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Unread post04 Oct 2017, 06:08

I just read an interesting story by Bill Gertz on Chinese plans to invade Taiwan as soon as 2020.

http://freebeacon.com/national-security ... iwan-2020/

By 2020 our inventory of F-35 variants will be much greater. Any such conflict would be decided by air superiority. Could China gain air superiority over Taiwan, and hold it long enough to land in force on the Island? Could they deign U.S. forces access to the area long enough to conquer Taiwan? How far reaching would such a Sino American conflict become? Anything up to a nuclear exchange is possible. Can we defend our bases in the region from Chinese Missile attacks? Can the Allied Navies contain the Chinese Submarine forces? Would the F-35 defeat the PLAAF?

In 1974 NATO conducted a war game of Operation Sea lion, the German plan to invade Britain in 1940. In the exercise the Germans launched a combined arms operation, rather then putting the whole burden on the Luftwaffe. They succeeded in landing a considerable army in Britain, but the invasion failed because the Royal Navy at heavy cost gained control of the Channel, and cut the Germans off from resupply, and reinforcements.

Hitler had little confidence that his forces could keep control of the Channel in the face of the powerful RN, so they never attempted to cross. The Chinese face a similar strategic situation in trying to invade Taiwan. Unlike the Germans China has the stronger navy, but as in 1940 air superiority is in question. Allied strike aircraft, and shore based artillery, and ASM,s could play havoc with Chinese shipping in the Taiwan Straights. F-35's could strike targets on the mainland. How would this scenario playout?


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Unread post04 Oct 2017, 07:07

I think that's a bunch of paranoia. Chinese leaders know that their legitimacy relies on strong economic growth, not starting a war with Taiwan.

They also don't have the sea lift capability to invade the island.

In a conflict their aim will be to isolate the island and force negotiation through economic pressure. They will expect to deter or engage coalition forces seeking to break the blockade. Any engagement will see engagement across all domains. It will be network on network. F35 will only be a single piece.

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