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Re: F-15X: USAF Seems Interested

Unread postPosted: 14 Sep 2020, 14:57
by sferrin
"F-35 Stealth Fighter Now Costs Less Than Boeing’s F-15EX"

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articl ... 77300.html

Re: F-15X: USAF Seems Interested

Unread postPosted: 14 Sep 2020, 18:23
by mixelflick
sferrin wrote:"F-35 Stealth Fighter Now Costs Less Than Boeing’s F-15EX"

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articl ... 77300.html


This isn't really news though, is it?

F-35 unit cost of $80 million (or less) has been known for some time. Maybe the CPFH reduction of 40% is?? In any case, it's not hard to see that the F-35 will ultimately be cheaper to purchase and operate.

And tons more combat capable :)

Re: F-15X: USAF Seems Interested

Unread postPosted: 20 Sep 2020, 21:06
by talkitron
Boeing has a new F-15EX website, with airplane art, a video, and other goodies.

https://www.boeing.com/defense/f-15ex/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=socialad&utm_campaign=f-15ex&utm_content=image&utm_bu=bds-defense&utm_topic=f-15ex&utm_audience=twitter-@boeingdefense&dclid=COTWvuq0-OsCFexawQodOywATA

Re: F-15X: USAF Seems Interested

Unread postPosted: 22 Sep 2020, 03:54
by Thumper3181
mixelflick wrote:
sferrin wrote:"F-35 Stealth Fighter Now Costs Less Than Boeing’s F-15EX"

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articl ... 77300.html


This isn't really news though, is it?

F-35 unit cost of $80 million (or less) has been known for some time. Maybe the CPFH reduction of 40% is?? In any case, it's not hard to see that the F-35 will ultimately be cheaper to purchase and operate.

And tons more combat capable :)


Its not even close to being cheaper to operate. In fact it costs about 5K per hour more to operate than the current F-15 and the new build F-15s will be even less to operate. Couple that with a much quicker ramp up for ANG pilots and maintainers and buying new F15s for the ANG is a no brainer.

Re: F-15X: USAF Seems Interested

Unread postPosted: 22 Sep 2020, 04:33
by marauder2048
Thumper3181 wrote:Its not even close to being cheaper to operate. In fact it costs about 5K per hour more to operate than the current F-15 and the new build F-15s will be even less to operate.


An utterly unproven assumption. They won't have steady state O&S costs for years.

Thumper3181 wrote: Couple that with a much quicker ramp up for ANG pilots and maintainers and buying new F15s for the ANG is a no brainer.

Also unproven. The slow roll OT&E they are doing tells a very different story.

Re: F-15X: USAF Seems Interested

Unread postPosted: 22 Sep 2020, 06:20
by Corsair1963
Thumper3181 wrote:
mixelflick wrote:
sferrin wrote:"F-35 Stealth Fighter Now Costs Less Than Boeing’s F-15EX"

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articl ... 77300.html


This isn't really news though, is it?

F-35 unit cost of $80 million (or less) has been known for some time. Maybe the CPFH reduction of 40% is?? In any case, it's not hard to see that the F-35 will ultimately be cheaper to purchase and operate.

And tons more combat capable :)


Its not even close to being cheaper to operate. In fact it costs about 5K per hour more to operate than the current F-15 and the new build F-15s will be even less to operate. Couple that with a much quicker ramp up for ANG pilots and maintainers and buying new F15s for the ANG is a no brainer.


The simple fact is the total cost of ownership. Is dropping every year and will shortly surpass the cost for the F-15EX. That according to the USAF themselves....

In addition buying the F-15's for the ANG is not a "no brainer". As the Florida Air National Guard are replacing their F-15C's with F-35A's not F-15EX's. Plus, sounds like even some USAF F-15C Units will get F-35A's as replacements for their Eagle too. At least at Lakenheath AFB in the UK. As a matter of fact don't be surprised if the Kadena (Okinawa, Japan) also do the same...

Re: F-15X: USAF Seems Interested

Unread postPosted: 22 Sep 2020, 15:59
by mixelflick
Those being front line units, makes it very telling...

Re: F-15X: USAF Seems Interested

Unread postPosted: 23 Sep 2020, 03:03
by Corsair1963
mixelflick wrote:Those being front line units, makes it very telling...




Clearly, as the 125th Fighter Wing of the Florida Air Nation Guard. Is assigned to NORAD and responsible for the Air Defense of the South Eastern US. It's also available to other combatant commanders for forward deployment in order to perform air superiority/air dominance missions in other theaters outside of the United States.


As for the F-15C Units at Lakenheath AFB (UK) and Kadena (Okinawa Japan). Their both the primary Air Defense Units facing Russia and China. Speaks volumes that they will be replaced by the F-35A not the F-15EX....

Re: F-15X: USAF Seems Interested

Unread postPosted: 24 Sep 2020, 17:33
by mixelflick
Corsair1963 wrote:
mixelflick wrote:Those being front line units, makes it very telling...




Clearly, as the 125th Fighter Wing of the Florida Air Nation Guard. Is assigned to NORAD and responsible for the Air Defense of the South Eastern US. It's also available to other combatant commanders for forward deployment in order to perform air superiority/air dominance missions in other theaters outside of the United States.

Similar situation for the F-15C's here in Westfield, MA. Although its still up in the air as to whether or not we'll get F-15EX's or F-35A's. The fact these units are also available to combat commanders outside the US, sort of kills the assertion we're only buying the EX for homeland defense missions. Whichever aircraft is picked needs to be able to mix it up with near peer adversaries anywhere in the world. I hope Boeing can work some magic into the old bird, as that's a much taller order than it used to be...

As for the F-15C Units at Lakenheath AFB (UK) and Kadena (Okinawa Japan). Their both the primary Air Defense Units facing Russia and China. Speaks volumes that they will be replaced by the F-35A not the F-15EX....


This is what I was referring to, thanks...

Re: F-15X: USAF Seems Interested

Unread postPosted: 25 Sep 2020, 04:26
by weasel1962
Production based on current orders is 12 a year. 1st 8 (FY20) goes to OT&E. FY 21/22 will go to 123 FS (Portland), deliveries from 2023. Next sqn to get F-15EX will only be 2025. AT this rate, don't think the numbers will go beyond 80 (3 sqns) by 2028.

Re: F-15X: USAF Seems Interested

Unread postPosted: 25 Sep 2020, 13:00
by mixelflick
weasel1962 wrote:Production based on current orders is 12 a year. 1st 8 (FY20) goes to OT&E. FY 21/22 will go to 123 FS (Portland), deliveries from 2023. Next sqn to get F-15EX will only be 2025. AT this rate, don't think the numbers will go beyond 80 (3 sqns) by 2028.


Budgetary constraints being what they are, that's certainly possible. At this point though, I think its more likely they go all in with a production run even bigger than planned. There's 'lotta love for the Eagle amongst USAF leadership, and like it or not they have a lot of pull. Looking at readiness, hypersonics, the AIM-260 and the industrial base I think they're going to use this as an opportunity not just to recapitalize the F-15C fleet, but even moreso as an F-15E "refresh".

Whether it's 144 aircraft or 350 (that's my best guess), the F-15E fleet will eventually need replacing. If it's 144 airframes, I say after they've relieved the F-15C fleet, (those units will eventually give way to F-35'A's) - freeing up F-15EX's to then start replacing Strike Eagles. A few F-15E's with lower flying hours may be retained, probably to train new Beagle drivers. Alternatively, they just might build another 200 or so F-15EX's to replace F-15E's on a 1:1 basis.

So that's my guess. 144 or so F-15EX for air defense/air superiority, and 200 to replace the F-15E fleet. We'll see where things are in a decade. Hope I'm still around :)

Re: F-15X: USAF Seems Interested

Unread postPosted: 03 Oct 2020, 08:09
by aaam
Corsair1963 wrote:
mixelflick wrote:Those being front line units, makes it very telling...




Clearly, as the 125th Fighter Wing of the Florida Air Nation Guard. Is assigned to NORAD and responsible for the Air Defense of the South Eastern US. It's also available to other combatant commanders for forward deployment in order to perform air superiority/air dominance missions in other theaters outside of the United States.


As for the F-15C Units at Lakenheath AFB (UK) and Kadena (Okinawa Japan). Their both the primary Air Defense Units facing Russia and China. Speaks volumes that they will be replaced by the F-35A not the F-15EX....


To be fair, when those decisions were made the F-15EX did not exist as an option. Let's see what happens now.

Re: F-15X: USAF Seems Interested

Unread postPosted: 03 Oct 2020, 09:06
by marauder2048
aaam wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:
mixelflick wrote:Those being front line units, makes it very telling...




Clearly, as the 125th Fighter Wing of the Florida Air Nation Guard. Is assigned to NORAD and responsible for the Air Defense of the South Eastern US. It's also available to other combatant commanders for forward deployment in order to perform air superiority/air dominance missions in other theaters outside of the United States.


As for the F-15C Units at Lakenheath AFB (UK) and Kadena (Okinawa Japan). Their both the primary Air Defense Units facing Russia and China. Speaks volumes that they will be replaced by the F-35A not the F-15EX....


To be fair, when those decisions were made the F-15EX did not exist as an option. Let's see what happens now.


The 125th Fighter Wing decision was made in August of 2020.

Re: F-15X: USAF Seems Interested

Unread postPosted: 06 Oct 2020, 01:32
by Corsair1963
"aaam"
To be fair, when those decisions were made the F-15EX did not exist as an option. Let's see what happens now.


"marauder2048"
The 125th Fighter Wing decision was made in August of 2020.



Yes, Florida has been fighting hard for sometime to acquire the F-35A to replace its F-15C's and never wanted the F-15EX.

Further, my guess is California (194 FS) and Louisiana (122nd) will get the F-35A. While, Massachusetts (131st) will get the F-15EX. This would split the types between each coast. Of course I am just speculating....

Also, as long as I am "speculating" I believe the USAF will replace their F-15C's at Lakenheath (UK) and Kadena (Okinawa Japan) with the F-35A too!

If, the F-15EX survives over the next couple of defense budgets. I would assume they would replace some of the A-10 and/or F-16 Squadrons.

Re: F-15X: USAF Seems Interested

Unread postPosted: 06 Oct 2020, 01:43
by weasel1962
marauder2048 wrote:
aaam wrote:To be fair, when those decisions were made the F-15EX did not exist as an option. Let's see what happens now.


The 125th Fighter Wing decision was made in August of 2020.


The 142 FW decision was also in Aug 2020. With only 1 sqn of F-15EXs coming in the next 2 years, I think replacing 2 squadrons with F-15EX at the same time is clearly not a preferred option.