J-20 goes operational again

[weasel1962]

China hasn't even built 600 Flankers or J-10s. It's highly doubtful they're planning on 600 J-20s. I'd be surprised if they even build 600 J-31s.

Fairly close though. 23 brigades of flankers, 15 brigades of J-10s. Its more than 600+ flankers in inventory but not all built. maybe a quarter bought/imported. More than a thousand flankers/J-10s in total.

Estimated build rates are ~30 each of flankers and J-10s annually. I wouldn't quote SCMP on J-20 build rates. At 48 a year, one should be spotting ~2 J-20 brigades a year. Its currently ~1 every 2-3 years so still LRIP rates. There's ~20+ brigades still equipped with obsolete aircraft.

[Corsair1963]

China hasn't even built 600 Flankers or J-10s. It's highly doubtful they're planning on 600 J-20s. I'd be surprised if they even build 600 J-31s.

While, I would be surprised to see China produce 600+ J-20's. I wouldn't be surprised if they do produce well over 600 J-31's. Otherwise, what is the point of the current military build up???

As the US and her Allies will operate large numbers of F-35's plus some modest numbers of F-22's, KFX's, etc.


So, is China going to give up all hope of even regional superiority in some respect or another???

[weasel1962]

No indication of J-31 entering service. The plane did its first flight in 2012. To date, there are only the same 2 prototypes 8 years after first flight. We'll see whether its still the same next year.

With the exception of the carrier air brigades at Huangdicun, the fighter force structure hasn't changed. Its generally replacement of existing obsolete aircraft. The PLAAF command structure has changed though which coincides with the military region re-alignment to theater commands. Pilot proficiency is likely to have improved since those flankers and J-10s have been in service for 20+ years.

What isn't reported much is the UAV/UCAV force structure. That has gone underneath the radar especially for a country that is now the leading exporter of armed/unarmed drones,

[wrightwing]

China hasn't even built 600 Flankers or J-10s. It's highly doubtful they're planning on 600 J-20s. I'd be surprised if they even build 600 J-31s.

While, I would be surprised to see China produce 600+ J-20's. I wouldn't be surprised if they do produce well over 600 J-31's. Otherwise, what is the point of the current military build up???

As the US and her Allies will operate large numbers of F-35's plus some modest numbers of F-22's, KFX's, etc.


So, is China going to give up all hope of even regional superiority in some respect or another???

China doesn't need the same force structure as the US, as their sphere of interest/operations is far more localized. They don't have to worry about deployments around the globe, as their primary interests are 1000 miles or closer. This allows their force structure to be more defensive in nature, rather than expeditionary.

[Corsair1963]

China doesn't need the same force structure as the US, as their sphere of interest/operations is far more localized. They don't have to worry about deployments around the globe, as their primary interests are 1000 miles or closer. This allows their force structure to be more defensive in nature, rather than expeditionary.

The PLA vast military is near useless without Air Superiority. Which, they have no hope of maintaining without a large number of Stealth Fighters. Even against weaker opponents.

Are you stating the PLA is about to drastically cut back on it's military ambitions???

[milosh]

China hasn't even built 600 Flankers or J-10s. It's highly doubtful they're planning on 600 J-20s. I'd be surprised if they even build 600 J-31s.

You didn't had Xi back then nor Chinese GDP of 2020s, so no wonder they didn't build lot of Flankers in past.

When we talk about J-20 we have numbers. Earlier I read they are planing 60 J-20 per year, and it is at least 48 J-20 per year:

CAC set up its fourth production line in 2019, each one with a capacity to make about one J-20 a month.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/militar ... ter-thrust

I really doubt they will run production for just couple of years, if we are talking about decade of production that is at least 480 J-20.

And then we have lighter stealth, will that be J-31 or something else I don't know but J-31 is close to became that.

[mixelflick]

China building hundreds or even thousands of Flankers and J-10C's etc. should make the US jump for joy. While our armed forces are flooded with F-35's (and those of our allies), those aircraft will be entirely outclassed. Because when you're dealing with an invisible enemy (or damn close to it), it's going to be real hard to land a punch, nevermind win the fight.

And let's not forget the US isn't just counting on thousands and thousands of F-35's. There are F-22's and nothing's close (or going to be) for likely another 10 years. Then we'll have 144 brand new F-15EX's, likely around 750 upgraded F-16's, and somewhere around 300 Super Hornets, and another what, 200 Super Dupers??

Never underestimate your enemy... but the way I'm looking at it, our "B" team just might be the equal of their "A" team.

[wrightwing]

China doesn't need the same force structure as the US, as their sphere of interest/operations is far more localized. They don't have to worry about deployments around the globe, as their primary interests are 1000 miles or closer. This allows their force structure to be more defensive in nature, rather than expeditionary.

The PLA vast military is near useless without Air Superiority. Which, they have no hope of maintaining without a large number of Stealth Fighters. Even against weaker opponents.

Are you stating the PLA is about to drastically cut back on it's military ambitions???

I said what I said (nowhere did I suggest cuts). China's force structure is based primarily around protecting it's interests in the South China Sea/Sea of Japan/Pacific Ocean, and in maintaining a localized A2AD capability. They don't have to worry about expeditionary forces, and maintaining air superiority in multiple theaters.

[jessmo112]

How many F-35As can the USAF surge?
How many will be Japans final number?
How many can the USN and marines surge?
Even though the USAF will have nearly 1800 F-35s
100 F-22s, 120 F-15EX. And hundreds of F-16s I would assume basing and tanker capability are bottlenecks.
Even regional superiority isnt a given know how every Chinese base within 200 miles of the coast will likely be hit. The Chinese should actually fear the Bomber fleet ratger than tactical fighters. The U S has enough long range bombing to send continuous waves of B-2s, BUFfs and Bones. It will get worse when the B-21 comes on line.
A2D2 is what we call in the states a rope a Dope strategy.
Guam, is just a tripwire. There is more than enough fire power to keep up pressure from The navy, expeditionary strike packages from the USAF, and bombers from conus.

[Corsair1963]

I said what I said (nowhere did I suggest cuts). China's force structure is based primarily around protecting it's interests in the South China Sea/Sea of Japan/Pacific Ocean, and in maintaining a localized A2AD capability. They don't have to worry about expeditionary forces, and maintaining air superiority in multiple theaters.

China will still have to produce several hundred Stealth Fighters. To counter the vast number of threats for multiple directions. This is easily supportable....

[boogieman]

I think it really depends on what contingency you are talking about. Defence of Taiwan? PRC grap for the Senkakus? Spratly's turned hot? At any rate the PLARF would be a significant problem - I suspect we would stand to lose more of our aircraft on the ground to Chinese BM and LACM than to their fighters of SAMs. Then there is the nuclear problem - if striking targets in mainland China is perceived to risk nuclear escalation, the RoE might not permit it, and this would really complicate things like OCA, SEAD and ISR delamination.

[Corsair1963]

I think it really depends on what contingency you are talking about. Defence of Taiwan? PRC grap for the Senkakus? Spratly's turned hot? At any rate the PLARF would be a significant problem - I suspect we would stand to lose more of our aircraft on the ground to Chinese BM and LACM than to their fighters of SAMs. Then there is the nuclear problem - if striking targets in mainland China is perceived to risk nuclear escalation, the RoE might not permit it, and this would really complicate things like OCA, SEAD and ISR delamination.

Nothing to really debate. As China has a vast military and she plans on acquiring a large number of Stealth Fighters and Bomber to protect it.


Regardless, if some care to believe that or not.....

[jessmo112]

I think that throwing the U.S. army into the mix will really complicate Chinese planning.
With enough ground launched missiles you can forget about completely shutting down the U S. In theater.
It was already going to be difficult
Hitting all of the allied bases in theatre, the 7th fleet Taiwan, and possibility SK.
Now they have to play wack a mole with U.S.
IRBMs or possibly ground launched TLAMS.
The Chinese dont have enough ballistic missiles to keep allied forces suppressed.

[jessmo112]

Here is another problem that the Chinese have
Firing solution:

1. Is there evidence that they have beaten or caught up with Lockheed in the sensors domain?

2. Can they simultaneously track and achieve firing solution on Multiple F-35s/22s?

3. Can they jam the hostile radars of the enemy?
Can they Jam or spoof LPI radar?
The F-35 did it way back in testing.

4. Has China demonstrated a real LPI capability?

If they cant track, and shoot at F-35s or 22s they may as well be 4th generation fighters.
Even the tankers and awacs will be harder to kill soon with anti-missile defenses.

[boogieman]

I don't think anyone here questions the fact that our jets would kick all kinds of PLAAF posterior in the air if push came to shove. As I said earlier, the Chinese answer to this problem is probably not to tackle us Battle of Britain style in the air, but to cripple our airpower by interdicting our airbases with BM and LACM launched from within China's own borders, while using the threat of nuclear escalation to deter attacks on mainland China itself.

I suspect our RoE may have a significant impact on the outcome since fighting China without being able to hit them on the mainland (while they shower the first and second island chains with DF-XX and CJ/DH-XX) would be like fighting with one arm tied behind our back.