or even help they directly against the US... :doh:

No, but as I mentioned goodwill would be burned because they would suffer more than the US for a decision they currently have no say in.

It's more interesting how Trump would try to use the fact that China would suffer more. Take a peek, it's a good article with few interesting scenarios in this regard. https://www.cnas.org/publications/repor ... re-straits

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 04:58
by lbk000
---

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 04:58
by marsavian
Corsair1963 wrote:
marsavian wrote:
If the military security structure is still intact and in place though they will just get shot again. You have to destroy the military first so people can congregate and riot organically without fear of repression. Destroying the military will also reduce their threat to their immediate neighbors too, win-win. Their Army, Air Force and Navy along with their internal military police have all to be degraded to the point of impotency and this will take considerable time without uniformed boots on the ground until the internal population eventually does the job for you.


What you're talking about is a massive bombing campaign that would "ravage" Iran and kill vast numbers of people! (main civilians) Nor, what I propose would preclude attacking Military Targets later.

As a matter of fact some Military Targets would be attacked under my plan. Mainly, SAM's and Fighters as to crush any opposition to American Strike Aircraft. Yet, Iran is very weak in that department. (especially fighters) So, they wouldn't offer much resistance.....


Massive yes, but precise which is what most US attack hardware is today. Civilian collateral damage would be low in a big country like Iran where military targets are well known and dispersed. You instead would rather take away the population's electricity and means of transport. How are they supposed to rebel if you leave them so helpless and isolated so that day to day survival and living takes precedence ?

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 05:24
by Corsair1963
magitsu wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:So, you think those countries are going to side with Iran and provide them aid or even help they directly against the US... :doh:

No, but as I mentioned goodwill would be burned because they would suffer more than the US for a decision they currently have no say in.

It's more interesting how Trump would try to use the fact that China would suffer more. Take a peek, it's a good article with few interesting scenarios in this regard. https://www.cnas.org/publications/repor ... re-straits


Iran wouldn't last a week against the US and yes her Allies. These scenarios of Iran attacking Tankers and launching endless Missile Attacks are more fiction than anything else. As the second a conflict broke out the US would "massively" retaliate against the Armed Forces of Iran! Which, they have been training to do for decades now.

As the US has total Air and Sea Superiority! All within reach of Iran from Air Bases across the Gulf and from Carriers. Also, while Iran does have a sizable Army. They really have no way to get them in play. They would just set back and get decimated by American Air Power.

Nor, would China have any reason to get involved. As she is in no military position to change the outcome. Yet, would pay a very high price for such involvement.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 05:40
by zhangmdev
marsavian wrote:
... instead would rather take away the population's electricity and means of transport. How are they supposed to rebel if you leave them so helpless and isolated so that day to day survival and living takes precedence ?


That is basically what Israel did to Gaza, and Saudi did to Yemen. At best that will check their adventurous behavior for a while. Like Hamas and Houthi, Iran is just a proxy of greater powers, no way it will be defeated by a limited air war.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 05:50
by Corsair1963
zhangmdev wrote:
marsavian wrote:
... instead would rather take away the population's electricity and means of transport. How are they supposed to rebel if you leave them so helpless and isolated so that day to day survival and living takes precedence ?


That is basically what Israel did to Gaza, and Saudi did to Yemen. At best that will check their adventurous behavior for a while. Like Hamas and Houthi, Iran is just a proxy of greater powers, no way it will be defeated by a limited air war.


How long you think the current and unpopular Iranian Government. Is going to survive when the population has no power??? This alone would shut down the country in quick order...

Trust me Iran can be beaten....

BTW How is targeting and attacking all of the countries power plants, bridges, and oil facilities. Along with air defense sites that would protect them. As being a limited air war....
:|

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 06:08
by magitsu
Sounds like George W's Mission Accomplished type of victory.

Some recent sobering self-examination:
"The inability of Americans to conceive that people in other countries might still feel the strong tug of patriotism, despite not always liking their government in certain respects, can be a major blind spot." https://twitter.com/prchovanec/status/1 ... 1512504321

From the previous CNAS link:
"In the aftermath of a conflict, the United States would likely be forced to maintain a significant air and naval presence in the Persian Gulf in perpetuity, undermining efforts to refocus American military power on great power competition with China and Russia and costing the US taxpayers billions."

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 06:13
by Corsair1963
magitsu wrote:Sounds like George W's Mission Accomplished type of victory.

Some recent sobering self-examination:
"The inability of Americans to conceive that people in other countries might still feel the strong tug of patriotism, despite not always liking their government in certain respects, can be a major blind spot." https://twitter.com/prchovanec/status/1 ... 1512504321

From the previous CNAS link:
"In the aftermath of a conflict, the United States would likely be forced to maintain a significant air and naval presence in the Persian Gulf in perpetuity, undermining efforts to refocus American military power on great power competition with China and Russia and costing the US taxpayers billions."


Clearly, the US and much of the Free World. Would rather not be in the current position. Yet, Iran has made that impossible....

Many are to the point. To end this once and for all.....

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 06:30
by Corsair1963
Former Israeli ambassador: Iran must be confronted


While denounced by many as a dangerous escalation of tensions that could lead to war, the killing of Iran's Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani was welcomed in Israel and throughout the Middle East. Justice was done for the thousands of people killed under Soleimani's command, and he helped prop up Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, which was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians. Following a period of non-response to Iranian attacks and provocations, American deterrence was restored. Israelis say this knowing full well that the Iranian regime is almost certain to seek revenge and that its first target could be Israel.

No one in Israel wants war. Predictions for the next conflict are apocalyptic: our cities and towns targeted by thousands of rockets daily, our forces compelled to fight in heavily-populated areas where Iran and its proxies have hidden their missiles, and Israel once again condemned for supposed war crimes.

"It must be known and recognized that in the next war ... heavy fire will be directed against our home front," Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. General Aviv Kochavi said last week in a speech that addressed Iran's growing threat. "We have to prepare for this militarily ... and we have to prepare for this mentally."

Yet, despite the agonizing costs of war, Israelis across the political spectrum are united on the need to confront Iran. Israelis support the efforts of our armed forces to prevent the Iranian military buildup around us. The goal is to break the entrenchment of Iran and its proxies around our borders before the Islamic Republic can produce nuclear bombs. For Israel and much of the Arab world, the countdown to war began not with Friday's assassination of Soleimani, but five years ago, with the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Iran nuclear deal.

Signed with the hope of strengthening Iranian moderates and transforming the Islamic Republic into a responsible regional power, the JCPOA had exactly the opposite effect. Enriched and legitimized by the deal, Iran deepened its hegemony over Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, and provided long-range missiles to its proxies in Gaza and Yemen.

As long as Tehran complied with the JCPOA, the world raised no objection to the ethnic cleansing of Syrian Sunnis by Iran's Shiite militiamen from as far away as Pakistan and Afghanistan. And it emboldened Iran to try to expand Hezbollah's arsenal of some 130,000 rockets to include cruise missiles capable of hitting Israel's critical infrastructure and airfields. Finally, Iran took the unprecedented step of stationing troops in Syria and elsewhere...............

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/04/opinions ... index.html

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 07:29
by marsavian
Corsair1963 wrote:
magitsu wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:So, you think those countries are going to side with Iran and provide them aid or even help they directly against the US... :doh:

No, but as I mentioned goodwill would be burned because they would suffer more than the US for a decision they currently have no say in.

It's more interesting how Trump would try to use the fact that China would suffer more. Take a peek, it's a good article with few interesting scenarios in this regard. https://www.cnas.org/publications/repor ... re-straits


Iran wouldn't last a week against the US and yes her Allies. These scenarios of Iran attacking Tankers and launching endless Missile Attacks are more fiction than anything else. As the second a conflict broke out the US would "massively" retaliate against the Armed Forces of Iran! Which, they have been training to do for decades now.

As the US has total Air and Sea Superiority! All within reach of Iran from Air Bases across the Gulf and from Carriers. Also, while Iran does have a sizable Army. They really have no way to get them in play. They would just set back and get decimated by American Air Power.

Nor, would China have any reason to get involved. As she is in no military position to change the outcome. Yet, would pay a very high price for such involvement.


Not total Air superiority. Iran has considerable number of relatively modern ballistic and cruise missiles that might create some havoc at first until they are defeated or expended. Look at what only a few did to Saudi refinery. I admire your optimism but air power alone will take a lot more than a week to defang Iran's offensive potential but I would love to be proved wrong. They also have a fair amount of SAMs including their own design which will need taking out first.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 07:48
by steve2267
As the OP, and not wanting to see this thread get summarily locked...

How do you see the F-35 being employed? Tactically? Strategically ala the way F-117's were used in '91 against Iraq?

If regime change is the goal... I think accomplishing that solely via air power is probably a fools errand. Probably need someone on the ground to organize and lead the Iranians. Sounds like the Green Beret's bailiwick. SEALS / Delta / Marsoc maybe as roving strike elements. JTACs could figure big. Does Air Force SpecOps feature JTACs? Or are JTACs Army / Marine / Navy (SEAL) only?

Some pretty cool stuff has been accomplished between JTACs & F-35s. I want to say F-35 SAR mapping -> JTAC marks targets on SAR -> digital transmission to F-35 has been demonstrated and trained. That IR pointer upgrade would sure come in handy, but that is a Block IV thing, right? Probably a couple years away yet... unless it is more of a software thing and could possibly be pushed out in the next rolling update.

It's too bad there are no ISR UAVs with F-35 sensor integration and fusion of RF / EO / IR spectrums. Being able to throw a net over a battlespace with drones, then utilize F-35's as roving hunter/killers could prove particularly effective. An air-to-air radar capabilility in such UAVs would be particularly useful in finding & fixing mobile rocket / ballistic missile launchers & sites.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 08:07
by marsavian
The F-35 will be used in all ways when this kicks off, as bombers, as fighters, as interceptors, as EW support, as ISR etc etc. Probably will be the glue for the whole air campaign as there is now enough of them to make a material difference to the performance of the whole air force compared to previous gulf air campaigns.

p.s. when this kicks off a new thread (with a more relevant title) would be more appropriate in the Military Aviation/Air Power forum as no doubt a lot more than F-35 will be used.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 09:10
by Corsair1963
steve2267 wrote:As the OP, and not wanting to see this thread get summarily locked...

How do you see the F-35 being employed? Tactically? Strategically ala the way F-117's were used in '91 against Iraq?

If regime change is the goal... I think accomplishing that solely via air power is probably a fools errand. Probably need someone on the ground to organize and lead the Iranians. Sounds like the Green Beret's bailiwick. SEALS / Delta / Marsoc maybe as roving strike elements. JTACs could figure big. Does Air Force SpecOps feature JTACs? Or are JTACs Army / Marine / Navy (SEAL) only?

Some pretty cool stuff has been accomplished between JTACs & F-35s. I want to say F-35 SAR mapping -> JTAC marks targets on SAR -> digital transmission to F-35 has been demonstrated and trained. That IR pointer upgrade would sure come in handy, but that is a Block IV thing, right? Probably a couple years away yet... unless it is more of a software thing and could possibly be pushed out in the next rolling update.

It's too bad there are no ISR UAVs with F-35 sensor integration and fusion of RF / EO / IR spectrums. Being able to throw a net over a battlespace with drones, then utilize F-35's as roving hunter/killers could prove particularly effective. An air-to-air radar capabilility in such UAVs would be particularly useful in finding & fixing mobile rocket / ballistic missile launchers & sites.


The F-35's would be used to take out the SAM's of course. Then the US could attack other targets at will with little threat from Iranian Air Defenses. Of course other assets would be used in addition to the F-35's.

Also, my point is to force the overthrow of the current Iranian Government. Which, is currently fighting considerable internal opposition.....

As everyday goes on more and more of Iran's infrastructure would be destroyed. The longer this goes on the harder the eventual recovery. While, the Iranian Government is "powerless" to stop it...

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 09:39
by milosh
Destroying Iran's infrastructure would close Hormuz and probable destroy some oil plants of Saudis and Emirates if not all. This would lead to huge oil price jump and economical depression. Only benefits would have countries which live from oil export, like Russia.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 09:46
by Corsair1963
milosh wrote:Destroying Iran's infrastructure would close Hormuz and probable destroy some oil plants of Saudis and Emirates if not all. This would lead to huge oil price jump and economical depression. Only benefits would have countries which live from oil export, like Russia.



Iran has no hope of closing the Strait of Hormuz. (laughable) The USN 5th Fleet would "easily" crush the Iranian Navy in a day or two. Nor, is Iran likely to put the Saudi Oil field out of action for long. Yet, Iran would be powerless to stop continued attacks from the US and her Allies. Especially, Gulf States that must defeat Iran. Once the shooting starts.....

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 12:06
by milosh
Corsair1963 wrote:
milosh wrote:Destroying Iran's infrastructure would close Hormuz and probable destroy some oil plants of Saudis and Emirates if not all. This would lead to huge oil price jump and economical depression. Only benefits would have countries which live from oil export, like Russia.



Iran has no hope of closing the Strait of Hormuz. (laughable) The USN 5th Fleet would "easily" crush the Iranian Navy in a day or two. Nor, is Iran likely to put the Saudi Oil field out of action for long. Yet, Iran would be powerless to stop continued attacks from the US and her Allies. Especially, Gulf States that must defeat Iran. Once the shooting starts.....


But they don't need to use navy at all. Strait is quite narrow in some places 40km narrow you can use artillery or even better MLRS to hit ships.

In 1980s Iran didn't have artillery/mlrs capable for that and USN back then had ships which would be imune on such attacks, BBs and some older cruisers.

Minesweeping capability of USN today is joke compared to 1980s. Fleet of minesweepers is halfed and most are in bad condition, upgrades to counter modern mines didn't happen.

So Iran could use modern mines which they make.

They could even use land launch torpedos.

Back to geopolitics, Trump said US will leave Iraq if Iraq pay for US base there.

Okey Iraq pay for base then rent base to Chinese and Russians. Chinese and Russians will achieved what US feared during whole cold war, Soviets in Gulf.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 13:48
by aw2007
Iran has to be incredibly stupid to start an all out armed conflict with Uncle Sam. Think of a mediocre welterweight
fighter takes on Mike Tyson at his prime, gloves off. Get the picture ?

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 13:56
by madrat
If the US withdraws from Iraq it will split in three, maybe four. The US is the glue ATM. We cannot allow the Iraqi Kurds and Sunni to get slaughtered by the one large Iranian-dominated Shia group in the south aligned with the several Shia groups in the northern two-thirds of the country. Let us not forget the Iranians and 60% share religion, but not racial ethnicity. Mining the strait would be the biggest screw job on the Shia in the south, so it can't be popular. The alignment at the moment is fragile. You might see Iraq-dominated Shia swoop into Iran if there is a regime collapse in Tehran. Nobody in the White House wants to break the current balance.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 14:00
by vilters
Strange that so many people still think about a war with armies and guns as if time stopped in WW2 or Vietnam.

Modern wars are fought behind computers and they hurt where it counts; Your wallet.

Iran and the US are on opposite sites of the world, but a computer signal is only nanoseconds away from your doorstep.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 20:14
by charlielima223
vilters wrote:Strange that so many people still think about a war with armies and guns as if time stopped in WW2 or Vietnam.

Modern wars are fought behind computers and they hurt where it counts; Your wallet.

Iran and the US are on opposite sites of the world, but a computer signal is only nanoseconds away from your doorstep.


Too true. Iran knows they cannot defeat the US and her allies kinetically so they will go through other means... either through their terrorist proxies and through cyber.

https://theaviationist.com/2020/01/05/i ... lear-deal/
A series of low-level cyber-attacks on U.S. government websites over the weekend may be the beginning of Iran’s threatened retaliation for the death of General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a U.S. remotely piloted aircraft strike while he visited Iraq last week.
***
The Federal Depository Library at http://www.fdlp.gov was offline as of Sunday, January 5, 2020 at 1500 local time in the Midwestern U.S. The website home page showed a message that said, “ERROR 521: Web Server is Down”. Some media reports, including CBS and CNN, reported that the website briefly displayed anti-American messages, including a defaced photo of U.S. President Donald Trump and an Iranian flag. The images are no longer visible in the U.S. on the Federal Depository Library website, only the error message as the website remains offline.


The US military and other state security agencies have been making attempts to bolster their capabilities in recent years in light of Chinese, Russian, and other hacking attempts.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 20:15
by milosh
Corsair1963 wrote:Nor, would China have any reason to get involved. As she is in no military position to change the outcome. Yet, would pay a very high price for such involvement.


In fact China have lot reasons to get involved but as mediator. Last thing China need is huge oil price so they will have interest things don't go south. Also China could be solution in this situation. US troops leave Iraq and Chinese troops arrive, they bought US base. So Chinese could control Sunnis and Shias not to start war in Iraq and they can guarantied Iran defense if Iran destroy its nuclear program, China could provide reactors and fuel to Iran which would force Iran to be clear with its nuclear ambitions.

But US need to accept China as new global player which with Doni's politics is not possible.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 20:20
by steve2267
milosh wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:Nor, would China have any reason to get involved. As she is in no military position to change the outcome. Yet, would pay a very high price for such involvement.


In fact China have lot reasons to get involved but as mediator. Last thing China need is huge oil price so they will have interest things don't go south. Also China could be solution in this situation. US troops leave Iraq and Chinese troops arrive, they bought US base. So Chinese could control Sunnis and Shias not to start war in Iraq and they can guarantied Iran defense if Iran destroy its nuclear program, China could provide reactors and fuel to Iran which would force Iran to be clear with its nuclear ambitions.

But US need to accept China as new global player which with Doni's politics is not possible.


China already has the corner on many precious metals necessary for electronics manufacturing. I doubt it would fly to well to leave the fox in charge of the hen (oil) coup.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 20:43
by milosh
steve2267 wrote:China already has the corner on many precious metals necessary for electronics manufacturing. I doubt it would fly to well to leave the fox in charge of the hen (oil) coup.


Rare earth aren't so rare, only reason why Chinese have monopoly is investment in mining, west closed almost all mines because mining was expensive and bad for ecology. So it isn't some Chinese cunning plan it is what west did to itself and even now west could change that if they start mining rare earths again. But they don't want. They want to buy them from China and when China use its monopoly then west act as Calimero:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aifjtNHkvIM

Chinese are best option because they can force Iran and Saudi to act as grown ups. They buy oil from both countries. US don't buy oil from either country. So Chinese have in fact bigger leverage over both countries then US.

US have no leverage over Iran, and Saudis are ones how own USA :D

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 20:47
by steve2267
:doh:

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 21:04
by milosh
steve2267 wrote::doh:


You can check about rare earths, what I wrote is fact.

About Gulf I gave solution which is best for world but Murica isn't ready for that (as we seen in your reaction to that proposal) so it would be war and as pmi wrote boots on ground would be needed in the end. Iraq war costs were huge in money and lives and Iraq is kindergarten compared to Iran (and that is without any help from Russia and China, be sure both countries will not miss chance to have second Vietnam), just look relief of Iran and compare it with Iraq. Iraq was ideal for invasion, Iran is nightmare.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 22:11
by steve2267
Last time I checked, there are many other nations in the Far East that are also quite dependent on Middle Eastern oil. China is already laying (many would say illegal) claim to the South China Sea what with their "island building." Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, South Korea would be none too pleased to put China in a position to control all the oil coming out of the Persian Gulf.

It's not just 'Murica.

If China was not so belligerent and bullying, got along great with the rest of the world and everyone liked her, then perhaps your idea has merit. But China IS a bully, and a big one.

IMO your "solution" is a non-starter.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 06 Jan 2020, 23:08
by milosh
steve2267 wrote:Last time I checked, there are many other nations in the Far East that are also quite dependent on Middle Eastern oil. China is already laying (many would say illegal) claim to the South China Sea what with their "island building." Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, South Korea would be none too pleased to put China in a position to control all the oil coming out of the Persian Gulf.

It's not just 'Murica.

If China was not so belligerent and bullying, got along great with the rest of the world and everyone liked her, then perhaps your idea has merit. But China IS a bully, and a big one.

IMO your "solution" is a non-starter.


US leave Iraq, Iraq call Chinese to Iraq and what others can do? Also why would that mean controling of gulf oil? Chinese navy is small to control world oil routes.

But with Chinese in Iraq you have deescalation, China can offered protection to Iran but only if Iran stop its nuclear program.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 02:12
by magitsu
Well, that didn't take long: "Iraq’s Prime Minister Adil Abdul al-Mahdi receives China’s ambassador to Iraq, Zhang Tao conveyed Beijing’s readiness to provide military assistance." https://twitter.com/rudawenglish/status ... 86853?s=21

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 02:18
by Corsair1963
milosh wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:Nor, would China have any reason to get involved. As she is in no military position to change the outcome. Yet, would pay a very high price for such involvement.


In fact China have lot reasons to get involved but as mediator. Last thing China need is huge oil price so they will have interest things don't go south. Also China could be solution in this situation. US troops leave Iraq and Chinese troops arrive, they bought US base. So Chinese could control Sunnis and Shias not to start war in Iraq and they can guarantied Iran defense if Iran destroy its nuclear program, China could provide reactors and fuel to Iran which would force Iran to be clear with its nuclear ambitions.

But US need to accept China as new global player which with Doni's politics is not possible.


Absurd the US isn't going to leave the Middle East. While, China moves it......... :doh:


BTW The US is still the worlds only global "Super Power". China is in no position to challenge it today or in the near future.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 02:19
by marsavian
steve2267 wrote:I am not seeing anything in open sources about THAAD having been deployed to the Gulf region. THAAD was deployed to Deveselu in southern Romania over the summer of 2019 while Aegis Ashore was down for maintenance. I presume that THAAD unit has returned to Texas by now.

Aegis Ashore has been deployed (installed?) in Romania and in Poland. Poland was slated for Aegis in 2018, but some articles I found suggest it is not yet operational in Poland?

I recall the US Navy NICS test where an F-35 cued / guided an Aegis intercept at White Sands New Mexico. Was that only an aircraft target though?

Patriot PAC-3 seems to be deployed by multiple nation-states along the Persian Gulf. I do not know how many US PAC-3 deployments there are up and down the Persian Gulf. PAC-3 is supposed to be able to receive track information via Link-16, or at least search cueing from Link-16.

Has F-35 been used to successfully test actual ABM intercepts in tests? Is it operational? Or is the F-35 cueing air defenses operational, or still a notional Block 4 capability? Is F-35 cueing of PAC-3 via Link-16 operational yet?


UAE alone has THAAD operational (SA system on order) as well as PAC-3 which Kuwait and Qatar also have. The US has PAC-2/3 in Bahrain, UAE, SA, Qatar and Kuwait as well as an AN/TPY-2 in Qatar. I suspect these US bases will become the initial front line of conflict and all these Gulf countries could then be drawn into the conflict as a result of their territory being attacked. Could spiral into a regional war pretty quickly after then.

https://www.thenational.ae/world/gcc/pe ... m-1.833568

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pol ... iddle-east

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 02:30
by Corsair1963
vilters wrote:Strange that so many people still think about a war with armies and guns as if time stopped in WW2 or Vietnam.

Modern wars are fought behind computers and they hurt where it counts; Your wallet.

Iran and the US are on opposite sites of the world, but a computer signal is only nanoseconds away from your doorstep.


Conflicts today can come from many different plains and from many different directions. So, while Cyber Warfare and Terrorism are both new and deadly threats. It would be just as unwise to ignore more conventional threats too!

Honestly, future conflicts are likely to encompass them all... :shock:

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 02:48
by Corsair1963
marsavian wrote:
UAE alone has THAAD operational (SA system on order) as well as PAC-3 which Kuwait and Qatar also have. The US has PAC-2/3 in Bahrain, UAE, SA, Qatar and Kuwait as well as an AN/TPY-2 in Qatar. I suspect these US bases will become the initial front line of conflict and all these Gulf countries could then be drawn into the conflict as a result of their territory being attacked. Could spiral into a regional war pretty quickly after then.


Those would be pretty hard targets for Iran. Plus, they would only get one shot at it. So, hard to see them committing to an all out attack on such targets. Then besides retaliation from the US. They likely would suffer similar counter-attacks from those very same nations. Which, over the last decade have purchased. The best Military Hardware money can buy....

Iran on the other hand. Has an Air Force made up of F-4's, F-5's, F-14's, and Mig-29's. In very modest number to boot.

This talk that Iran is the "massive" threat isn't supported with any real facts....

Odds are Iran will strike thru a 3rd party at a soft target. Which, could even be a third party. Hoping the US won't retaliate with a massive counter-strike in return.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 02:49
by spazsinbad
'Corsair1963' said: "Conflicts today can come from many different plains and from many different directions. So, while Cyber Warfare and Terrorism are both new and deadly threats. It would be just as unwise to ignore more conventional threats too! Honestly, future conflicts are likely to encompass them all... :shock:

and SPACE!

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 03:28
by Corsair1963
spazsinbad wrote:
'Corsair1963' said: "Conflicts today can come from many different plains and from many different directions. So, while Cyber Warfare and Terrorism are both new and deadly threats. It would be just as unwise to ignore more conventional threats too! Honestly, future conflicts are likely to encompass them all... :shock:

and SPACE!



GOOD POINT.... 8)

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 08:06
by marsavian
Pentagon Deploys Six B-52s To Diego Garcia Beyond The Reach Of Iran's Ballistic Missiles

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/3 ... c-missiles

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Although RAF Fairfield in UK (periodic home to US bombers) is about the same distance to Iran the other way

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50511847

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Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 08:18
by marsavian
Weeping Khamenei shows Soleimani’s death is personal

https://www.timesofisrael.com/weeping-k ... -personal/

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Like an article I read said he was their equivalent of General Patton so expect a lot of reckless irrational emotional military actions when they decide to go for it.

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/154207/Sol ... e-missiles
https://ifpnews.com/even-killing-trump- ... imani-irgc
https://ifpnews.com/iran-us-forces-regi ... irgc-teeth

“Martry Soleimani’s revenge will not end by launching four missiles or targeting a [US] base or even by killing Trump; I mean none of these have the same value as the blood of this martyr,” Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh told reporters on Monday before the start of the funeral ceremony of assassinated Lt. Gen. Soleimani in Tehran.

“The only thing that can compensate the blood of this martyr is the complete destruction of America in the region,” he highlighted.

The remarks come as millions of Iranians have unprecedentedly gathered in Tehran to commemorate their General who was assassinated by US terrorist forces on Friday in Iraq.

Iran has vowed ‘hard revenge’ in ‘due time and right place’ over Washington’s act of terror.


They are ultra confident in their missile force openly discussing attack plans on TV ! ...

https://youtu.be/jCLE12-4PX8


Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 08:40
by milosh
Corsair1963 wrote:
milosh wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:Nor, would China have any reason to get involved. As she is in no military position to change the outcome. Yet, would pay a very high price for such involvement.


In fact China have lot reasons to get involved but as mediator. Last thing China need is huge oil price so they will have interest things don't go south. Also China could be solution in this situation. US troops leave Iraq and Chinese troops arrive, they bought US base. So Chinese could control Sunnis and Shias not to start war in Iraq and they can guarantied Iran defense if Iran destroy its nuclear program, China could provide reactors and fuel to Iran which would force Iran to be clear with its nuclear ambitions.

But US need to accept China as new global player which with Doni's politics is not possible.


Absurd the US isn't going to leave the Middle East. While, China moves it......... :doh:


BTW The US is still the worlds only global "Super Power". China is in no position to challenge it today or in the near future.


Well US will need to leave Iraq if Iraq demand that, even Trump agree on that but he want compensation:
https://www.msnbc.com/katy-tur/watch/tr ... 6138053651

After US troops leave Iraq can call anyone. Chinese, Russians, Martians. US doesn't need to leave Gulf they can relocate troops in S.Arabia, yes it is very problematic because of wahhabists but if you think that is what US need to do in 2001, 15 of 19 highjackers were Saudis non was Iranian or Iraqi.

China of course can't match US global status so I don't see why you even mentioned that at all.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 08:56
by marsavian
Iraqi Shiite militia chiefs redeployed to Syria as well as Iran. Hizballah disbands Bekaa strike bases

https://www.debka.com/__trashed-13/

Iran’s threats of revenge for Qassem Soleimani’s death were coupled on Sunday, Jan. 5, with practical preparations for action. DEBKAfile’s exclusive sources report that after most of the Iraqi Shiite militia leaders and their senior staff were transferred on Friday and Saturday to Iran, on Sunday, Tehran’s preparations for striking US targets extended to Syria and Lebanon. Our sources reveal the four steps Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corp IRGC) have set in motion for their coming retaliatory operations against US targets:

With their commanders out of the country, the pro-Iran Iraqi Shiite militias are shuttering their command posts and bases in the main cities and the fighters are going to ground with their weapons among civilian populations.

The militia chiefs who were not sent to Iran in the first wave of evacuations to Iran are redeploying in Syria in areas under Assad government control.

Their command centers and bases in Syria are being dispersed and hooking up with their chiefs in those areas.

The Lebanese Hizballah militia has also begun shutting down the Bekaa Valley bases of its strike mechanism, under the command of Talal Hamiyah This mechanism has the formal title of Hizballah’s “External Security Organization.” Three years ago, the US offered a $7m reward for information leading to the capture of Talal Hamiyah.

DEBKAfile’s military and counterterrorism analysts note that the evacuation of Hizballah’s main intelligence and terrorism centers in the Bekaa Valley of eastern Lebanon is a strong pointer to Tehran’s plans of attack against US forces covering points in and outside Iraq, including the Gulf region and beyond. Hizballah’s external arm runs terrorist and sabotage networks in all the Gulf emirates as well as North, East and West Africa. The first sign of trouble came on Sunday night, with shelling and rocket attacks on US forces in the Green Zone of Baghdad and the oil region of eastern Syria.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 09:20
by marsavian
Royal Navy nuclear-powered submarine with Tomahawk missiles 'in position to fire at Iran'

The 20ft Tomahawk missiles carry a 1,000lb high-explosive warhead with the power to destroy a building, and have a range of more than 1,550 miles.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10672217/ ... -iran-war/

While the world held its breath for Iran’s next move, senior defence sources revealed that an Astute class hunter-killer sub was sat silently in range of Iranian targets.

An insider said: “There will be no first strike, but every precaution is being made, depending on how Iran reacts to the death of Soleimani.

“If things unravel quickly, the UK will always stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the US. The hunter-killers are the most advanced submarines in the Royal Navy. They are a deadly asset and there is one well within range of Iran.”

The Navy keeps an attack sub in the region at all times. The crew would just need to manoeuvre into a “firing pocket” and unleash the missiles. The 20ft Tomahawk missile carries a 1,000lb high-explosive warhead with the power to destroy a building. It has a range of more than 1,550 miles, travels at more than 550mph and has a GPS guidance system allowing it to switch targets mid-flight. They are often first choice for an initial strike before a major offensive.

US “monster” sub-USS Florida is also certain to be in reach of Iran after leaving Gibraltar days ago. Also nuclear-powered, it can carry 154 cruise missiles.


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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Florida_(SSGN-728)

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Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 09:23
by weasel1962
Doubt there will be a war with Iran.

Kim Jong Il assassinated his brother in Malaysia. Saudis assassinated Khashoggi in Turkey. Russian poisoned their ex-agent in the UK. So what the US did in bombing Soleimani isn’t exactly radical. I would guess the more likely Iranian response would be increased Iranian funding of terror cells outside the US particularly targeting US diplomatic and military personnel. State department would probably be freaking out over the increased levels of security vis budget cuts. So too the secret service (they need to protect Trump for life). Likely to hamper diplomatic activities particularly in less secure countries e.g. Africa.

Iran has been targeting Iraq for years esp as the majority are Shia/Shiite. Saddam was placed in power to keep the Sunnis in power but with the removal of Saddam, its has always been a risk that Iraqi power would revert to the Shia majority. The Shiites have managed to bring down the former PM and are now hoping to install a pro-Iran PM. With the killing of Al-Muhandis (rather than Soleimani), that has made that more likely. The biggest gain for the Iranians would be to deny Iraqi airspace from Allied use (particularly Israel who would otherwise have direct route to Tehran)

The pullout from Kurdistan may have been a ploy to keep Iraq (and potentially Turkey) onside but if Iraq goes “Iranian”, then keeping Kurdistan could have been a consolation and a way to keep Iraq’s attention away from other issues. However, that is also now more difficult with the pullout.

Ironically, whilst Trump wants to keep Turkey onside, Congress seems to be doing everything they can to push Turkey away.

Personally, I read the Soleimani & Muhandis assassination as a validation that Iraq is lost. One doesn’t bomb Iraqis much less the Iraqi head of a highly influential militia if the intent is still to fight for Iraqi influence. Now not even the Sunnis will stand up publicly for the US (even if they still want to).

Iran doesn’t gain anything from a conventional war. However, they can gain (and having been gaining) a lot more influence by stirring up trouble e.g. Yemen against the Saudis. Qatar’s blockade etc. There will be much more sympathy across the Arab world who already have a pre-disposition to see US in a negative light. Will tweets about bombing cultural heritage sites change Arabic minds or reinforce perceptions?

P.s. Khomeini – crocodile tears.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 11:01
by Corsair1963
You could very well be right. Yet, this time it has a very different feel to it....

Regardless, the next move is up to Iran.... :?

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 12:21
by ricnunes
Corsair1963 wrote:
vilters wrote:Strange that so many people still think about a war with armies and guns as if time stopped in WW2 or Vietnam.

Modern wars are fought behind computers and they hurt where it counts; Your wallet.

Iran and the US are on opposite sites of the world, but a computer signal is only nanoseconds away from your doorstep.


Conflicts today can come from many different plains and from many different directions. So, while Cyber Warfare and Terrorism are both new and deadly threats. It would be just as unwise to ignore more conventional threats too!

Honestly, future conflicts are likely to encompass them all... :shock:



Absolutely!

One have to remember why "Terrorism" and "Cyber Warfare" are 'tactics' which are so much "in vogue" nowadays specially against the west:
- Because the west (namely US) is so much more powerful and advanced in terms of conventional military forces which means that the only option for the other/opposing sides to seriously hurt the west is thru such tactics!

But "rest assured" (figure of speech) that once the level of forces between the west and its opposing sides/parties starts to get even - and this is not a matter of 'if' but instead of 'when' (and this could happen sooner than expected due to defense funding cuts and bleak economics in the west) - that conventional wars will inevitably (and unfortunately) return!

Actually, this always have been the case thought the history of warfare.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 15:52
by marsavian
How a ‘quantum change’ in missiles has made Iran a far more dangerous foe

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

When a swarm of drones and cruise missiles attacked Saudi Arabia’s biggest oil facility on Sept. 14, an outraged Trump administration quickly blamed Iran for what it called an “unprecedented attack” on global energy supplies. But the real surprise was the strike’s accuracy: Of 19 weapons used, all but two scored direct hits.

When the smoke cleared, Saudi officials counted 14 holes where incoming projectiles had sliced through petroleum storage tanks. Three other critical parts of the oil-processing facility had been hit and disabled, shutting down the facility and temporarily cutting Saudi oil production in half.

In subsequent reports, U.S. analysts would describe the attack as a kind of wake-up call: evidence of a vastly improved arsenal of high-precision missiles that Iran has quietly developed and shared with allies over the past decade. In the event of a wider war with the United States, Iran would probably deploy such weapons to inflict substantial damage on any number of targets, from U.S. military bases to oil facilities to sites in Israel, analysts say.

Iran’s improved missile capability is the result of changes ordered more than a decade ago by the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. At the time, Tehran’s most sophisticated missiles were derivatives of the Soviet-era Scuds that Iran and Iraq fired at each other’s cities in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war. Since then, the country’s military laboratories have funneled millions of dollars into creating guidance systems that would vastly improve the accuracy of new missiles and, through retrofitting, upgrade many older models.

The result is a line of short- and medium-range missiles than can deliver warheads with an accuracy range in the tens of meters, a Defense Department intelligence official said. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive assessments of Iran’s military capability.

“We have observed consistent improvements in Iranian ballistic missile accuracy,” the official said. Among the more striking and potentially worrisome developments is technology on Iran’s 500-mile Qiam missile that allows controllers to fine-tune its trajectory during flight. Even the Fateh-110, a short-range model provided to Hezbollah and other militant groups, has been refitted with electro-optical and radio-guidance systems so that it can zero in on highly specific targets, the official said.

The Sept. 14 strike on two Saudi Aramco oil facilities used armed drones and cruise missiles that are both highly maneuverable and difficult to stop with antimissile batteries. Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for that attack, although U.S. analysts later concluded that the missiles and drones were launched from southern Iran. A U.N. investigation was unable to find hard evidence linking the missiles and drones to Iran.

Saudi Arabia’s expensive, U.S.-built missile defense system failed to stop the drone and missile attack, leaving local security forces with no means of defending the facilities other than with small arms.

Gen. Joseph Votel, the former U.S. Centcom commander who retired from the Army in March, said the gains in Iran’s missile capability have been surprisingly rapid.
“We’ve been watching this for a while, with both these drones and with missiles and other things that can actually penetrate defensive systems and get in and hit those sensitive targets,” Votel said an interview with the CTC Sentinel, a publication of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point.

Most disturbing, Votel said, is the “maturation of these systems and how quickly [the Iranians] are learning."
“When you look at our long learning curve here, theirs is much sharper,” he said. “They’re taking advantage of what we have learned.”



The Iranian Missile Threat

https://www.csis.org/analysis/iranian-missile-threat

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 19:39
by marsavian
Iran moving drones, missile batteries as US forces placed on alert:

https://thehill.com/policy/national-sec ... -us-forces
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/07/poli ... index.html

Iran is moving some drones and missile batteries as U.S. forces were placed on high alert Monday night, CNN reported.

U.S. forces and air-defense missile batteries in the Middle East were told to monitor for potential Iranian drones after intelligence suggested an attack on U.S. targets, two U.S. officials told CNN.

Intelligence saw Iran moving military equipment, including drones and missiles, over the last several days. U.S. officials told CNN the recent development could mean they are moving them in fear of a potential U.S. strike or they are preparing to conduct their own strike.

An official told the news source that "there were indications that we needed to monitor the threats" more closely than at current levels. Another said the situation required "all Patriot batteries and forces in the area [to be] on high alert" against an "imminent attack threat."

The U.S. is preparing for strikes in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan based on intelligence, CNN reported, and the U.S. Maritime Administration has cautioned commercial ships in the Middle East about potential “Iranian action against U.S. maritime interests in the region.”

Iran has used missiles on its drones in other attacks, including a prominent strike at two Saudi oil refineries last year.


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Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 20:03
by madrat
The problem is the permissive border between the two countries. Iraqis may allow them to launch within their border and pretend they didn't see anything.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 07 Jan 2020, 20:09
by marsavian
I also hope all these US bases have AESA equipped fighters on constant CAP around themselves. Airborne radars are better looking down on land hugging cruise missiles than ground based ones looking up.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 01:20
by madrat
It's not SSM's and cruise missiles that offer the greatest challenge.

It is the easy access to RPGs and ATGMs matched to their portability. The Israelis learned to keep space between outer perimeters and the public due to the risk of a point blank attack with pinpoint precision.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 01:27
by marsavian
Iran rains missiles down on US airbases in Iraq in revenge attack

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news ... -bgszvl353.

Iran launched its first retaliation for the assassination of Qasem Soleimani early this morning, hitting a giant US airbase in Iraq with a stream of missiles.

The attack was confirmed by Iranian state television and American security sources. Iran’s Press TV said that “tens” of medium-range missiles had been fired at the Camp Asad base in western Iraq’s Anbar province, though reports from the ground said that it had been hit nine times.

The Revolutionary Guard said it had carried out the operation, codenamed “Martyr Soleimani”, and issued what appeared to be a direct threat to the Iraqi army, which is formally host to American and British troops. “We are warning all American allies who gave their bases to its terrorist army that any territory that is the starting point of aggressive acts against Iran will be targeted,” it said. It also warned the US against retaliating.

A senior official of the Kurdistan Autonomous Region said that missiles had also landed in Arbil, northern Iraq.

The Pentagon said Iran had launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles. “It is clear that these missiles were launched from Iran and targeted at least two Iraqi military bases hosting US military and coalition personnel at Al-Asad and Arbil.”


https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/ ... -province-

Includes video ..

Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has targeted the US airbase of Ain al-Assad in Anbar province in western Iraq after vowing to retaliate the US assassination of top Iranian anti-terror commander, Lt. Gen. Qassem Soleimani.

“Tens of surface-to-surface missiles” were fired at the strategic airbase and the attack was later confirmed by the US officials.

The IRGC has called for a complete withdrawal of US troops from the Arab country, asserting that it would not differentiate between the US and Israel in retaliating against the assassination of the Iranian national hero.

The IRGC added that it would release more details about the strike.

The strike comes as no surprise since Iran had vowed to take a “harsh revenge” in the wake of the US terror attack.

Sirens were reportedly heard and American helicopters flew over the airbase and the total alert was activated.

US President Donald Trump was being briefed about the retaliatory strikes.

"We are aware of the reports of attacks on US facilities in Iraq. The President has been briefed and is monitoring the situation closely and consulting with his national security team," White House spokeswoman Stephanie Grisham said in a statement.

The Pentagon claimed that it would take necessary measures to protect the US military forces amid heightened tensions in the region.

"We are working on initial battle damage assessments," Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman said in statement, adding that the bases targeted were at al-Assad air base and another in Erbil, the capital of Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region.

"At approximately 5.30 pm (2230 GMT) on January 7, Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles against US military and coalition forces in Iraq," Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs Jonathan Hoffman said in a statement. "It is clear that these missiles were launched from Iran and targeted at least two Iraqi military bases hosting US military and coalition personnel at Al-Assad and Irbil."


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Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 01:40
by weasel1962
lol. can never underestimate Persian stupidity. Exactly reminiscent of Saddam. Looks like yet another opportunity to clear inventories of expiring munitions.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 02:26
by madrat
Tehran expects a massive response, because it always comes. They know what the consequences are and they want U.S. retaliation to come from Iraqi, Kuwait, and Saudi territories so that they can tell the world how these governments are helping the Americans.

Iran sees this as the precursor to the Koran's equivalent to the apocalypse. It's almost better to just strike the guy that replaces Solly.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 02:30
by weasel1962
which would be ironic because the SOP is tomahawks from ships/subs, airstrikes from carriers. Worst case for Iran would be B-52s from Diego Garcia.

US could also take the opportunity to clear the gulf of pesky Iranian speedboats.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 02:45
by marsavian
Reports coming in of their proxies now attacking that Iraqi airbase. After the Tomahawks the response will be US bombers day after day pounding their military into eventual dust. Iran and the US just don't respect each other's militaries, that's how wars start, when at least one side thinks it can win.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 02:54
by marsavian
Iran trebles up on the threats

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html

In its Telegram channel, Iranian Revolutionary Guard says the “Pentagon reports that the US will respond to Iran’s attacks.”

IRGC then says in a footnote, “This time we will respond to you in America”

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in its Telegram channel that, in the event Iranian soil is bombed, it will target the cities of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Haifa, Israel, in the third wave of operations.

There are casualties among the Iraqis at Ain al-Asad airbase following the attack early Wednesday local time, an Iraqi security source tells CNN.

At this stage, it is unknown whether those causalities are wounded or killed; also unknown are the numbers of casualties.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 02:59
by weasel1962
Looking at carrier deployments. Truman CSG is in the area. Lincoln is somewhere in the pacific on the way back home. They'd probably push Eisenhower & Stennis into the Med.

I'd expect more USAF & patriot deployments into the area in a mini desert shield. May even see Iron dome?

Iran would also threaten to close the gulf.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 03:06
by count_to_10
I feel like we should be hearing about anti ballistic missile defenses. Am I missing something, or did our forces just let the missiles fall?
Also, no counter strikes on the launch platforms?

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 03:15
by marsavian
I think the Video show smaller missiles rising up to meet the bigger ones although I do wonder if all the US bases have Patriots which would be negligent if some don't. Counter strikes are probably on their way now.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 03:18
by zhangmdev
It is too early, just wait for the nightfall.

Seemingly Iran still wants to limit the scope of conflict by only targeting bases within Iraq.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 03:39
by marsavian
Limiting scope ? Not going to happen, Trump will now use this year to degrade Iran's military to insignificance as it maybe his last year as President. Iran was on his to-do list and they now have given him the excuse to unleash the combined might of the USAF and USN on it.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 03:46
by weasel1962
Apparently Iran launched 15 missiles, 10 hit Asad airbase, 1 hit Irbil, 4 failed. No US casualties.

Agree on no limiting scope, the hawks are clearly in charge.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 03:55
by marsavian
https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTr ... 3025394693

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 03:56
by madrat
They may be mapping the base responses to plan a more direct land assault in a limited raid on the bases on the next round. And these attacks may come to completely different targets. You can be sure Iran wants to give the origin of the attack on general Solly (pronounced more like Sue Lee) special care. Symbolic attacks are very important to these people. They are the same government that killed off the males in the ,45-55 age bracket trying to relive WW1 trench warfare because it was literally a symbolic gesture.

They will martyr pilots, sailors, and soldiers if that is all they can muster. If they die it's because Allah wills it. Let's restrain ourselves and not fall for the bait if we are given the choice. Announce to the world how Iran is guiding the response.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 04:02
by mmm
Well it may be perceived as being weak if there's not something at least on Praying Mantis scale, but then again if thing don't go well and there's another few dozen casualty there's no telling how this whole affair is going to escalate. And if Iran's really looking for the easiest way to inflict personnel losses they may be able to find it somewhere in the region, through regional proxy, cruise missile attack, other grey zone ops or maybe even indirectly through cyber, etc... 3 decades after Gulf War I every adversary has learned not to fight the kind of war US's good at.

Do something so one can call it even then deescalate is what I see as the more likely option, especially if it turns out there are few or no US death, though it's still too early to tell.

Edit: It would be interesting to know what kind of CEP their ballistic missile achieved.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 04:07
by marsavian
Iran is saying that is it if the US doesn't respond further.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JZarif/statu ... 4217469953

Javad Zarif
@JZarif

Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched.

We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 04:38
by count_to_10
In particular, this seems more like an attack on the host country Iraq than on the US forces there. Maybe with the intent of causing Iraqi casualties and blaming them on the US?

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 04:53
by marsavian
It was purely luck not Iranian design that Iraqis died and Americans didn't. Does give a de-escalation path though for Trump if he wants to take it.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 05:06
by knowan
marsavian wrote:It was purely luck not Iranian design that Iraqis died and Americans didn't. Does give a de-escalation path though for Trump if he wants to take it.


It even allows Trump to come out looking like a peacemaker, neutralising much of the criticism he has received over the Soleimani killing and handling of Iran.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 05:14
by Corsair1963
knowan wrote:
marsavian wrote:It was purely luck not Iranian design that Iraqis died and Americans didn't. Does give a de-escalation path though for Trump if he wants to take it.


It even allows Trump to come out looking like a peacemaker, neutralising much of the criticism he has received over the Soleimani killing and handling of Iran.



ABSURD...........Trump will be forced to "retaliate"! He surely can't let any country attack US Forces and get away with it. Otherwise, he would be opening "Pandora's Box". As that would be an invitation for countries like North Korea, China, and Russia.

That said, if the damage and casualties are extremely light. Then he won't have to hit back hard.....Yet, he will hit back either way!

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 05:16
by marsavian
knowan wrote:
marsavian wrote:It was purely luck not Iranian design that Iraqis died and Americans didn't. Does give a de-escalation path though for Trump if he wants to take it.


It even allows Trump to come out looking like a peacemaker, neutralising much of the criticism he has received over the Soleimani killing and handling of Iran.


Agreed. Last chance before an all out war.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 05:30
by geforcerfx
airliner crashed in Tehran video shows the aircraft crashing on fire, tehran may have shot down a airliner thinking it was military.

also it was a 737 Boeing can't catch a break.

https://twitter.com/carp3/status/1214757516036493312

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 05:35
by marsavian
https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html

US official: Military had early warning of missile attack
From CNN's John Kirby

A US military official has told CNN that the military did have enough early warning of the ballistic missile attack on airbases in Iraq to sound the alarm.

People in harm's way were able to get to bunkers in time, the official said.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 05:36
by knowan
geforcerfx wrote:airliner crashed in Tehran video shows the aircraft crashing on fire, tehran may have shot down a airliner thinking it was military.

also it was a 737 Boeing can't catch a break.

https://twitter.com/carp3/status/1214757516036493312


180 people on board, doesn't look like there's any chance for any survivors. RIP.

Plane is only 3 years old, mechanical failure seems unlikely. It would be one hell of a strange coincidence if it was though.


Corsair1963 wrote:ABSURD...........Trump will be forced to "retaliate"! He surely can't let any country attack US Forces and get away with it. Otherwise, he would be opening "Pandora's Box". As that would be an invitation for countries like North Korea, China, and Russia.

That said, if the damage and casualties are extremely light. Then he won't have to hit back hard.....Yet, he will hit back either way!


Trump didn't retaliate when Iran shot down a RQ-4 Global Hawk, and those aren't exactly cheap. If the damage to US assets is only material, then there is a path to de-escalation.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 05:41
by marsavian
geforcerfx wrote:airliner crashed in Tehran video shows the aircraft crashing on fire, tehran may have shot down a airliner thinking it was military.

also it was a 737 Boeing can't catch a break.

https://twitter.com/carp3/status/1214757516036493312


Looks like missile(s) hitting it.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 05:51
by mmm
Well they have to explain both why no evil Americans are killed and how 737's crashed... :x

Modern airliner don't simply disintegrate and go down in fire normally...

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 05:59
by lbk000
Anyone remember Iran Air 655? When you're expecting stuff to go down everything can start looking like a threat.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 07:16
by Corsair1963
knowan wrote:
Trump didn't retaliate when Iran shot down a RQ-4 Global Hawk, and those aren't exactly cheap. If the damage to US assets is only material, then there is a path to de-escalation.



Shooting down a unmanned drone over the ocean. Is very different that directly attacking an US Military Base. In hopes of killing a large number of "Americans" and possibly coalition forces too!


So, while they didn't succeed their "intent" was to do great "HARM". Yet, according to you. Because they missed we should give them a "free pass"???

:doh:

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 08:27
by zhangmdev
The plane climbed to 7,350 feet about two minutes after takeoff and then telemetry was lost, without declaring an emergency.

https://www.npr.org/2020/01/07/79443062 ... an-airport

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 09:19
by knowan
Corsair1963 wrote:So, while they didn't succeed their "intent" was to do great "HARM". Yet, according to you. Because they missed we should give them a "free pass"???

:doh:


Please don't put words in my mouth; I never said any of that.

What I said is that Trump and the USA could de-escalate the situation. I never said anything about what should or shouldn't be done.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 09:27
by Corsair1963
knowan wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:So, while they didn't succeed their "intent" was to do great "HARM". Yet, according to you. Because they missed we should give them a "free pass"???

:doh:


Please don't put words in my mouth; I never said any of that.

What I said is that Trump and the USA could de-escalate the situation. I never said anything about what should or shouldn't be done.



I stand corrected......

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 10:01
by milosh
Any info about interceptions? I find it strange so many rockets were fired and still no info about number of intercepted rockets? We only got info about early warning detection.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 10:17
by hornetfinn
milosh wrote:Any info about interceptions? I find it strange so many rockets were fired and still no info about number of intercepted rockets? We only got info about early warning detection.


I've seen rather conflicting reports about interceptions. One is that there was no Patriots or similar protecting those two bases. Other is that some of the ballistic missiles against Erbil were intercepted. I'm sure more details will surface soon...

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 10:35
by knowan
Conflicting counts of number of missiles fired; USA is saying 15, Iraq is saying 22, Iran is saying 30 or more.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 10:37
by weasel1962
Ukraine embassy released a statement stating that the probable cause of the 737 crash was engine failure, nothing to do with "terrorism". The list of passengers included 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, 11 Ukrainians, including all the crew, 10 Swedes, 4 Afghans, 3 Germans, 3 Britons.

Not sure why there were so many Canadians onboard. RIP.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 10:57
by knowan
weasel1962 wrote:Ukraine embassy released a statement stating that the probable cause of the 737 crash was engine failure, nothing to do with "terrorism".


They've withdrawn that statement: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... oeing-737/
Initially, Ukraine's embassy in Iran said on Wednesday morning that engine failure caused the plane to crash and denied that it was terror-related or that a rocket had hit the aircraft.

But it later withdrew this statement, saying that anything was possible, and Mr Zelensky instructed Ukraine's prosecutors to open criminal proceedings over the crash.

Having initially said the plane crash was due to engine failure and not foul play, there is now a new statement on the Ukrainian embassy website.

It reads: "A commission is working to clarify the causes of the plane crash. Any statements regarding the causes of the accident prior to the findings of the commission are not official."

The earlier line ruling out terrorism or a rocket attack as possible causes have been removed.



And Ukrainian International Airlines is saying there was nothing wrong with the plane:
Ukrainian International Airlines(UIA) has appeared to bite back at claims its plane came down because of engine failure.

The airline said there was "nothing wrong" with its plane.

It is understood the plane that crashed just outside the Iranian capital last passed a planned technical service just two days ago on Jan 6.

President of UIA Yevgeny Dykhne told a press briefing: "The aircraft was in good condition... We guarantee the serviceability of our aircraft and the high qualification of our crews"

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 12:02
by hornetfinn
I can think of the following potential responses for the USA.

1. Do nothing for now. Possible as the Iranian attack was insignificant really. However I doubt US will do absolutely nothing and think at least some soft response is going to happen.

2. Soft methods. Do some Cyber attacks against Iranian infrastructure or tighten the economic and political sanctions against Iran. I think this is very likely to happen regardless of possible hard military methods.

3. Minor military operation. Maybe destroy some radar sites or ammo depots remote from civilians. Other possibilities could be sinking some of their patrol boats or similar fairly insignificant targets. I think this is likely response along with soft methods. It would not escalate things further and would send a political and military message.

4. Major military operation. Do some serious bombing using cruise missiles and B-2s. Destroy some of their main naval and air bases along with nuclear targets. Shoot down their air force or destroy them on the ground. I doubt this will happen as it would be costly (in $$$) and Iran is already seriously outgunned and making them more outgunned is not changing much. However if USA could take out much of their ballistic missile and cruise missile capability, then it would change things a lot more. They'd lose much of their ability to threaten countries in the area and US forces. I however doubt that even USA could pull that off.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 12:40
by milosh
Al Asad base is ~300km from Iran so if Iran fired missiles near boarder there isn't enough time to get people in shelters which mean US was warned.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 13:00
by marsavian
Noisy impacts on al-Asad base

https://mobile.twitter.com/PressTV/stat ... 3046729728

Surprised no injuries either US or Iraqi and did this base have any Patriots guarding it or was it left to take its chances ?

p.s. Iran apparently refusing to hand over black box of airliner.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 13:03
by hornetfinn
milosh wrote:Al Asad base is ~300km from Iran so if Iran fired missiles near boarder there isn't enough time to get people in shelters which mean US was warned.


It might not be that Iranians themselves warned anybody but that their actions were closely monitored and alert levels raised when appropriate. There were news about Iranian moving their missile launchers and troops couple of days before the attack and I'm sure US military had a close eye constantly. There would be some time (several minutes even with that range) to get to shelters from first warning. Of course the shelters need to be close by and there is not much time to fool around when to sirens go off.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 13:10
by knowan
USA would have had surveillance assets watching Iranian launch sites round the clock for any sign of activity, it is entirely plausible they would have known some minutes before the first launch that an attack was about to take place.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 13:16
by hornetfinn
It seems Iranians did warn Iraqis about the attack and US forces also likely got the warning.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51028954

Iraq's Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said Iran warned him just after midnight local time that an attack was imminent and only areas with US troops would be targeted. There were no reports of Iraqi casualties, he said.


Not sure if that made any difference though as it seems rather vague warning.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 14:00
by sprstdlyscottsmn
I can say from personal experience that a shelter is never more than a several second sprint away. You talk about warning with a 300km rocket? try a <10km mortar. We still had warning for every attack so long as our detection system was up. C-RAM is not half bad either.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 14:12
by zero-one
Iran refuses to hand over the crashed Ukrainian Boeing 737's black box to the embattled manufacturer
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine ... 020-1?IR=T

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 14:44
by milosh
hornetfinn wrote:It seems Iranians did warn Iraqis about the attack and US forces also likely got the warning.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51028954

Iraq's Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said Iran warned him just after midnight local time that an attack was imminent and only areas with US troops would be targeted. There were no reports of Iraqi casualties, he said.


Not sure if that made any difference though as it seems rather vague warning.


Well good enough they are on standby so you can coordinate evacuation to shelters when alarm active. Base have lot of personal so it isn't easy as in some smaller bases.

There was Patriot two years ago I doubt they didn't had it now because situation with Iran escalate in 2019.

Sat photo (on twitter say it is two years old):
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENv0seCW4AAX3v2.jpg

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 16:53
by marsavian
Details emerge of missiles used in attack

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-m ... t-51029181

Iran's Tasnim news agency, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), said Fateh-313 and Qiam missiles were used in the overnight attack on the US's Al Asad air base.

The domestically-made ballistic missiles have a range of 500 km (310 miles) and 800 km, respectively, it said.

Tasnim added that US forces failed to intercept the missiles fired from Iran because they were equipped with cluster warheads, which can disturb the normal performance of anti-missile rockets.

The agency said this allowed the missiles to cause "tens of explosions" in the base.

Former Iranian Defence Minister Hossein Dehqan said in 2013 that the country had developed a "new generation of missiles" equipped with cluster warheads.

A cluster warhead missile contains several warheads, each capable of being aimed at a different target.


Exclusive: US Base in Iraq Hit by Iranian Fragmentation Missiles

https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2020 ... n-missiles

TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Tasnim News Agency has learned that Iran used sophisticated missiles with fragmentation warheads in an attack on the US airbase of Ain al-Assad in Iraq early Wednesday.

According to information obtained by Tasnim, the US missile defense systems in Iraq have failed to intercept any missile that the IRGC Aerospace Force rained down on Ain al-Assad airbase in Anbar province in western Iraq early Wednesday.

In the Iranian attack, launched in retaliation for the US assassination of top Iranian anti-terror commander Lt. General Qassem Soleimani, the IRGC Aerospace Force utilized the Fateh-313 and the Qiam missiles, with a range of 500 km and 800 km, respectively.

The Fateh-313 missiles have such a high velocity that the American defense systems have been unable to intercept any of the projectiles.

Moreover, the Qiam missiles fired in the overnight strike have been equipped with radar jamming systems and fragmentation warheads.


This was the first time that Iran has used such advanced missiles in a combat operation.

In June 2017, the IRGC had utilized Qiam for hitting the ISIS targets in Syria, but the missiles launched in that operation had regular warheads as the targets had been packed in a small area.

The fragmentation warhead in each of the Qiam missiles fired in the Wednesday strike have reportedly caused tens of explosions at the American airbase.

Tasnim has also learned that the IRGC has struck only the Ain al-Assad base in the January 8 attack.

Moreover, all of the Iranian missile units had gone on alert at the time of the operation against the US base in Iraq, and the Americans had been also notified that any reaction to the strike would have sparked a very harsh response from Tehran.



Missiles of Iran

https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/iran/


Image

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 17:39
by knowan
Trump just made a national address, no Americans or Iraqis injured or killed, damage to the bases was minimal.

Doesn't sound like he's ordering military retaliation; he's talking about sanctions instead.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 17:58
by lbk000
Sat images I've seen of the airbase damage doesn't seem to support this cluster warhead claim.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 21:00
by marsavian
Satellite Photos Reveal Extent Of Damage From Iranian Strike On Air Base In Iraq

https://www.npr.org/2020/01/08/79451703 ... 8512613959
https://www.businessinsider.com/satelli ... ?r=US&IR=T
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/08/poli ... index.html

Satellite photos taken Wednesday show that an Iranian missile strike has caused extensive damage at the Ain al-Assad air base in Iraq, which hosts U.S. and coalition troops.

The photos, taken by the commercial company Planet and shared with NPR via the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, show hangars and buildings hit hard by a barrage of Iranian missiles that were fired early Wednesday morning local time.

At least five structures were damaged in the attack on the base in Anbar province, which apparently was precise enough to hit individual buildings. "Some of the locations struck look like the missiles hit dead center," says David Schmerler, an analyst with the Middlebury Institute.


https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/3 ... se-in-iraq

The U.S. government has also now confirmed that it did not shoot down any incoming missiles. It did not, at least at the time of the strikes, have any ballistic missile defenses in place in Iraq ostensibly because its forces were postured to fight ISIS, which does not have these weapons.


More on this ...

https://mobile.twitter.com/LucasFoxNews ... 6093437952
https://mobile.twitter.com/JenGriffinFN ... 3457973251

The US has Patriot missile batteries guarding strategic assets in Baghdad and guarding bases in the region: Kuwait, Qatar etc. NOT guarding Al Asad or Erbil bases. Most of Iran’s ballistic missiles are pointed at American bases in the Gulf - Qatar, UAE, Kuwait.

The US had repositioned its forces after the Soleimani killing from small outposts to the larger protected bases. The 82nd airborne which flew in from Ft Bragg remained in Kuwait because they were protected by a “Patriot missile defense shield umbrella,” I am told.



High resolution https://s5.gifyu.com/images/highres.jpg

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https://mobile.twitter.com/saraecook/st ... 4145514498

Sara Cook
@saraecook

NEW per
@CBSDavidMartin
: A DOD official says the US had “multiple hours” warning of an attack, plenty of time for troops to take shelter in bunkers. This warning came from a combo of satellites and signals and communications intercepts – the same systems that watch for NK tests

Image

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 08 Jan 2020, 23:31
by zhangmdev
Really impressed by the commercial sat images, sub-meter resolution, released hours after the event. Besides a bit of censorship, everything looks quite clean. All those helicopters, tiltroters, uavs. I can almost imagine the rotors turning and they flying away from danger.

Unimpressed by the result of the attack. A handful of "tents" or "buildings" were hit. The groud was hardly disturbed beyond the craters. Nothing is burning, no large scale fire damage. If I were they, at least I'd crater the runway, destroy the fuel storage, disrupt the operation of the air base as long as possible, or at least smash those tightly packed barracks to make living there uncomfortable. Not saying the attack is not dangerous, but the damage looks hardly worth those dozens of ballistic missiles spent.

So this round is over, Iran made a good show of it, literally crying because it was caught off guard. US refrained from direct conflict, don't want to be the bad guy this time.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 09 Jan 2020, 00:29
by marsavian
What is more unimpressive to me is that the US Army could not spare one Patriot battery to shield front line Iraqi air bases especially when your commander in chief is terminating their No.1 General and openly exchanging military threats, it beggars belief as the Iranians were basically given free hits. Of course missiles are often hit and miss in accuracy after traveling hundreds of miles and these were not their top of the line ones but it's fortunate one didn't directly hit a bunker where the personnel were. Ideally every base should have a big 3D AESA Radar or THAAD along with several Patriots.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 09 Jan 2020, 01:18
by weasel1962
Consensus growing that the 737 down in Tehran is due to technical issues (engine overheat).

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/wo ... s-12245302

OTTAWA: The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that a Ukrainian airliner which crashed in Iran on Wednesday (Jan 8) was not brought down by a missile, said a Canadian security source.

The source, who declined to be identified, said the agencies believed the Boeing 737 plane had suffered a technical malfunction. The Ukraine International Airline jet crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran, killing all 176 people on board.

The disaster occurred shortly after Iran launched a series of missile attacks against two military bases in Iraq that housed US troops.

"The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that the plane was not brought down by a missile. There is no evidence to suggest that," said the source.

The agencies believe the most likely cause of the crash was a malfunction, the source added, saying there was some evidence one of the plane's engines had overheated.

Boeing said it had no additional comment. Earlier, the company said it was in contact with the airline and was ready to assist.

In July 2014 a Malaysia Airlines flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was shot out of the sky over eastern Ukraine during a rebellion by Russian-backed separatists, killing all 298 people on board.
Source: Reuters

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 09 Jan 2020, 05:10
by Corsair1963
"weasel1962"

Consensus growing that the 737 down in Tehran is due to technical issues (engine overheat).


Not that I am one to believe in some type of conspiracy theory in such matters. Yet, does seem odd that just a few hours after the crash. Everyone said the loss was attributed to a technical and/or mechanical issue.

That is the "fastest" reaction to a cause of any Airliner Accident that I have ever heard of. As most go out of their way to not to jump to any conclusion. Before a very thorough investigation is completed....

Remember, none of the crew survived and nobody could have accessed the information on the Data Recorders in such a short period.

:|

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 09 Jan 2020, 07:52
by nick_jm
https://twitter.com/Azematt/status/1214967566369730561

This thread claims SA-15 wreckage in the vicinity of the crash site - take it with a big grain of salt.

For what it's worth, I'd take a claim from any "anonymous security source" that an accidental shootdown can be completely ruled out as a possibility - while the wreck's still smoking - with a bigger one...

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 09 Jan 2020, 10:11
by hornetfinn
zhangmdev wrote:Really impressed by the commercial sat images, sub-meter resolution, released hours after the event. Besides a bit of censorship, everything looks quite clean. All those helicopters, tiltroters, uavs. I can almost imagine the rotors turning and they flying away from danger.


Definitely. It wasn't long ago when such capability was strictly only in high-end military satellites.

zhangmdev wrote:Unimpressed by the result of the attack. A handful of "tents" or "buildings" were hit. The groud was hardly disturbed beyond the craters. Nothing is burning, no large scale fire damage. If I were they, at least I'd crater the runway, destroy the fuel storage, disrupt the operation of the air base as long as possible, or at least smash those tightly packed barracks to make living there uncomfortable. Not saying the attack is not dangerous, but the damage looks hardly worth those dozens of ballistic missiles spent.


I think this clearly shows how difficult it is to shut down a large airbase using ballistic (or cruise) missiles. A lot of missiles is going to be needed to seriously disrupt operations for longer than a day or two. So such an attack would need to be followed with more conventional bombing with a lot more HE on target. A single missile has about similar effect on target as a single Mk 84 bomb when using unitary warhead. I'd say that Desert Storm already showed pretty well how difficult it's to do serious and lasting damage to airbases. Of course a lot depends on accuracy of said weapons and conventional bombing from aircraft has been far more precise than ballistic missiles. I'm not sure how accurate these Iranian attacks were. They might have been accurate or not as the base is full of buildings and stuff that could be hit even with imprecise attack.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 09 Jan 2020, 10:54
by weasel1962
I remember the initial reactions to the shootdown in Ukraine of the Malaysian airliner. within hours, there were reports of "radio intercepts" issued by the Ukrainians and fingers already pointed at the Russians. Don't recall many people saying then that it was premature.

Agree that the possibility that this is an Iranian shootdown cannot be ruled out yet. Recent incidents e.g. shootdown of Indian helicopter during balakot is a recent example. The Iranians may not be cooperating with the US but there is no reason why they wouldn't cooperate with the Canadians. Trudeau will probably push for TSB access to the investigation and crash site + gets independent eyes on the ground.

This was the statement they released.
http://www.bst-tsb.gc.ca/eng/medias-med ... 00108.html

However, what is factual is that there is no evidence to suggest a shootdown. The existence of SAM sites is not evidence. Tehran will definitely be defended.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 09 Jan 2020, 11:23
by weasel1962
hornetfinn wrote:I think this clearly shows how difficult it is to shut down a large airbase using ballistic (or cruise) missiles. A lot of missiles is going to be needed to seriously disrupt operations for longer than a day or two. So such an attack would need to be followed with more conventional bombing with a lot more HE on target. A single missile has about similar effect on target as a single Mk 84 bomb when using unitary warhead. I'd say that Desert Storm already showed pretty well how difficult it's to do serious and lasting damage to airbases. Of course a lot depends on accuracy of said weapons and conventional bombing from aircraft has been far more precise than ballistic missiles. I'm not sure how accurate these Iranian attacks were. They might have been accurate or not as the base is full of buildings and stuff that could be hit even with imprecise attack.


Images of the strikes as posted above
https://www.militarytimes.com/video/202 ... -air-base/

I think the images suggest the strikes were relatively precise. I'm guessing GPS guidance using Beidou esp since many of the missiles originated with Chinese assistance. It is also amazing how fast BDA occurred just with commercial sat access.

Agree, shouldn't read too much into it since the base was not defended by Patriots nor were there that many missiles. However it re-emphasizes the risk to key military facilities if there are no missile defense in place. The Taiwanese should be learning from this.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 09 Jan 2020, 12:26
by hornetfinn
weasel1962 wrote:
hornetfinn wrote:I think this clearly shows how difficult it is to shut down a large airbase using ballistic (or cruise) missiles. A lot of missiles is going to be needed to seriously disrupt operations for longer than a day or two. So such an attack would need to be followed with more conventional bombing with a lot more HE on target. A single missile has about similar effect on target as a single Mk 84 bomb when using unitary warhead. I'd say that Desert Storm already showed pretty well how difficult it's to do serious and lasting damage to airbases. Of course a lot depends on accuracy of said weapons and conventional bombing from aircraft has been far more precise than ballistic missiles. I'm not sure how accurate these Iranian attacks were. They might have been accurate or not as the base is full of buildings and stuff that could be hit even with imprecise attack.


Images of the strikes as posted above
https://www.militarytimes.com/video/202 ... -air-base/

I think the images suggest the strikes were relatively precise. I'm guessing GPS guidance using Beidou esp since many of the missiles originated with Chinese assistance. It is also amazing how fast BDA occurred just with commercial sat access.

Agree, shouldn't read too much into it since the base was not defended by Patriots nor were there that many missiles. However it re-emphasizes the risk to key military facilities if there are no missile defense in place. The Taiwanese should be learning from this.


Agreed that accuracy could well be rather high for ballistic missile (especially one that is based on Scud). GPS/Beidou/Glonass is very likely and easiest way to improve accuracy in such a missile. I doubt it will allow pinpoint strikes but might improve CEP from 500m to say 100m or so. Better accuracy would need more advanced missile design IMO.

I agree that it's baffling why there was no Patriot system in place in such a big base. Of course it would add costs, but would likely not be much compared to all other expenses.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 09 Jan 2020, 13:57
by mmm
But also note that their failure rate is not exactly low, depending on report there are maybe 10 or more allocated to Al-Asad AB. It's hard to gauge how good the precision actually was even for those landed at the target site depending on what their intended targets were, but it appears to be reasonable against non hardened area targets.

The problem with BMD is that you can't be waterproof in all places, you simply won't win cost competition that way. And given this particular scenario I don't think deploying and manning a battery in the attack is the best course of action to minimize risk to personnel. Judging by the video, it would have been a relatively challenging case given the size and simultaneity of the attack on Al-Asad AB.If the reported "hours" of advanced warning is to be believed it's possible that the bases themselves were mostly evacuated. Even if not hardened shelter is a safer option by far.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 09 Jan 2020, 14:54
by element1loop
Who needs hypersonics to get hits when bases are left undefended against second-tier strike weapons.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 09 Jan 2020, 19:28
by marsavian
U.S. officials confident Iran shot down passenger jet

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51055219

Evidence suggests an Iranian missile brought down a Ukrainian passenger plane that crashed near Tehran, possibly in error, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau has said.


https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/pl ... m-updates/

U.S. officials are confident Iran shot down a Ukrainian jetliner in the hours after the Iranian missile attack on U.S. targets earlier this week, CBS News has learned. The Ukrainian International Airlines plane crashed Wednesday soon after takeoff from Tehran's airport, killing all 176 people on board.

U.S. intelligence picked up signals of a radar being turned on, sources told CBS News. U.S. satellites also detected two surface-to-air missile launches, which happened shortly before the plane exploded, CBS News was told.


https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot- ... es-1481313

The Ukrainian flight that crashed just outside the Iranian capital of Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile system, a Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official told Newsweek.

Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, a Boeing 737–800 en route from Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airpot to Kyiv's Boryspil International Airport, stopped transmitting data Tuesday just minutes after takeoff and not long after Iran launched missiles at military bases housing U.S. and allied forces in neighboring Iraq. The aircraft is believed to have been struck by a Russia-built Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile system, known to NATO as Gauntlet, the three officials, who were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, told Newsweek.



As I noted earlier check the video link posted here earlier, a couple of seconds before ground impact the plane lights up further with another missile impact around 27 seconds in.

viewtopic.php?p=432746#p432746

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 09 Jan 2020, 21:39
by marsavian
IRGC Aerospace Commander: Wednesday Missile Strikes Mark Start of Major Operations Across Region

https://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13981019000659

... more bluster and threats ....

The missile strikes on one of the United States' most important bases within the framework of martyr Soleimani operation was the start of big operations which will continue in the entire region," General Hajizadeh told reporters in Tehran on Thursday.

"We were not after killing anyone although tens of US troops have likely been killed and wounded and were transfered to Israel and Jordan on 9 sorties of C-130 flights," he added, noting that had Iran intended to kill the American forces, it could have planned high casualty operations to kill 500 US military men in the first step and 4,000 to 5,000 others in the second and third phases within 48 hours.

General Hajizadeh said that 13 missiles were fired at the US bases on Tuesday, adding that Iran was ready to fire hundreds of missiles in the first hours and had prepared thousands of missiles for possible 3-day to week-long clashes between the two sides.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 09 Jan 2020, 21:41
by mmm
Shedding debris like that while having a major fire, it doesn't happen with modern turbofan even after eating a bird. IR early warning satellite could also have detected SAM launch.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 09 Jan 2020, 21:52
by marsavian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ls-believe

The Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, speaking at a hastily-convened press conference, said his government “will not rest” until it got justice. Of the 176 people onboard, 79 were Iranian, 63 were Canadian and 11 were Ukrainian (including nine crew members), along with 10 Swedes, seven Afghans, three Britons and three German nationals.

“We have intelligence, including from our allies and own intelligence that the plane was shot down by Iranian surface-to-air missiles,” Trudeau said. “Canadians want answers. That means transparency, accountability and justice.”

US media outlets quoted officials saying their satellites had identified the signature of an Iranian anti-aircraft battery being activated shortly before the aircraft went down a few minutes after taking off at 6:13am on Wednesday morning. The US officials said they had identified infrared signals from two suspected missiles, followed shortly afterwards by an infrared blip from the burning aircraft.

Trump told reporters on Thursday he had “suspicions” the plane might have been mistakenly shot down. “Someone could have made a mistake on the other side,” he said. “Some people say it was mechanical, I personally don’t think that’s even a question. I have a feeling that … something very terrible happened.”

Public suspicions that the Boeing 737-8000 may have accidentally been shot down had grown throughout Thursday based on images circulating on social media showing what appeared to be missile debris that was purportedly photographed near the crash site.

The London-based firm IHS Markit cited the images in a memo arguing the aircraft was “likely to have been shot down mistakenly by an IRGC-operated SA-15 missile”. It said the debris appeared to be that of a Russian-made Tor-M1 missile known to be possessed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. It could not confirm the authenticity of the images but said it assessed them to be credible.


Image

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 09 Jan 2020, 22:11
by afjag
Purported video showing Ukrainian Airline being hit.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/vide ... ssile.html

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 10 Jan 2020, 00:12
by marsavian
Pretty conclusive video ! How dumb are these Iranians, do they seriously think the US is going to send something with an airliner RCS e.g. B-52 into the middle of Iran ?!! No they would be the ones standing back with long range standoff weapons, duh ! Only B-2, F-22, F-35 would be roaming over Iran.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 10 Jan 2020, 01:18
by zhangmdev
What baffles me is why Iran didn't ground all civilian aviation after it fired those missiles, at least wait for the response? If the US decided to retaliate, who knows how many jets, missiles and bombs would be all over its air space. Is it a good idea to let those airliners fly as usual?

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 10 Jan 2020, 01:27
by lbk000
marsavian wrote:Pretty conclusive video ! How dumb are these Iranians, do they seriously think the US is going to send something with an airliner RCS e.g. B-52 into the middle of Iran ?!! No they would be the ones standing back with long range standoff weapons, duh ! Only B-2, F-22, F-35 would be roaming over Iran.

I think it's easy to forget how quickly one stops thinking consciously under pressure. Imagine you're stuck inside a dark closet that you know is near the top of the list of things marked for death by an American counterattack that you fully expect. You may even know that there is a good chance you might never get to see what kills you, nevermind get your chance to shoot back at it, but nobody likes going down without a fight so you're probably gonna be highly primed to shoot the first thing you even suspect to be looking in your direction.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 10 Jan 2020, 01:34
by mmm
marsavian wrote:Pretty conclusive video ! How dumb are these Iranians, do they seriously think the US is going to send something with an airliner RCS e.g. B-52 into the middle of Iran ?!! No they would be the ones standing back with long range standoff weapons, duh ! Only B-2, F-22, F-35 would be roaming over Iran.


I doubt they assumed they'd see any manned platform. Most likely they took it for cruise missile, the flight profile was the best match(well as best as it could), also the weapon they purportedly used in the engagement. Low visibility, poorly networked low tier point defense operating semi independently, relaxed ROE and the psychological pressure. Also given the situation they were probably a little cautious about their RF emission. If they were to get hit it would have been the major C2 nodes and emmiter, might have further reduced their ability to PID.

Though I wouldn't be too surprised if there were a few penetrating ISR platforms roaming over Iranian air space, just to better ascertain their intention and scope of action.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 10 Jan 2020, 02:59
by weasel1962
lol, so now that it is established that the Iranians did it, like how the Russians did it, one day after stating that it is premature, I can presume that it is now no longer premature to conclude what the cause was...

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 10 Jan 2020, 07:24
by citanon
So we killed their number two and they responded by stampeding more than 50 people to death and shooting down an air liner full of people flying from their own capital airport....

I don't think this episode leaves them looking stronger....

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 11 Jan 2020, 06:20
by Dragon029
And now finally, Iran admits that they did unintentionally shoot down PS752:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51073621

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 11 Jan 2020, 16:44
by botsing
Dragon029 wrote:And now finally, Iran admits that they did unintentionally shoot down PS752:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51073621

Good that they admitted it, that will greatly help with de-escalating the current tension.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 11 Jan 2020, 22:26
by zhangmdev
https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politi ... reloaded=1

Some how they still managed to blame the pilot:

the Ukrainian airlines departs from Imam Khomeini Airport and, while in rotation, is completely approaching a sensitive military center of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps and at altitude and in form of a hostile flight. In these circumstances, the plane was ...

Edit to add IRGC's explanation:
https://ifpnews.com/irgc-releases-detai ... nian-plane

The planed was identified as a cruise missile at a distance of 19 km. "The guy" could not contact "his commanders" to get approval, and he had 10 seconds to decide to fire or not. So he decided to engage.

IRGC asked to close air space for civilian aviation, but was refused.

IRGC knew what happened almost immediately. The Aviation Organization rejected the possibility of a shotdown because they didn't know.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 11 Jan 2020, 23:11
by marsavian
Reads like a fairy tale, all of it ... once upon a time in Tehran ...

1. Following the threats of President (Donald J. Trump) and the criminal America’s military commanders targeting a large number of targets in the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in the event of a counter-operation and in view of the unprecedented increase in air traffic in the region, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s armed forces were prepared to respond to possible threats at the highest level.

2. In the hours after the missile strikes, US terrorist forces’ warplanes around the country increased, and some reports of airstrikes targeting strategic centers in the country were reported to numerous defense units and targets on some radar plates. Caused greater sensitivity in air defense complexes.

3. In such critical and critical conditions, Flight PS752 of the Ukrainian airlines departs from Imam Khomeini Airport and, while in rotation, is completely approaching a sensitive military center of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps and at altitude and in form of a hostile flight. In these circumstances, the plane was accidentally hit by human error and, unfortunately, which unfortunately results in the martyrdom of dear compatriots and the death of a number of foreign nationals.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 11 Jan 2020, 23:45
by marsavian
The immediate aftermath of Qasem Soleimani's death is over now and things have settled down to an uneasy truce so what has been achieved :-

1) The price of Iran's aggressive foreign policy especially towards the US has been made higher, the puppet masters in Iran will be targets in future.

2) Iran flexed its missile might and although it didn't frighten the US certainly frightened its neighbors so they may see that as a win in terms of a regional show of power.

3) Iraq on the face of it wants the US to leave now so again could be a win for Iran if it eventually comes true.

4) Sanctions just got tougher on Iran increasing the economic pressure on that theocratic regime.

5) Iran will go back to warfare by proxy and wait for a more appeasing President so that JPCOA/Sanctions relief can be revived. Their long term plan is to develop an ICBM and then they will develop nuclear warheads for it. Their ultimate aim is to mimic North Korea but via the missile first. It will take a President even tougher than Trump to stop them getting there.

Militarily not much happened as neither Iran or the US wanted an all out war. Once Iran expends the majority of its ballistic and cruise missiles it will be toothless but no one in the region feels inclined to take that initial pain to face them down so this pointless centuries old Shia/Sunni bloody struggle for Islamic supremacy will continue with nearby Westerners as collateral damage.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 12 Jan 2020, 00:19
by marsavian
Iran (briefly) arrests the UK ambassador, as you do when you are a normal law abiding state ;)

https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... mid-tehran
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51077897

.The UK's ambassador to Iran was arrested in Tehran as protesters took to the streets after the country admitted that it shot down a passenger plane by mistake.

Rob Macaire was held for three hours, in what the UK described as a "flagrant violation of international law". It is understood he was attending a vigil for those who died in the crash, which turned into a protest. He was arrested while on his way back to the UK embassy.

The Iranian Etemad newspaper shared a picture of the ambassador on Twitter after the Tasnim news agency reported his arrest. Iranian media claimed Mr Macaire was accused of inciting anti-government protests.

In a statement, UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said: "The arrest of our Ambassador in Tehran without grounds or explanation is a flagrant violation of international law.

"The Iranian government is at a cross-roads moment. It can continue its march towards pariah status with all the political and economic isolation that entails, or take steps to deescalate tensions and engage in a diplomatic path forwards."



https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2020 ... ran-unrest

According to Tasnim dispatches, Macaire was in a protest rally in front of the university in time of arrest. He is accused of involvement in provoking some radical acts among protesters.

He was freed a few hours later but will be summoned tomorrow for further explanations.

An informed source told Tasnim that a shop which is located in front of Amir Kabir University has been used as envoy’s place for coordination.

A group of students had gathered inside the university to voice their protest after Iran announced the downing of a Ukrainian plane.


https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html

Thousands of people gathered in front of the gate of Amirkabir University of Technology not far from the former US Embassy in Tehran on Saturday in anti-government protests.

The students were originally set to gather for a vigil ceremony to commemorate the victims of the downed Ukrainian Airlines plane, but the mood of the crowd shifted to anger, Iran’s semi-official FARS News Agency reported.

Across social media people posted the following:

“The Chief Commander of all army forces (Supreme Leader) must resign.”

“Resignation is not enough. The responsible must be tried.”

“Death to dictator.”

“IRGC, resignation, resignation. Leave the power.”



President Trump's say on the protests

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTr ... 5529902081
https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTr ... 2230067202

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

To the brave, long-suffering people of Iran: I've stood with you since the beginning of my Presidency, and my Administration will continue to stand with you. We are following your protests closely, and are inspired by your courage.

The government of Iran must allow human rights groups to monitor and report facts from the ground on the ongoing protests by the Iranian people. There can not be another massacre of peaceful protesters, nor an internet shutdown. The world is watching.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 12 Jan 2020, 03:50
by marsavian
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/11/midd ... index.html

Al-Asad, Iraq (CNN)United States troops at the Al-Asad air base in Iraq were aware that an Iranian attack was imminent, allowing them to take shelter two-and-a-half-hours before missiles struck on Wednesday, CNN has been told during an exclusive tour of the devastated site.

Most troops were either flown out of the base or sheltering in bunkers by 11:00 p.m. local time Tuesday -- shortly before the first of four volleys of missiles began at just after 1:30 a.m. on Wednesday, officers said during the first tour by journalists of the air base.

The attack lasted around two hours, only targeting the US areas of the air base, which comprise around a quarter of the Iraqi base. Officers called it a "miracle" that there were no casualties at the blasted site, with missiles landing just a few meters from bunkers, and some essential personnel remaining outside throughout.

The first strike hit at 1:34 a.m. and after a brief pause of around 15 minutes, the next volley began. Two more volleys of missiles followed over the next two hours.


Time to stop relying on miracles and get Patriots to that base ...

Image

Image

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Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 12 Jan 2020, 07:20
by madrat
I wouldn't be surprised that these 'protesters' were coordinated through a collective leftism effort, courtesy of China.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 13 Jan 2020, 14:02
by hornetfinn
It's interesting to see how the Ukranian aircraft shootdown investigation proceeds. Will the Iranians be open or try to cover up. IMO, they'd be stupid if they tried to hide evidence as it's likely to be detected by the investigators. That might further fuel the unrest in Iran and also make the situation even worse politically and economically for them. I think they are basically forced to be open about the whole mess.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 14 Jan 2020, 08:10
by geforcerfx
hornetfinn wrote:It's interesting to see how the Ukranian aircraft shootdown investigation proceeds. Will the Iranians be open or try to cover up. IMO, they'd be stupid if they tried to hide evidence as it's likely to be detected by the investigators. That might further fuel the unrest in Iran and also make the situation even worse politically and economically for them. I think they are basically forced to be open about the whole mess.


I think they realized they were going to get caught after they invited the NTSB to the investigation on Friday then announced Saturday that the military had accidentally shot down the aircraft.

The really amazing thing is they don't even have CRAMs at any of the iraq airbases anymore, so even the Katyusha rockets and mortar fire can get through.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 14 Jan 2020, 10:06
by hornetfinn
geforcerfx wrote:I think they realized they were going to get caught after they invited the NTSB to the investigation on Friday then announced Saturday that the military had accidentally shot down the aircraft.

The really amazing thing is they don't even have CRAMs at any of the iraq airbases anymore, so even the Katyusha rockets and mortar fire can get through.


Very likely. There was not going to be way to cover this up as any tampering with the evidence would be impossible to do without anybody noticing. How do you hide the shrapnel holes in the aircraft? That would require getting rid of it altogether and that would be slightly suspicious I'd say...

Maybe the security situation within Iraq is pretty good now and such systems were not deemed necessary. However situations can change quickly there especially with Iran and others actively supporting different groups in the country. Getting rid of Qassem Suleimani was justified with threat presented to US forces in Iraq. There was already that missile/drone strike on the Saudi oil field and they might possibly use similar attacks on US forces in Iraq. I agree that at least CRAM systems should be in place. Israeli Iron Dome and David's Sling would be perfect for protection from all kinds of missiles and rockets and should be pretty affordable. Naturally Patriot or THAAD would be needed to counter Iranian longer ranged ballistic missiles.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 14 Jan 2020, 10:40
by hornetfinn
From what I've read and seen about the Iranian missile strikes is that Ain Al-Assad base was likely attacked with Qiam-1 ballistic missiles. It seems that those attacks were rather accurate and did pretty significant damage and luckily nobody was seriously hurt. The other base was possibly attacked with Fateh-110 variant and those didn't seem to achieve anything. Interesting that they have now shown pretty good performance from their ballistic missiles and cruise missiles/drones. I wonder how good the North Korean missiles are? I bet these countries have exchanged knowledge and expertise about missile technology. I bet there will be more interest for defensive systems (CRAM, GBAD, BMD) after these incidents.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 14 Jan 2020, 19:30
by geforcerfx
hornetfinn wrote:
Maybe the security situation within Iraq is pretty good now and such systems were not deemed necessary. However situations can change quickly there especially with Iran and others actively supporting different groups in the country. Getting rid of Qassem Suleimani was justified with threat presented to US forces in Iraq. There was already that missile/drone strike on the Saudi oil field and they might possibly use similar attacks on US forces in Iraq. I agree that at least CRAM systems should be in place. Israeli Iron Dome and David's Sling would be perfect for protection from all kinds of missiles and rockets and should be pretty affordable. Naturally Patriot or THAAD would be needed to counter Iranian longer ranged ballistic missiles.



Army seems to be taking SHORAD very seriously, adding the new launcher turret to stykers as well as IFPC Inc 2-I seemed to be going through development pretty quickly and was tested with 6 or so different missiles. MML has fired the Tamir missile (iron dome) so the army is testing anything they can to quickly fill the cruise missile/ rocket and mortar gap.

Image

I still think CWIS is liked for C-RAM from a cost perspective, if the navy keeps developing smart munition for the 57mm guns on the LCS's the army could take interest in that as that would cut down on the down field lead issue CRAM has had.


Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 14 Jan 2020, 19:41
by madrat
NSW video above.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 14 Jan 2020, 21:07
by milosh
geforcerfx wrote:
I still think CWIS is liked for C-RAM from a cost perspective, if the navy keeps developing smart munition for the 57mm guns on the LCS's the army could take interest in that as that would cut down on the down field lead issue CRAM has had.


Problem with ballistic missile is "what goes up must fall down" so if you use shells to stop ballistic missile warhead you need some big shells, which could punch trough armor of warhead (little known fact you have armored warheads) and detonate it on safer distance. No wonder railgun was consider as perfect solution for that but still there are lot of problems.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 15 Jan 2020, 23:43
by marsavian
Pentagon considering reinforcing missile defenses after Iranian strikes

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... rikes.html

The Pentagon is considering sending additional missile defenses and other capabilities to the Middle East to defend American troops in the wake of Iranian ballistic missile strikes in Iraq Jan. 8.

While Iranian ballistic missiles fired at Ain al-Asad air base and the Erbil airport caused no troop casualties among US or coalition forces, Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy said this morning the strikes reinforced Iran’s ability to target and kill Americans.

“They’re a very capable enemy,” McCarthy said on Wednesday. “They have capabilities that can strike and kill Americans.”

McCarthy said it would ultimately be up to Defense Secretary Mark Esper, his predecessor in the Army’s top civilian role, to decide whether to send reinforcements.

“It could be a variety of enablers, like missile defense and others, so we’re looking at that,” he said, refusing to provide details on what capabilities the Army could send.

Senior US officials said last week the Pentagon was mulling the deployment of more air defenses after the attacks, which Iran said was in retaliation for an American drone strike that killed Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani at the Baghdad airport earlier this month.


https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/u-s-loo ... -1.8378713

Tehran had been seen as more likely to attack U.S. positions in countries other than Iraq, where Tehran counts some influential allies, the senior U.S. official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The disclosure helps explain why the United States did not have Patriot air defenses deployed to locations like al-Asad air base in Iraq, where at least 11 of Iran's ballistic missiles struck in Wednesday's attack. Such systems are deployed elsewhere in the region where American forces are stationed, including in Saudi Arabia, an arch-foe of Iran.

Instead, U.S. forces took advantage of the hours of early warning provided by U.S. intelligence and were able to take more rudimentary defensive measures before missiles fired from at least three locations inside of Iran hit their targets in Iraq.

Such precautions include "scatter plans," huddling in bunkers and protective gear to help shield American forces that come under fire.

Army General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said he believed the attack had been intended to kill U.S. personnel at al-Asad. He noted that the missiles had 1,000- to 2,000-pound warheads on them, each with significant explosive power able to kill people in a wide area around the detonation site.

It was unclear whether the U.S. military might now seek to station Patriots inside of Iraq - and where they would be moved from. Air defenses are a scarce resource in the U.S. military.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 16 Jan 2020, 06:40
by knowan
hornetfinn wrote:Interesting that they have now shown pretty good performance from their ballistic missiles and cruise missiles/drones. I wonder how good the North Korean missiles are? I bet these countries have exchanged knowledge and expertise about missile technology.


Don't forget all the technology and assistance they're receiving from Russia and China.


hornetfinn wrote: I bet there will be more interest for defensive systems (CRAM, GBAD, BMD) after these incidents.


Absolutely.

For specific technologies, I'm expecting further acceleration of directed energy weapon programs.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 17 Jan 2020, 12:14
by hornetfinn
knowan wrote:
hornetfinn wrote:Interesting that they have now shown pretty good performance from their ballistic missiles and cruise missiles/drones. I wonder how good the North Korean missiles are? I bet these countries have exchanged knowledge and expertise about missile technology.


Don't forget all the technology and assistance they're receiving from Russia and China.

hornetfinn wrote: I bet there will be more interest for defensive systems (CRAM, GBAD, BMD) after these incidents.


Absolutely.

For specific technologies, I'm expecting further acceleration of directed energy weapon programs.


I agree with both of your points. It definitely seems like both ballistic and cruise missiles have become a lot more dangerous recently and their inventories have grown a lot in many problematic countries. They can very likely hit targets very accurately in serious volleys. Also accurate targeting info is very easy to get these days from multiple sources which makes the problem a lot worse.

Naturally when used alone, they are not going to really change the outcome. Luckily neither Iran or North Korea has much of an air force to do follow up attacks. But both could stage pretty serious ground offensive and naturally North Korea also has massive artillery and a lot of targets close enough to use them.

I agree that DEWs are definitley going to get some development boost from all this.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 17 Jan 2020, 21:54
by zerion
6 F-35 jets were reportedly on Iran’s borders at time of plane crash: Russia

Acting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says there is unverified information that at least six American F-35 jets were “in the Iranian border area” at the time when Iran accidentally downed Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 last week.

This information has yet to be verified, but I’d like to underline the edginess that always accompanies such situations,” he said on Friday.

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/ ... sia-Lavrov

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 18 Jan 2020, 02:37
by madrat
I don't know, but it doesn't sound anything at all like an admission of tort.

Hmm, maybe stop provoking American responses and 'such situations' would never happen...

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 21 Jan 2020, 02:37
by marsavian
Russian sources: Moscow gave Iran the high precision tech for missiles that struck US bases in Iraq

https://www.debka.com/russian-sources-m ... s-in-iraq/

Russian sources: Moscow gave Iran the high precision tech for missiles that struck US bases in Iraq
Jan 19, 2020 @ 9:37 F-35 planes, Iran missiles strike US base in Iraq, Russian GLONASS

The high precision technology accounting for the astonishing accuracy of Iran’s missile strike on the US Ain Al Asad air base in Iraq on Jan. 8 came from Moscow, say Russian media quoting local military sources. They name the technology as the GLONASS global navigation system, which corresponds to the American GPS, and had the effect of reducing the Iranian missiles’ targeting error to just 10 meters.

The same sources report that the Iranians launched altogether 19 missiles against the Ain al Asad base n western Iraq, of which 17 struck dead center of their targets.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the accuracy of impact amazed US and Israel intelligence, which had not been aware of this Iranian capacity. Its significance is such that – whether provided by Russia or self-made – Iran’s short- and medium-range missiles can reach any point in the Middle East that is unprotected by effective anti-missile systems within a 700km radius.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 23 Jan 2020, 02:39
by hythelday
zerion wrote:
6 F-35 jets were reportedly on Iran’s borders at time of plane crash: Russia

Acting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says there is unverified information that at least six American F-35 jets were “in the Iranian border area” at the time when Iran accidentally downed Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 last week.

This information has yet to be verified, but I’d like to underline the edginess that always accompanies such situations,” he said on Friday.

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/ ... sia-Lavrov


Russia being Russia by spweing complete BS at the highest level that is only meant to create media buzz so that the truth gets buried by tons of bovine excriment.

Tehran is nowhere near the border, and "border area" is about forty times more distant than SA-15 effective engagement area. Even if Iranian super-duper long range radars detected six F-35s "in the border area" it ain't an excuse to blast a civvie airliner that is taking off from your own airport and is checking in with ATC. Western and Israeli jets are quite regular visitors in Iraqi and Syria airspace, send some fightes to intercept, not SHORAD missiles in "Inshallah!" mode.

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 30 Jan 2020, 17:46
by marsavian
Pentagon Iraq briefing about the recent attack featuring Defense Secretary and Chief of Staff discussing brain trauma casualties and future defensive improvement. The US had asked Iraq permission to move Patriot batteries in. Would not discuss if further defense measures are planned i.e. anti-rocket/mortar ones.

https://www.military.com/daily-news/202 ... -iraq.html

Esper said that a U.S. commander in Iraq has requested a Patriot missile battery for reinforcement, "and in this case we support the commander."

The U.S. does not currently have Patriot defenses at either Al Asad or Erbil, where American troops are located. In coordination with other Gulf partner nations, the Pentagon has stationed the missile battery at other locations, such as bases in Saudi Arabia, which officials judged were more likely to be in Iran's crosshairs, The Associated Press reported Wednesday.

"[But] we need the permission of the Iraqi government; that's one issue," Esper said.

"There's mechanical pieces -- the 'science of war' so to speak -- of actually moving and bringing in Patriot. So the mechanics need to be worked out [to bring in an Army battalion]," Milley said.

He could not say for certain whether a Patriot battery could have prevented or intercepted the dozen or so ballistic missiles that hit Al Asad. "But it is what they're designed to do," Milley said.


https://youtu.be/-xXhyAHR16o


Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 31 Jan 2020, 14:34
by mixelflick
marsavian wrote:Russian sources: Moscow gave Iran the high precision tech for missiles that struck US bases in Iraq

https://www.debka.com/russian-sources-m ... s-in-iraq/

Russian sources: Moscow gave Iran the high precision tech for missiles that struck US bases in Iraq
Jan 19, 2020 @ 9:37 F-35 planes, Iran missiles strike US base in Iraq, Russian GLONASS

The high precision technology accounting for the astonishing accuracy of Iran’s missile strike on the US Ain Al Asad air base in Iraq on Jan. 8 came from Moscow, say Russian media quoting local military sources. They name the technology as the GLONASS global navigation system, which corresponds to the American GPS, and had the effect of reducing the Iranian missiles’ targeting error to just 10 meters.

The same sources report that the Iranians launched altogether 19 missiles against the Ain al Asad base n western Iraq, of which 17 struck dead center of their targets.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the accuracy of impact amazed US and Israel intelligence, which had not been aware of this Iranian capacity. Its significance is such that – whether provided by Russia or self-made – Iran’s short- and medium-range missiles can reach any point in the Middle East that is unprotected by effective anti-missile systems within a 700km radius.


Considering the missile strikes caused little damage and no casualties, I wouldn't be bragging about this if I were Russia...

Re: Kablammo! and recent events...

Unread postPosted: 31 Jan 2020, 15:28
by sferrin
mixelflick wrote:Considering the missile strikes caused little damage and no casualties, I wouldn't be bragging about this if I were Russia...


Considering they hit what they aimed for, and pretty much obliterated what they hit, I'd say they have every right to brag. They weren't aiming for a body-count; they were making a statement.