J-20 goes operational again

[mixelflick]

If they do proceed with acquiring large numbers of JC-31's, it will mark a significant departure from Russian thinking on such matters..

I think its fair to say JC-31 will be markedly inferior to the F-35, albeit it'll be much more survivable than their current Flanker derivatives. So they'd be putting more emphasis on stealth and likely BVR engagements, vs. Russia's roadmap of less stealth but instead more emphasis on "supermaneuverability". Clearly, their doctrine diverges from Russian thinking.

What will be interesting is whether or not foreign customers fall in line with that line of thinking. Closer to home, I'd agree that China would be better served with evolved J-20 models for OCA, DCA and as a maritime strike platform. Very doubtful the FC-31 will have the legs, especially given Chinese engine technology.

I'm also perplexed as to how beefing up the area behind the cockpit and around the engines somehow equals less drag/more aerodynamically efficient?

[weasel1962]

What facts and reality however show may be different from some of the conclusions stated.

The facts are:
1. China is not America. They think and do things differently.
2. China has more dual engine flankers than single engine J-10s.
3. China has more dual engine fighters (JH-7, flankers, J-8s) in 41 air brigades than single engine ones (J-10, J-7s) in 37 air brigades now.
4. J-20 is in production, J-31 is not.
5. SAC does not produce more fighters annually than CAC.
6. So even if J-31 starts production in the near future, J-20 numbers will always be more than J-31 unless one of 2 things occur.
a. J-20 production rate is less than J-31 production rate (no evidence to suggest this)
b. J-20 ends production earlier than J-31 (no evidence to suggest this will happen).

Seen from US perspective, J-31 should logically be in service and in huge numbers because that's how US does it. Seen from China perspective, 不一样.

[element1loop]

Given the record of the engines involved it's understandable that twins are preferred too.

[element1loop]

China’s navy ‘set to pick J-20 stealth jets for its next generation carriers’

Minnie Chan

Published: 11:00pm, 27 Aug, 2019
Updated: 11:49pm, 27 Aug, 2019

China’s military is likely to pick the country’s first active stealth fighter, the J-20, for its next generation aircraft carriers, according to military sources and a recent report on state media. The J-20, made by the Chengdu Aerospace Corporation (CAC), appears to have a won a head-to-head contest with the FC-31, a fighter made by another company which is still undergoing testing. A military insider told the South China Morning Post that the Central Military Commission, the People’s Liberation Army’s top decision-making body, now favoured adapting the J-20 for its new carriers.

“The Chengdu Aerospace Corporation will announce some new products, which will include a new version of their J-20. You can guess what type it will be,” the military insider, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject, said. ... A recent programme aired by the state broadcaster China Central Television also suggests the J-20 will be chosen. An episode of Military Documentary shown on August 16 reported how the PLA Navy was selecting candidates for pilot training and illustrated the feature with a mock-up of jets that looked like J-20s taking off from a carrier.

Ground-based J-20s – also known as Powerful Dragons – entered service with the PLA Air Force in 2017. Mass production of the stealth fighters began late last year as China stepped up its efforts to counter the deployment of American F-22s and F-35s in the Asia-Pacific region. ...

... “Both the J-20 and FC-31 have their advantages. The size of the J-20 is similar to the J-15 since both are powerful heavy fighters,” Song Zhongping, a military commentator for Hong Kong-based Phoenix Television, said. Song said the lighter FC-31 could be developed into a medium-sized carrier fighter that would complement the J-20 in future. But another military source close to the PLA Navy said it would be almost impossible to develop both aircraft over the next few years given the risk of an economic downturn as the trade war with the US continues to escalate. The source said China’s next generation aircraft carriers would be with equipped electromagnetic catapults similar to those used on the US Navy’s Ford-class supercarriers. ...

... “The key problem of the J-20 is not weight, but length. If it wants to be a carrier-based fighter jet, it needs to be made shorter.” Military insiders have previously said that CAC engineers are working to produce a shorter version of the J-20 that will work with the new launch system. ...

China’s navy plans to build at least four carrier battle groups by 2030, three of which will be active at any given time. ... the J-15 will remain in service for at least a decade, if not two. ...

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/militar ... generation

[Corsair1963]

Personally, I have my doubts....more like disinformation. Which, would be hardly surprising.


If, true then we should hear the J-31 has been canceled. Anyone want to take bets that doesn't happen?

[element1loop]

Personally, I have my doubts....more like disinformation. Which, would be hardly surprising.

If, true then we should hear the J-31 has been canceled. Anyone want to take bets that doesn't happen?

There are no aircraft beyond prototypes, with no procurement decisions and no orders.

There's nothing to cancel.

[Corsair1963]

Personally, I have my doubts....more like disinformation. Which, would be hardly surprising.

If, true then we should hear the J-31 has been canceled. Anyone want to take bets that doesn't happen?

There are no aircraft beyond prototypes, with no procurement decisions and no orders.

There's nothing to cancel.

What??? Their is a program in development and prototypes have been built and are flying. So, clearly there is something to cancel....

[element1loop]

Personally, I have my doubts....more like disinformation. Which, would be hardly surprising.

If, true then we should hear the J-31 has been canceled. Anyone want to take bets that doesn't happen?

There are no aircraft beyond prototypes, with no procurement decisions and no orders.

There's nothing to cancel.

What??? Their is a program in development and prototypes have been built and are flying. So, clearly there is something to cancel....

Don't hold your breath waiting for that.

[Corsair1963]

Don't hold your breath waiting for that.

So, you believe development of the J-31/FC-31 is over???

[element1loop]

Don't hold your breath waiting for that.

So, you believe development of the J-31/FC-31 is over???

The article does not say that. But it does say developing both is now out of the question due to developing trade war issues, so only one will evolve from here. So FC-31 will most likely get shelved (if it hasn't been already) and will likely be supplanted by a better design. And that new design thrust may involve a larger more PCA oriented multirole design to go with its stealth bomber development.

China's geography is big, its neighbors are big, it needs range, just like Russia does and the FC-31 is never going to provide it.

EDIT: note that I said design, not build or procure.

[Corsair1963]

So, you believe development of the J-31/FC-31 is over???

The article does not say that. But it does say developing both is now out of the question due to developing trade war issues, so only one will evolve from here. So FC-31 will most likely get shelved (if it hasn't been already) and will likely be supplanted by a better design. And that new design thrust may involve a larger more PCA oriented multirole design to go with its stealth bomber development.

China's geography is big, its neighbors are big, it needs range, just like Russia does and the FC-31 is never going to provide it.

EDIT: note that I said design, not build or procure.[/quote]


Sorry, speculation by the South China Morning Post hardly makes it fact.......

[madrat]

Give Trump credit. He's making Far East Asia safer by messing with China trade.

Who would have guessed the trade with China was fueling the instability in the region.

[sferrin]

I doubt we've seen the last of the J-31. And given they're already on their 3rd aircraft carrier (with the next likely to be at least Forrestal-sized) I don't know why they're so worried about the length of the J-20. It's much shorter than the A-3D and A-5. A bit longer than a Tomcat.

[weasel1962]

A bit of influence from the Indians who were claiming they could squeeze more planes with smaller aircraft onboard their CVs. The Chinese seem to be more inclined towards larger, more capable aircraft, which will mean fewer onboard their CVs.

In relation to the J-31, this will continue its function as an export fighter. The latest customer target being Turkey. A lot of marketing going on behind the scenes. Su-57 may escalate tensions and may turn some NATO members against Turkey. FC-31 sends a different message. SAC is also hungry for a launch customer. Getting Turkey would be a marketing coup. The FC-31 is also likely to be cheaper than the Su-57. Still need the Russians to supply the engines though but there's a lot more room for Turkish industry participation to the extent of local production a la JF-17.

[sferrin]

A bit of influence from the Indians who were claiming they could squeeze more planes with smaller aircraft onboard their CVs. The Chinese seem to be more inclined towards larger, more capable aircraft, which will mean fewer onboard their CVs.

In relation to the J-31, this will continue its function as an export fighter. The latest customer target being Turkey. A lot of marketing going on behind the scenes. Su-57 may escalate tensions and may turn some NATO members against Turkey. FC-31 sends a different message.

Not necessarily a better one.