J-20 goes operational

[madrat]

They could build 3,000 J-31 and it wouldn't be as destabilizing as 1,000 J-20.

[sferrin]

They could build 3,000 J-31 and it wouldn't be as destabilizing as 1,000 J-20.

Has anybody said it would be? China won't be selling the J-20 to anybody though. They might be willing to sell the J-31 to others. See F-22/F-35.

[Corsair1963]

They could build 3,000 J-31 and it wouldn't be as destabilizing as 1,000 J-20.

We've seen nothing to suggest the J-20 is superior to the J-31 or at very least not markedly so. Also, considering that the J-31 is being developed much later than the former. Odds are good that they learned a number of valuable lessons from the development of the former. Which, they likely would incorporate into production J-31's.

[Corsair1963]

Agreed. But they are going to have to hustle. More and more F-35's roll off the assembly lines every day and are beginning to proliferate. There will always be nations that can't get it however, and its here the J-31 will excel. Of course, that all assumes the Chinese can 1.) Get it to work and, 2.) Offer it at a reasonable price.

Considering the difficulties we had developing the F-35, it could be another decade (or 2) getting the J-31 into the same ballpark. And then they'll have to determine how to not compromise its stealth secrets. Interesting quandry, given the Chinese are usually the ones doing the stealing!

Honestly, it's perplexing to hear of all of this talk about the J-20. As the core Stealth Fighter for the PLAAF and PLAN will be the J-31. Which, will have to be produced in large numbers. If, the Chinese have any hope of competing with the US and her vast network of Allies.

[wrightwing]

There's nothing to suggest that the J-31 is superior to the J-20, either. The J-20 is the high, of the high/low mix. How many of each will be built, is anybody's guess. It won't be anywhere near F-35 numbers, though.

[Corsair1963]

There's nothing to suggest that the J-31 is superior to the J-20, either. The J-20 is the high, of the high/low mix. How many of each will be built, is anybody's guess. It won't be anywhere near F-35 numbers, though.

Never said the J-20 and/or J-31 would equal the numbers of F-35 built. Yet, how many Stealth Fighters do you think China will need for the PLAAF and PLAN in the next 10-20 years???

[wrightwing]

There's nothing to suggest that the J-31 is superior to the J-20, either. The J-20 is the high, of the high/low mix. How many of each will be built, is anybody's guess. It won't be anywhere near F-35 numbers, though.

Never said the J-20 and/or J-31 would equal the numbers of F-35 built. Yet, how many Stealth Fighters do you think China will need for the PLAAF and PLAN in the next 10-20 years???

Not nearly as many as you think. Their requirements are far more limited, as they aren't trying to develop a global expeditionary force. Homeland defense, and regional force projection are their prime concerns. J-10Cs, J-15s, and J-16s will provide the lion's share of TACAIR, with J-20/31 providing the high mix.

[Corsair1963]

Not nearly as many as you think. Their requirements are far more limited, as they aren't trying to develop a global expeditionary force. Homeland defense, and regional force projection are their prime concerns. J-10Cs, J-15s, and J-16s will provide the lion's share of TACAIR, with J-20/31 providing the high mix.

I think China isn't stupid and realizes that it will have to face vast numbers of F-35's. From the US and her Allies. (Australia, Japan, South Korea, US, and likely Singapore and possibly UK. Who knows maybe India at some point?) So, while 4th Generation Types like the J-10, J-11, J-15, etc. would be adequate short-term. Their usefulness will drop like a rock post 2030.

[wrightwing]

I guess that's why they're buying them in sizeable quantities, to retire them in 10 to 12 years....

[Corsair1963]

I guess that's why they're buying them in sizeable quantities, to retire them in 10 to 12 years....

You have a source that supports the PLAAF and/or PLAN are buying J-10's, J-15's, and J-16's in sizeable numbers???

[tphuang]

J-10 and flanker variants will be in service for a long time. My guess at least another 25 years. They still have J-7/8s right now. They will be around long after F-15/16 retires from USAF/USN. Until they can get the 5th gen technology including engine mature, J-10C and J-16 will be the backbone of PLAAF.

Remember, IAF and southeast Asians countries will still be without 5th generation aircraft for at least the next 10 years. And even after that, they will be mostly 3rd or 4th gen aircraft. RuAF will be second or third rate going forward. J-10C and J-16 are more than adequate to face them. And no, I don't think PLAAF is too concerned about a few Su-57s and a bunch of su-35s across the border.

As for J-20 vs J-31, I think PLAAF considers J-20 to be the more capable platform. As for how many they will build, that's hard to say. Building a large number also takes a very modern industrial base, which they are still working toward. They may want to build over 100 5th gen aircraft a year, but they simply don't have the ability to do so right now. They may want to add 100 J-20s into service a year right now, but the air force probably isn't ready to take in more than 20 or 30 this year as they are still figuring out how to use it and maintain it.

[weasel1962]

Considering that F-16s will fly to 2048 and F-15s probably longer, I doubt J-7/8s will last that long even if there is still several air brigades sighted at present (~17xJ-7 Air Brigades and 7xJ-8 Air Brigades). At an annual replacement rate of 2-3 brigades currently, it is unlikely J-7/J-8s will see service past mid-2030s. That is even though the last few batches of J-7s still have plenty of service life left in them.

There are "only" 15 x J-10 air brigades, 4 x air brigades with J-16s and the single J-15 CAW sighted so far. I will leave the subjective definition of "sizeable" to others to define.

The above do not count training units.

At present, there are only 2 x J-31 prototypes with a first flight in Oct 2012. There are 2 x J-20 air brigades today. The J-20's first flight was in Jan 2011. There were at least 10 pre-production J-20s. J-10 prototypes also saw similar numbers. When J-31 prototypes reach those numbers, serial production can be expected to follow. Until then, talk of J-31 in service numbers above 0 is pure speculation.

[Corsair1963]

Sure you could see F-16's, J-10's, J-15's, etc. etc. out to the 2040's. Yet, only in very modest numbers for sure....


As for China I doubt very much they are going to limit production of the J-20/J-31 to modest numbers. While, the US and her allies produce F-35's in the "thousands".

[weasel1962]

J-10 and flanker variants will be in service for a long time.

Service life is a question mark. Russian built Su-27s in PLAAF service have been retired around the 20+ year mark. Chinese-built ones may have a longer service life but not sure whether Russian supplied engines especially for the earlier batches will last. Same goes for the J-10.

[wrightwing]

Sure you could see F-16's, J-10's, J-15's, etc. etc. out to the 2040's. Yet, only in very modest numbers for sure....


As for China I doubt very much they are going to limit production of the J-20/J-31 to modest numbers. While, the US and her allies produce F-35's in the "thousands".

That's circular reasoning. Surely they wouldn't want to be outnumbered in heavy bombers, carriers, attack/ballistic missile subs, main battle tanks, etc.... so they must be planning to approach parity, right?