Russian aircraft carrier accident (2018)

[mixelflick]

Wow...

You have to ask yourself: How big is the repair bill, and what does that get them? Looks like it'll be substantial, and the capability buy back is negligible. At the end of the day, they MIGHT have one functioning yet hopelessly obsolete aircraft carrier, which is factually accurate given it carries them more than launches/recovers them.

Just get out of the carrier business. It was a nice try but really, how far did they get? Not very. Rubles are much better put into submarines and anti-ship missiles/weapons. Nice try Russia but as the Chinese are about to find out, carrier ops are a risky and expensive proposition.

The vessel itself isn't easy to build, and operating it costs billions over its lifetime. Most onerous: The carrier air wing will essentially be built from scratch. Although they may opt for existing platforms like the MIg-29 and SU-27, modifying them for carrier ops might as well be creating a whole new aircraft. Back to the drawing board, and this too is uber expensive...

[weasel1962]

Agree China CVs is not cost-efficient but once China goes for it, they don’t hold back expenditure. Between China and Russia, China has more yuan to spend than Russia has rubles and a yuan goes further than a ruble.

The Indians tried to go cheap with the Mig-29K but ended up with an inefficient CV no 1 that cost more to modify than build. The IN then screwed themselves with CV no 2 that they can’t operationalise quickly (different from the 1st), not to mention the aircraft issues. China could have gone the same way with the minsk hull but didn’t.

China has spent a lot less on CV development. J-15 and CV blueprints probably came cheap from Ukraine (who’d gladly screw the Russkis when they can). CV no 1 came as a cheap hull but now works better than the Russki CV. J-15 internals are ported from J-11/J-16 program. The 2xKuz-class CVs buys them time to train CV crews and develop CATOBAR. CV no 2, is projected to take only 2 years from launch to commission. There’s a lot of risk and costs but China is managing both so far.

P.s. It may cost $2xx million to repair a DDG but its a lot cheaper at a Russian yard. But its an unbudgeted cost for a small purse.

[knowan]

The Kuznetsov is a propaganda weapon, not a practical weapon. In Putin's Russia, propaganda weapons get higher priority than practical weapons.

[weasel1962]

Try maintaining a bloated legacy armed forces a few times the size of the UK's on a budget less than the UK in US$ terms. Can't afford much else either even factoring in 1.6x PPP inflator, not even much fuel for CV ops. Propaganda (and GRU assassins) is cheap. Even NK affords that. No surprise. China's defense budget is more than 50% of US in PPP terms and continually cutting a bloated armed force whilst modernising with new equipment. China can afford the fuel (and brand new "copied" missiles that others have spent to develop).

[ricnunes]

J-15 is, on the other hand, under-estimated.

I swear that one day I'll understand what's all the fuzz behind the J-15...

Well I mean, IMO the J-15 is only a blatant Chinese copy/knock off of the Su-33. Hardly anything impressive or worth of "overestimating". At least that's my 2 cents anyway...


The J-15:

[popcorn]

Some people just seem impressed by the Floppy Fish.

[boilermaker]

J-15 is, on the other hand, under-estimated.

I swear that one day I'll understand what's all the fuzz behind the J-15...

Well I mean, IMO the J-15 is only a blatant Chinese copy/knock off of the Su-33. Hardly anything impressive or worth of "overestimating". At least that's my 2 cents anyway...


The J-15:

Well, apparently they are having problem with the J15. It does not work as well as the original SU-33. The engines suck too, which when you think about Russian engines being better, is a scary thought.

[boilermaker]

The Kuznetsov is a propaganda weapon, not a practical weapon. In Putin's Russia, propaganda weapons get higher priority than practical weapons.

That and the Russian Navy was at the origin of the Revolution and an uprising of hard core disciplined Navy communists against the Kremlin during the Cold War. The Russians do not want a strong navy for that reason. Taking care of their boomers is already a handful.

[Corsair1963]

J-15 should be just as capable as any other Flanker. So, until the F-35 enters widespread service. I would treat it with a good dose of respect....

[Corsair1963]

Russian Pride usually prevails. Yet, the Kuznetsov is becoming just one big money pit and one the Russian Navy can hardly afford. In addition selling her to China. Just puts another thorn in the side of the West. Which, I am sure Putin would appreciate....


So, while I don't consider it likely that Russia would indeed sell the Kuznetsov to China. I would hardly rule it out either.

[hythelday]

The only place they are selling it is some scrapyard. PRC has zero use for Kuznetsov as of now.

[Corsair1963]

The only place they are selling it is some scrapyard. PRC has zero use for Kuznetsov as of now.

What??? If, the PLAN did acquire the Kuznetsov her fleet would increase from 2 to 4 Aircraft Carriers! In addition an refitted Chinese Kuznetsov would be the sister ship of the Liaoning. (Type 001). While, being a close cousin to the Shandong. (Type 001A) Both will be followed by a third currently under construction. Which, is said to have both Catapults (maybe even EMALS) and Arresting Gear.

So, while Russian pride may prevent China from acquiring the Kuznetsov. To claim China has zero use is nothing short of "absurd"....

[hythelday]

It is absurd to claim that China, while moving from STOBAR to CATOBAR would want to buy 30+ Kuznetsov which is in need of a big overhaul. Even if their cats & traps tech does not work out and they need more carriers they'll spend more time and money refurbishing rather than just building a new Type 001A which is already localized & optimized for PLAN needs, rather than a 1143.5 that is falling apart.

[Corsair1963]

It is absurd to claim that China, while moving from STOBAR to CATOBAR would want to buy 30+ Kuznetsov which is in need of a big overhaul. Even if their cats & traps tech does not work out and they need more carriers they'll spend more time and money refurbishing rather than just building a new Type 001A which is already localized & optimized for PLAN needs, rather than a 1143.5 that is falling apart.

Your case is weak to say the least. First, the current Liaoning (ex-Varyag) was in far worse shape than the Kuznetsov is today. Second, China has considerable experience with the design now and what it would take to refit her. Third, the current Liaoning (CV-16) and Shandong (CV-17) are just entering service. So, they aren't going anywhere in the foreseeable future. So, adding a third ship of the same class. Would be a bonus not a "burden". Forth, acquiring the Kuznetsov would be a far cheaper and quicker option than building a new carrier from scratch. Plus, China can only afford to build one at a time.

In short acquiring the Kuznetsov would help China quickly close the gap with the US and at a modest price. While, offering considerable commonalty with the existing fleet.

[boilermaker]

J-15 should be just as capable as any other Flanker. So, until the F-35 enters widespread service. I would treat it with a good dose of respect....

IT should but it has teething problems

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