SU-57: On hold for a decade

Military aircraft - Post cold war aircraft, including for example B-2, Gripen, F-18E/F Super Hornet, Rafale, and Typhoon.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post02 Sep 2019, 06:27

milosh wrote:
1. Su-30SM, Su-34 and Su-35 are build in similar rate and no one say they are failures. And don't forget you and others were sure Russia will cancel Su-57, you even write they will buy J-31 instead.


I never said the Flanker Series was a failure. Yet, they're quickly becoming obsolete. Nor, did I say Russia would cancel the Su-57. Though, I have suggested that Russia may buy the J-31 at some point. As with the failure of the Su-57. What other options does she have???

2. This is blow to program, I wouldn't say it isn't but India is in problems with less advanced programs so no wonder they iced FGFA, and to be clear Indian prime minister said they would buy PAK-FA but only after PAK-FA in build in decent numbers for RuAF, which is logical. UAE didn't want original F-16 block 60 (evolution of F-16XL) even though it was superb fighter (F-16XL is one of my favorite design) because USAF didn't want to buy two squadrons.


India no longer has "any" interest in the Su-57. They're just being polite.... :wink:

3.Well it isn't cheap for ordinary Russian customers. Su-35 export price is around 80 millions, Su-57 is at least 1.5x more expensive. Here I agree with you it was smart move to have backup option something like smaller two engined fighter aka J-31 but better design. MiG had excellent proposal for that, it is baby PAK-FA, there wouldn't be much work on airframe because aerodynimics is very similar and it would have good bay capacity, one Su-57 main bay and two Su-47 bays (each can carry R-77M) plus wing pods for R-74 but because Sukhoi have final word in UAC it didn't happen and only if they find foreign partner something like that could became reality.


Russia said it will spend $2.63 billion to acquire 76 Su-57's between now and 2028. Which, would equate to a unit price of less than $34 million per jet. Other sources have claimed in the $50 Million Range. Not that I believe either....

But still it doesn't make SU-57 bad fighter.


Again if sooo cheap and reasonably capable. Then why not a single buyer and so few domestic orders??? The US and her allies already have 600 Stealth Fighters! (186 F-22's and 420+ F-35's)

Common sense would suggest Russia should be in a race to acquire as many as possible in the coming decade. If, it has any hope of putting up a credible defense! You can't win on Land or Sea without "Air Superiority".
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southerncross

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Unread post02 Sep 2019, 10:39

milosh wrote:And don't forget you and others were sure Russia will cancel Su-57

20 years moving goals posts and still at it :D
you even write they will buy J-31 instead.

Hahaha, now that is an impressive show of foresight. I start to understand all that bitching because China is not taking it even for their carriers...
Corsair1963 wrote:India no longer has "any" interest in the Su-57. They're just being polite.... :wink:

At least you are brave enough to make bold prognoses against all odds, let us see how well this one ages. Indians have been checking MiG-35 and Su-57 thoroughly at this year's MAKS BTW.
Russia said it will spend $2.63 billion to acquire 76 Su-57's between now and 2028. Which, would equate to a unit price of less than $34 million per jet. Other sources have claimed in the $50 Million Range. Not that I believe either....

Russia didn't say a peep about the real price of the Su-57, those you mention were speculative figures from Kommersant. Almost everyone bases their estimations on the price of the Su-35 for the VKS, which is known to be below $30 million at the current exchanges... even if you don't believe it. That is what happens when you use your financial system to tank the currency of a country without external debt, you create a profit windfall on everything they export, boost their self reliance and make their internal production look ridiculously cheap compared to yours, literally like producing a Sukhoi for 20 or 25 million ans selling it for >80. Russia must be crying a river over the devaluation of the ruble.
Common sense would suggest Russia should be in a race to acquire as many as possible in the coming decade. If, it has any hope of putting up a credible defense!

There is always this elusive expectation of finally going to war with Russia. What do they have to defend against, any concrete war plans on your side? If not, Russia is not trying to conquer US any time soon, so you don't need to lose sleep over the "Russian Threat" ...at all.
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botsing

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Unread post02 Sep 2019, 11:14

southerncross wrote:There is always this elusive expectation of finally going to war with Russia. What do they have to defend against, any concrete war plans on your side? If not, Russia is not trying to conquer US any time soon, so you don't need to lose sleep over the "Russian Threat" ...at all.

What a dumb assertion.

You know about geopolitical strategies right? And things like global resources? Why do you think Russia is expanding in the arctic region? Why do you think Scandinavian countries are upping their defense bills? Why do you think the Baltic region joined NATO and is expanding their forces?

Really, what a dumb assertion and rabble-rousing.
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Unread post02 Sep 2019, 14:14

MiG had excellent proposal for that, it is baby PAK-FA, there wouldn't be much work on airframe because aerodynimics is very similar and it would have good bay capacity, one Su-57 main bay and two Su-47 bays (each can carry R-77M) plus wing pods for R-74 but because Sukhoi have final word in UAC it didn't happen and only if they find foreign partner something like that could became reality.


What are you alluding to here? That Sukhoi calls the shots within UAC?? If that's true, will Mig EVER get back into the game? I'm genuinely curious, because I wholeheartedly believe that having just one dominant defense contractor (cough, Lockheed Martin, cough) is NOT a good thing.

Competition is important. If Boeing doesn't up its stealth game shortly in the fighter arena, they'll be precious little competition. LM is a fine company that's broadly diversified, but competition brings out the best in both companies. If Sukhoi really is calling all the shots, it would explain why Mig has been relegated to putting lipstick on the Mig-29, and offering it up as a 5th gen airframe.

Pathetic IMO, and unbecoming of their former status as Russia's premiere fighter producer. They built absolute winners with their Mig-21, 25 and 31 series. Even today, the Mig-31 represents a very credible threat and has monster speed, range etc. unmatched by any western fighter. In fact, I wonder if any F-35 could catch one. Here's a hypothetical for you..

Russia decides to fly the Mig-31 at high speed/high altitude over Israel. Does Israel send up the F-35 to down it, or the F-15? We'll leave SAM's out of it for now, and just consider her interceptors..
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Unread post02 Sep 2019, 16:05

mixelflick wrote:Russia decides to fly the Mig-31 at high speed/high altitude over Israel. Does Israel send up the F-35 to down it, or the F-15? We'll leave SAM's out of it for now, and just consider her interceptors..

not much to consider. The F-15C is still a world class interceptor.
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Unread post02 Sep 2019, 18:31

@corsair1963

Then why not a single buyer and so few domestic orders?

Something, something sanctions. Something, something country relations. Something something threatening countries from purchasing russian military arms. Something along these lines.

You can't win on Land or Sea without "Air Superiority


But a with a decent amount of SAMs to hold off aerial attacks you can send conventional missiles flying to where that air superiority has to eventually land :shock: . Well I guess thats why we are paranoid about their missile projects having striking distances of more than 500kms violating a certain treaty. This comparison is no different than bringing a katana and you believe you got a higher chance to win a fight because you see someone with a shank but don't realize there is a revolver in his pocket until he goes john wayne on you.
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Unread post02 Sep 2019, 23:45

fidgetspinner wrote:Then why not a single buyer and so few domestic orders?


SAM's can't hold off Stealth Fighters and Bombers. So, your logic escapes me.
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Unread post03 Sep 2019, 00:03

Corsair1963 wrote:SAM's can't hold off Stealth Fighters and Bombers. So, your logic escapes me.


They can hold off strikes, until long range stand off missiles get launched their way when they prepare to land or start targeting ammunition or refuel stations. if you don't have air superiority how can you win on land or sea battles is what you said earlier right?
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Unread post03 Sep 2019, 00:14

southerncross wrote:

Hahaha, now that is an impressive show of foresight. I start to understand all that bitching because China is not taking it even for their carriers...


You have proof that China is not developing a Naval Version of the J-31 or that the project has been canceled??? :doh:


At least you are brave enough to make bold prognoses against all odds, let us see how well this one ages. Indians have been checking MiG-35 and Su-57 thoroughly at this year's MAKS BTW.


Again you care to provide an official source that states India is seriously considering acquiring the Su-57 or Mig-35??? LOL :lmao:



Russia didn't say a peep about the real price of the Su-57, those you mention were speculative figures from Kommersant. Almost everyone bases their estimations on the price of the Su-35 for the VKS, which is known to be below $30 million at the current exchanges... even if you don't believe it. That is what happens when you use your financial system to tank the currency of a country without external debt, you create a profit windfall on everything they export, boost their self reliance and make their internal production look ridiculously cheap compared to yours, literally like producing a Sukhoi for 20 or 25 million ans selling it for >80. Russia must be crying a river over the devaluation of the ruble.


I made it clear in my comments I didn't believe the Su-57 would cost $50 Million let alone $35 Million. Are you stating it will be expensive??? :wink:


There is always this elusive expectation of finally going to war with Russia. What do they have to defend against, any concrete war plans on your side? If not, Russia is not trying to conquer US any time soon, so you don't need to lose sleep over the "Russian Threat" ...at all.


Absurd....then why does Russia have one of the largest militaries on the planet??? Why is it aggressive towards it neighbors??? Why did it invade Georgia and Crimea/Ukraine??? (etc. etc. etc.)

You expect us to believe that if NATO didn't exist. That Russia wouldn't have forcibly taken over a number of Eastern European Countries. (Baltic States, Georgia, Ukraine, etc.) :roll:
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Unread post03 Sep 2019, 00:26

fidgetspinner wrote:SAM's can't hold off Stealth Fighters and Bombers. So, your logic escapes me???

They can hold off strikes, until long range stand off missiles get launched their way when they prepare to land or start targeting ammunition or refuel stations. if you don't have air superiority how can you win on land or sea battles is what you said earlier right?


No Advanced Air Defense Network currently on the planet can hold off a strike force of F-22's, F-35's, and B-2's. (and supporting forces)

Russia has "no hope" to winning on land or at sea. Without "Air Superiority". That has been proven countless times in the last 70+ years.

So, this idea that Russia is in no hurry or need to acquire first rate Stealth Fighters is "laughable".
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Unread post03 Sep 2019, 00:34

sprstdlyscottsmn wrote:
mixelflick wrote:
Russia decides to fly the Mig-31 at high speed/high altitude over Israel. Does Israel send up the F-35 to down it, or the F-15? We'll leave SAM's out of it for now, and just consider her interceptors..

not much to consider. The F-15C is still a world class interceptor.


Sorry, a combat loaded F-35A will eat the F-15C for lunch even in the interceptor role..... :wink:
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Unread post03 Sep 2019, 00:57

corsair1963 wrote:No Advanced Air Defense Network currently on the planet can hold off a strike force of F-22's, F-35's, and B-2's. (and supporting forces)

Russia has "no hope" to winning on land or at sea. Without "Air Superiority". That has been proven countless times in the last 70+ years.

So, this idea that Russia is in no hurry or need to acquire first rate Stealth Fighters is "laughable".


What if I told you that their entire defense network has more missiles than what an entire airforce is able to carry?"

A single launched missile for the cost of 1 million dollars can sink a carrier holding 100 F-35s. A single submarine can waste 40 vessels at sea from 1000kms away.

or the fact that aircrafts can be monitored by OTH radars and satellites and some one sent an iskander missile immediately to the runway of where the F-35 is to land or after it lands?

Of course this can work vice versa but who do you think in the end is wasting more money in a war on land or sea as in having multi-billion dollar spent equipment happens to be destroyed with ease? Having air superiority only applies to countries like syria or Libya.
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Unread post03 Sep 2019, 01:51

How cost-effective will it be to fire million dollar SAMs against a swarm of low cost killer drones?
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Unread post03 Sep 2019, 03:39

southerncross wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:India no longer has "any" interest in the Su-57. They're just being polite.... :wink:

At least you are brave enough to make bold prognoses against all odds, let us see how well this one ages. Indians have been checking MiG-35 and Su-57 thoroughly at this year's MAKS BTW.


Serious Checking. this is serious. They might even check twice.

Russia said it will spend $2.63 billion to acquire 76 Su-57's between now and 2028. Which, would equate to a unit price of less than $34 million per jet. Other sources have claimed in the $50 Million Range. Not that I believe either..../quote]
Russia didn't say a peep about the real price of the Su-57, those you mention were speculative figures from Kommersant. Almost everyone bases their estimations on the price of the Su-35 for the VKS, which is known to be below $30 million at the current exchanges... even if you don't believe it. That is what happens when you use your financial system to tank the currency of a country without external debt, you create a profit windfall on everything they export, boost their self reliance and make their internal production look ridiculously cheap compared to yours, literally like producing a Sukhoi for 20 or 25 million ans selling it for >80. Russia must be crying a river over the devaluation of the ruble.

Cheap as hell and they aren't buying them.

There is always this elusive expectation of finally going to war with Russia. What do they have to defend against, any concrete war plans on your side? If not, Russia is not trying to conquer US any time soon, so you don't need to lose sleep over the "Russian Threat" ...at all.

And yet, we've already had an Su-57 deployment to Syria...
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Unread post03 Sep 2019, 03:48

fidgetspinner wrote:
What if I told you that their entire defense network has more missiles than what an entire airforce is able to carry?"

A single launched missile for the cost of 1 million dollars can sink a carrier holding 100 F-35s. A single submarine can waste 40 vessels at sea from 1000kms away.

or the fact that aircrafts can be monitored by OTH radars and satellites and some one sent an iskander missile immediately to the runway of where the F-35 is to land or after it lands?

Of course this can work vice versa but who do you think in the end is wasting more money in a war on land or sea as in having multi-billion dollar spent equipment happens to be destroyed with ease? Having air superiority only applies to countries like syria or Libya.


I'd tell you they would lose, and so would the Russians.

This is as silly as saying "What if I told you the Germans had more anti tank rounds than the Russians had tanks?" or that their "V-2 missiles could take out whole runways? "

Its a bit more complicated than that (and thats without getting into the old "how do they fight things they can't see but lets keep this sporting), and this "asymmetrical conventional" warfare doesn't typically turn out too well for the defense. We've seen that repeated many times and the Russians know first hand as well. Maneuver warfare is a b*t*h. moreover you need aircraft to take the offensive, to control the air to control the battle space, to deploy and project power overseas. There just any real substitute for a fighter/bomber just yet. Which is one of the reasons the Russians are bothering with airplanes still despite their SAMs and Iskander.

Maybe they like wasting money. I don't know.

The bottom line is that airplanes will pick and choose the when and where, theyre faster than Mobile SAMs, they deploy and rain down hellfire, and SAMS are primarily a DEFENSIVE weapon. They don't take the initiative, they don't destroy bridges and tanks and and ammo depots (filled with SAMs) they don't perform recon, they can't be everywhere, they don't support troops directly on the ground, they shoot down airplanes (And are seriously deadly, don't get me wrong-- which is why smart air forces don't underestimate them) but they are one trick ponies, and ground forces relying on them to win the day have been proven horrifyingly wrong the last few decades. Yes SAMs kill airplanes, no one gets away clean. People are still cheering about the F-117 they downed, and leaving the part where they got annihilated out, but I guess you have to pull one good thing out of something that unbelievably lopsided. Once the air defenses are handled,suppressed, starved, jammed etc.. and with no air force, the ground and sea forces are at the mercy of the airplane, which again doesn't recognize things like mountains or rivers and is able to repositionat the speed of sound and adapt to a fluid battlefield, and reattack within hours. We've seen how that plays out for the ground forces time and time again.

Theres things I could share that I'm not quite comfortable sharing in some cases, but suffice it to say the US understands how to cripple a lot of the critical reconnaissance and communication efforts that leave enemies blind and dumb cut off and surrounded. And this before me even explaining why Stealth aircraft exist regarding the threat of SAMs.

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Last edited by XanderCrews on 03 Sep 2019, 04:11, edited 3 times in total.
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