Ze Germans are coming.

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snypa777

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Unread post25 Feb 2016, 18:20

Looks like the Germans want to replace their Tornado`s in the 2020s. I think they can count out the UK.
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-bu ... many-14755

What options would they have?
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cantaz

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Unread post27 Feb 2016, 01:06

Jump on onboard with UK and France for an UCAV, if those 2 can hold it together. Money's on France walking out in a huff, again, which would make them too fickle to partner with for Germany. If France bails, see if UK wants to partner. Potential sticking point? Difference in power projection basing options. UK might want a STOVL UCAV for the QE, France might want a CATOBAR UCAV for the De Gaul, and Germany is decidedly land-oriented.

Manned or optionally manned option pretty much defaults to future F-35A variant. 6th gen won't be ready. All current production lines would've shuttered by then. F-35A is a suitable replacement for the Tornado and would address shortcoming of the Typhoons in the 2020+ timeframe, especially tranche 1 Typhoons that apparently can't take an AESA.

If the Germans can't find a partner, I don't see them going through with this alone as long as they maintain current level of commitment to military spending.

Wild card: a de-navalized UCLASS.
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durahawk

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Unread post27 Feb 2016, 03:22

I agree the most likely outcome is a UCAV, and possibly a collaboration with the British. I doubt that present day Germany has the gall to fund a 5th/6th generation manned fighter development, especially after the Eurofighter cost debacle. An F-35 procurement doesn't seem likely for the Luftwaffe at present, either, since they are in a struggle to even keep their Typhoons flying.

Post WWII Germany seems to be afraid of its own military, and funds it accordingly.
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uclass

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Unread post27 Feb 2016, 13:47

What's the point? They will just leave them unserviced like 80-90% of their current fleet.
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rheonomic

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Unread post27 Feb 2016, 17:35

I don't see the Germans having a political climate that would allow for procurement of VLO strike fighters/UCAVs.
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uclass

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Unread post27 Feb 2016, 19:19

rheonomic wrote:I don't see the Germans having a political climate that would allow for procurement of VLO strike fighters/UCAVs.

That's exactly why I, as a UK person, would be reluctant to pair up with them on any military venture after the way they neglected Typhoon development. Since the Cold War ended, they've neglected pretty much everything military in order to keep their deficit at zero. Add to that the cost of the immigration/refugee crisis, bailouts and weak Euro and it's going to be extremely difficult for them to commit to pushing out anything half decent.
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vilters

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Unread post28 Feb 2016, 02:22

Europe is in trouble. Not only Germany, but all of us, including the UK.
Financially, politically, and industrially we all try to protect our homeland, often by protecting individual borders, banks, and industrial know-how.

Working together like with Concorde will never work any more. Different times back then.

Eurofighter proved that even the best agreements fail.
------------
Together we are ever going to succeed in a future fighter or bomber initiative again.
And individually, we do no have the funds, nor the know-how any more.

Germany needs new "Tornado's". But : UK, Italy and Germany working together? Again?

UK is going F-35 and new boats.
Italy goes F-35 and is in a deep financial crisis.
Germany on its own? They could build an airframe; OK, but where are they gonna find an engine?
For an engine they"ll need France, UK, or the States.

France??? They'd rather continue to build on Rafales evolution.

Something unmanned? With the wildly divided European air space lay-out????? Where everybody has everything to say but lost in complete burocracy?
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element1loop

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Unread post28 Feb 2016, 03:28

uclass wrote: ... Since the Cold War ended, they've neglected pretty much everything military in order to keep their deficit at zero.


In fact Germany has spent (no pun intended) most of its time since the cold war in budget deficits. Click on 'MAX' button to get data since post cold war phase.

Germany Government Budget 1996-2016
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany ... ent-budget

Germany Government Spending to GDP 1991-2016
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany ... ing-to-gdp

Germany Government Debt to GDP 1995-2016
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany ... ebt-to-gdp


Despite the deficits and debt, they have grown, and remain in a viable range of financial capacity to fund their military properly. Keep in mind also, that this same budget payed for the absorption and integration of another complete half a Germany (East Germany) but still ended up with reasonably good numbers. So I doubt a bunch of scabby opportunist refos will impact its numbers as much as people think. More likely recession and banking crisis in another global die-back will be its consequential problem for years (like everyone else). Germany, as with so many countries, let things slide because it perceived low threat levels for decades to come, and was relying on the ability to see a real threat emerge, many years in advance.

It just turned out to not be so clear cut.
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snypa777

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Unread post28 Feb 2016, 06:47

cantaz wrote:Jump on onboard with UK and France for an UCAV, if those 2 can hold it together. Money's on France walking out in a huff, again, which would make them too fickle to partner with for Germany. If France bails, see if UK wants to partner. Potential sticking point? Difference in power projection basing options. UK might want a STOVL UCAV for the QE, France might want a CATOBAR UCAV for the De Gaul, and Germany is decidedly land-oriented.

Manned or optionally manned option pretty much defaults to future F-35A variant. 6th gen won't be ready. All current production lines would've shuttered by then. F-35A is a suitable replacement for the Tornado and would address shortcoming of the Typhoons in the 2020+ timeframe, especially tranche 1 Typhoons that apparently can't take an AESA.

If the Germans can't find a partner, I don't see them going through with this alone as long as they maintain current level of commitment to military spending.

Wild card: a de-navalized UCLASS.


Thanks for the reply, lots to think about here and I agree collaboration is a bitter pill on a high end military project in Europe right now.
Nobody is going to build a 5th gen fighter with Lo, in go it alone mode.

The UK is a non starter as far as i can see, we are basing our force on Typhoons and F-35, plus with the Franco-British UCAV -son of Taranis and Neuron- we really dont have anywhere else to go.
I am still bothered by collaborations on a complex fighter with Europe,
I remember the French being particularly stubborn about using the M88 to engine the EFA when it was obviously under powered with little thrust growth potential.
The EJ-200 smashed it out of the park. The French will also want a "navalised" version to fit with their ops.

I think Germany is just sounding people out to see if someone bites.
Their difficulty is when you look elsewhere in Europe there is no requirement for a Tornado replacement with another Tornado like aircraft, add Stealth and the costs will go ballistic but what do they want?
An F-35 with greater range and payload?.......

Italy are going F-35 like the UK, so they are out too. if the UK and Italy dont want any part of it then even a like for like Tornado replacement is a dead duck.
Eventually the UK is going to have to replace the Typhoon, we are talking 2030 time frame when the Typhoon will be a grandpappy.
If I were Germany I would SLEP my Tornado`s and wait, do the studies now to have a design or concept ready in the mean time.
"I may not agree with what you say....but I will defend to the death your right to say it".
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snypa777

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Unread post28 Feb 2016, 06:54

Right now Germany is actually pumping life back into the military, I think they are hosing down quite a few of their LEO 2s out of the warehouses and putting them back into the field for example.

They are pretty much about to bankroll an increase in defence spending to make the 2% GDP NATO commitment which is a huge increase for Germany.
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element1loop

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Unread post28 Feb 2016, 08:19

snypa777 wrote:Right now Germany is actually pumping life back into the military, I think they are hosing down quite a few of their LEO 2s out of the warehouses and putting them back into the field for example.
They are pretty much about to bankroll an increase in defence spending to make the 2% GDP NATO commitment which is a huge increase for Germany.


Last I looked their spending was ~1.2% of GDP so that would be a big deal. From your other reply above:

"An F-35 with greater range and payload?......."


The German AF desire for both more range and payload than an F-35 may be a bit misguided. F-35A has ~160% of the weapon payload overhead of an F-15E which may grow even higher with structural and engine upgrades next decade. It's clearly superior in available weapon payload after fuel allocations, to a Tornado, plus better EW, and designed to penetrate defended air space and find and ID own targets, as well as autonomous simultaneous ISR (as I'm sure you know). See here for what I mean re payload:

viewtopic.php?p=315736#p315736

Plus F-35A strike range with a couple of VLO standoff cruise missiles internal will be equally as impressive and much more so again with external carriage of another 4 VLO cruise, combined with tanking, for the pacified A2A and S2A context. I don't see how a Tornado could compare to that. Or don't the Germans realize this? Perhaps the language barrier and bad press that's been repeated about the F-35 prevents them seeing clearly what it is, and evaluating on merit? The F-35A will inevitably replace ~220 F-15E as they time-out and the capability the F-35A has will be superior. Is a Tornado superior to an F-15E? Perhaps the German air force should examine the numbers sans the presumptions and they may be pleasantly surprised.
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popcorn

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Unread post28 Feb 2016, 11:23

So what is going to accompany that German flying robot fleet? A Typhoon?
The US has stealthy 5Gens to lead their wolfpacks.
"When a fifth-generation fighter meets a fourth-generation fighter—the [latter] dies,”
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durahawk

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Unread post28 Feb 2016, 17:29

popcorn wrote:So what is going to accompany that German flying robot fleet? A Typhoon?
The US has stealthy 5Gens to lead their wolfpacks.


In their justification, they could just assume they won't be going to war without 5th gen equipped allies. Of course at the point you have to ask if your Air Force is making a meaningful contribution to the fight or just there for show.
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uclass

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Unread post29 Feb 2016, 21:49

element1loop wrote:
uclass wrote: ... Since the Cold War ended, they've neglected pretty much everything military in order to keep their deficit at zero.


In fact Germany has spent (no pun intended) most of its time since the cold war in budget deficits. Click on 'MAX' button to get data since post cold war phase.

Germany Government Budget 1996-2016
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany ... ent-budget

Germany Government Spending to GDP 1991-2016
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany ... ing-to-gdp

Germany Government Debt to GDP 1995-2016
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany ... ebt-to-gdp


Despite the deficits and debt, they have grown, and remain in a viable range of financial capacity to fund their military properly. Keep in mind also, that this same budget payed for the absorption and integration of another complete half a Germany (East Germany) but still ended up with reasonably good numbers. So I doubt a bunch of scabby opportunist refos will impact its numbers as much as people think. More likely recession and banking crisis in another global die-back will be its consequential problem for years (like everyone else). Germany, as with so many countries, let things slide because it perceived low threat levels for decades to come, and was relying on the ability to see a real threat emerge, many years in advance.

It just turned out to not be so clear cut.

You're looking at spending not budget/surplus/deficit.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany ... ent-budget

They have the money to fund their air force, they just never do.

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-bu ... ying-14549
https://www.rt.com/news/183120-germany- ... -military/

Scabby refos are just the latest mistake of Merkel.
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element1loop

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Unread post01 Mar 2016, 01:30

uclass wrote:You're looking at spending not budget/surplus/deficit.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany ... ent-budget


Incorrect, it's a record of surpluses and deficits in the German budget, if you don't think so read the first line of text above, where it clearly states:

"German budget surplus for 2015 came in at EUR19.4 billion or equivalent to 0.6 percent of GDP ..."


Now look at the graph plot value for 2015.
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