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Re: Israel strike Syrian SA-22

Unread postPosted: 13 May 2018, 00:26
by michaelemouse
How integrated is Syria' IADS anymore? If the early warning sensors which are supposed to cue the weapon platforms are destroyed/disrupted/turned off, then any weapon platform will have difficulty deciding when it should transmit.

How easy are cruise missiles to pick up in IR?

Re: Israel strike Syrian SA-22

Unread postPosted: 13 May 2018, 15:11
by mixelflick
That was the super duper Pantsir SAM battery, was it?

And why was that dude running toward the vehicle vs. away from it? Surely, he didn't think he was going to turn it on, acquire targets and fire in such a short timeframe?

I'll second the S-300/400 scenario when those are hit. Going to be really bad PR for anyone contemplating ordering those systems. Sure, they're lethal/to be respected. But the way the Russians pump them up in their brochures they're invincible. Stealth aircraft? No problem. Cruise missiles? No problem. Edge of space down into the weeds? No problem.

Combat record? We have a problem...

Re: Israel strike Syrian SA-22

Unread postPosted: 14 May 2018, 01:35
by Dragon029
They likely had no idea that the missile or drone was about to impact, they probably just heard another missile / drone impacting elsewhere, or perhaps just got the call that an Israeli strike was underway.

Re: Israel strike Syrian SA-22

Unread postPosted: 14 May 2018, 08:57
by hornetfinn
michaelemouse wrote:How integrated is Syria' IADS anymore? If the early warning sensors which are supposed to cue the weapon platforms are destroyed/disrupted/turned off, then any weapon platform will have difficulty deciding when it should transmit.

How easy are cruise missiles to pick up in IR?


This attack shows that they have really serious problems with their IADS. If their kill chain is disrupted for some reason (destroyed equipment or jammed communications for example) then any SHORAD system is going to be in serious trouble. Without working early warning and surveillance/search radars or directions from C2 elements, SHORAD systems must operate independently which lowers their efficiency and effectiveness a lot. They could use their own surveillance/search radar which would be a beacon for enemy SEAD/DEAD efforts and would only be relatively safely usable for very short periods of time (less than half a minute at a time). Even then the search range would be quite short. Independent operation is also very taxing for personnel and equipment for longer periods of time.

Cruise missiles are rather difficult to pick up in IR as they emit very little heat (low power turbojet usually) and fly low and relatively slow. So there is quite a lot of background thermal noise and not very much skin heat. Detection range is likely quite a bit shorter than against fighter jets.

Re: Israel strike Syrian SA-22

Unread postPosted: 14 May 2018, 12:58
by hornetfinn
Dragon029 wrote:They likely had no idea that the missile or drone was about to impact, they probably just heard another missile / drone impacting elsewhere, or perhaps just got the call that an Israeli strike was underway.


It might well be that he ran to answer the radio or phone call about getting ready to fight the attack... just a bit too late...

The behaviour of the crew looks like they had no idea what was going to happen in seconds.

Re: Israel strike Syrian SA-22

Unread postPosted: 14 May 2018, 12:58
by mk82
mixelflick wrote:That was the super duper Pantsir SAM battery, was it?

And why was that dude running toward the vehicle vs. away from it? Surely, he didn't think he was going to turn it on, acquire targets and fire in such a short timeframe?

I'll second the S-300/400 scenario when those are hit. Going to be really bad PR for anyone contemplating ordering those systems. Sure, they're lethal/to be respected. But the way the Russians pump them up in their brochures they're invincible. Stealth aircraft? No problem. Cruise missiles? No problem. Edge of space down into the weeds? No problem.

Combat record? We have a problem...


Absolutely spot on Mixelflick!

Re: Israel strike Syrian SA-22

Unread postPosted: 15 May 2018, 08:58
by hornetfinn
There seems to be claims floating around that this Pantsir was waiting to be reloaded and was out of ammo. That might well be the case as the crew was out of the vehicle (possibly waiting for ammo truck to arrive), but then it was done in worst possible way imaginable. An out-of-ammo mobile AD system should be moved to safer place (like inside/between buildings or under a bridge or inside forest) for reloading ASAP and not wait in the middle of an open field.

Re: Israel strike Syrian SA-22

Unread postPosted: 15 May 2018, 09:44
by popcorn
Running out of ammo and needing to reload isn't an excuse as it would happen in a real world combat scenario.

Re: Israel strike Syrian SA-22

Unread postPosted: 15 May 2018, 11:37
by hornetfinn
popcorn wrote:Running out of ammo and needing to reload isn't an excuse as it would happen in a real world combat scenario.


Sure and if that was the situation, then the Pantsir crew and their command elements handled that very badly for some reason. It seems to me that their equipment (overall, not just Pantsir S1), tactics and/or training/skills failed badly.

Re: Israel strike Syrian SA-22

Unread postPosted: 15 May 2018, 13:41
by citanon
I looked at the last few frames before the missile hit.

There seems to be two bright cylindrical shapes where the missile rack is supposed to be.

To me, those look like missiles, but I'm not an expert by any stretch.

Re: Israel strike Syrian SA-22

Unread postPosted: 15 May 2018, 13:55
by hornetfinn
Those are missile tubes and there is no way of telling if they are empty or still have missiles in them. It might as well be that the system was fully loaded at the time.

Re: Israel strike Syrian SA-22

Unread postPosted: 15 May 2019, 11:23
by gc
https://defence-blog.com/army/russia-lo ... ystem.html

It used to be the most amazing SHORAD system capable of swatting all PGMs out of the sky. Only to be shamed on video by IDF. Now it is labelled ineffective. Whats new? Maybe one day we will find out how the S-300/400 and Su-35 is ineffective after they are taken out by the F-35.

Re: Israel strike Syrian SA-22

Unread postPosted: 15 May 2019, 12:49
by loke
gc wrote:https://defence-blog.com/army/russia-looking-for-replacement-for-troubled-pantsir-air-defense-system.html

It used to be the most amazing SHORAD system capable of swatting all PGMs out of the sky. Only to be shamed on video by IDF. Now it is labelled ineffective. Whats new? Maybe one day we will find out how the S-300/400 and Su-35 is ineffective after they are taken out by the F-35.

I suspect even the Eurocanards, SH and F-16V/F-21 can easily handle both the SU-35 and at least the S-300... There are S-300 in the ME already and Israel has not had too much issues with those, AFAIK. Rafale has successfully dealt with S-300s in excercises. Etc. The updated S-400 may be slightly tougher nut to crack? As would the SU-57 (if/when it becomes available)

Re: Israel strike Syrian SA-22

Unread postPosted: 15 May 2019, 17:13
by sferrin
loke wrote:
gc wrote:https://defence-blog.com/army/russia-looking-for-replacement-for-troubled-pantsir-air-defense-system.html

It used to be the most amazing SHORAD system capable of swatting all PGMs out of the sky. Only to be shamed on video by IDF. Now it is labelled ineffective. Whats new? Maybe one day we will find out how the S-300/400 and Su-35 is ineffective after they are taken out by the F-35.

I suspect even the Eurocanards, SH and F-16V/F-21 can easily handle both the SU-35 and at least the S-300... There are S-300 in the ME already and Israel has not had too much issues with those, AFAIK.


When has Israel (or anybody for that matter) attacked a site defended by S-300s?

Re: Israel strike Syrian SA-22

Unread postPosted: 15 May 2019, 19:33
by SpudmanWP
Syria has at least one S-300 and it would cover the capital no matter where you put it in Western Syria.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/2 ... ty-at-best

Don't forget that Russia has S-300 and S-400 systems in Syria that are likely in the Tartus area between the two Russian Bases. This puts those less than 100 miles from the Capital.