Kablammo! and recent events...

[spazsinbad]

Here Ya GO: http://i.imgur.com/jMDocjY.png & mayBefound here: viewtopic.php?f=55&t=5525&p=385132&hilit=jMDocjY#p385132 & viewtopic.php?f=55&t=6094&p=377859&hilit=jMDocjY#p377859 & viewtopic.php?f=55&t=52912&p=364895&hilit=jMDocjY#p364895 & viewtopic.php?f=55&t=52912&p=364889&hilit=jMDocjY#p364889 & viewtopic.php?f=58&t=24027&p=341582&hilit=jMDocjY#p341582
PROVIDED BY 'SWP'!

[marsavian]

steve2267, don't forget their most important offensive military targets, ballistic and cruise missiles.More effective than their air force at the moment. Certainly a prolonged aerial degrading of their military is exactly what stealth aircraft were built to achieve and there are enough of them now to spearhead and do the job well. A change in regime or at the very least a change in attitude is the ultimate goal here because they have been an outlaw military state for too long now.

[SpudmanWP]

Iran has to move now ; Or the US military machine will be in place.

Iran can do NOTHING to stop the "machine".

[citanon]

I think the worst thing Iran could have done was a cruise missile strike directed at US facilities in Iraq or elsewhere in the region coordinated with attack by PMF forces to take hostages.

However, they may have already lost the chance. For this to work they would to need to create a gap in US surveillance. They could have done this by taking out a US surveillance asset like a Triton drone immediately before an attack was to take place. That would then force all other manned and unmanned assets to pause or adjust their operations, creating blind spots for the Iranians to exploit. Unfortunately for them, they've already shown their hand with the take down of the Triton drone and subsequent hitting the Saudi oil facilities earlier last year.

That could have been a good move in a world where they controlled the escalation path but what they didn't realize was that they were not living in that world, and Trump would later go for the jugular without first hitting their pawns.

Meanwhile US countermeasures are probably in place. Cooller toys that the Iranians can't see have probably replaced the cool toys that they could. If they try to move now, they can expect more "pre-emption" and more dead generals.

[sferrin]

If Iran so much as waves their dick in our direction they'll lose their refineries and they know it. They aren't going to do jack sh*t.

[madrat]

It would suck for Iran if an attack on their refineries happened by drone from Saudi Arabia supported splinter groups in the region.

Karma is a bitch.

[tailgate]

First targets are always Command and Control.....always

Soli WAS C and C of the guard.....

We may take out targets as mentioned, but C and C is always top billing.......Take away the eyes and legs and the force degrades drastically.......jmho

[steve2267]

First targets are always Command and Control.....always

Soli WAS C and C of the guard.....

We may take out targets as mentioned, but C and C is always top billing.......Take away the eyes and legs and the force degrades drastically.......jmho

You make a great point. Would there ever be an exception? Specifically I am thinking if Iran escalates further, and the tactical conditions were right, would you consider reducing Natanz and Fordow to rubble and remove the Iranian nuclear threat from the table for the next decade or so?

I can see the downside to such a move being, that if you did not also immediately address C&C and Iran still has hundreds or thousands of rockets, SRBMs, IRBMs, the Iranian leadership may then feel obliged to launch what they have, consequences be damned.

The converse being... if you remove C&C, you most probably still have the option of immediately mopping up Natanz and Fordow. If regime change were to occur, it might then be possible to civilly clean up / dismantle Fordow & Natanz without yellowcake and other nasties blowing in the wind.

OK, command & control it is.

[spazsinbad]

USS Bataan, Marines 26th MEU Heading to Middle East Amid Tensions with Iran
03 Jan 2020 Ben Werner

"...“USS Bataan and embarked Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) are underway conducting routine operations, demonstrating the inherent flexibility of our naval forces,” Lt. Cmdr. Matthew Comer, a U.S. 6th Fleet spokesman told USNI News. “For operational security reasons, we do not discuss future operations. ARGMEUs operate continuously across the globe to provide commanders with a forward-deployed, flexible and responsive sea-based Marine Air-Ground Task Force.” The Marines will join soldiers from the Fort Bragg, N.C.-based 82nd Airborne who have been sent to Iraq as a security measure following the U.S. operation that killed a top Iranian military leader on Thursday....

...On New Year’s Day, the Pentagon sent about 750 members of the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to Kuwait.

The Bataan Amphibious Ready Group had just arrived off the coast of Morocco this week before its new tasking, according to the USNI Fleet tracker. The ARG deployed quietly from the East Coast in December."

Source: https://news.usni.org/2020/01/03/uss-ba ... -with-iran

[steve2267]

The 26th MEU has Harriers onboard the LHD-5 USS Bataan.

Closest USMC Lightning element would appear to be the USS America, LHA-6 forward deployed, and last reported docked, in Japan. As many may recall, as recently as October 2019, the America was exercising the "Lightning Carrier" concept with thirteen embarked Bees.

[steve2267]

USS Abraham Lincoln is transiting back to San Diego, her new home port, after being relieved by the USS Harry S Truman. Last report I saw had the Truman cruising around the Arabian Sea. No mention of her having transited the Strait of Hormuz.

So, only Lightnings apparently in play is the 34th TFS outside Abu Dhabi, unless more are flown in.

IMO, it seems reasonable that a squadron of Lightnings escorting a squadron of Strike Eagles (if they are still in theatre), with supporting Raptors, some Bones, and B-2's staging out of the USA would be sufficient to put an immediate hurt on Iranian C&C as tailgate has postulated. Look at what the USA achieved with the F-117 during the opening act of the first Gulf War.

[tailgate]

We will have three complete air arms from three services executing the air tasking order if it comes to that. Once air superiority is gained ( will be quick ), the services will be able to genuinely task and surgically take out whatever presents.

And when I say air superiority, I mean opposing air, IADS, and ecm assets. That is always a first and foremost though. Usually in the process of this you have C and C is neutralized. have to be careful with power girds cause most have redundant backups and military sites are usually isolated.....so.......targeting power grids is sometimes seen as targeting civilians, so form you own opinions on this.

Nukes, I think even Iran would have a very serious discussion about using a nuke of any type or purpose. It would be a game changing decision in so many ways it would take to long to write it all out. Taking out those sites would be a significant setback, but I think the ultimate goal could be achieved either way.

I think the use of F-22/35's in ny conflict would surprise people in the way they would be deployed and used.

[steve2267]

TG, just to be clear, I was in no way, shape, or form suggesting or advocating for use of nuclear weapons, tactical or strategic. I was inquiring about the wisdom (or not) of immediately destroying the industrial capacity of Iran to produce the materials necessary to construct atomic devices.

The only other possible utility I see in the destruction of underground, hardened production facilities is whether you might achieve a twofer... and Rocketboy come to his senses and pull a Ghadafi... deciding he really does not want to temp fate (or Trump as it were.)

[tailgate]

No worries Steve, I think if you can somehow have a fundamental change in thought and government, the need for those facilities would be negated. All I think we are asking is stop acting the way you do, join the civilized world and see what happens.

I can help but cite Qatar and UAE's situation in the world ( I have been to both ). I'm not saying that they don't have problems but look at their societies and they aren't running around causing unrest. They seem to be enjoying quit the nice life, just saying. And as far as know, they don't need WMD's.

[tailgate]

Oh, and on your point,I agree.......never quite understood putting stuff underground though. With our technology, we can destroy and bury that stuff for along time. I'm not sure that Iran right now could withstand to rebuild all that financially, or to continually rebuild it........